Trends of Climate Change in Some Selected Districts of Western Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 148-158
Author(s):  
Rajedra Prasad Upadhayaya ◽  
Madhab Prasad Baral
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Global Rate ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Floods And Droughts ◽  
Global Threat

Climate change is a global threat that has particularly strong impacts on countries whose economies are highly dependent on agriculture and still developing--like Nepal. The main objective of this study is to assess the trend of climate change in Gandaki Province, Nepal. This study is based on secondary data. It utilizes the data from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology between 1970- 2018 based on eight districts with 10 different stations ranging from 110m. to 2680m. in Gandaki Province. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope is used to find the trend. The analyses reveal that trend of maximum temperature is increasing and significant. The maximum temperature trend is 0.08°C/year in monsoon and post-monsoon which is greater than the global rate. The minimum temperature trend is positive and significant and is highest in the monsoon season (0.04°C/year). The trend of the average rainfall sum is insignificant and is positive only in pre-monsoon and negative in other seasons, which indicates erratic rainfall that causes floods and droughts.

scholarly journals Hydro-Climatic Variability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

Climate ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kabi Khatiwada ◽  
Jeeban Panthi ◽  
Madan Shrestha ◽  
Santosh Nepal
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Data

Global climate change has local implications. Focusing on datasets from the topographically-challenging Karnali river basin in Western Nepal, this research provides an overview of hydro-climatic parameters that have been observed during 1981–2012. The spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation were analyzed in the basin considering the seven available climate stations and 20 precipitation stations distributed in the basin. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s method were used to study the trends in climate data. Results show that the average precipitation in the basin is heterogeneous, and more of the stations trend are decreasing. The precipitation shows decreasing trend by 4.91 mm/year, i.e., around 10% on average. Though the increasing trends were observed in both minimum and maximum temperature, maximum temperature trend is higher than the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature trend during the pre-monsoon season is significantly higher (0.08 °C/year). River discharge and precipitation observations were analyzed to understand the rainfall-runoff relationship. The peak discharge (August) is found to be a month late than the peak precipitation (July) over the basin. Although the annual precipitation in most of the stations shows a decreasing trend, there is constant river discharge during the period 1981–2010.

scholarly journals Temperature Changes in Kaski District of Nepal: A Study of Trends (1970-2018)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 42-53
Author(s):  
Rajendra Prasad Upadhayaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Average Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Climate change is one of the most complex and crucial issues in the world. It has impacted environmental, social, and economic sectors of our planet. Unsurprisingly, Nepal is not immune to climate change. In fact, it is one of the most susceptible countries to climate change. One of the most impacted variables in Nepal due to climate change is the maximum temperature. The rate of change of temperature per year, in Nepal is ever-increasing. This paper examines the temperature trend and how it has affected environmental, social, and economic sustainability of Kaski District in Nepal. The paper utilizes the maximum temperature trend of Kaski District during 1970-2018. The monthly minimum and maximum temperatures are obtained from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). The study is done based on the data obtained from Pokhara Airport and Lumle stations. The paper uses three statistical tools alongside descriptive statistics to analyze the data. First, the Man-Kendall test is used to figure out the trend of temperature. Second, Sen’s slope is used to find the magnitude of a trend. Third, the Time series model has been used for forecasting temperature trends. Finally, SPSS and R software were used to calculate the results. The trend of maximum temperature has been significantly increased in Kaski District. The maximum temperature in Kaski during 1970-2018, recorded, was 24.99°C in 2005 and was closely followed by 24.66°C temperature in 2010. The average maximum temperature during the 1970-2018 period was 23.49°C. The maximum variation of maximum temperature during 1970-2018 was in 1992 with a standard deviation of 5.94°C. The minimum temperature during 1970-2018 was 21.12°C in 1978 and was closely followed by 22.19°C in 1997. There is an increasing trend of maximum temperature in Kaski District. In addition, the trend of maximum temperature is higher and faster after 1998 in Kaski District of Western Nepal during 1970-2018.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽  
Shree Chandra Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

scholarly journals Sensitivitas Produksi Padi Terhadap Perubahan Iklim Di Indonesia Tahun 1974-2015

Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanti Nurhayanti ◽  
Moko Nugroho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Simple Simulation ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The occurrence of climate change disrupts the productivity of paddy in Indonesia. Disruption of the paddy’s production has an impact on the availability of foodstuffs, considering paddy as staple food Indonesia society. This study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on productivity of paddy in the central acreage of paddy in period 1974-2015 by using four different climate variables. The data used are secondary data collected from Agency of Central for Statistics (BPS), Ministry of Agriculture, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Estimation method using data panels with Random Effect models (REM). The results showed the productivity of paddy in Indonesia are more sensitive to changes in rainfall and maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to the average temperature (Tave) and the minimum temperature (Tmin). Increased rainfall and Tmax positively impact the productivity of paddy until a specific turning point, then after that point will give the opposite impact. As for the turning point for the precipitation of 10,177 Inc./year, while Tmax on 31,35 °C. Simple simulation results demonstrate the increase in rainfall in the upper turning point of 1 % will reduce the productivity of paddy amounted 0,00796 % ceteris peribus. While the maximum temperature rise above the turning point of 1 % will reduce the productivity of paddy as much as 0,09039% ceteris peribus.

scholarly journals Effect of climate change and deforestation on vector borne diseases in the North-Eastern Indian state of Mizoram bordering Myanmar

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balasubramani Karuppusamy ◽  
Devojit Kumar Sarma ◽  
Pachuau Lalmalsawma ◽  
Lalfakzuala Pautu ◽  
Krishanpal Karmodiya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Vector Borne

Abstract Background Malaria and dengue are the two major vector-borne diseases in Mizoram. Malaria is endemic in Mizoram, and dengue was first reported only in 2012. It is well documented that climate change has a direct influence on the incidence and spread of vector-borne diseases. The study was designed to study the trends and impact of climate variables (temperature, rainfall and humidity) in the monsoon period (May to September) and deforestation on the incidence of dengue and malaria in Mizoram. Methods Temperature, rainfall and humidity data of Mizoram from 1979–2013 were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and analyzed. Forest cover data of Mizoram was extracted from India State of Forest Report (IFSR) and Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Centre. Percent tree cover datasets of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer missions were also used to study the association between deforestation and incidence of vector-borne diseases. The study used non-parametric tests to estimate long-term trends in the climate (temperature, rainfall, humidity) and forest cover variables. The trend and its magnitude are estimated through Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope method. Year-wise dengue and malaria data were obtained from the State Vector Borne Disease Control Program, Mizoram. Results The Mann-Kendall test indicates that compared to maximum temperature, minimum temperature during the monsoon period is increasing (p < 0.001). The Sen’s slope estimation also shows an average annual 0.020C (0.01–0.03 at 95% CI) monotonic increasing trend of minimum temperature. The residuals of Sen’s estimate show that temperature is increasing at an average of about 0.10C/year after 2007.Trends indicate that both rainfall and humidity are increasing (p <. 0.001); on an average, there is a 20.45 mm increase in monsoon rainfall per year (5.90–34.37 at 95% CI), while there is a 0.08% (0.02–0.18 at 95% CI) increase in relative humidity annually. IFSR data shows that there is an annual average decrease of 162 sq.km (272.81–37.53 at 95% CI, p < 0.001) in the dense forest cover. Mizoram in 2012 was the last state in India to report the incidence of dengue. Malaria transmission continues to be stable in Mizoram; compared to 2007, the cases have increased in 2019. Conclusion Over the study period, there is an ~ 0.80C rise in the minimum temperature in the monsoon season which could have facilitated the establishment of Aedes aegypti, the major dengue vector in Mizoram. In addition, the increase in rainfall and humidity may have also helped the biology of Ae. aegypti. Deforestation could be one of the major factors responsible for the consistently high number of malaria cases in Mizoram.

Monotonic Trend Analysis of Temperature Series over Mandya City, Karnataka

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VII) ◽  
pp. 1530-1535
Author(s):  
Madhusudhan M S
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Temperature Series ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Monotonic Trend ◽  
Indirect Impacts

Climate change is mostly driven by global warming. Climate change is one of the most critical long-term development issues, particularly for developing countries like India. India is one of the world's most climatically diverse countries, making it sensitive to climatic change and impacting the livelihoods of millions of people who rely on agriculture. Temperature and its fluctuation have direct and indirect impacts on crop development in the agricultural sector. Understanding the temperature and its variability in a changing environment would aid in improved decision-making and suggest feasible adaption strategies. The present study focuses on temperature trend analysis in Mandya city, Karnataka, India. The analysis was carried out through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. The findings demonstrate that, there has been a rising trend in temperature in the study area over the last 30 years as a result of climate change. From the analysis, there is a significant positive trend for all the seasons considered for the significance level of 90%, 95% and 99%. The magnitude of the increasing trend will be in the range of 0.46 °C/year for the average time series. Also, there will be an average increase of 0.07 °C/year for the various scenarios considered in Mandya city for the Maximum temperature series.

