scholarly journals Ticket Splitting in a Nationalized Era

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiro Kuriwaki
Keyword(s):  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Party Loyalty ◽  
Party Line ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Post War

Many believe that party loyalty in U.S. elections has reached heights unprecedented in the post-war era, although this finding relies on evidence from presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections. If party labels are a heuristic, we would expect party-line voting to be even more dominant in lower-information elections. Yet, here I show that the prevalence of ticket splitting in state and local offices is often similar to or higher than in national offices because of larger incumbency advantages and starker candidate valence differentials. Because neither surveys nor election returns have been able to reliably measure individual vote choice in downballot races, I introduce an underused source of voter data: cast vote records. I create a database from voting machines that reveals the vote choices of 6.6 million voters for all offices on the long ballot, and I design a clustering algorithm tailored to such ballot data. In contrast to ticket splitting rates of 5 to 7 percent in US House races, about 15 to 20 percent of voters split their ticket in a modal Sheriff race. Even in a nationalized politics, a fraction of voters still cross party lines to vote for the more experienced candidate in state and local elections.

The Impact of Religion on Voting For Female Congressional Candidates

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 679-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Setzler ◽  
Alixandra B. Yanus
Keyword(s):  
Vote Choice ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
National State ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
Evangelical Protestants ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mixed Gender

AbstractResearch shows that areas with high levels of aggregate religiosity are less likely to elect female candidates to national, state, and local offices. These studies, however, do not determine the causal mechanisms underlying this relationship. In the present analysis, we seek to examine what role, if any, religious exposure and tradition play in determining individuals’ general election vote choices in mixed-gender contests. To explore this relationship, we use data from the 2010 and 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies. We find some evidence of a relationship between religious beliefs and voting for female congressional candidates; when compared to secular voters, evangelical Protestants and Catholics are more likely to vote for Republican women and less likely to support Democratic women. Our results, however, also underscore partisan identities’ central role in shaping individual vote choice, regardless of a candidate's gender.

Religion and the State in Post-war Taiwan

2003 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 395-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Katz
Keyword(s):  
Local Community ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
The State ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Complex Relationship ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Academic Organizations ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Post War

This article explores the development of local religious traditions in post-war Taiwan, particularly since the ending of martial law in 1987. It focuses on the factors underlying the ongoing popularity of temple cults to local deities such as Mazu (originally the goddess of the sea, now worshipped as an all-powerful protective deity) and the Royal Lords (Wangye; plague deities now invoked to counter all manner of calamities). Special attention is devoted to the complex relationship between local community-based religious traditions and the state, including the loosening of restrictions on festivals, the use of temples as sites for political rallies during local elections, and the recent controversy over attempts to stage direct pilgrimages to mainland China. Other issues include debates over the “indigenization” of religious traditions in Taiwan and the growth of academic organizations devoted to the study of Taiwanese religion.

Casualties and Incumbents: Do the Casualties from Interstate Conflicts Affect Incumbent Party Vote Share?

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 795-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Koch
Keyword(s):  
International Conflict ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Investment Model ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Cross National

Research suggests that the costs of international conflict (e.g. casualties) alter public opinion, executive approval and policy positions of elected officials. However, do casualties affect voting in terms of aggregate outcomes and individual vote choices? This article examines how casualties from interstate conflicts affect voter behaviour, specifically incumbent vote share. Using the investment model of commitment to model individual vote choice, it is argued that increases in the costs of conflict (i.e., more casualties) can increase the probability that voters will support the incumbent, increasing incumbent vote share. This model is tested with both cross-national aggregate data from twenty-three countries and individual-level British survey data. The results support the argument.

scholarly journals The Philippine Political Party System

1967 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl H. Lande
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party System ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Minor Parties ◽  
Political Party System ◽  
Post War ◽  
Senatorial Elections

The main characteristics of the Philippine political party system since the achievement of Philippine independence in 1946 have been the following:1. It is a two party system. Two major parties, the Nacionalistas and the Liberals, dominate the scene. Their nation-wide combined vote at the six post-war presidential elections held since 1946 averaged 94 per cent of the votes cast. At both the eleven senatorial elections and the six elections for members of the House of Representatives held during the same period, the combined two-party vote was also 94 per cent. At the five gubernatorial elections held since 1947, the corresponding figure was 97 per cent.* In none of these election years did the combined two-party vote for any of these offices fall below 70 per cent.1 While minor parties have appeared from time to time, few have remained active for an extended period of years, and none has seriously threatened to replace either of the two existing major parties as the governing party or as the principal party of the opposition.

scholarly journals A Clustering Approach for Characterizing Voter Types: An Application to High-Dimensional Ballot and Survey Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiro Kuriwaki
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Palm Beach County ◽  
Spatial Voting ◽  
Clustering Approach ◽  
Swing Voters ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Spatial Voting Model

Large-scale ballot and survey data hold the potential to uncover the prevalence of swing voters and strong partisans in the electorate. However, existing approaches either employ exploratory analyses that fail to fully leverage the information available in high-dimensional data, or impose a one-dimensional spatial voting model. I derive a clustering algorithm which better captures the probabilistic way in which theories of political behavior conceptualize the swing voter. Building from the canonical finite mixture model, I tailor the model to vote data, for example by allowing uncontested races. I apply this algorithm to actual ballots in the Florida 2000 election and a multi-state survey in 2018. In Palm Beach County, I find that up to 60 percent of voters were straight ticket voters; in the 2018 survey, even higher. The remaining groups of the electorate were likely to cross the party line and split their ticket, but not monolithically: swing voters were more likely to swing for state and local candidates and popular incumbents.

Mexico's main parties will dominate state elections

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
General Election ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State And Local

Significance In June and July, states will elect a total of 548 local government heads and 388 congress representatives. An unprecedented 30 independent gubernatorial candidates are registered -- up from five in last year's races. They will contest nine governorships in what will be the last batch of ordinary state and local elections to take place before the general election in 2018. Impacts Without the support of large parties in Congress, any independents who win will have difficulty delivering on their campaign promises. The mixed record of PAN-PRD alliances will make them less attractive than in the 2010 elections. The election outcome will be taken as an indication of the chances of each party in the 2018 general election.

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