scholarly journals Sensitivitas Produksi Padi Terhadap Perubahan Iklim Di Indonesia Tahun 1974-2015

Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanti Nurhayanti ◽  
Moko Nugroho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Simple Simulation ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The occurrence of climate change disrupts the productivity of paddy in Indonesia. Disruption of the paddy’s production has an impact on the availability of foodstuffs, considering paddy as staple food Indonesia society. This study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on productivity of paddy in the central acreage of paddy in period 1974-2015 by using four different climate variables. The data used are secondary data collected from Agency of Central for Statistics (BPS), Ministry of Agriculture, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Estimation method using data panels with Random Effect models (REM). The results showed the productivity of paddy in Indonesia are more sensitive to changes in rainfall and maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to the average temperature (Tave) and the minimum temperature (Tmin). Increased rainfall and Tmax positively impact the productivity of paddy until a specific turning point, then after that point will give the opposite impact. As for the turning point for the precipitation of 10,177 Inc./year, while Tmax on 31,35 °C. Simple simulation results demonstrate the increase in rainfall in the upper turning point of 1 % will reduce the productivity of paddy amounted 0,00796 % ceteris peribus. While the maximum temperature rise above the turning point of 1 % will reduce the productivity of paddy as much as 0,09039% ceteris peribus.

scholarly journals Community Adaptation Model of Food Security Due to Global Warming in Kulon Progo

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Rum Giyarsih
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) average temperature of the Earth’s surface was global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the 0.74 ± 0.18 0C (1.33 ± 0.32 F) over the last hundred years. The impact of rising temperatures is the climate change effect on agricultural production. If the community does not craft made adaptation to global warming will have an impact on food security. This research aims to know the society’s adaptation to food security as a result of global warming and to know the influence of global warming on food security. The research was carried out based on survey methods. The influence of global warming on food security is identified with a share of household food expenditure and the identification of rainfall. Sampling was done by random sampling. The Data used are the primary and secondary data. Primary Data obtained through structured interviews and depth interview using a questionnaire while the secondary data retrieved from publication data of the Central Bureau Statistics B(BPS), Department of Agriculture and Climatology Meteorology and Geophysics (BMKG). The expected results of the study is to know variations of food security due to global warming in Kulon Progo Regency. Comprehensive knowledge through community participation and related Government increased food security that is used as the basis for drafting the model society’s adaptation to the impacts of global warming.

scholarly journals Climatology of Discomfort Index for Decade in Bandar Lampung, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lailatus Siami ◽  
Anindita Ramadhani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Discomfort Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Climate change as certain phenomena has occurred globally and the impact feels by people especially for those who live on the island. Weather pattern shifting is one of the evidence of climate change impact, and many scientists are still trying to prove it. Weather affected by a combination of temperature, relativity humidity, etc. The fact that those parameters closely related to the need of health especially temperature and relative humidity and well-known thermal scale grouped in a range called discomfort index (DI). This study aims to analyze the outdoor condition in Bandar Lampung by figure out discomfort index. Weather parameter collected from secondary data of Teluk Betung weather station from 2007 – 2017 in three levels of high, average and low condition. In that period, temperature and humidity in Bandar Lampung relatively stable between 20-35∘C and 50-100%. In general, the city encountered with varies conditions by high temperature above 29∘C and high relative humidity more than 85%. Meanwhile, DI changes from year to year are not significantly occurred that indicates in high temperature, average and low weather are everyone feels severe stress, more than 50% of people feel discomfort, and comfortable condition. Nevertheless, every year it already shows an uncomfortable situation especially in high temperature and even at an average temperature. Furthermore, the study needs to compare with other weather stations in Bandar Lampung.

