People accurately predict the transition probabilities between actions
Social interactions require people to read and anticipate others’ future actions. Here we investigate how people predict others’ future actions, based solely on knowledge of their current action. We first measured the actual transition probabilities between actions in five naturalistic datasets, including movie scripts, day-recall surveys, task instructions, and annotated videos. We then tested whether participants could accurately judge the transition probabilities between actions in five respective preregistered studies. In all studies, participants accurately predicted the transition probabilities between actions. These predictions drew upon conceptual knowledge of actions – described by the six-dimensional ACT-FASTaxonomy. Together these results indicate that people can accurately anticipate others’ moves in the dance of social life, and that the structure of action knowledge may be tailored to making these accurate predictions.