scholarly journals The effect of minimum wage and inflationary pressure on youth unemployment in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-165
Author(s):  
Alao Ajibola ◽  
◽  
Kesiena Oraka ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Wage Determination ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
The Impact

This study carried out an empirical investigation on the impact of minimum wage and inflationary pressure on youth unemployment in Nigeria from 1991 to 2019 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to estimate the multiple regression model. The model captured the impact of Inflation, GDP Growth Rate, FDI, Government Expenditure, and Minimum Wage as determinants of youth unemployment in Nigeria. The results show that minimum wage exerts a significant impact on youth unemployment in the country, whereas inflation does not significantly influence youth unemployment. These results disapprove argument in the literature that supports minimum wage as an income policy to improve the welfare of workers in Nigeria because it raises the youth unemployment level in the country. Hence, the study concludes that minimum wage determination should be market-based. With this, the study recommends that the Nigerian government seek alternative measures of improving workers’ welfare and reduce youth unemployment in the country. Keywords: Minimum Wage, Inflation, Youth Unemployment

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact Fiscal Fundamentals on Unemployment in Nigeria. Imperatives for Covid 19, Era

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (05) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Ologbenla ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Increase Productivity ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The study examined the impact of fiscal fundamental on unemployment rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020 focusing on COVID-19 imperatives. The research work embraces OLS estimating techniques to estimate the relationship between the variables. The result of the analysis revealed that government expenditure had positive and significant effect on the rate of unemployment. Also government revenue had a positive but insignificant impact on unemployment during. The implication of these findings for COVID-19 is that the narrative which is obtained from the analysis needs to be changed. Government revenue should be made to have significant impact on unemployment. The pandemic has led to a lot of job lost and the unemployment rate in Nigeria has risen by about 55% peaking at 36% youth unemployment rate as at last quarter of 2020. The study therefore, recommends that government should refocus expenditure and revenue in the country in such a way it will target development of infrastructural facilities so as to increase productivity and in turn facilitate employment generation.

scholarly journals An Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Inflation in Nigeria (1981-2017)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Apeh ◽  
Abubakar Muhammad Auwal ◽  
Nweze Nwaze Obinna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981–2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic variables on the credit provided by Saudi Banks: تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على التمويل المصرفي في المملكة العربية السعودية (دراسة قياسية شملت البيانات من 1970م – 2012م)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyas Jafar Abdel Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables of the Saudi economy as in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Expenditure (G), Economic Openness (OPE), Inflation Rate (CPI) and the Bank Deposits (DS) on the credit provided by Saudi banks (BF), on annual time series data between 1970-2012. To investigate this relationship, the study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) to measure the long-run and short-run impact, At that the E-views 8.1 has been used for analyze the cointegration,the diagnostic, the reliability - stability tests, and the forecasting behavior of the model. The study found that (BF) is affected positively by (GDP) growth rate in the long-run. Also the (BF) has been affected negatively in the short and long-run by inflation rates (CPI) and government expenditure (G). Consequently the Contractionary Fiscal Policy in recent period will not lead to reduce the financial performance of Saudi banks, and the growth of (GDP) in the future will have positive impact on the financing capacity of the Saudi banking sector.

Oil prices, armed conflict and government revenue in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1196-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Udoma Johnson Afangideh ◽  
Augustine Ujunwa ◽  
Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Purpose Persistent wave of armed conflicts – militancy and terrorism – and the mono-cultural structure of the Nigerian economy, as well as extensive reliance on revenue from crude oil, highlights how external vulnerabilities, weakening internal structure and insecurity could significantly exacerbate public revenue loss. Understanding the nature, trend and impact of these factors on government revenue is one of the questions that still remain unsolved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The study focusses on the state-failure and frustration-aggression hypotheses to explain the nature and trend of armed conflicts in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine the effect of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue. Findings The study reveals that crude oil price, terrorism and militancy have significant negative effect on government revenue in short- and long-run Nigeria. Evidence from the study therefore supports the theory that macroeconomic fluctuation is largely determined by endogenous and exogenous factors in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications In view of this review, future studies should empirically analyse the interactive impact of militancy, terrorism and global oil prices on government expenditure or a combination of government revenue and expenditure. Originality/value The study provides evidence on the role of internal and external factors on macroeconomic fluctuation, and recommended appropriate suite of policies that could mitigate external and internal vulnerabilities, especially during upsurge in armed conflicts.

scholarly journals The minimum wage remains significantly high in Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-15
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abrich ◽  
Mohamed Amine Lahlou
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Scientific Publication ◽  
Wage Distribution ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Minimum Wage Legislation ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas ◽  
The Impact

Morocco passed minimum wage legislation as early as 1936 with the aim of defining minimum pay levels for employees in urban and rural areas. Decisions to increase the minimum wage (guaranteed minimum wage) and SMAG (minimum guaranteed agricultural wage), which serve as minimum wages in the non-agricultural and agricultural sectors, respectively, do not follow a pre-established timetable but arise from exchanges between different stakeholders within the framework of social dialogue. Since the early 2000s, around ten increases have been implemented on the minimum wage, however, no scientific publication analyzing their effects on the Moroccan economy has been carried out. Thus, the objective of the study published by BAM is to examine the impact of revaluations of the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables of interest to the decision-maker. The study reviews the criteria for setting the minimum wage and its macroeconomic effects. Then on the stylized facts that characterize the minimum wage in Morocco, particularly in relation to wage distribution, employment, informality and youth unemployment. The study also explores the links between minimum wage, overall salary and employment. Finally, a simulation of the effects of the increase in the minimum wage on the Moroccan economy is carried out based on a more structural model derived from the IMF's FSGM model.

