Modeling the threats of dangerous weather conditions using the theory of blurred sets

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 187-200
Author(s):  
D. A. Berezhnoy ◽  
◽  
S. Yu. Butuzov ◽  
O. A. Kosorukov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Threat Level ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Theory Of Fuzzy Sets

Introduction. The author's methods of forecasting the threat of emergencies caused by hazardous meteorological conditions are considered to ensure the required level of safety, including on the territory of the Republic of Crimea. Research objective: increasing the efficiency of the warning system and informing the population about emergency situations caused by hazardous weather conditions. Methods. To solve the problem of decision-making when predicting emergency situations caused by hazardous meteorological conditions, the methods of the theory of fuzzy sets are used. The article presents a method for determining the criteria, with the help of which it is possible to establish exactly whether the presented object belongs to the corresponding class. To implement the goal of timely informing and alerting the population and services of the Unified State System for the Prevention and Response of Emergencies (RSChS), lowering the entropy of an adequate assessment of the situation and taking effective measures to preserve the life and health of people, it is proposed to rank the criteria by wind speed, precipitation and air temperature , according to the levels of danger, indicating specific preventive measures for the population, management bodies and RSChS services. Results and discussion. A method is presented for determining the criteria by which it is possible to establish exactly whether the presented object belongs to the appropriate class. The method allows you to determine to what level of danger the situation can go. Conclusions. As the analysis has shown, the likelihood of the occurrence of a yellow level of threat during the year is practically the same. At the same time, the likelihood of a deterioration in the situation with the already emerging yellow threat level in the autumn-winter period is slightly higher. When the wind speed reaches the upper boundaries of the yellow level of threat in the autumn-winter period, the situation worsens twice as often than with the same values of the indicators in the spring-summer period. Key words: meteorological conditions, forecasting, fuzzy set theory, decision support system.

scholarly journals The cyclonic activity and frequency of dangerous weather phenomena over the territory of Belarus

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-93
Author(s):  
Katsiaryna M. Sumak ◽  
Inna G. Semenova
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Atmospheric Fronts ◽  
Significant Damage ◽  
Wet Snow ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

In recent decades in the world, and in the Republic of Belarus in particular, the question of the impact of weather conditions on the development of sectors of the economy and life of the population has become acute. The sudden changes in weather conditions can lead to adverse and dangerous weather phenomena that cause significant damage to the country’s economy. This paper examines the frequency of dangerous weather phenomena in cyclones of different trajectories that moved through the territory of the Republic of Belarus during the period of 1995–2015. It is identified that southern and western cyclones caused dangerous weather events over the territory of Belarus. The interannual and seasonal frequency of cyclones causing dangerous weather phenomena in Belarus was analyzed. It is shown that the largest number of southern and western cyclones was characteristic mainly for the summer period, as well as the transitional seasons of the year, therefore the dangerous weather phenomena were associated mainly with the development of severe convection on atmospheric fronts. Such phenomena as very heavy rain, snowfall and wind had the highest frequency in cyclones, as in southern as western trajectories. The share of strong sticking of wet snow and large hail were isolated cases and these phenomena were recorded locally over the territory of country.

scholarly journals FLUKTUASI DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE TERKAIT VARIABILITAS CUACA DI KLATEN, INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-60
Author(s):  
Tri Baskoro Tunggul Satoto ◽  
Nur Alvira Pascawati ◽  
Ajib Diptyanusa ◽  
Luthfan Lazuardi ◽  
Alvin Harjono Dwiputro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Preventive Actions