scholarly journals Role of Maximum Entropy and Citizen Science to Study Habitat Suitability of Jacobin Cuckoo in Different Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Priyanka Singh ◽  
Sameer Saran ◽  
Sultan Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Recent advancements in spatial modelling and mapping methods have opened up new horizons for monitoring the migration of bird species, which have been altered due to the climate change. The rise of citizen science has also aided the spatiotemporal data collection with associated attributes. The biodiversity data from citizen observatories can be employed in machine learning algorithms for predicting suitable environmental conditions for species’ survival and their future migration behaviours. In this study, different environmental variables effective in birds’ migrations were analysed, and their habitat suitability was assessed for future understanding of their responses in different climate change scenarios. The Jacobin cuckoo (Clamator jacobinus) was selected as the subject species, since their arrival to India has been traditionally considered as a sign for the start of the Indian monsoon season. For suitability predictions in current and future scenarios, maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling was carried out with environmental variables and species occurrences observed in India and Africa. For modelling, the correlation test was performed on the environmental variables (bioclimatic, precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, wind and elevation). The results showed that precipitation-related variables played a significant role in suitability, and through reclassified habitat suitability maps, it was observed that the suitable areas of India and Africa might decrease in future climatic scenarios (SSPs 2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5) of 2030 and 2050. In addition, the suitability and unsuitability areas were calculated (in km2) to observe the subtle changes in the ecosystem. Such climate change studies can support biodiversity research and improve the agricultural economy.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF LONG TERM CLIMATIC VARIABILITY OF UTTARAKHAND

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujeet Kumar ◽  
Shakti Suryavanshi
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Increasing Trend

A trend analysis was performed for historic (1901-2002) climatic variables (Rainfall, Maximum Temperature and Minimum Temperature) of Uttarakhand State located in Northern India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann-Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, prewhitening is utilized before employing the MK test. The results of this study indicated a declining trend of rainfall in monsoon season for seven out of thirteen districts of Uttarakhand state. However, an increasing trend was observed in Haridwar and Udhamsingh Nagar districts for summer season rainfall. For maximum and minimum temperature, a few districts exhibited a declining trend in monsoon season whereas many districts exhibited an increasing trend in winter and summer season. Mountain dominated areas (as Uttarakhand state) are specific ecosystems, distinguished by their diversity, sensitivity and intricacy. Thus the variability of rainfall and temperature has a severe and rapid impact on mountainous ecosystems. Nevertheless, mountains have significant impacts on hydrology, which may further threaten populations living in the mountain areas as well as in adjacent, lowland regions.

scholarly journals Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature over Different Districts of Karnataka: An Aid to Climate Change Detection and Cropping System Option

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
S. Sridhara ◽  
Pradeep Gopakkali ◽  
R. Nandini
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Land Preparation ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Increasing Trend

Aims: To know the rainfall and temperature trend for all the districts of Karnataka state to develop suitable coping mechanisms for changing weather conditions during the cropping season. Study Design: The available daily data of rainfall (1971-2011) and minimum and maximum temperature (1971-2007) for each district was collected from NICRA-ICAR website. A non-parametric model such as the Mann-Kendall (MK) test complemented with Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the magnitude of the trend. Place and Duration of Study: The rainfall data of 41 years (1971-2011) and temperature data of 37 years (1971-2007) was collected for all 27 districts of Karnataka. Methodology: Basic statistics related to rainfall like mean, standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage contribution to annual rainfall were computed for monthly and season-wise. Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trend for rainfall as well as temperature. Results: An increasing trend in rainfall during winter, monsoon and annual basis for all most all the districts of Karnataka and decreasing trend of rainfall during pre and post-monsoon season was noticed. An early cessation of rainfall during September month in all most all the districts of Karnataka was observed. Similarly, monthly mean, maximum and the minimum temperature had shown an increasing trend over the past 37 years for all the districts of Karnataka. Conclusion: The more variation in rainfall during the pre-monsoon season was observed, which is more important for land preparation and other operations. The increasing trend of maximum and minimum temperature throughout the year may often cause a reduction in crop yield. It is necessary to change crops with its short duration varieties in order to avoid late season drought.

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