scholarly journals Impact Assessment of the Real Sector and Non-Productive Spheres on the Dynamics of the Business Activity Index

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Frenkel ◽  
B. I. Tikhomirov ◽  
N. N. Volkova ◽  
A. A. Surkov
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Activity Index ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
The State ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Impact

The article is devoted to the impact assessment of the real sector and other factors of economic growth (characteristics of the financial sector, paid services and household incomes) on the dynamics of the business activity index, an integral indicator characterizing the state and trends of the country’s macroeconomic development. The purpose of the article is to justify the need and highlight the feasibility for developing new aggregated business activity indexes that include a wider range of the national economy areas than the output index of goods and services for the Rosstat basic business lines. The authors have used the design method for integral estimates of macroeconomic dynamics, regression analysis, and a probabilistic approach (the method of pairwise preferences) to determine the weighing coefficients of the basic indicators. The work has resulted in time series of business activity indices (in tables and graphs), based on the method proposed by the authors. The new index of business activity suggests a more objective assessment of the state and trends of socio-economic development compared to the same Rosstat index. This index can help to improve the macroeconomic forecasting efficiency and lay the groundwork for more grounded management decisions.

Business Activity and Economic Growth: An Economic and Statistical Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 66-78
Author(s):  
A. A. Frenkel ◽  
B. I. Tikhomirov ◽  
Y. V. Sergienko ◽  
A. A. Surkov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Activity Index ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Accurate Determination ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Impact

This publication reflects the results of the author’s research on improving the domestic statistical and methodological tools used in the analysis and forecasting of the Russian economy. In this regard, the main features of the formation and application of the Business Activity Index for basic spheres of the economy of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (hereinafter, the index of business activity) are shown and substantiations of its individual advantages are given in comparison with the index of output of goods and services for the basic types of economic activities of Rosstat (hereinafter, the release of goods and services). The authors provide evidence that despite a number of positive qualities of the applied methodology for constructing the index of output of goods and services, the business activity index, according to the authors of the article, provides a more objective assessment of macroeconomic dynamics, since it includes additional indicators reflecting financial and social aspects of economic development. It is proved that the main advantages of the business activity index are manifested in a more accurate determination of the depth of crisis phenomena in socio-economic development, as well as in determining the timing of the onset and overcoming of these negative processes. The characteristics of the macroeconomic indicators that make up the business activity index are given. Methods for calculating the weights of indicators characterizing the level of business activity in various spheres of the national economy, as well as methods for determining changes in this level are considered. Changes in the dynamics of these weights are analyzed. Ways of more efficient use of business activity indices in the practice of accounting, forecasting and management of socio-economic development are proposed. The conclusion is substantiated that it is advisable to use the business activity index for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and strategic planning, which will make it possible to more accurately assess the impact of the implementation of national projects and the social package of the message of the President of the Russian Federation on economic growth and increase the efficiency of using business activity tools in the practice of public administration of social economic development of the country.

Reducing the Risks of the Financial Sector to Ensure Sustainable Growth of the Russian Еconomy

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-92
Author(s):  
T. I. Minina ◽  
V. V. Skalkin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s entry into the top five economies of the world depends, among other things, on the development of the financial sector, being a necessary condition for the economic growth of a developed macroeconomic and macro-financial system. The financial sector represents a system of relationships for the effective collection and distribution of economic resources, their deployment according to public demand, reducing the risk of overproduction and overheating of the economy.Therefore, the subject of the research is the financial sector of the Russian economy.The purpose of the research was to formulate an approach to alleviating the risks of increasing financial costs in the real sector of the economy by reducing the impact of endogenous risks expressed as financial asset “bubbles” using the experience of developed countries in the monetary policy.The paper analyzes a macroeconomic model applied to the financial sector. It is established that the economic growth is determined by the growth and, more important, the qualitative development of the financial sector, which leads to two phenomena: overproduction in the real sector and an increase in asset prices in the financial sector, with a debt load in both the real and financial sectors. This results in decreasing the interest rate of the mega-regulator to near-zero values. In this case, since the mechanisms of the conventional monetary policy do not work, the unconventional monetary policy is used when the mega-regulator buys out derivative financial instruments from systemically important institutions. As a conclusion, given deflationally low rates, it is proposed that the megaregulator should issue its own derivative financial instruments and place them in the financial market.

scholarly journals Probabilistic assessment of pile capacity based on CPTu probing including random pile foundation depth

2018 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 01058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Wyjadłowski ◽  
Irena Bagińska ◽  
Jakub Reiner
Keyword(s):  
Bearing Capacity ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Direct Methods ◽  
Side Surface ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Direct Data ◽  
Design Calculations ◽  
The Impact