Klaten Regency is one of the Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) endemic areas in Central Java. Weather conditions can have an impact on vector dynamics, dengue virus development, and interactions between mosquitoes and humans. The purpose of this study was to determine the pattern of dengue transmission in twenty-six sub-districts in Klaten Regency based on wind speed, specific humidity, rainfall, and temperature. This study was conducted using a retrospective cohort design based on Giovanni-National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) data during the last three years (2016-2018). The independent variables in this study were: wind speed (m/s), specific humidity (g/kg), rainfall (mm/month), and temperature (oC), while the dependent variable was the number of dengue cases in 26 sub-districts in 2014-2014. 2016. Data were analyzed based on monthly patterns and regional patterns using correlation and regression tests with =0.05. The results showed that a total of 1,434 dengue cases were reported during this time period. Weather data analysis revealed that DHF fluctuations were correlated with wind speed in four sub-districts, specific humidity in seven sub-districts, rainfall in three sub-districts, and temperature in three sub-districts. Specific humidity variation plays a role of 21.8% as the dominant factor that can explain the case of DHF in the Klaten Regency. The results of this study can be applied to mitigate the transmission of DHF by determining preventive actions according to place and time and increasing the early warning system to deal with the threat of DHF outbreaks. Abstrak  Kabupaten Klaten adalah salah satu daerah endemis Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Jawa Tengah. Kondisi cuaca dapat berdampak pada dinamika vektor, perkembangan virus dengue, dan interaksi antara nyamuk dengan manusia. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pola penularan DBD di dua puluh enam kecamatan yang berada di Kabupaten Klaten berdasarkan kecepatan angin, kelembaban spesifik, curah hujan dan suhu. Penelitian ini dilakukan menggunakan desain kohort retrospektif berdasarkan pada data Giovanni-National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) selama 3 tahun terakhir (2016-2018). Variabel bebas dalam penelitian ini adalah: kecepatan angin (m/s), kelembaban spesifik (g/kg), curah hujan (mm/bulan) dan suhu (oC), sedangkan variabel terikat adalah jumlah kasus DBD di 26 kecamatan pada tahun 2014-2016. Data dianalisis berdasarkan pola bulanan dan pola wilayah dengan menggunakan uji korelasi dan regresi dengan α=0,05. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa  total sebanyak 1.434 kasus dengue dilaporkan selama periode waktu tersebut. Analisis data cuaca mengungkapkan bahwa fluktuasi DBD berkorelasi dengan kecepatan angin di empat kecamatan, kelembaban spesifik di tujuh kecamatan, curah hujan di tiga kecamatan dan suhu di tiga kecamatan. Variasi kelembaban spesifik berperan sebesar 21,8% sebagai faktor dominan yang dapat menjelaskan kasus DBD di Kabupaten Klaten.  Hasil studi ini dapat diaplikasikan untuk mitigasi penularan DBD dengan menentukan tidakan pencegahan menurut tempat dan waktu serta meningkatkan sistem kewaspadaan dini untuk menghadapi ancaman KLB DBD.

scholarly journals The Analysis of Meteorological Conditions for Icing on UHV Transmission Lines in Southeast Guizhou in 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 261 ◽  
pp. 01066
Author(s):  
Hourong Zhang ◽  
Shiqi Zhang ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Hao Chai
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Transmission Lines ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Air Pressure ◽  
Observation System ◽  
Northerly Wind ◽  
Meteorological Elements ◽  
The Relationship

Using ERA5 reanalysis data of ECMWF and the ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission line icing observation system to analyze the meteorological conditions of conductor icing in Guizhou from January 24 to 29, 2018, Results show: The weather conditions for this icing event are that the temperature drops below 0°C, there is weak rainfall, and the humidity is generally between 95% and 100%; the direction is mainly northerly wind, with wind speed of 2~6m/s; the air pressure rises. The meteorological elements that are more relevant to icing are environmental temperature, air pressure, and precipitation. The relationship with wind speed and relative humidity is small.

Irrigation regime and water consumption of potatoes in the Republic of Bashkortostan, depending on the reclamation condition of lands

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (6) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Guzel Gumerova ◽  
Georgiy Gulyuk ◽  
Dmitry Kucher ◽  
Anatoly Shuravilin ◽  
Elena Piven
Keyword(s):  
Water Consumption ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Total Water Consumption ◽  
Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽  
Irrigated Lands ◽  
The Republic

