scholarly journals Modeling of the Potential Effect of Revaccination against Whooping Cough in Children Aged 6–7 and 14 years within the Framework of the National of preventive vaccinations

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
N. I. Briko ◽  
A. Ya. Mindlina ◽  
I. V. Mikheeva ◽  
L. D. Popovich ◽  
A. V. Lomonosova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Whooping Cough ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Living Will ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Vaccine Prophylaxis

Relevance. Currently, the national calendar of preventive vaccinations does not provide for revaccination against whooping cough in children over the age of 18 months. At the same time, the epidemiological and economic feasibility of revaccination against whooping cough in children aged 6–7 years, as well as adolescents, has been demonstrated in world practice. Aim. Based on a mathematical model, develop a forecast of pertussis morbidity dynamics and assess the potential socio-economic damage under the current and expanded vaccine prophylaxis algorithms.Methods. Mathematical modeling of the potential effect of revaccination against whooping cough in children aged 6–7 years (scenario 1) and at 6–7 years and 14 years (scenario 2) was carried out within the framework of the national calendar of preventive vaccinations. A simulation dynamic mathematical model is constructed that allows predicting the development of the epidemiological process of whooping cough on the basis of the dynamics of the main indicators of its prevalence in the population that developed in previous years. The model took into account dynamic changes in the preventive effectiveness of vaccinations and the potential level of underestimation of morbidity. The obtained arrays of indicators served as the basis for extrapolating trends in morbidity and mortality until 2034.The calculation of epidemiological benefits was carried out in the metrics of prevented loss of years of life under the two scenarios under consideration in comparison with the current vaccination algorithm. The calculation of the economic effect was carried out on the basis of the obtained indicators of epidemiological benefits in the metrics of the monetary equivalent of the average cost of a year of life, taking into account the projected inflation coefficients until 2034.Results. The projected decrease in the number of years of life lived in a state of illness, in comparison with the current situation, will total 44.5 thousand years for the period 2019–2034 under scenario 1 and 66.7 thousand years under scenario 2. The socio-economic damage from prevented cases of the disease, expressed in the monetary equivalent of the average cost of living, will decrease by 28.6% (scenario 1) or 42.0% (scenario 2).Conclusions. A comparison of the received public benefits with the costs of vaccination shows that the expansion of the NCPP with additional revaccinations against whooping cough (at 6–7 years or at 6–7 and at 14 years) is advisable both in epidemiological and economic aspects.

Commitment of parents and doctors of Irkutsk city to vaccine prophylaxis of whooping cough

2021 ◽  
pp. 48-51
Author(s):  
A.G. Petrova ◽  
T.A. Bayanova ◽  
A.S. Vanyarkina ◽  
E.A. Novikova ◽  
E.V. Moskaleva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Whooping Cough ◽  
Vaccine Prophylaxis

scholarly journals The application of the TES technology in CHP heating system with Chinese demand profiles——A techno-economic feasibility case study

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 06010
Author(s):  
Ruoyu Zhang ◽  
Haichao Wang ◽  
Xiaozhou Wu ◽  
Xiangli Li ◽  
Lin Duanmu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Combined Heat And Power ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Electricity Pricing ◽  
Peak Shaving ◽  
Optimum Type ◽  
Chp System

The thermal energy storage (TES) technology is an effective method to enhance the planning and the economy of the combined heat and power (CHP) plants, while it has still not been broadly promoted in China. In this paper we firstly establish a mathematical model for a Chinese CHP plant with TES. Then the EnergyPRO software is used to find the optimum type of the TES tank in a three-tariff electricity pricing market and the operation strategy of the CHP plant with the selected TES tank is studied. Thirdly, the economic benefits of the system with/without TES is evaluated. The results show that adding a TES tank with volume of 24000m3 can significantly increase operational profits of the CHP system and reduce the use of peak-shaving heat source.

Mathematical Justification of the New Method of Determination of Wheel Pair’s and Rail’s Damage

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikoloz Mgebrishvili ◽  
Guri Sharashenidze ◽  
Manana Moistsrapishvili ◽  
Sergo Sharashenidze ◽  
Liana Kuparashvili ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mobile Device ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Rolling Stock ◽  
Wheel Pair ◽  
Railway Traffic ◽  
Accuracy Of Measurement ◽  
Mathematical Justification

