scholarly journals Climatic changes and their influence on air temperature and precipitation in Ukraine during transitional seasons

2020 ◽  
pp. 60-67
Author(s):  
V. M. Khokhlov ◽  
H. O. Borovska ◽  
M. S. Zamfirova
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Runoff Water ◽  
The West ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Dynamic Methods

      Since modern research indicates climatic changes in all regions of our planet, including on the territory of Ukraine (in particular, the deviation of temperature and other meteorological parameters from the values of the climatic norm), their study is extremely important. After all, they can lead to changes in the nature of precipitation distribution, the length of the growing season, a decrease in the duration of the stable snow cover, local runoff water resources, etc. Most scientific works in recent years describe changes in the distribution of temperature characteristics and precipitation regime, because they are one of the main indicators of the state of the climate system. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify the features of changes in air temperature and precipitation for the entire territory of Ukraine from 2021 to 2050 based on the results of 16 simulations of the ensemble of CORDEX models based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The CORDEX project is a modern simulation of the future climate and has a resolution of ~ 12.5 km in the horizontal plane, which makes it possible to better simulate the characteristics under study. It integrates regional climate predictions that are generated using statistical and dynamic methods. The results obtained are presented for 177 cities of Ukraine, which currently form the basis of a modern monitoring network. It was found that the number of days with precipitation ≥ 5 mm in transitional seasons increases on average by 1-3 days per month, depending on the region. The maximum values of the frequency of occurrence of the number of days with precipitation ≥ 5 mm are observed in the west and gradually decrease in the south. Compared to 1961-1990, the most significant changes occur with the number of frosty days with an air temperature of ≤ 0°С, which noticeably decreases during the study period from north to south. In April and October, for the southern regions of Ukraine, the considered parameter is equal to 0, which means that in these months the air temperature for these regions will have positive values. From the above, there is a tendency towards warming in transitional seasons and a change in the nature of moisture supply to the territory of Ukraine in the next thirty years.

scholarly journals Air temperature and precipitation regime in Ukraine in 2021-2050 by CORDEX model ensemble

2020 ◽  
pp. 17-27
Author(s):  
M. S. Zamfirova ◽  
V. M. Khokhlov
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Southern Ukraine

Global temperatures over the period of 2081–2100 are expected to rise by 0.3–4.8 °C compared to the period of 1986–2005. According to the previous studies, the average annual air temperature in all regions of Ukraine will keep increasing in the near future and the maximum increase in precipitation is expected mainly in the western and northern regions during winter and spring, whereas the decrease in precipitation will be registered in the central, eastern and southern regions during summer and autumn. This article aims to identify the features of changes in air temperature and precipitation for different regions of Ukraine in 2021–2050 based on the modelling results of the ensemble of CORDEX models as per the RCP4.5 scenario. 16 simulation runs for 7 regional climate models were selected for the analysis and the results were presented for five regional centers of Ukraine: Kyiv, Lviv, Kropyvnytskyi, Kharkiv and Odesa. It is shown that future monthly precipitation in all regions tends to increase by an average of 20–40 mm during autumn, winter and spring, whereas the decrease is expected to occur in summer. According to some models, the monthly precipitation will be close to zero in the Southern Ukraine in July and August, which is typical for the Mediterranean climate. Compared to the period of 1961–1990, the average monthly temperature will undergo small changes (up to 1 °C) in spring and autumn, while the temperature in summer and winter will increase by 2.5–3.5 °C. In Odesa, in contrast to the present-day situation, a positive average monthly air temperature will be expected to be recorded throughout the whole year, and only 25% of the runs show negative average monthly minimum temperatures. In the Northern Ukraine, the average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures in winter will increase by 2.0–2.5 °C, and in summer only the maximum air temperature will increase significantly. Thus, we can assume a change in the regime of moisture supply in Ukraine over the next thirty years. One can also assume a high probability of snow cover absence throughout the whole winter in the Southern Ukraine as a result of positive temperatures.

scholarly journals Panama’s Current Climate Replicability in a Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model Nested in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1543
Author(s):  
Reinhardt Pinzón ◽  
Noriko N. Ishizaki ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Current Climate