scholarly journals The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (221) ◽  
pp. 65-83
Author(s):  
Biçerli Kemal ◽  
Merve Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index represents prices and the industrial production index represents growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction based Granger causality test is then conducted to see short-run and long-run causalities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically significant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causality for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of unemployed people in Turkey.

Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enock Mwakalila
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Private Sector Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically analyzes the impact of government expenditure and domestic borrowing on credit to the private sector in Tanzania by increasing lending rates. Quarterly time series data are collected from 2004 to 2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short- and long-run relationships, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The result shows that government expenditure and domestic borrowing crowd out credit to the private sector by increasing the lending rate in the long run. This calls for the Tanzanian government to reduce some of its deficit spending and domestic borrowing, and instead look for another way to increase the tax revenue using loans from external sources to fund its budget deficit. Also, the study recommends that the government should put more effort on improving private sector development by making the country an easy place to do business, which in turn will increase the tax base through corporate tax and income tax from business employees.

scholarly journals Economic growth and unemployment linkage in a developing economy: a gender and age classification perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 527-538
Author(s):  
Ebere Ume Kalu ◽  
Chinwe Achike ◽  
Ann Ogbo ◽  
Wilfred Ukpere
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Bound Test

This paper examined the growth and unemployment linkage from a gender-classification perspective using the Nigerian economic environment. The autoregressive distributed lag model in its baseline form, the bound test, and error correction representation were used as the estimation approach. Annualized time series spanning 1981 to 2017 were used for the variables of interest. Generally, it was found that female unemployment has a positive significant influence on GDP growth rate in Nigeria, while youth unemployment negatively and significantly influences GDP. It was also found that male unemployment does not significantly affect the GDP growth rate in Nigeria. In the long run, the main variables influencing GDP growth rate within the context of this study include unemployment rate, ratio of labor force size to the national population, female unemployment rate, and youth unemployment rate. The error correction representation and the bound test estimates confirm that growth adjusts to the dynamics of the studied unemployment variables. The study advocates for an increase in government capital expenditure, as this is theoretically and practically known to create new jobs. This spending should go into real and core productive sectors that would create upstream and downstream jobs opportunities.

Does corruption adversely affect economic growth in Tunisia? ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-54
Author(s):  
Anas Al Qudah ◽  
Azzouz Zouaoui ◽  
Mostafa E. Aboelsoud
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to better understand the phenomenon of corruption in Tunisia in relation to its impact on economic development. The period of study is 1995 to 2014. The auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to examine the existence of a long-term relationship between the above-mentioned variables and also the direct and indirect consequences of corruption on economic development in Tunisia. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a modern econometric technique to estimating the long-term relationship (e.g. the co-integration) between corruption and economic development; using this technique also allows us to investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth. Findings The empirical results show that corruption has a negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Tunisia for the period under review. This effect is described as a direct effect of corruption in the long term; specifically, declines are observed in per capita GDP, over the long run, by almost 1 per cent, following a 1 per cent increase in the level of corruption. The results also show that corruption has indirect effects via transmission channels, such as investment in physical capital, which is positively significant in the presence of corruption. The same observation is made at the level of government expenditure during the previous year, while for those of the current year, the coefficient becomes negative but not significant. With respect to human capital, the impact of corruption on education expenditures is insignificant. Originality/value The paper begins with an overview of previous literature in this area. Given the nature of corruption and the differences in the meanings attributed to it, from one country to another and from one culture to another, the paper moves on to study the impact of corruption in Tunisia as a case study for one country with one socio-cultural environment. The authors then propose several methods and possible solutions, which could be implemented to deal with this problem.

scholarly journals Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Validity of Wagner’s Law

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (02) ◽  
pp. 2039-2150
Author(s):  
Funsho Kolapo ◽  
Azeez Bolanle ◽  
Joseph Mokuolu ◽  
Taiwo Oluwaleye ◽  
Kehinde Alabi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Capital Projects ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the impact of government expenditure on economic growth with special inclination to testing the Wagner’s law in Sub Saharan Africa between 1986 and 2018. Adopting the Panel first generation tests as well as the Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Pairwise Causality techniques, it was revealed that government expenditure causes economic growth rendering the Wagner’s law is invalid in the Sub-Saharan region. Also, it was further discovered that capital and recurrent expenditure exert negative effect on economic growth while total expenditure has positive effect on economic growth in the region. Therefore, based on the negativity of capital and recurrent expenditure, it is recommended that capital and recurrent expenditure must be monitored effectively to ensure that its increase will not exert any negative effect on economic growth while stringent measures as well as checks and balances must be adopted to curb corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa to ensure that funds are used exclusively for their intended purposes especially those pertaining to capital projects.

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