Are perceived prevalences of infection also biased and how? Lessons from large epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases in tropical regions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jocelyn Raude
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Telephone Surveys ◽  
Behavioral Decision ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Representative Samples ◽  
Actual Prevalence

Objectives: Although people have been repeatedly found to underestimate the frequency of risks to health from common diseases, we still do not know much about reasons for this systematic bias, which is also referred to as “primary bias” in the literature. In this study, we take advantage of a series of large epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases to examine the accuracy of judgments of risk frequencies. In this aim, we assessed the perceived versus the observed prevalence of infection by zika, chikungunya or dengue fever during these outbreaks, as well as their variations among different subpopulations and epidemiological settings.Design: We used data drawn from 4 telephone surveys, conducted between 2006 and 2016, among representative samples of the adult population in tropical regions (Reunion, Martinique, and French Guiana). The participants were asked to estimate the prevalence of these infections by using a natural frequency scale.Results: The surveys showed that (1) most people greatly overestimated the prevalence of infection by arbovirus, (2) these risk overestimations fell considerably as the actual prevalence of these diseases increased, (3) the better-educated and male participants consistently yielded less inaccurate risk estimates across epidemics, and (4) that these biases in the perception of prevalence of these infectious diseases are relatively well predicted by probability weighting function.Conclusions: These findings suggest that the cognitive biases that affect perception of prevalence of acute infectious diseases are not fundamentally different from those that characterize other types of probabilistic judgments observed in the field of behavioral decision-making. They also indicate that numeracy may play a considerable role in people’s ability to transform epidemiological observations from their social environment to more accurate risk estimates.

scholarly journals PROBLEMS FINDING IMPORTED CASE LEPTOSPIROSIS (CLINICAL OBSERVATION)

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-41
Author(s):  
M. A Nikulina ◽  
V. M Granitov ◽  
S. F Tanashkin ◽  
E. V Volchkova ◽  
E. A Nemilostiva
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Respiratory Distress Syndrome ◽  
Respiratory Distress ◽  
Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome ◽  
Respiratory Symptoms ◽  
Clinical Case ◽  
Distress Syndrome ◽  
Clinical Observation ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Imported Case

Leptospirosis can be up to 20-40% of infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and many others occurring in tropical regions. There is presented the description of the clinical case of leptospirosis in a patient arrived from Vietnam. The severity of the patient's disease is associated with an increase in respiratory symptoms and disease caused by the development of adult respiratory distress syndrome, which can occur not less than in 19.0% of patients, mostly in men and lead to the death in 14.2% of patients. Thus, after arrival from tropical countries patients with fever, signs of organ (respiratory, renal, hepatic, etc.) failure are to be tested for leptospirosis.

scholarly journals Validation of 7 Years in-Flight HY-2A Calibration Microwave Radiometer Products Using Numerical Weather Model and Radiosondes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 1616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhilu Wu ◽  
Jungang Wang ◽  
Yanxiong Liu ◽  
Xiufeng He ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Radiosonde Data ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Model ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Interim Products