Data of long-term researches (2015–2018) in southern forest-steppe zone of the Republic of Bashkortostan, is justified theoretically and experimentally the mode of irrigation of potatoes on leached chernozems of unsatisfactory, satisfactory and good ameliorative condition of irrigated lands. For the growing periods of potatoes with different heat and moisture supply, the number of watering, the timing of their implementation, irrigation and irrigation norms are established. On lands with unsatisfactory meliorative state the number of irrigation depending on weather conditions of potato vegetation period varied from 0 to 3 (1.5 on average) with average irrigation norm – 990 m3/ha. With satisfactory meliorative state of lands the number of irrigation on average increased from 0 to 4 (2.3 on average) with irrigation norm – 1305 m3/ha. On lands with good meliorative state the number of irrigation was the highest – from 1 to 5 (3 on average) with average irrigation irrigation norm is 1653 m3/ha. It was noted that in the dry periods of potato vegetation the greatest number of watering was carried out (3–5 watering), and in the wet periods (2017) watering was not carried out except for the area with a good reclamation state, where only one irrigation was carried out by the norm of 550 m3/ha. Water consumption of potato was studied in dynamics as a whole during the growing season and the months of the growing season depending on weather conditions of vegetation period and land reclamation condition of irrigated lands, as well as in the control (without irrigation). The lowest total water consumption was in the area without irrigation and averaged 226.8 mm. In irrigated areas, its values increased to 319-353.4 mm. The average daily water consumption varied from 2.12 to 3.3 mm. The highest rates of potato water consumption were observed in June and July, and the lowest – in May and August. In the total water consumption of potatoes on the site without irrigation, the largest share was occupied by atmospheric precipitation and in addition to them the arrival of moisture from the soil. Irrigation water was used in irrigated areas along with precipitation, the share of which was 30.2–46.1 %.

Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Coccia
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Meteorological Condition ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Critical Threshold ◽  
Viral Infectivity ◽  
Low Wind Speed

BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is viral infection that generates a severe acute respiratory syndrome with serious pneumonia that may result in progressive respiratory failure and death. OBJECTIVE This study has two goals. The first is to explain the main factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 that is generating a high level of deaths. The second is to suggest a strategy to cope with future epidemic threats with of accelerated viral infectivity in society. METHODS Correlation and regression analyses on on data of N=55 Italian province capitals, and data of infected individuals at as of April 2020. RESULTS The main results are: o The accelerate and vast diffusion of COVID-19 in North Italy has a high association with air pollution. o Hinterland cities have average days of exceeding the limits set for PM10 (particulate matter 10 micrometers or less in diameter) equal to 80 days, and an average number of infected more than 2,000 individuals as of April 1st, 2020, coastal cities have days of exceeding the limits set for PM10 equal to 60 days and have about 700 infected in average. o Cities that average number of 125 days exceeding the limits set for PM10, last year, they have an average number of infected individual higher than 3,200 units, whereas cities having less than 100 days (average number of 48 days) exceeding the limits set for PM10, they have an average number of about 900 infected individuals. o The results reveal that accelerated transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in specific environments is due to two mechanisms given by: air pollution-to-human transmission and human-to-human transmission; in particular, the mechanisms of air pollution-to-human transmission play a critical role rather than human-to-human transmission. o The finding here suggests that to minimize future epidemic similar to COVID-19, the max number of days per year in which cities can exceed the limits set for PM10 or for ozone, considering their meteorological condition, is less than 50 days. After this critical threshold, the analytical output here suggests that environmental inconsistencies because of the combination between air pollution and meteorological conditions (with high moisture%, low wind speed and fog) trigger a take-off of viral infectivity (accelerated epidemic diffusion) with damages for health of population, economy and society. CONCLUSIONS Considering the complex interaction between air pollution, meteorological conditions and biological characteristics of viral infectivity, lessons learned for COVID-19 have to be applied for a proactive socioeconomic strategy to cope with future epidemics, especially an environmental policy based on reduction of air pollution mainly in hinterland zones of countries, having low wind speed, high percentage of moisture and fog that create an environment that can damage immune system of people and foster a fast transmission of viral infectivity similar to the COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL not applicable

scholarly journals Influence of Meteorological Conditions and Aerosol Properties on the COVID-19 Contamination of the Population in Coastal and Continental Areas in France: Study of Offshore and Onshore Winds

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 523
Author(s):  
Jacques Piazzola ◽  
William Bruch ◽  
Christelle Desnues ◽  
Philippe Parent ◽  
Christophe Yohia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Sea Spray ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Virus Transport ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Viral Particles ◽  
The Social ◽  
Aerosol Properties