To simulate the current climate, a 20-year integration of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with grid spacing of 5 and 2 km (NHRCM05 and NHRCM02, respectively) was nested within the AGCM. The three models did a similarly good job of simulating surface air temperature, and the spatial horizontal resolution did not affect these statistics. NHRCM02 did a good job of reproducing seasonal variations in surface air temperature. NHRCM05 overestimated annual mean precipitation in the western part of Panama and eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. NHRCM05 is responsible for this overestimation because it is not seen in MRI-AGCM. NHRCM02 simulated annual mean precipitation better than NHRCM05, probably due to a convection-permitting model without a convection scheme, such as the Kain and Fritsch scheme. Therefore, the finer horizontal resolution of NHRCM02 did a better job of replicating the current climatological mean geographical distributions and seasonal changes of surface air temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals Air Temperature and Precipitation on the Greenland Ice Sheet

1960 ◽  
Vol 3 (27) ◽  
pp. 558-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin Diamond
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
The West ◽  
West Side ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

AbstractMean annual air temperatures and precipitation on the Greenland Ice Sheet, as estimated from snow profile studies and long-term meteorological records at coastal stations, have been used to prepare mean annual air temperature and mean annual precipitation charts for the Greenland Ice Sheet. It is shown that melting of surface snow may occur at elevations of about 1,300 m. in north Greenland and up to 2,700 m. in south Greenland. The warming trend in the Arctic, as indicated by increases in mean annual air temperature, may have occurred to a lesser extent on the ice sheet than at sea-level coastal stations. Annual accumulation of precipitation is two or three times as great at 2,700 m. on the west side of the ice sheet as at the crest. South of lat. 66° N., precipitation may be about twice as great on the east side of the crest as on the west side.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON RUNOFF FROM THE LAKE ONEGO WATERSHED

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
L. E. Nazarova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

As a result of the statistical analysis of the meteorological and water balance data for Onego Lake watershed over the period 1950-2000, noticeable changes were detected. It was found that time series of annual air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration over 50-year period contains positive linear trends, but no change in total streamflow to the lake has so far followed. Potential changes in the regional climate and hydrological regime for the period 2000-2050 were estimated using the results of numerical modeling with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model for two scenarios of the global climate change. The estimation of these data shows that a general tendency to increase of annual air temperature and precipitation will remain in the new climate Mean annual precipitation will increase about 30-50 mm, mean average annual air temperature for the next 50-years period will rise from 1.6 up to 2.7-3.0 °C. Our estimation shows that for both scenarios all water balance parameters, excluding river runoff, will increase.

scholarly journals Biophysical Effects of Temperate Forests in Regulating Regional Temperature and Precipitation Pattern across Northeast China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 4767
Author(s):  
Yue Jiao ◽  
Kun Bu ◽  
Jiuchun Yang ◽  
Guangshuai Li ◽  
Lidu Shen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Forest Ecosystem ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperate Forests ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Water Cycling ◽  
Regional Temperature

The temperate forests in Northeast China are an important ecological barrier. However, the way in which temperate forests regulate the regional temperature and water cycling remains unclear. In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the role that temperate forests play in the regulation of the regional temperature and precipitation by combining remote sensing observations with a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Our results indicated that the forest ecosystem could slightly warm the annual air temperature by 0.04 ± 0.02 °C and bring more rainfall (17.49 ± 3.88 mm) over Northeast China. The temperature and precipitation modification function of forests varies across the seasons. If the trees were not there, our model suggests that the temperature across Northeast China would become much colder in the winter and spring, and much hotter in the summer than the observed climate. Interestingly, the temperature regulation from the forest ecosystem was detected in both forested regions and the adjacent agricultural areas, suggesting that the temperate forests in Northeast China cushion the air temperature by increasing the temperature in the winter and spring, and decreasing the temperature in the summer over the whole region. Our study also highlights the capacity of temperate forests to regulate regional water cycling in Northeast China. With high evapotranspiration, the forests could transfer sufficient moisture to the atmosphere. Combined with the associated moisture convergence, the temperate forests in Northeast China brought more rainfall in both forest and agricultural ecosystems. The increased rainfall was mainly concentrated in the spring and summer; these seasons accounted for 93.82% of the total increase in rainfall. These results imply that temperate forests make outstanding contributions to the maintainance of the sustainable development of agriculture in Northeast China.

scholarly journals Recent and future air temperature and precipitation changes in the mountainous north of Montenegro

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-201
Author(s):  
Miroslav Doderovic ◽  
Dragan Buric ◽  
Vladan Ducic ◽  
Ivan Mijanovic
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Average Height ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Instrumental Period