The modern recognition of subsoil with the use of CPTu static probes allows to obtain detailed information necessary for the designing. Registered basic two quantities, i.e. cone resistance qc and friction on the sleeve fs, often become direct data, which allow to estimate bearing capacity of the base and the side surface of the pile. Direct methods use similarity of the pile work and piezo-cone work during the examination. An important design stage is the appropriate development of measurement data prior to the commencement of the procedure of determining the pile bearing capacity. Algorithms generated on the basis of empirical experiments are often applied with the simultaneous use of test loads. The probabilistic approach is also significant, because it enables objective assessment of the reliability level of performed design calculations. This work contains an analysis of the impact on the estimated bearing capacity and reliability of a pile of variable random depth of the pile base. It also includes the determination of probabilities of obtaining the assumed safety index for the designed solution at random foundation depth.

scholarly journals Sister Ship Binding Clause as a Reinforcement of Debt Repayment Legal Certainty on Ship Mortgage

Yuridika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 501
Author(s):  
Fani Martiawan Kumara Putra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Legal Certainty ◽  
Marine Transportation ◽  
Significant Development ◽  
Legal Rules ◽  
Sister Ship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
National Borders

The field of marine transportation plays a role that is not less important than land transportation in terms of economic development in Indonesia. As a result of globalization, business activity continues to increase, whether it is business in the field of marine transportation or outside the field, it is certainly undeniable that the activity requires a very large funds, which funds can be obtained by one way is to apply for credit/loans. Large amount of loans will only be given with the imposition of collateral as a further process. The imposition of collateral for large amount of loans may designate the ship as its collateral object by utilizing the Mortgage security agency. However, when the ship is being vetted on a voyage across national borders, the impact is when its debts mature, then the execution of such ship will be difficult, caused by the inadequate legal rules in Indonesia, and not all countries ratify the ship’s arrest convention. This study aims to provide a solution in order to achieve legal certainty of Mortgaged object execution that being across national borders for a significant development of shipping business. This research is normative research. The result obtained is the need of a clause in the Mortgage security document concerning the binding of sister ship with equal value, as the collateral object backup, when the execution of ship loaded with Mortgage security is unable to be done since it is located outside the state border.

scholarly journals Financial system and growth and economic development

VUZF Review ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-170
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Hala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
The Real ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the article is to present the role of the financial system in economic growth and development. The first part presents the traditional understanding of the relationship between the economic system and economic growth. The second part presents the experience of financial crises and their impact on the conversation on the mutual relations between the financial sector and the real sector. The third part shows the role of the state in the financial system. The article describes the arrangement of interrelated financial institutions, financial markets and elements of the financial system infrastructure.  It shows what part of the economic system the financial system is, and whether it enables the provision of services allowing the circulation of purchasing power throughout the economy. The article presents the important role of the financial system, the role related to the transfer of capital from entities with savings to entities that need capital for investments. It shows the financial system as a set of logically related organizational forms, legal acts, financial institutions and other elements enabling entities to establish financial relations in the real sector and the financial sector, and this system forms the basis of activity for entities using money, enabling the conclusion of various economic transactions, in which money performs various functions. The article also presents the concept of a financial crisis as a situation in which there are rapid changes in the financial market, usually associated with insufficient liquidity or insolvency of banks or financial institutions, and as a result, a decrease in production or its deepening. The article also includes issues related to the impact of public authorities (state and local authorities) on the financial system in the economy.

scholarly journals Evaluation of personnel of the State border service of Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 49-59
Author(s):  
Nataliia Lipovska ◽  
Mykola Malanchii
Keyword(s):  
Social System ◽  
Visual Display ◽  
The State ◽  
Professional Standard ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Social ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Method Of Evaluation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Holistic Description

The article reveals the technology of assessing the professional suitability of officials to perform their functions on the basis of the method of modeling and comparing assessments with the necessary parameters for the position, ie with the model. The term "model" is used as a holistic description of the coordination of the requirements of the social system (SS) with the possibilities of their implementation. The model in this case is a professional standard, which is developed for each position. The professional standard is the agreed standard by which employees should work. This method - the method of evaluation using a professional standard, is the result of the implementation of the principle of consistency in the construction of the model. According to the authors, the method is not only novelty approach, but also versatility. It is possible to estimate by means of a professional standard not only the expert, but also group, potential of collective, it is possible to make comparisons, to define weaknesses and strongnesses of the organizations. The technique developed by authors is offered that allows to carry out various necessary variations with the estimated signs, including visual display of results in various forms.Job modeling refers to ideal or imaginary modeling (as opposed to material, substantive, when modeling physical and mathematical objects) and is based largely on the idealization of the object. In our opinion, at no stage can the model be embodied in an absolutely accurate copy due to the unforeseen influence of many external factors.Modeling of evaluation characteristics in personnel activity is a necessary element in the real assessment of the state of affairs in the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. That is why their importance is growing in the context of its reform, taking into account the impact on it of both negative and positive factors.