Human behaviors probably represent the most important causes of the SARS-Cov-2 virus propagation. However, the role of virus transport by aerosols—and therefore the influence of atmospheric conditions (temperature, humidity, type and concentration of aerosols)—on the spread of the epidemic remains an open and still debated question. This work aims to study whether or not the meteorological conditions related to the different aerosol properties in continental and coastal urbanized areas might influence the atmospheric transport of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. Our analysis focuses on the lockdown period to reduce the differences in the social behavior and highlight those of the weather conditions. As an example, we investigated the contamination cases during March 2020 in two specific French areas located in both continental and coastal areas with regard to the meteorological conditions and the corresponding aerosol properties, the optical depth (AOD) and the Angstrom exponent provided by the AERONET network. The results show that the analysis of aerosol ground-based data can be of interest to assess a virus survey. We found that moderate to strong onshore winds occurring in coastal regions and inducing humid environment and large sea-spray production episodes coincides with smaller COVID-19 contamination rates. We assume that the coagulation of SARS-Cov-2 viral particles with hygroscopic salty sea-spray aerosols might tend to inhibit its viral infectivity via possible reaction with NaCl, especially in high relative humidity environments typical of maritime sites.

The Message of “APEC Blue” for the Prevention and Control of Urban Air Pollution in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 1650027
Author(s):  
Rong ZHU
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Urban Air Pollution ◽  
Pollution Prevention ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Atmospheric Pollutant ◽  
And Control

Analysis of the meteorological conditions for atmospheric pollutant dispersion before and after the 2014 APEC meeting shows very significant effects of air pollution prevention and control measures on the meeting. It proves that the proper measures to control air pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region are: establishing a regional emergency response mechanism to reduce emissions in the case of heavy air pollution, strengthening the local emergency response measures for emission reduction, and enhancing the early warning system for weather conditions conducive to heavy air pollution.

scholarly journals An Efficient Prediction Model for Water Discharge in Schoharie Creek, NY

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katerina G. Tsakiri ◽  
Antonios E. Marsellos ◽  
Igor G. Zurbenko
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Statistical Methodology ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Efficient Prediction ◽  
Climatic Time Series

Flooding normally occurs during periods of excessive precipitation or thawing in the winter period (ice jam). Flooding is typically accompanied by an increase in river discharge. This paper presents a statistical model for the prediction and explanation of the water discharge time series using an example from the Schoharie Creek, New York (one of the principal tributaries of the Mohawk River). It is developed with a view to wider application in similar water basins. In this study a statistical methodology for the decomposition of the time series is used. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter is used for the decomposition of the hydrological and climatic time series into the seasonal and the long and the short term component. We analyze the time series of the water discharge by using a summer and a winter model. The explanation of the water discharge has been improved up to 81%. The results show that as water discharge increases in the long term then the water table replenishes, and in the seasonal term it depletes. In the short term, the groundwater drops during the winter period, and it rises during the summer period. This methodology can be applied for the prediction of the water discharge at multiple sites.

The Utility Model of Early Warning System for Train Operation

2013 ◽  
Vol 325-326 ◽  
pp. 1249-1252
Author(s):  
Shi Yi
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Vibration Sensor ◽  
Utility Model ◽  
Photoelectric Detection ◽  
Train Operation

The utility model of early warning system for train operation detects and analysis all the information from the weather detection, photoelectric detection, vibration sensor and signal of the tracks comprehensively. It determines the position of the train by the weighted coefficients and controls the interval signal and locomotive signal accurately. This system should be barely affected by the weather conditions, the results detected by this system are reliable, and it can ensure the train operates safely.

Statistical Analysis of Weather Effects on PM2.5

2012 ◽  
Vol 610-613 ◽  
pp. 1033-1040
Author(s):  
Wei Dai ◽  
Jia Qi Gao ◽  
Bo Wang ◽  
Feng Ouyang
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Statistical Distribution ◽  
Weather Effects

Effects of weather conditions including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind and direction on PM2.5 were studied using statistical methods. PM2.5 samples were collected during the summer and the winter in a suburb of Shenzhen. Then, correlations, hypothesis test and statistical distribution of PM2.5 and meteorological data were analyzed with IBM SPSS predictive analytics software. Seasonal and daily variations of PM2.5 have been found and these mainly resulted from the weather effects.

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