scholarly journals Climate change and its influence on design rainfall at-site in New South Wales State, Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 251-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Hajani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Relative Differences ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantification of rainfall is needed for planning, designing and operation of water engineering projects. Although there is lot of research on design rainfall in the literature, there is a lack of research considering the impact of climate change on design rainfall. This study focuses on the assessment of the impact of climate changes on design rainfall using data from New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Future stationary and non-stationary intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) curves have been estimated using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The maximum-likelihood estimation method is employed to estimate the parameters of the GEV models. It has been found that the consideration of the climatic change on the rainfall data of the selected station confirms that the simulation exhibits non-stationary behaviour on the IFD curve data. In addition, the results show that when the future period increases, the relative differences between the stationary and non-stationary IFD curves generally increase. Comparison of the new IFD curves estimated in this study with the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) IFD curves demonstrates that there is a better match between the ARR IFD curves and the new stationary IFD curves compared with the non-stationary IFD curves.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Sadia Alam Shammi ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

scholarly journals Spatial-temporal changes in river runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Zhai ◽  
Fulu Tao ◽  
Zhihui Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 ℃ above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 ℃, it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios by four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006–2015), 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios (2106–2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on river runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR) in China. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, river runoff and TEWR were analysed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that there were large uncertainties in climate scenarios from the different GCMs, which led to large uncertainties in the impact assessment. The differences among the four GCMs were larger than differences between the two warming scenarios. The interannual variability of river runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from 1.5 ℃ warming scenario to 2.0 ℃ warming scenario. By contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable. Both extreme low and high river runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas in China, with high river runoff increasing more. And the risk of extreme river runoff events would be higher under 2.0 ℃ warming scenario than under 1.5 ℃ warming scenario in term of both extent and intensity. River runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation, while increase in maximum temperature would generally cause river runoff to decrease through increasing evapotranspiration. Likewise, precipitation also played a dominant role in affecting TEWR. Our findings highlight climate change mitigation and adaptation should be taken to reduce the risks of hydrological extreme events.

scholarly journals Analysis Of Effect Of ZIS (Zakat, Infaq, And Shadaqah), Regional Domestic Products Of Bruto, Regional Minimum Wage And Inflation On Levels Poverty In Indonesia 2012 – 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-211
Author(s):  
Fiky Nila Mustika ◽  
Eni Setyowati ◽  
Azhar Alam
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Random Effect Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Minimum Wages ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poverty Levels ◽  
Domestic Products

This study investigated the impact of ZIS (Zakat, Infaq, and Sadaqah) Gross Regional Domestic Products, Regional Minimum Wages, and Inflation on Poverty Levels in Indonesia during the 2012-2016 period. .This paper used secondary data in the panel data form. This research conducted a quantitative approach using panel data regression. Based on the results of the panel data testing, the best model chosen is the Random Effect Model (REM). Variables of gross regional domestic products and regional minimum wages have a significant effect on poverty levels in Indonesia while the variables of zakat, infaq, and shadaqah (ZIS) and inflation do not influence the level of poverty in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Impact of meteorological factors on number of new COVID-19 cases in Pune

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 4307
Author(s):  
Saurabh Mahajan ◽  
Ravi Devarakonda ◽  
Gautam Mukherjee ◽  
Nisha Verma ◽  
Kumar Pushkar
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Daily Number ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Indian Meteorological Department ◽  
The Impact

Background: Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that can result in different types of illnesses, most commonly, as Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Researches have shown that the atmospheric variables and the density of population have affected the transmission of the disease. Meteorological variables like temperature, humidity among others have found to affect the rise of pandemic in positive or negative ways.  Respiratory virus illnesses have shown seasonal variability since the time they have been discovered and managed. This study investigated the relationship between the meteorological variables of temperature, humidity and precipitation in the spread of COVID-19 disease in the city of Pune.Methods: This record based descriptive study is conducted after secondary data analysis of number of new cases of COVID-19 per day from the period 01 May to 24 December 2020 in Pune. Meteorological data of maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and daily average temperature (Tavg), humidity and precipitation were daily noted from Indian meteorological department website. Trend was identified plotting the daily number of clinically diagnosed cases over time period. Pearson’s correlation was used to estimate association between meteorological variables and daily detected fresh cases of COVID-19 disease.  Results: Analysis revealed significant negative correlation (r=-0.3563, p<0.005) between daily detected number of cases and maximum daily temperature. A strong positive correlation was seen between humidity and daily number of cases (r=0.5541, p<0.005).Conclusions: The findings of this study will aid in forecasting epidemics and in preparing for the impact of climate change on the COVID epidemiology through the implementation of public health preventive measures.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PENYEDERHANAAN STRUKTUR TARIF CUKAI SPESIFIK TERHADAP KONSUMSI ROKOK

