scholarly journals Projeções da temperatura da superfície na bacia hidrográfica do rio Tietê – SP para o final do Século XXI

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (07) ◽  
pp. 3206
Author(s):  
Murilo da Costa Ruv Lemes ◽  
Michelle Simões Reboita ◽  
Roger Rodrigues Torres ◽  
Gilberto F Fisch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Hydrographic Basin ◽  
Mouth Region ◽  
Tietê River ◽  
Eta Model

A bacia hidrográfica do rio Tietê tem sido afetada por mudanças em seu uso e cobertura do solo, principalmente às margens do rio Tietê, que influenciam diretamente a temperatura da superfície (Ts). Nesse contexto, o objetivo do trabalho é caracterizar sazonalmente a Ts na referida bacia e apresentar projeções dessa variável obtidas com o modelo ETA em alta resolução (5 km) nos cenários RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 e considerando 3 intervalos temporais: 2006-2040, 2040-2070, 2070-2100. Até o final do século XXI algumas áreas da bacia do rio Tietê, bem como sua região de foz, poderão apresentar aumento de até 5º C (8º C) no período entre 2070 - 2100 do cenário RCP4.5 (8.5), o que pode impactar tanto as atividades econômicas quanto o cotidiano da população. Projections of surface temperature in the hydrographic basin of the Tietê river - SP for the end of the 21st century A B S T R A C TThe hydrographic basin of the Tietê river has been affected by changes in its use and land cover, mainly on its banks, which directly influence the surface temperature (Ts). In this context, the objective of the work is to seasonally characterize the Ts in the referred basin and present projections of this variable obtained with the ETA model in high resolution (5 km), under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and considering 3-time slices: 2006-2040, 2040-2070, 2070-2100. Some calculations (such as climatological averages and bias) were necessary to understand the magnitude of the changes that have occurred and those that may occur. By the end of the 21st century, some areas of the Tietê river basin, as well as its mouth region, may show an increase of up to 5º C (8º C) in the period between 2070 - 2100 of the RCP4.5 (8.5) scenario, which may impact both economic activities and the daily lives of the population.Keywords: Climate Change; Hydrographic Basin; Sao Paulo

scholarly journals Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 19-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex G. Libardoni ◽  
Chris E. Forest ◽  
Andrei P. Sokolov ◽  
Erwan Monier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century and the acceleration of heat stored in the deep ocean, have a substantial impact on these estimates. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM), we vary three model parameters that influence the behavior of the climate system: effective climate sensitivity (ECS), the effective ocean diffusivity of heat anomalies by all mixing processes (Kv), and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing scaling factor. Each model run is compared to observed changes in decadal mean surface temperature anomalies and the trend in global mean ocean heat content change to derive a joint probability distribution function for the model parameters. Marginal distributions for individual parameters are found by integrating over the other two parameters. To investigate how the inclusion of recent temperature changes affects our estimates, we systematically include additional data by choosing periods that end in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We find that estimates of ECS increase in response to rising global surface temperatures when data beyond 1990 are included, but due to the slowdown of surface temperature rise in the early 21st century, estimates when using data up to 2000 are greater than when data up to 2010 are used. We also show that estimates of Kv increase in response to the acceleration of heat stored in the ocean as data beyond 1990 are included. Further, we highlight how including spatial patterns of surface temperature change modifies the estimates. We show that including latitudinal structure in the climate change signal impacts properties with spatial dependence, namely the aerosol forcing pattern, more than properties defined for the global mean, climate sensitivity, and ocean diffusivity.

Modelling climate change impacts on glaciers and water resources in China  using OGGM and FUSE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Goldberg ◽  
Louis Kinnear ◽  
Florian Kobierska-Baffie ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
Helen He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountainous Regions

<p>Hundreds of millions of people depend strongly on hydrological inputs in the mountainous regions of China and central Asia. Glacier runoff is a major contributor to this hydrological forcing, yet many glaciers in the region have undergone mass loss in recent years and this mass loss is expected to continue or increase in response to climatological change. As such it is important to assess the large-scale response of High Mountain Asia glaciers to climate change , and its effects on hydrology. We present here preliminary modelling investigations of glacier change and hydrological impacts in response to high-resolution climate model projections over the 21st century as a component of the project SWARM (Impacts Assessment to Support WAter Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation for China). Our model chain consists of i) Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), which allows for high-resolution glacier flowline modelling of multiple glaciers, and ii) the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) a modular framework for snow and hydrology modelling, which we used to assemble and run three hydrological models over the whole of China. Both FUSE and OGGM are forced by an ensemble of bias-corrected CORDEX-East Asia regional climate models (in turn forced by CMIP5 general circulation models), and outputs of OGGM are provided to FUSE. We discuss our application of OGGM to 80,000 glaciers in Chinese river catchments; our efforts to calibrate the mass balance model using an expanded set of geodetic mass balance constraints; and finally the projections of glacier, snow and streamflow changes in the 21st century. In particular, we discuss the robustness and uncertainties in the projections as sampled by our multi-model ensemble.</p>

