scholarly journals The Perception of Infection Risks during the Early and Later Outbreak of COVID-19 in Germany: Consequences and Recommendations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Glöckner ◽  
Angela Rachael Dorrough ◽  
Tobias Wingen ◽  
Simone Dohle
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Perceived Control ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Theory Development ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
Personal Consequences ◽  
Shaped Pattern

In three studies (N = 1,055), we investigated the determinants and consequences of the perception of infection risks during the early and later outbreak of COVID-19 in Germany. Individuals’ perceived COVID-19 infection risk was reasonably in line with experts’ assessment but changed over time. The probability of the rare event of getting severely sick and hospitalized was overestimated. Overestimation increased in the exponential growth phase of the pandemic and later on decreased again, showing an inverse U-shaped pattern. Individuals showed biases in their risk perception concerning overconfidence and the underestimation of exponential growth of infection cases in the early phase of the pandemic. Forecasts were more accurate after the growth curve had flattened. Risk perceptions increased with perceived dread and tended to increase with perceived control over infection, the evaluation of scientific and own knowledge about the pandemic. Approval for the introduction of stricter governmental measures and acceptance of future vaccination measures was mainly influenced by rational utilitarian factors of risk perception (probabilities and utilities of outcomes). These rational influences were mediated by dread, but dread had an additional potentially irrational effect. Adherence to governmental recommendations was mainly driven by dread and positive expected long-term consequences of the measures. To a smaller degree, adherence increased with perceived personal consequences of infection and decreased with negative expected short-term consequences of these measures. Implications for theory development are discussed and recommendations to handle virus outbreaks are derived.

scholarly journals Experiencing the risk of overutilising opioids among patients with chronic non-cancer pain in ambulatory care (ERONA): the protocol of an exploratory, randomised controlled trial

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. e037642
Author(s):  
Odette Wegwarth ◽  
Claudia Spies ◽  
Erika Schulte ◽  
Joerg J Meerpohl ◽  
Christine Schmucker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cancer Pain ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Risk Behaviour ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Term Administration ◽  
Randomised Controlled

IntroductionThe US opioid crisis and increasing prescription rates in Europe suggest inappropriate risk perceptions and behaviours of people who prescribe, take or advise on opioids: physicians, patients and pharmacists. Findings from cognitive and decision science in areas other than drug safety suggest that people’s risk perception and behaviour can differ depending on whether they learnt about a risk through personal experience or description. Experiencing the risk of overutilising opioids among patients with chronic non-cancer pain in ambulatory care (ERONA) is the first-ever conducted trial that aims at investigating the effects of these two modes of learning on individuals’ risk perception and behaviour in the long-term administration of WHO-III opioids in chronic non-cancer pain.Methods and analysisERONA—an exploratory, randomised controlled online survey intervention trial with two parallel arms—will examine the opioid-associated risk perception and behaviour of four groups involved in the long-term administration of WHO-III opioids: (1) family physicians, (2) physicians specialised in pain therapy, (3) patients with chronic (≥3 months) non-cancer pain and (4) pharmacists who regularly dispense narcotic substances. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of two online risk education interventions, description based or experiencebased. Both interventions will present the best medical evidence available. Participants will be queried at baseline and after intervention on their risk perception of opioids’ benefit–harm ratio, their medical risk literacy and their current/intended risk behaviour (in terms of prescribing, taking or counselling, depending on study group). A follow-up will occur after 9 months, when participants will be queried on their actual risk behaviour. The study was developed by the authors and will be conducted by the market research institution IPSOS Health.Ethics and disseminationThe study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and social media.Trial registration numberDRKS00020358.

scholarly journals Public perceptions of Lyme disease and climate change in southern Manitoba, Canada: making a case for strategic decoupling of climate and health messages

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Cameron ◽  
Rhéa Rocque ◽  
Kailey Penner ◽  
Ian Mauro
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Lyme Disease ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Behavioural Change ◽  
Health Messages ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Climate And Health