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Indah Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Random Effect Model ◽  
Rate Structure ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Structure Simplification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Unbalanced Panel Data

ABSTRACT:  This study is conducted to estimate the impact of the increase in regular and specific excise rates structure simplification on cigar's consumption through its price. Using data in 2015 and applying random effect model for unbalanced panel data on Sigaret Kretek Mesin-type and Sigaret Kretek Tangan-type of the cigar, this study compares the impact of price increases due to both specific excise rate structure simplification and regular increase on the excise rate in cigar’s consumption. The results indicate that increase in the specific excise rate structure simplification has a lower impact on raising cigar’s prices than regular excise rate increases. Furthermore, the impact of price increases due to the specific excise rate structure simplification is greater in reducing cigar’s consumption than the price increases due to regular excise rate increases. In addition, it is found that the average price of Sigaret Kretek Mesin-type is lower and has an average consumption that is much higher than Sigaret Kretek Tangan-type. Overall, this result suggests that the specific excise rate structure simplification's policy should be continued in order to reduce cigar's consumption.Keywords: specific excise rate structure simplification, cigar’s consumption, random effects modelABSTRAK:  Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh kenaikan tarif cukai biasa maupun spesifik terhadap konsumsi rokok melalui harga jual ecerannya. Rokok yang digunakan adalah rokok jenis Sigaret Kretek Mesin (SKM) dan Sigaret Kretek Tangan (SKT). Dengan menggunakan data tahun 2015 dan menerapkan random effect pada unbalanced panel data, penelitian ini membandingkan pengaruh kenaikan harga jual eceran akibat penyederhanaan struktur tarif cukai spesifik dan kenaikan tarif cukai biasa terhadap konsumsi rokok. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penyederhanaan struktur tarif cukai spesifik berpengaruh lebih rendah terhadap kenaikan harga jual eceran rokok dibandingkan dengan akibat kenaikan tarif biasa. Lebih lanjut, pengaruh kenaikan harga jual eceran akibat penyederhanaan struktur tarif cukai spesifik lebih besar dalam mengurangi konsumsi rokok dibandingkan kenaikan harga jual eceran akibat kenaikan tarif cukai biasa. Selain itu ditemukan bahwa harga jual eceran rata-rata rokok jenis Sigaret Kretek Mesin (SKM) lebih rendah dan mempunyai rata-rata konsumsi yang jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan rokok jenis Sigaret Kretek Tangan (SKT). Secara menyeluruh, temuan ini menyarankan agar kebijakan penyederhanaan struktur tarif cukai perlu dilanjutkan karena efektif untuk mengurangi konsumsi rokok. Kata kunci: Penyederhanaan struktur tarif cukai spesifik, konsumsi rokok, random effects model.   

scholarly journals Impacts of Storm Surges on a Changing Climate: a Global Bibliometric Analysis of the Coastal Zone

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karine Bastos Leal ◽  
Luís Eduardo de Souza Robaina ◽  
André de Souza De Lima
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bibliometric Analysis ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
R Package ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Coastal Research

Abstract An increase in the global mean sea is predicted during the 21st century as a consequence of global average temperature projections. In addition, changes in the strength of atmospheric cyclonic storms may alter the development of storm surges, exacerbating the risks to coastal communities. Based on the fact that the interest and range of papers are growing on this topic, this study aims to present the global scientific production status of studies that have correlated climate change and the impact of storm surges on the coastal zone leading to erosion and flooding (inundation) via a bibliometric analysis. We analyzed 429 papers published in journals between 1991 and February 2021 from the Scopus database. Through the VOSviewer and Bibliometrix R package, we describe the most relevant countries, affiliations, journals, authors, and keywords. Our results demonstrate that there has been an exponential growth in the research topic, and that authors from the United States and the United Kingdom are the most prolific. Among the 1454 authors found, 10 researchers published at least 5 papers on the topic and obtained at least 453 citations in the period. The most represented journals were the Journal of Coastal Research, Climatic Change, and Natural Hazards. We also found, and discuss, the lack of standardization in the choice of keywords, of which climate change, storm surge, and sea level rise are the most frequent. Finally, we have written a guide to facilitate the authors' bibliographic review.

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