PROJETA platform: accessing high resolution climate change projections over Central and South America using the Eta model

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Amaral Holbig ◽  
Angela Mazzonetto ◽  
Felipe Borella ◽  
Willingthon Pavan ◽  
José Maurício Cunha Fernandes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
South America ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Eta Model

scholarly journals 21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 343 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Zittis ◽  
Adriana Bruggeman ◽  
Corrado Camera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Impact

According to observational and model-based studies, the eastern Mediterranean region is one of the most prominent climate-change hotspots in the world. The combined effect of warming and drying is expected to augment the regional impacts of global warming. In addition to changes in mean climatic conditions, global warming is likely to induce changes in several aspects of extreme rainfall such as duration and magnitude. In this context, we explore the impact of climate change on precipitation with the use of several indicators. We focus on Cyprus, a water-stressed island located in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. Our results are derived from a new high-resolution simulation for the 21st century, which is driven by a “business-as-usual” scenario. In addition to a strong temperature increase (up to 4.1 °C), our analysis highlights that, on average for the island, most extreme precipitation indicators decrease, suggesting a transition to much drier conditions. The absolute daily rainfall maxima exhibit strong local variability, indicating the need for high resolution simulations to understand the potential impacts on future flooding.

scholarly journals Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy: analyses from CORDEX-AFRICA climate experiments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeline Bichet ◽  
Benoit Hingray ◽  
Guillaume Evin ◽  
Arona Diedhiou ◽  
Fadel Kebe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Solar Resource

<p>The development of renewable electricity in Africa could be massive in coming decades, as a response to the rapid rising electricity demand while complying with the Paris Agreements. This study shows that in the high-resolution climate experiments of CORDEX-AFRICA, the annual mean solar potential is expected to decrease on average by 4% over most of the continent by the end of the century, reaching up to 6% over the Horn of Africa, as a direct result of decrease in solar radiation and increase in air surface temperature. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, in particular over the Sahel and the elevated terrains of eastern Africa. While the expected decrease may affect the sizing of the numerous solar projects planned in Africa for the next decades, this study suggests that it does not endanger their viability. At last, this study indicates that the design of such projects also needs to account for the non-negligible uncertainties associated with the resource.</p>

scholarly journals Future temperature and salinity in Puget Sound, Washington State, under CMIP6 climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stevie Walker ◽  
Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna ◽  
Isaac Kaplan ◽  
David Petatán-Ramírez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Puget Sound ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Sea Surface

Abstract In Washington State, climate change will reshape the Puget Sound marine ecosystem through bottom-up and top-down processes, directly affecting species at all trophic levels. To better understand future climate change effects on sea surface temperature and salinity in Puget Sound, we used empirical downscaling to derive high-resolution time series of future sea surface temperature and salinity. Downscaling was based on scenario outputs of two coarse-resolution General Circulation Models, GFDL-CM4 and CNRM-CM6-1-HR, developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We calculated 30-year climatologies for historical and future simulations, calculated the anomalies between historical and future projections, interpolated to a high resolution, and applied the resulting downscaled anomalies to a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) time series, yielding short-term (2020–2050) and long-term (2070–2100) delta-downscaled forecasts. Downscaled output for Puget Sound showed temperature and salinity variability between scenarios and models, but overall, there was strong model agreement. Model variability and uncertainty was higher for long-term projections. Spatially, we found regional differences for both temperature and salinity, including higher temperatures in the South Basin of Puget Sound and higher salinity in the North Basin. This study is a first step to translating CMIP6 outputs to higher resolution predictions of future conditions in Puget Sound. Interpreting downscaled projections of temperature and salinity in Puget Sound will help inform future ecosystem-based management decisions, such as supporting end-to-end ecosystem modeling simulations and assessing local-scale exposure risk to climate change.

Observation and Temperature Changes : Warming of The Climate System and Future of Global Warming in 21st Century

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Kumar Singh ◽  
Bharat Raj Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate System ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
The United Nations

Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century and its projected continuation. Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain that it is primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deformation. Climate model projections were summarized in 21st Century Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) for their lowest emission scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations. The Earth's average surface temperature rose by .74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005.Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Proposed policy responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, and possible future geo engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change. Reports published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Energy Agency suggest that efforts as of the early 21st century to reduce emissions may be inadequate to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target. Future of climate change and associated impacts will vary from region to region around the globe. The effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern of precipitation, as well a probable expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the loss of habitat from inundation.

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