Modelowanie dzietności: adaptacja modelu Lee–Cartera

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wojciech Otto ◽  
Jagoda Niemczynowicz
Keyword(s):  
Direct Relationship ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
First Child ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Mortality Modelling ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Carter Model

We present modified Lee–Carter models for modelling fertility. We analyse Polish Central Statistical Office data on total births by age of mothers in Poland from 1971 to 2018 and the age of mothers at the moment of giving birth to the first child in Poland from 1971 to 2017. Although Lee–Carter model was designed for mortality modelling and forecasting, we adapt it to highlight a direct relationship between the model parameters and the evolution of gross reproduction rate and the average age of giving birth to the first child, both in cross-sectional and cohort view.

scholarly journals SPOŻYCIE OWOCÓW W POLSCE – ANALIZA NA PODSTAWIE JEDNORÓWNANIOWYCH NIELINIOWYCH MODELI EKONOMETRYCZNYCH

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Dorosz ◽  
Hanna Dudek
Keyword(s):  
Power Function ◽  
Exponential Function ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Income Quintile ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Basic Goods ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office

The article dealt with an assessment of the fit of typical non-linear demand models for fruit. The power function, the exponential function with the inverse and the Törnquist function for the basic goods were used in the econometric analysis. The models were estimated on the basis of income quintile groups’ data published by the Central Statistical Office. Based on the estimated model parameters, income elasticities of demand were calculated. It was found that the models described by the power function and the Törnquist function for basic goods were characterized by a better goodness of fit than the models using the exponential function with the inverse.

scholarly journals Determinants of the quality of life in municipalities of Kielce district

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (146) ◽  
pp. 21-35
Author(s):  
Katarzyna BRZOZOWSKA-RUP ◽  
◽  
Roksana CZAJA ◽  
Agnieszka PIOTROWSKA-PIĄTEK ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Positive Tendency ◽  
Synthetic Indicator ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Material Requirement ◽  
Central Statistical Office

Purpose: Identifying the factors that significantly affect the quality of life of the residents of 11 municipalities of the Kielce poviat based on a synthetic indicator. 12 Design/methodology/approach: The method used in the paper is create a synthetic indicator 13 designed using a taxonomic method and the estimation of the logistic regression model. 14 Data of the Central Statistical Office concerning the years 2014-2018 were used in the 15 calculations. 16 Findings: The obtained values of the TMR (Total Material Requirement) indicator suggest that 17 in the Kielce poviat the quality of life of the residents of individual municipalities is very 18 diverse. At the same time, a common positive tendency is observed, manifested in the trend 19 indicating an improvement in the quality of life in each of the municipalities in the examined 20 period. The constructed indicator was used to estimate the regression model for cross-sectional 21 data from 2018. 22 Originality/value: The estimated models allowed to formulate conclusions concerning the 23 impact of particular exp

Hubungan Antara Menyusui Dengan Involusi Uterus Pada Ibu Nifas Fisiologis Di RSIA Aura Syifa Kabupaten Kediri

1970 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Eny Sendra ◽  
Dewi Indriani
Keyword(s):  
Breast Feeding ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Fisher Test ◽  
Key Word ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
The Moment

Breast feeding is giving milk to be drunk to the baby from the breast. Uterus involution is a process how the uterus return to the condition back, before pregnanting after bearing. At the moment of suckling, happens a stimulus and brings the hormones out, such as oksitosin uses not only to stimulate some muscles constraction but also to stimulate the uterus, so that the process of uterus involution happens foster. According to the explanations above, the research aimed to know about the correlation between breast feeding and uterus involution. This research’s design was, cross sectional by the population of all childbirth mothers approximately 50 persons / month. By using accidental sampling technique we got 21 sample respondents. The place of research in RSIA Aura Syifa in Kediri Regency on 16th until 22nd of June 2009. From this research’s result, we got 14 persons (66,67%) with normal uterus involution, suckled in a good way, one person (4,67%) with normal uterus involution, suckled in a wrong way, 2 persons (9,52%) with abnormal uterus involution, suckled in a good way and 4 persons (19,05%) with abnormal uterus involution, suckled in a wrong way. Statistic test which used chi-square test, counted the probability frequency in advance, from that we got 3 columns with the score, less than 5, so that chi-square can not be continued and by doing exact fisher test, the score was 0,001. Because P with the grade mistake 0,05 smaller, so the conclusion was “Ho” is rejected, it meant “there was correlation between suckling and uterus involution”. Key Word : Breast feeding, uterus involution

To Show, But Not to Disclose. The Willingness of Polish Political Parties to Disclose Information On their Structures

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
Ewa Skrabacz
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
Information Bulletin ◽  
The Public ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Election Manifestos ◽  
Internal Structures ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office