Haiyang-2A (HY-2A) has been working in-flight for over seven years, and the accuracy of HY-2A calibration microwave radiometer (CMR) data is extremely important for the wet troposphere delay correction (WTC) in sea surface height (SSH) determination. We present a comprehensive evaluation of the HY-2A CMR observation using the numerical weather model (NWM) for all the data available period from October 2011 to February 2018, including the WTC and the precipitable water vapor (PWV). The ERA(ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used for the validation of HY-2A WTC and PWV products. In general, a global agreement of root-mean-square (RMS) of 2.3 cm in WTC and 3.6 mm in PWV are demonstrated between HY-2A observation and ERA-Interim products. Systematic biases are revealed where before 2014 there was a positive WTC/PWV bias and after that, a negative one. Spatially, HY-2A CMR products show a larger bias in polar regions compared with mid-latitude regions and tropical regions and agree better in the Antarctic than in the Arctic with NWM. Moreover, HY-2A CMR products have larger biases in the coastal area, which are all caused by the brightness temperature (TB) contamination from land or sea ice. Temporally, the WTC/PWV biases increase from October 2011 to March 2014 with a systematic bias over 1 cm in WTC and 2 mm in PWV, and the maximum RMS values of 4.62 cm in WTC and 7.61 mm in PWV occur in August 2013, which is because of the unsuitable retrieval coefficients and systematic TB measurements biases from 37 GHz band. After April 2014, the TB bias is corrected, HY-2A CMR products agree very well with NWM from April 2014 to May 2017 with the average RMS of 1.68 cm in WTC and 2.65 mm in PWV. However, since June 2017, TB measurements from the 18.7 GHz band become unstable, which led to the huge differences between HY-2A CMR products and the NWM with an average RMS of 2.62 cm in WTC and 4.33 mm in PWV. HY-2A CMR shows high accuracy when three bands work normally and further calibration for HY-2A CMR is in urgent need. Furtherly, 137 global coastal radiosonde stations were used to validate HY-2A CMR. The validation based on radiosonde data shows the same variation trend in time of HY-2A CMR compared to the results from ECMWF, which verifies the results from ECMWF.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDE AND PRACTICES REGARDING DENGUE FEVER AMONG ADULT POPULATION OF DISTRICT DIR LOWER, KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-74
Author(s):  
Aminullah ◽  
Soaib Ali Hassan ◽  
Ashfaq Ahmed Khawaja Khail ◽  
Abdul Waris ◽  
Gul Alam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Viral Pathogen ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Preventive Practices

Background: Dengue is a major public-health concern throughout globe especially tropical and sub-tropical regions. Dengue fever is transmitted by bite of female mosquito caused by human viral pathogen that belongs to the genus Flavivirus of the family Flaviviridae. World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 50-100 million dengue infections occur each year and that almost half the world's population lives in countries where dengue is endemic. The first confirmed dengue hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Pakistan occurred in 1994. Since then, epidemics of dengue fever have been reported in the region with increasing frequency and expanding geographic distribution.Objectives: To assess the knowledge, attitudes and preventive practices regarding dengue fever among adult population.Methods: This study was a Cross sectional descriptive survey conducted among adult population in Union council Ouch and Chakdarah district Dir Lower, KPK province Pakistan. The study was collected in the months of October to December 2015. Sample size was calculated through sample size formula calculation and total of 419 subjects including male and females were interviewed using a pre-tested structured questionnaire selected through simple random sampling technique.Results: Majority of study population were males (79.3%) and living in houses made of bricks (68.3%). Majority of population was unaware regarding dengue fever transmission, its sign and symptoms and treatment (58.9%). Respondents' main source of information was TV and radio. The study participants consider dengue as a fatal disease and the preventive practices from mosquito bite were recorded as, full clothing (24.4%) followed by use of repellents (10%). Around half of the respondents were using bed net for dengue prevention in which 36% got it from various NGOs working in the district.Conclusion: There is lack of knowledge about dengue fever among the communities. Preventive practices can be improved by increasing knowledge and its translation into sustainable practices.

Analysis of dental care provided to the adult population with infectious diseases in in-patient departments

Stomatologiya ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
A.A. Sorokina ◽  
A.Yu. Lukin ◽  
V.G. Butova ◽  
F.F. Losev ◽  
A.S. Aleinikov
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Dental Care ◽  
Adult Population

scholarly journals The interplay between childhood trauma, cognitive biases, and cannabis use on the risk of psychosis in nonclinical young adults in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorota Frydecka ◽  
Błażej Misiak ◽  
Kamila Kotowicz ◽  
Renata Pionke ◽  
Martyna Krężołek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Childhood Trauma ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Traumatic Events ◽  
Cannabis Use ◽  
Traumatic Experience ◽  
Traumatic Experiences ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background. Childhood traumatic events are risk factors for psychotic-like experiences (PLEs). However, the mechanisms explaining how trauma may contribute to the development of PLEs are not fully understood. In our study, we investigated whether cannabis use and cognitive biases mediate the relationship between early trauma and PLEs. Methods. A total sample of 6,772 young adults (age 26.6 ± 4.7, 2,181 male and 3,433 female) was recruited from the general population to participate in an online survey. We excluded 1,158 individuals due to a self-reported lifetime diagnosis of any mental disorder. The online survey included selected items from the following questionnaires: Traumatic Experience Checklist (TEC, 3 items), Childhood Experience of Care and Abuse Questionnaire (CECA.Q, 3 items), Cannabis Problems Questionnaire (CPQ, 10 items), Davos Assessment of Cognitive Biases Scale (DACOBS-18, 9 items), and Prodromal Questionnaire-16 (PQ-16). Mediation analyses were performed with respect to different categories of traumatic experiences (emotional, physical and sexual abuse as well as emotional neglect). Results. Our results showed significant associations of any time of childhood trauma with higher scores of cannabis use (CPQ), cognitive biases (DACOBS), and PLEs (PQ-16) (p < 0.001). We found a direct effect of childhood trauma on PLEs as well as significant indirect effect mediated through cannabis use and cognitive biases. All models tested for the effects of specific childhood adversities revealed similar results. The percentage of variance in PQ-16 scores explained by serial mediation models varied between 32.8 and 34.2% depending on childhood trauma category. Conclusion. Cannabis use and cognitive biases play an important mediating role in the relationship between childhood traumatic events and the development of PLEs in a nonclinical young adult population.