Development of modern railways largely depends on the control of intactness of the wheel pairs and rails. It is impossible to ensure safety and increase the speed of railway traffic without providing such control. Detection of the wheel pairs’ and rails’ wear and damage is one of the key problems of railway science. Many scientific works are accomplished and lot of devices are elaborated in this field, but the mentioned problem still remains urgent. In order to increase the traffic safety, the group of authors has proposed a constructional scheme of the mobile device for detection of wheel pairs’ and rails’ wear and damage, which will have increased accuracy of measurement. Increasing of accuracy of measurement is carried out on the basis of development of mathematical model, which provides the realization of equal wear of wheel pairs’ as well as ones no equal wear. By installation of the proposed device on each wheel pair of each railcar of the rolling stock, the automatic control of wheel pairs’ and rails’ condition will be achieved. Namely: -Detection of the worn out wheel pair and determination of wear degree; -Detection of the damaged wheel pair; -Identification of the worn out or damaged wheel pair. Besides, on the basis of elaborated mathematical model: -Detection of the worn out rail; -Detection of the damaged rail; -Identification of location of the worn out or damaged rail. The obtained information will be constantly connected to the locomotive computer system. Therefore, for checking rolling stocks, there will no longer be need to build expensive stationary systems, to move trains great distances for their inspection and in the result, the time lost for stoppage will be saved. So, with the help of proposed mobile device, the traffic safety increases and at the same time expenses for detection of wheel pairs’ wear and damage decrease, which results in significant economic effect.

The Economic Impact of Hand Injuries

1993 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. O’SULLIVAN ◽  
J. COLVILLE
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Hand Injuries ◽  
Working Population ◽  
Hand Rehabilitation ◽  
Work Injuries ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
Manual Skills ◽  
Serious Injuries

The socio-economic effect of 156 hand injuries was studied prospectively. The average cost per injury was IR£474. 28 of the more serious injuries utilized two-thirds of the resources and resulted in 83% of the days lost from work. In the working population approximately 50% of hand injuries occurred at work. In assessing the economic impact of hand injuries, labour costs account for 55 to 65% of costs. Amputation and complicated laceration were the most costly and resulted in more days lost at work. Injuries at work result in greater costs because they involve more serious injuries, and because workers requiring manual skills need a higher level of hand rehabilitation to return to work. Unless the labour costs are taken into account, the true impact of hand injuries is greatly underestimated.

scholarly journals Potential effect of antiseptic mouthwash on the incidence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e052823
Author(s):  
Xianglong Xu ◽  
Eric P F Chow ◽  
Mingwang Shen ◽  
Zhuoru Zou ◽  
Chongjian Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Neisseria Gonorrhoeae ◽  
Health Centre ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Anatomical Site ◽  
Total Incidence ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Sex With Men

ObjectivesThe incidence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and its antimicrobial resistance is increasing in many countries. Antibacterial mouthwash may reduce gonorrhoea transmission without using antibiotics. We modelled the effect that antiseptic mouthwash may have on the incidence of gonorrhoea.DesignWe developed a mathematical model of the transmission of gonorrhoea between each anatomical site (oropharynx, urethra and anorectum) in men who have sex with men (MSM). We constructed four scenarios: (1) mouthwash had no effect; (2) mouthwash increased the susceptibility of the oropharynx; (3) mouthwash reduced the transmissibility from the oropharynx; (4) the combined effect of mouthwash from scenarios 2 and 3.SettingWe used data at three anatomical sites from 4873 MSM attending Melbourne Sexual Health Centre in 2018 and 2019 to calibrate our models and data from the USA, Netherlands and Thailand for sensitivity analyses.ParticipantsPublished available data on MSM with multisite infections of gonorrhoea.Primary and secondary outcome measuresIncidence of gonorrhoea.ResultsThe overall incidence of gonorrhoea was 44 (95% CI 37 to 50)/100 person-years (PY) in scenario 1. Under scenario 2 (20%–80% mouthwash coverage), the total incidence increased (47–60/100 PY) and at all three anatomical sites by between 7.4% (5.9%–60.8%) and 136.6% (108.1%–177.5%). Under scenario 3, with the same coverage, the total incidence decreased (20–39/100 PY) and at all anatomical sites by between 11.6% (10.2%–13.5%) and 99.8% (99.2%–100%). Under scenario 4, changes in the incidence depended on the efficacy of mouthwash on the susceptibility or transmissibility. The effect on the total incidence varied (22–55/100 PY), and at all anatomical sites, there were increases of nearly 130% and large declines of almost 100%.ConclusionsThe effect of mouthwash on gonorrhoea incidence is largely predictable depending on whether it increases susceptibility to or reduces the transmissibility of gonorrhoea.

scholarly journals Influence of working conditions on the economy of an agricultural enterprise

2020 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 13012
Author(s):  
Yuri Shirokov ◽  
Valery Tikhnenko
Keyword(s):  
Working Conditions ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Agricultural Enterprises ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Agricultural Enterprise ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Industrial Injuries

The article deals with the problems of increasing the economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises by improving working conditions, reducing the level of exposure to harmful and dangerous production factors. The purpose of the article is to analyze methodological approaches to forecasting possible economic losses of agricultural enterprises due to the presence of harmful or dangerous working conditions and to develop organizational and management solutions to reduce these losses. Economic services of agricultural enterprises need to have a methodology for assessing real economic losses due to unfavorable working conditions at enterprises, which will give employers an understanding that the costs of labor protection and safety not only pay off, but also give a significant economic effect and contribute to improving the profitability of production and allow them to make informed management decisions. It is shown that forecasting economic damage from occupational diseases and industrial injuries, accidents is a complex task, but it is quite solvable on the basis of the procedure for assessing and managing occupational risks and applying known patterns of crop losses or animal productivity due to violations of agrotechnical deadlines or animal maintenance regime due to the absence of an injured employee at the workplace.