AbstractConstituting the key element of a democratic system, political parties are among entities obliged by the Polish legislator to comply with the principle of disclosure by providing public information. The main objective of this paper is to determine the level of Polish political parties’ disclosure, understood here as their willingness to disclose information on their own structures. It seems that the practice of disclosing such basic organizational data may constitute a specific measure of Polish political parties’ respect for the idea of disclosure. The subject matter of the conducted research was particular parties’ sites in the Public Information Bulletin as well as their official websites. An attempt was made to acquire data concerning party structures by way of direct contact with particular parties’ organizational units – questionnaires were sent to both central and regional/district organizational units. In order to acquire a wider perspective, the research also included data provided by the Central Statistical Office concerning political parties’ organizational structures and election manifestos. The conducted analysis was summarized in the form of a ranking of the examined political parties based on a proposed political party disclosure index. This attempt to measure disclosure on the basis of data on internal structures provided by parties themselves is of a preliminary character which, nevertheless, makes it possible to capture the general properties of the phenomenon under analysis. Among the examined parties, it is PSL, SLD, and PO that, to an acceptable degree, follow the principle of disclosure in the analysed scope (indexes at the level of 60%-80% of the maximum value). Four other parties, i.e. N, Wolność, Razem, and Kukiz’15, are on the edge of the zone making it possible to regard their disclosure as sufficient (indexes at the level of around 50% of the maximum value). In the case of PiS, whose index does not reach 20% of the maximum value, it should be concluded that this party implements the principle of disclosure at a minimum level. The ranking did not show relationships between parties’ willingness towards providing information and their sizes or positions on the political scene (parliamentary parties vs. extra-parliamentary parties).

The Development of Agritourism in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship in the Light of International and National Conditions

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 244-261
Author(s):  
Mariola Tracz ◽  
Małgorzata Bajgier-Kowalska ◽  
Radosław Uliszak
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Current State ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Tourism Resources ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
District Offices ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Podkarpackie Voivodeship is one of the regions of Poland in which the number of agritourism entities is very high. Therefore tourism plays a significant role in its development strategy. The aim of the paper is to identify the current state of agritourism and the changes that have occurred in the region in the years 2000–2016. Specific objectives are to determine the distribution of agritourism farms and their offer, together with a comprehensive analysis of the environmental and socio-economic factors, as well as the impact of the Slovak-Ukrainian border. The report was developed on the statistical materials from the Polish Central Statistical Office, Podkarpackie Agricultural Advisory Centre in Boguchwała and data collected from municipalities and district offices that is published on their websites, as well as through interviews with 100 owners of agritourism farms in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship. The research has shown, on the one hand, the decline in the number of farms in the region and, on the other hand, the increase in the diversity of the tourist offer of these entities. Distribution of agritourism farms is closely linked to the attractiveness of natural environment and quality of secondary tourism resources. Traditional agritourism has not yet fully used its countryside, as well as cross-border advantages of its location.

The United States as the Trade Partner of Poland in te Context of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-213
Author(s):  
Renata Marks-Bielska ◽  
Wiesława Lizińska ◽  
Izabela Serocka
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Trade Partner ◽  
Structure Of Trade

Evaluation of the importance of the USA as the trade partner of Poland is the main objective of the paper, based on the changes in the value of trade during the years 2000-2012 and changes in the structure of trade during the years 2008-2012. The data from the Statistical Yearbooks of Foreign Trade published by the Central Statistical Office was used. The potential for foreign trade growth was illustrated using the simplified analysis based on the gravity model of foreign trade concept. Gradually increasing value of Polish trade with the USA (the average growth rate 9.8%, EU-15 countries 13.1%). Polish exports are characterised by a higher than imports growth rate (USA - exports growth by 12.5%, imports 9.2%, EU-15 - exports 15.1%, imports 11.6%). Trade is strongly dominated by position of one group of products (over 30% share in both exports and imports). The potential of trade is poorly exploited currently. Trade was focused mainly on the countries situated in the close neighbourhood (mainly the EU countries with the domination of Germany).

scholarly journals Public Green Space Policy Implementation: A Case Study of Krakow, Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 538
Author(s):  
Anita Kwartnik-Pruc ◽  
Anna Trembecka
Keyword(s):  
Legal Status ◽  
Green Space ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Space Policy ◽  
The Public ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Public Green Space

Green space is essential for the implementation of the idea of sustainable urban development. This paper contains original research on the implementation of local government tasks in the development of public green space. The aim of this research was to analyse the actions taken by the municipal authorities regarding the development of public green space, including the acquisition of real properties, the regulation of their legal status, as well as the adoption of planning and programme documents. The Polish Central Statistical Office data on the public green space of the largest cities in Poland were analysed in order to determine the dynamics of changes. Then, the focus was placed on Krakow, where the authors analysed in detail the distribution and type of urban green space as well as the actions taken by the Municipality to both extend it and to protect it against building development. The criterion of green space accessibility to city residents was indicated as a necessary aspect to be considered in the overall assessment of the existing greenery. The conclusions include the assessment of the actions of the Krakow authorities and the observed trends in the development of public green space.

Correlated personality change across time and age

2021 ◽  
pp. 089020702110140
Author(s):  
Gabriel Olaru ◽  
Mathias Allemand
Keyword(s):  
Structural Equation ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Personality Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Change Score ◽  
Personality Change ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Adult Lifespan

The goal of this study was to examine differential and correlated change in personality across the adult lifespan. Studying differential and correlated change can help understand whether intraindividual trait change trajectories deviate from the norm and how these trajectories are coupled with each other. We used data from two large longitudinal panel studies from the United States that covered a total age range of 20 to 95 years on the first measurement occasion. We used correlated factor models and bivariate latent change score models to examine the rank-order stability and correlations between change across three measurement waves covering 18 years ( N = 3250) and four measurement waves covering 12 years ( N = 4145). We examined the moderation effects of continuous age on these model parameters using local structural equation modeling. The results suggest that the test–retest correlations decrease with increasing time between measurements but are unaffected by participants’ age. We found that change processes in Extraversion, Openness, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness were strongly related, particularly in late adulthood. Correlated change patterns were highly stable across time intervals and similar to the initial cross-sectional Big Five correlations. We discuss potential mechanisms and implications for personality development research.

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