The aim of the research of this paper is changes in air temperature and precipitation in the north of Montenegro in the instrumental period (1951-2018) and projections up to 2100. Kolasin was chosen because the altitude of the place is the average height of the northern region of Montenegro (about 1000 m), the meteorological station has not changed its location since the beginning of instrumental measurements, and homogeneity was tested (for the instrumental period). In general, the climate of Kolasin (1951-2018) has become warmer and with more frequent extreme daily temperatures and precipitations in an upward trend. When it comes to the projections for the north of this Mediterranean country, according to the A1B scenario of the Regional Climate Model EBU?POM, the results indicate warmer conditions and very warm ones at the end of the 21st century. The projected reduction of the annual number of almost all the considered rainfall days also implies that a slightly more arid future is expected. The climate of the mountainous north of Montenegro is changing, and the results presented in this paper may serve decision makers to take some measures of adaptation (in tourism, agriculture, architecture, water management, etc.) and climate change mitigation.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Change (Karelia, Russia)

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 356
Author(s):  
Larisa Nazarova
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

The overview of climatic conditions in Karelia is based on the data from meteorological observations carried out in 1951-2009 at Roskomgidromet weather stations situated in the study area. Taking the period in question into account, the mean annual air temperature norm has increased by 0.2-0.3°C. The greatest deviation from multiyear averages of mean monthly air temperature is observed in January and March. The investigation of the changes the basic regional climate characteristics is very important in present time because the global climate is changed. The analysis the data about air temperature and precipitation, that were obtained for the different meteorological stations in the investigated region, shows that the regional climate is changed and the main tendencies are directly proportional to the change of the global characteristics.

scholarly journals Relationships between Structure, Composition, and Dynamics of the Pristine Northern Boreal Forest and Air Temperature, Precipitation, and Soil Texture in Quebec (Canada)

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Duchesne ◽  
Rock Ouimet
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Soil Texture ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Stand Age ◽  
Stand Dynamics ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Regimes

This study reports on the contemporary structure, composition, and dynamics of the pristine northern boreal forest in Quebec, Canada, associated with air temperature, precipitation, and soil texture, using 147 permanent sample plots located at the limit of continuous forest in Quebec. The results show that tree species composition of stands is associated with stand age, soil texture, air temperature, and precipitation regime. After establishment of the pioneer cohort, the postsuccessional stand dynamics differed among temperature and precipitation regimes, probably because of their influence on tree growth. Our results support the hypothesis that shifts in forest composition related to stand dynamics and the subsequent senescing phase associated with the old growth stage generally occur sooner and proceed faster on more fertile sites due to quicker growth and the subsequent earlier mortality of pioneer species. This study suggests that climate warming should accelerate the successional dynamics of these ecosystems through its positive influence on tree growth.

scholarly journals Validation of the ALARO-0 model within the EURO-CORDEX framework

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1143-1152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Giot ◽  
Piet Termonia ◽  
Daan Degrauwe ◽  
Rozemien De Troch ◽  
Steven Caluwaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
European Climate ◽  
Jackknife Procedure

Abstract. Using the regional climate model ALARO-0, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium and Ghent University have performed two simulations of the past observed climate within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The ERA-Interim reanalysis was used to drive the model for the period 1979–2010 on the EURO-CORDEX domain with two horizontal resolutions, 0.11 and 0.44°. ALARO-0 is characterised by the new microphysics scheme 3MT, which allows for a better representation of convective precipitation. In Kotlarski et al. (2014) several metrics assessing the performance in representing seasonal mean near-surface air temperature and precipitation are defined and the corresponding scores are calculated for an ensemble of models for different regions and seasons for the period 1989–2008. Of special interest within this ensemble is the ARPEGE model by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), which shares a large amount of core code with ALARO-0. Results show that ALARO-0 is capable of representing the European climate in an acceptable way as most of the ALARO-0 scores lie within the existing ensemble. However, for near-surface air temperature, some large biases, which are often also found in the ARPEGE results, persist. For precipitation, on the other hand, the ALARO-0 model produces some of the best scores within the ensemble and no clear resemblance to ARPEGE is found, which is attributed to the inclusion of 3MT. Additionally, a jackknife procedure is applied to the ALARO-0 results in order to test whether the scores are robust, meaning independent of the period used to calculate them. Periods of 20 years are sampled from the 32-year simulation and used to construct the 95 % confidence interval for each score. For most scores, these intervals are very small compared to the total ensemble spread, implying that model differences in the scores are significant.

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