scholarly journals Plasma Technologies as the Basis for the Development of Russian Waste Processing

2021 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. 01049
Author(s):  
Sergey Filin ◽  
Vladimir Velikorossov ◽  
Lyubov Chaikovskaya ◽  
Elmira Zhussipova ◽  
Alexey Yakushev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Waste Disposal ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Solid Waste Disposal ◽  
Main Thing ◽  
Under Construction ◽  
Plasma Technologies

The article considers the current topic - justification of the possibility of organizing a system for recycling solid domestic and other waste based on plasma technologies and the subsequent use of secondary raw materials based on them. The current state of production sector of collection and disposal of solid domestic and other waste abroad and in Russia was analyzed. There are proposed a scheme of organization of solid domestic and other waste disposal system based on plasma technologies, operable at the under construction enterprise for processing of these wastes. The economic feasibility of this enterprise is justified. It was concluded that although the use of plasma technologies is most beneficial in the energy sector, when introducing plasma plants and creating solid waste disposal plants using these plants, taking into account the financial benefits in obtaining the raw materials and energy generated by them is not the main task, but an additional economic effect. The main thing is to reduce the negative impact of solid municipal waste on the environment and people.

scholarly journals Influenza and ARVI: challenges and solutions

2019 ◽  
pp. 68-75
Author(s):  
Article Editorial
Keyword(s):  
Medical Care ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Acute Respiratory Infections ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Significant Incidence ◽  
Leading Position ◽  
Vaccine Prophylaxis ◽  
High Level ◽  
Head Of Department

ARVI and influenza are one of the topical problems of pediatrics, which is due to the high level of morbidity in the child population, a significant incidence of severe and complicated forms of disease, especially in young children. In the structure of infectious pathology in children, this group of diseases still retains its leading position, accounting for up to 70% of all registered cases. Almost every child annually and more than once endures ARVI or flu episodes. This group of infections causes significant economic damage both to the household budget and the national budget as a whole. In order to improve the provision of medical care for children, improve the qualifications of pediatricians and share experience of the Department of Pediatrics named after Academician G.N. Speranskiy RMACPE (Head of Department Dr. of Sci. (Med), Professor I.N. Zakharova), a scientific and practical seminar «Influenza and acute respiratory infections 2018/2019: challenges and solutions» was held. Within the framework of the event, supported by «Valenta Pharm», specialists considered a number of topical issues, including vaccine prophylaxis and treatment of ARVI and influenza, taking into account modern epidemiological, microbiological and virological data. The seminar participants paid special attention to the validity of antiviral therapy in children, in particular, such drug as Ingavirin®.

scholarly journals Artificial Intelligence Tax: Prospects of Introduction in the Russian Federation

Financial law ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 20-22
Author(s):  
Olga I. Lyutova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Public Law ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Russian Federation

The presented article analyzes the legality of the potential introduction of a tax on artificial intelligence in the Russian Federation from the point of view of its economic feasibility, which will not only achieve the proper economic effect from the introduction of the new tax, but also smooth out the social resonance. The author explores various approaches to the interpretation of the concept of the principle of economic feasibility of a tax, projecting its content on the fact of the appearance of a tax on artificial intelligence. The study concludes that there is insufficient justification for the introduction of a tax on artificial intelligence by the need for public law education to financially provide training in new professions for people who have lost their jobs as a result of the use of artificial intelligence by their employer. An analysis is made of the place of the tax on artificial intelligence in the system of taxes and fees of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Synthesis of Sustainable Circular Economy in Palm Oil Industry Using Graph-Theoretic Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 8081 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Yi Juang Yeo ◽  
Bing Shen How ◽  
Sin Yong Teng ◽  
Wei Dong Leong ◽  
Wendy Pei Qin Ng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Economy Model ◽  
Graph Theoretic ◽  
Oil Palm Biomass ◽  
Industry Sectors

Huge generation of oil palm biomass has stimulated the development of biorefineries for synthesis of bioproducts. By targeting the palm oil industry and the biorefineries as the consumers of these products, a sustainable circular economy can be created by recycling the biomass wastes to the said consumers. To evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of the sustainable circular economy, a mathematical model demonstrating the biomass network with consideration of recycling is developed in this work. Besides, Process Graph (P-graph) is incorporated to perform the combinatorial optimization of the biomass network, which targets three common resources: fertilizer, steam, and electricity for regeneration and recycling. Although the result shows that the linear economy model is preferred in terms of profitability, the circular economy model shows potential in reducing 39.292% of the imported steam and 13.469% of the imported electricity, while being 0.642% lower in terms of the gross profit. Three scenarios are then proposed to identify the potential bottleneck that can hinder the implementation of the sustainable circular economy approach, with the aid of sensitivity analysis. This work is expected to benefit the biomass-based industry sectors and the policymakers on future development and transition to the sustainable circular economy.

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