scholarly journals Investment Decision In Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Indonesia*

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Siti Aisyah Tri Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
The Real ◽  
Internal Capital ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study are: First, to analyze is there any significant influence among debt ratio, internal capital, cash flow, inflation expectations and the expectations of rupiah exchange rate against the decisions of businessmen in the real sector to invest or not to invest; Second, to analyze the impact of the variables perception mortgage interest rates, perceptions of bank regulation, internal capital and cash flow on debt ratio of the real sector (leverage). Investment decision model is estimated using logit models. The results of regression estimates the overall good for business and risk analysis for financial risk shows that almost all explanatory variables in the equation are statistically significant. There are three variables have a positive influence on the investment decisions taken by the businesses i.e. the debt ratio, cash flow and exchange rate expectations.

scholarly journals RELATIONSHIP OF STRUCTURAL POLICY OF THE STATE AND MODERNIZATION OF THE REAL SECTOR OF ECONOMICS

2018 ◽  
pp. 84-94
Author(s):  
S. SOLODOVNICOV
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Structural Policy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Relationship Of

В статье выявлена взаимосвязь структурной политики государства и модернизации реального сектора экономики, что позволило сделать вывод о необходимости парадигмальной замены модели выживания отечественных предприятий реального сектора экономики на модель новой индустриализации, т. е. на формировании новой структуры народного хозяйства, основой которой должен стать сверхиндустриальный промышленный уклад. Определены мероприятия, которые надо системно реализовать для создания оптимальных условий реализации этой модели в Республике Беларусь.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF INTERSECTORAL ECONOMIC FACTORS ON EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (44) ◽  
pp. 73-83
Author(s):  
E.A. Edinak ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Service Industries ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
The Real ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
Total Labor ◽  
The Impact

The target of the research is the sphere of employment of the Russian labor market. The author attempts to assess the total labor costs in the sectoral context and the intersectoral structure of jobs in the economy. The aim of the study is to analyze retrospective indicators of the number and sectoral structure of employment, quantitative estimates of the impact on it of the parameters of economic dynamics. The analysis of the coefficients showed that the branches of the real sector and the service sector are characterized by different abilities to create jobs, which are determined by the structure of production in the economy. With the growth of production in the sectors of the real sector, the demand for employment (exceeding the size of the intrasectoral one) is formed more in related sectors. Most service industries have a low potential for inducing jobs in the economy. The article also substantiates that a change in final demand for the same amount in industries is differently transformed into labor income in the economy. In the service sector, the largest growth in payroll funds was recorded with a minimum increase in the income of workers in related industries. In the production sector, the situation is the opposite: the growth of final demand generates incomes for workers in related industries with a lower direct effect. The research is based on the input-output tables published by Rosstat and the symmetric input-output balance table obtained on their basis for 2017. The results of the study and the conclusions drawn are a tool for assessing the effectiveness of economic policy measures aimed at supporting and/or developing industries in terms of their impact on employment and income growth of the working population.

scholarly journals Improving the Resilience of Banking System in Small Open Economy: Is Macroprudential Policy Efficient?

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 07050
Author(s):  
Petra Popek Biskupec ◽  
Suzana Herman
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Real ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Impact

Research background: Although macroprudential instruments increase financial stability, it is necessary to test how they affect the overall economic recovery after a global financial crisis. In the post-crisis period, the real sector needed a strong injection of capital in order to be able to start recovery and to encourage economic growth. At the same time, most of the countries introduced strict regulatory measures that strengthen bank capital and the liquidity base. From the standpoint of the financial sector stability, these measures contributed to the overall financial stability, but at the same time, these measures hold up the bank credit activity. Purpose of the article: This paper analyses the impact of macroprudential instruments on the bank credit activity toward the non-financial sector. The analysis is made by using the Granger Causality Test and the ARLDS Bounds Test. Methods: The research was conducted for the period of 2000 – 2019, based on the data of the Croatian National Bank and the Croatian Bureau of Statistics using logarithmic quarterly data. The analysis is made by using the Granger Causality Test and the ARLDS Bounds Test. Findings & Value added: The results confirm the thesis that additional macroprudential measures decrease the bank credit activity toward the real sector, which slows down the real sector recovery and extends the downturn in the business cycle. On the other hand, the macroprudential measures increase the financial stability of the whole economy, which is positive for future investments and recovery of the real sector.

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