Abstract Background Despite scientific evidence that climate change has profound and far reaching implications for public health, translating this knowledge in a manner that supports citizen engagement, applied decision-making, and behavioural change can be challenging. This is especially true for complex vector-borne zoonotic diseases such as Lyme disease, a tick-borne disease which is increasing in range and impact across Canada and internationally in large part due to climate change. This exploratory research aims to better understand public risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease in order to increase engagement and motivate behavioural change. Methods A focus group study involving 61 participants was conducted in three communities in the Canadian Prairie province of Manitoba in 2019. Focus groups were segmented by urban, rural, and urban-rural geographies, and between participants with high and low levels of self-reported concern regarding climate change. Results Findings indicate a broad range of knowledge and risk perceptions on both climate change and Lyme disease, which seem to reflect the controversy and complexity of both issues in the larger public discourse. Participants in high climate concern groups were found to have greater climate change knowledge, higher perception of risk, and less skepticism than those in low concern groups. Participants outside of the urban centre were found to have more familiarity with ticks, Lyme disease, and preventative behaviours, identifying differential sources of resilience and vulnerability. Risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease were found to vary independently rather than correlate, meaning that high climate change risk perception did not necessarily indicate high Lyme disease risk perception and vice versa. Conclusions This research contributes to the growing literature framing climate change as a public health issue, and suggests that in certain cases climate and health messages might be framed in a way that strategically decouples the issue when addressing climate skeptical audiences. A model showing the potential relationship between Lyme disease and climate change perceptions is proposed, and implications for engagement on climate change health impacts are discussed.

Impact of risk aversion, reactance proneness and risk appraisal on travel destination risk perception

2021 ◽  
pp. 135676672098786
Author(s):  
Melvin Prince ◽  
Young Kim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Risk Appraisal ◽  
Travel Destination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Subjective Estimates

The aim of the study is to investigate the motivational effects of tourist traits and risk appraisal on tourist destination risk perception. Risk appraisal involves subjective estimates of vulnerability to a threat and the threat’s consequential severity. Fear levels influence both of these elements of risk appraisal. Individual differences in reactance proneness and risk aversion are introduced into the study model to more fully account for differences in travel destination risk perceptions. The study design involves US adults, who have used their passports for international travel in the past 5 years. Travel risk assessments were studied for four destination sites: London, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Istanbul. A general structural model is developed to test hypotheses about antecedents and consequents of risk appraisal and destination risk perception.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Modeling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks with Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 365
Author(s):  
Chénangnon Frédéric Tovissodé ◽  
Jonas Têlé Doumatè ◽  
Romain Glèlè Kakaï
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Latency Period ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Reporting Data

The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modeling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a flexible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases. In addition, the growth curves were integrated into a SIQR (Susceptible, Infective, Quarantined, Recovered) model framework to provide an overview on the modeled epidemic wave. We focused on the estimation of: (1) the delay between the appearance of the first infectious case in the population and the outbreak (“epidemic latency period”); (2) the duration of the exponential growth phase; (3) the basic and the time-varying reproduction numbers; and (4) the peaks (time and size) in confirmed positive cases, active cases and new infections. The application of this approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa allowed discussion on the effectiveness of some containment measures implemented across the region.

scholarly journals Social Networks, Trust, and Disaster-Risk Perceptions of Rural Residents in a Multi-Disaster Environment: Evidence from Sichuan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 2106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaijing Xue ◽  
Shili Guo ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Shaoquan Liu ◽  
Dingde Xu
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Rural Residents ◽  
Response Efficacy ◽  
The Impact

Individual perception of disaster risk is not only the product of individual factors, but also the product of social interactions. However, few studies have empirically explored the correlations between rural residents’ flat social networks, trust in pyramidal channels, and disaster-risk perceptions. Taking Sichuan Province—a typical disaster-prone province in China—as an example and using data from 327 rural households in mountainous areas threatened by multiple disasters, this paper measured the level of participants’ disaster-risk perception in the four dimensions of possibility, threat, self-efficacy, and response efficacy. Then, the ordinary least squares method was applied to probe the correlations between social networks, trust, and residents’ disaster-risk perception. The results revealed four main findings. (1) Compared with scores relating to comprehensive disaster-risk perception, participants had lower perception scores relating to possibility and threat, and higher perception scores relating to self-efficacy and response efficacy. (2) The carrier characteristics of their social networks significantly affected rural residents’ perceived levels of disaster risk, while the background characteristics did not. (3) Different dimensions of trust had distinct effects on rural residents’ disaster-risk perceptions. (4) Compared with social network variables, trust was more closely related to the perceived level of disaster risks, which was especially reflected in the impact on self-efficacy, response efficacy, and comprehensive perception. The findings of this study deepen understanding of the relationship between social networks, trust, and disaster-risk perceptions of rural residents in mountainous areas threatened by multiple disasters, providing enlightenment for building resilient disaster-prevention systems in the community.

