Strategies for integrating disparate social information
**Note that the paper has been published on https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.2413.** Our increasingly interconnected world provides virtually unlimited opportunities to observe the behavior of others. This affords abundant useful information but also requires navigating complex social environments with people holding disparate or conflicting views. It is, however, still largely unclear how people integrate information from multiple social sources that (dis)agree with them, and among each other. We address this issue in three steps. First, we present a judgment task in which participants could adjust their judgments after observing the judgments of three peers. We experimentally varied the distribution of this social information, systematically manipulating its variance (extent of agreement among peers) and its skewness (peer judgments clustering either near or far from the participant’s). As expected, higher variance among peers reduced their impact on behavior. Importantly, observing a single peer confirming an individual’s judgment markedly decreased the influence of other—more distant—peers. Second, we develop a framework for modelling the cognitive processes underlying the integration of disparate social information, combining Bayesian updating with simple heuristics. Our model accurately accounts for observed adjustment strategies and reveals that people particularly heed social information that confirms personal judgments. Moreover, the model exposes strong inter-individual differences in strategy use. Third, using simulations, we explore the possible implications of identified strategies for belief updating more broadly. They show how confirmation effects can hamper the influence of disparate social information, exacerbate filter bubble effects and worsen group polarization. Overall, our results clarify what aspects of the social environment are, and are not, conducive to changing people’s minds.