scholarly journals Systematic review of interventions to promote the performance of physical distancing behaviours during pandemics/epidemics of infectious diseases spread via aerosols or droplets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy Epton ◽  
Daniela Ghio ◽  
Lisa Ballard ◽  
Sarah Allen ◽  
Angelos Kassianos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Physical Environment ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Behaviour Change Techniques ◽  
Narrative Synthesis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
Appraisal Tool ◽  
Representative Samples

ObjectivesPhysical-distancing (i.e., keeping 1-2m apart when co-located) can prevent cases of infectious-diseases spread by droplets/aerosols (i.e. SARS-COV2). Distancing is a recommendation/requirement in many countries. This systematic-review aimed to determine which interventions and behaviour change techniques (BCTs) are effective in promoting adherence to physical-distancing and through which potential mechanisms of action (MOAs). MethodsSix databases were searched for studies of physical-distancing interventions. A narrative synthesis included any design that included a comparator (e.g., pre-intervention versus post-intervention; randomised controlled trial), for any population and year. Risk-of-bias was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. BCTs and potential MoAs were identified in each intervention.. ResultsSix papers of moderate/high quality indicated that distancing interventions could successfully change MoAs/behaviour. Successful BCTs (MoAs) included feedback on behaviour (e.g., motivation); information about/ salience of health consequences (e.g., beliefs about consequences) and demonstration (e.g., beliefs about capabilities) and restructuring the physical environment (e.g., environmental context and resources). The most promising interventions were proximity buzzers, directional systems and posters with loss-framed messages that demonstrated the behaviours. ConclusionsHigh quality RCTs that measure behaviour, have representative samples and specify/test a larger range of BCTs /MoAs are needed.

scholarly journals Problems of Vaccinal Prevention in Adult Population

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 4-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. I. Briko ◽  
N. N. Tsapkova ◽  
L. R. Batyrshina ◽  
V. A. Korshunov ◽  
I. V. Feldblyum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
The World

The analysis of the vaccine preventive status of infectious diseases in adults in Russia and various countries of the world is presented in the  article. The problems and directions of improving the immunization of the adult population in Russia are identified.

Changing social contact patterns under tropical weather conditions relevant for the spread of infectious diseases

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
pp. 440-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.-C. CHAN ◽  
Y.-C. FU ◽  
J.-S. HWANG
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Tropics

SUMMARYWeather conditions and social contact patterns provide some clues to understanding year-round influenza epidemics in the tropics. Recent studies suggest that contact patterns may direct influenza transmission in the tropics as critically as the aerosol channel in temperate regions. To examine this argument, we analysed a representative nationwide survey dataset of contact diaries with comprehensive weather data in Taiwan. Methods we used included model-free estimated relative changes in reproduction number, R0; relative changes in the number of contacts; and model-based estimated relative changes in mean contacts using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Overall, social contact patterns clearly differ by demographics (such as age groups), personal idiosyncrasies (such as personality and happiness), and social institutions (such as the division of weekdays and weekend days). Further, weather conditions also turn out to be closely linked to contact patterns under various circumstances. Fleeting contacts, for example, tend to diminish when it rains hard on weekdays, while physical contacts also decrease during weekend days with heavy rain. Frequent social contacts on weekdays and under good weather conditions, including high temperature and low absolute humidity, all might facilitate the transmission of infectious diseases in tropical regions.

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