scholarly journals Risk perception regarding the COVID-19 outbreak among the general population: a comparative Middle East survey

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Abdel Hameed Shahin ◽  
Rasha Mohammed Hussien
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
General Population ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background People’s perceptions of pandemic-associated risk are key factors contributing to increased public participation in disease preventive measures. The aim of the study was to investigate risk perceptions regarding the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, among the general population. A descriptive, cross-sectional design was used with a convenience sample of 723 participants, recruited from the general population of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. Data collection was performed using a standardized risk perception assessment questionnaire, in April 2020. Results The mean score for the perception of COVID-19 seriousness was significantly higher and the mean scores for the perception of disease susceptibility and extent of anxiety were also higher among Saudi Arabian participants than participants from Egypt and Jordan. Participants from Egypt had significantly lower mean scores for the perception of efficacy and self-efficacy to cope with COVID-19, and significantly lower intention to comply with COVID-19 precautionary measures than the other populations. A significant positive correlation was detected between the perception of COVID-19 seriousness and self-efficacy to handle COVID-19, for the entire sample. The primary reasons reported by participants driving their willingness to perform certain preventive measures against COVID-19 was a feeling of responsibility toward their own health, followed by preventing transmission to other people and the feeling that COVID-19 can be serious. Most of the study sample reported a desire to receive information about COVID-19 treatment, ways to prevent disease contraction, and the incubation period for the novel coronavirus. Also, most of the study sample reported that they prefer receiving COVID-19 updates from national authorities. Conclusions During the COVID-19 pandemic, communications designed to promote the adoption of preventive behaviors should focus on increasing the perception of seriousness, the risk perception, self-efficacy to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effectiveness of the adopted behavioral measures for reducing risk. Health education programs that are tailored to various sociodemographic categories, to improve public awareness, perceptions, and attitudes, are vital for increasing the adoption of outbreak preventive measures.

scholarly journals Adaptive reversion of a frameshift mutation in Escherichia coli.

Genetics ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 128 (4) ◽  
pp. 695-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Cairns ◽  
P L Foster
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Stationary Phase ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Frameshift Mutation ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Lacz Fusion ◽  
Mutation Rates ◽  
Classical Studies ◽  
Selective Forces

Abstract Mutation rates are generally thought not to be influenced by selective forces. This doctrine rests on the results of certain classical studies of the mutations that make bacteria resistant to phages and antibiotics. We have studied a strain of Escherichia coli which constitutively expresses a lacI-lacZ fusion containing a frameshift mutation that renders it Lac-. Reversion to Lac+ is a rare event during exponential growth but occurs in stationary cultures when lactose is the only source of energy. No revertants accumulate in the absence of lactose, or in the presence of lactose if there is another, unfulfilled requirement for growth. The mechanism for such mutation in stationary phase is not known, but it requires some function of RecA which is apparently not required for mutation during exponential growth.

Risk perception and visit intention on Olympic destination: Symmetric and asymmetric approaches

2021 ◽  
pp. 135676672199598
Author(s):  
Yeongbae Choe ◽  
Hany Kim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Marketing Strategies ◽  
Destination Choice ◽  
Target Marketing ◽  
Negative Perceptions ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Mass Marketing

Tourists’ risk perceptions have been studied extensively in tourism literature and are considered an important factor influencing destination choice. However, despite the extensive research, many earlier studies using symmetric approaches have not adequately succeeded in addressing the contrarian case – high visit intention despite having negative perceptions. Therefore, this study utilised both symmetric and asymmetric approaches to address the effects of tourists’ perceptions (i.e. risk perception, image, and attitude) and demographic factors on their visit intention. While the symmetric approach showed that Zika-related perceptions did not have an impact on destination visits, in the asymmetric approach, these same perceptions significantly influenced both high and low visit intentions. This study contributes to the existing knowledge of risk perceptions by highlighting the differences between the two methodological approaches. Destination marketers could utilise these findings to develop both mass marketing and target marketing strategies.

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