scholarly journals Do Changes in Threat Salience Predict Moral Content of Sermons? The Case of Friday Khutbas in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinan Alper ◽  
Fatih Bayrak ◽  
Elif Öykü Us ◽  
Onurcan Yilmaz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Relative Frequency ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
The Other ◽  
Moral Foundations ◽  
Moral Foundations Theory ◽  
Moral Content ◽  
Societal Level ◽  
Time Series Analyses

We analyzed the content of “Friday Khutbas” delivered in Turkish mosques between January 2001 and December 2018 to test the prediction of moral foundations theory (MFT) literature that threat salience would lead to an increased endorsement of binding moral foundations. As societal-level indicators of threat, we examined (1) historical data on the number of terrorism-related news published in a Turkish newspaper, (2) geopolitical risk score of Turkey as measured by Geopolitical Risk Index, and (3) Google Trends data on the search frequency of words “terror”, “terrorism”, or “terrorist”. To measure the endorsement of moral foundations, we built a Turkish Moral Foundations Dictionary and counted the relative frequency of morality-related words in the khutbas delivered in Istanbul, Turkey. Time series analyses showed that risk salience in a certain month was positively related to endorsement of the loyalty/betrayal foundation in that month’s Friday Khutbas. There were mixed results for the other moral foundations.

scholarly journals Smallpox and Season: Reanalysis of Historical Data

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Nishiura ◽  
Tomoko Kashiwagi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Annual Peak ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Reported Data

Seasonal variation in smallpox transmission is one of the most pressing ecological questions and is relevant to bioterrorism preparedness. The present study reanalyzed 7 historical datasets which recorded monthly cases or deaths. In addition to time series analyses of reported data, an estimation and spectral analysis of the effective reproduction number at calendar time , , were made. Meteorological variables were extracted from a report in India from 1890–1921 and compared with smallpox mortality as well as . Annual cycles of smallpox transmission were clearly shown not only in monthly reports but also in the estimates of . Even short-term epidemic data clearly exhibited an annual peak every January. Both mortality and revealed significant negative association () and correlation (), respectively, with humidity. These findings suggest that smallpox transmission greatly varies with season and is most likely enhanced by dry weather.

scholarly journals Child-to-Parent Violence and Dating Violence Through the Moral Foundations Theory: Same or Different Moral Roots?

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria L. Vecina ◽  
Jose C. Chacón ◽  
Raúl Piñuela
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Dating Violence ◽  
Youth Violence ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Moral Foundations ◽  
Young Offenders ◽  
Moral Foundations Theory

The objective of this study is to explore and to verify the utility of the five moral foundations (care, fairness, loyalty, authority, and purity) to differentiate between two understudied groups, namely, young offenders who use violence against their parents or dating partners, as well as to predict the extent to which these young people justify violence and perceive themselves as aggressive. Although both types of violence imply, by definition, harming someone (low care) and adopting a position of authority (high authority), we hypothesize a very different role for at least these two moral foundations. Our results support this idea and show a much lower regard for the five moral foundations, including care and authority, in the child-to-parent violence group (CPV; N = 65) than in the dating violence group (DV; N = 69). Additionally, the authority foundation was able to increase the effectiveness of correctly classifying the participants in one group or the other by 29%. Finally, care and authority, along with fairness, served to predict justification of violence and self-perceived aggressiveness. The moral foundations approach provides preliminary evidence to better understand two specific types of youth violence and extract preventive educational and treatment strategies.

scholarly journals A Refined Approach for Forecasting Based on Neutrosophic Time Series

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abdel-Basset ◽  
Victor Chang ◽  
Mai Mohamed ◽  
Florentin Smarandche
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
High Order ◽  
The Other ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Logical Relationship ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy

This research introduces a neutrosophic forecasting approach based on neutrosophic time series (NTS). Historical data can be transformed into neutrosophic time series data to determine their truth, indeterminacy and falsity functions. The basis for the neutrosophication process is the score and accuracy functions of historical data. In addition, neutrosophic logical relationship groups (NLRGs) are determined and a deneutrosophication method for NTS is presented. The objective of this research is to suggest an idea of first-and high-order NTS. By comparing our approach with other approaches, we conclude that the suggested approach of forecasting gets better results compared to the other existing approaches of fuzzy, intuitionistic fuzzy, and neutrosophic time series.

scholarly journals What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 570-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Beshears ◽  
James J Choi ◽  
Andreas Fuster ◽  
David Laibson ◽  
Brigitte C Madrian
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
The Other ◽  
Slow Process ◽  
Fast Process ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Mean

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial mean reversion. Half of the subjects see a version of this process in which the momentum and partial mean reversion unfold over ten periods (“fast”), while the other subjects see a version with dynamics that unfold over 50 periods (“slow”). Typical subjects recognize most of the mean reversion of the fast process and none of the mean reversion of the slow process.

scholarly journals Migration Fears in the United States and the Geopolitical Risk Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 504-513
Author(s):  
Christopher Olds
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intergroup Conflict ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The U.S

This study contrasts a publicly available measure of migration fears in the United States with a publicly available measure of geopolitical risk, a barometer of concern about possible disruptions to peace in international relations. The time series analyses performed on information spanning between 1990 and 2019 suggest that a change in migration fears in the U.S. increases the level of geopolitical risk, such that the U.S. appears to perceive migrants as potentially threatening and responds with an aggressive posture in interactions with other nations. The findings of the study are aligned with theories in existing academic literature about fear-induced aggression and intergroup conflict.

State fiscal capacity and state failure

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron G. Thies
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
The Other ◽  
State Failure ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Fiscal Capacity ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Mixed Support ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Sub Saharan

This paper develops a predatory theory approach to understanding state failure. Predatory theory expects that state revenue extraction is central to the ability of states to engage in any other activities. States that are able to maximize their revenue extraction subject to well-known constraints are therefore likely to avoid state failure. On the other hand, when state failure occurs, it should reduce state revenue extraction. These hypotheses receive mixed support in several two-stage least-squares time-series analyses that control for the endogenous relationship between state fiscal capacity and state failure. While state failure reduces state fiscal capacity, state fiscal capacity does not deter state failure onset or incidence. In the sub-Saharan African subsample, state fiscal capacity does reduce the incidence of state failure despite a reciprocal negative effect.

Producers' Response to Changes in Prices and Marketing Policies: A Case Study of Sugarcane and Paddy in Eastern U.P. by S. C. Gupta and A. Majid. New York: Asia Publishing House, 1965.

1968 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 308-309
Author(s):  
Mohammad Irshad Khan
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Publishing House ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
The Other ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Northern India

It is alleged that the agricultural output in poor countries responds very little to movements in prices and costs because of subsistence-oriented produc¬tion and self-produced inputs. The work of Gupta and Majid is concerned with the empirical verification of the responsiveness of farmers to prices and marketing policies in a backward region. The authors' analysis of the respon¬siveness of farmers to economic incentives is based on two sets of data (concern¬ing sugarcane, cash crop, and paddy, subsistence crop) collected from the district of Deoria in Eastern U.P. (Utter Pradesh) a chronically foodgrain deficit region in northern India. In one set, they have aggregate time-series data at district level and, in the other, they have obtained data from a survey of five villages selected from 170 villages around Padrauna town in Deoria.

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