Method for assessing the results of hierarchical socio-economic systems’ functioning based on the aggregated production function

Author(s):  
Roman Zhukov

  The article presents a method that develops a methodology for assessing the functioning of hierarchical socio-economic systems. The methodology includes formalized description of the object of research and the construction of partial and integral performance indicators. Performance indicators are calculated using production functions. The method is based on an algorithm for constructing an aggregated production function, which is used to calculate the normative (expected) value of the result of the functioning of the object of research. Using the example of the regions in Central Federal District and data for 2007–2016 testing and comparative analysis of four algorithms for estimating the parameters of the aggregate production function in the construction of the integral indicator are carried out. The gross regional product for the NACE sections (C, D and E) was chosen as effective indicators. The scientific novelty of the study is as follows. Three algorithms for constructing the distribution density of an aggregated random variable, which is a combination of residuals from econometric equations that describe the particular results of the functioning of elements of a hierarchical socio-economic system, are proposed and tested. The distribution density is used to find the parameters of the aggregated production function. For the two-dimensional case, analytical expression of the corresponding probability distribution density is obtained. The conclusion about the possibility of using the method to evaluate the results of the functioning of hierarchical socio-economic systems is substantiated.    

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-109
Author(s):  
R. A. Zhukov ◽  

Balance is one of the properties of the system, and the problems associated with the assessment of balance, the choice of indicators, methods and tools that allow you to make informed management decisions in this area in the future are still open. The aim of the study is to develop and test a methodology for assessing the balance of the functioning of hierarchical socio-economic systems on the basis of the case of the regions of the Central Federal District of Russia. The hypothesis is that the proposed methodology can be effectively applied to study the balance of complex systems along with existing methods in the framework of a new theory of economic systems. The method consists in the formation of special indicators – the coefficient of harmony and the adjusted index of system balance, which allow us to assess the degree of balance of subsystems within the accepted space-time classification. The first of them takes into account the spread of generalized (integral) performance indicators that characterize the object, environment, process and project subsystems. The second one is the intensity of the relationships between them. The integral indicator is calculated by means of a special procedure for convolution of partial results (actual and normative). The norm is determined by a model of the relationship between performance and significant factor characteristics. The peculiarity of the proposed method is the possibility of its use at different levels of management. It also provides a reasonable comparison of the results of the functioning of various subsystems and elements by eliminating the influence of units of measurement and the scale effect; the mutual influence of the considered elements and subsystems is taken into account; the specific conditions of their operation are taken into account. The case of the regions of the Central Federal District is used to carry out a comparative analysis of the results of assessing the balance of subsystems using the volume of gross domestic product by region by type of economic activity for 2007-2018,. The conclusion is made about the possibility of using, along with the index of system balance, the coefficient of harmony. The practical results of the study can be used by government authorities to make decisions and develop measures aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of the regions of the Central Federal District.


Author(s):  
Roman Zhukov

The aim of the article is to substantiate the possibility of using the performance indicator designed according to the author’s methodology along with other indicators characterizing functioning of socio-economic systems. The performance indicator is defined as the ratio of normalized and standardized actual results to expected values which are calculated by the model of the relationship of effective signs and state and impact factors. The model is a production function, whose parameters can be defined by factor analysis of dependencies. To substantiate the presented indicator the author carries out a comparative analysis of its statistical dependence with the indicators of technical efficiency calculated using the stochastic boundary method. The paper considers 12 different variants which differ in the type of distributing the random component, which characterizes the inefficiency of the system; methods of calculating technical efficiency, as well as the presentation of data (pooled and panel data). As a basic model, the power multiplicative model in the form of Cobb-Douglas is used, which includes the volume of gross regional product, the cost of fixed assets, the average annual number of employees in economy and the cost of technological innovation taking into account inflation. The information base of the research is data on regions of the Central Federal district for 2007–2016. For the considered variants the relationships between the proposed performance indicator and other indicators considered were statistically significant, which gives reason to use it as a private indicator for analyzing functioning of socio-economic systems. The performance indicator can be used as a tool to analyze and compare functioning of socio-economic systems operating in different conditions.


Author(s):  
Julia Rishatovna Kuzhanbaeva ◽  
Rustam Taufihovich Kuzhanbaev ◽  
Maria S. Guseva

In order to prevent negative socio-economic trends, to predict the social consequences of decisions on the implementation of state policy in the development of single-industry territories, public authorities monitor the socio-economic situation in single-industry towns based on an assessment of a number of statistical indicators. Such a differentiated assessment of statistical parameters does not allow a comprehensive assessment of the level of development and competitiveness of a single-industry town by territory, which is of particular relevance in modern conditions of glocalization. Of particular scientific and practical interest is a comparative analysis of the level of development of single-industry towns on the basis of an integral indicator that takes into account aspects of various spheres of life of the population and allows an objective assessment of the competitive positions of single-industry territories, which is currently not used by state authorities for monitoring. The purpose of the work is to assess and justify the conditions and development trends of single-industry towns of the Samara region on the basis of calculating the integral indicator of competitiveness, taking into account the level of development of the economy, finance, employment, social security and demography, as well as the mono-profile level of territories. In this study, we used the methods of system analysis, the method of comparisons and analogies, the method of generalization, the methods of dialectic and statistical analysis, the method of expert estimates, the method of retrospective estimates and structural-dynamic analysis. The paper provides an overview of the single-industry towns of the regions of the Volga Federal District; the results of testing the methodology for assessing the competitiveness of single-industry towns of the Samara region on the basis of an integral indicator are presented and trends in its change in the period 2013–2017 are identified. The study involved four single-industry towns of the Samara region: Oktyabrsk, Pohvistnevo, Tolyatti, Chapaevsk. The calculations showed that For five years Oktyabrsk was an outsider in four of the six areas under study (economics, labor, social services, demography), which led to the lowest competitiveness index and allowed us to identify the competitiveness of a single-industry town as “below average”. In relatively equal socio-economic conditions, there were Pohvistnevo, Togliatti and Chapaevsk, the level of competitiveness of which is “above average”.


1991 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 1278-1287 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Newman

The analysis in this paper measures changes in forest productivity for 12 southern states using a modified, aggregate production function. The function combines cross section – time series, biological, and acreage data to estimate the shift in productivity, measured as either standing inventory plus removals or changes in inventory plus removals, over the past 4 decades. The annual shift in productivity is estimated to be approximately 0.5% for the standing volume measures used. However, productivity gains in the region have virtually stopped during the past decade. The largest contributions to productivity gains were from industrially owned lands and land managed as planted pine. Mixed pine–hardwood stands and public lands (except for plantations) showed lower productivity impacts. These results present an essential component for understanding the impact of technical change on aggregate forest productivity in the southern United States.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiří Mihola

The monograph develops the theory of production functions and their systematic typology. It looks at the relationship between inputs and outputs as a universal relationship that is used not only in economics but also in other disciplines. In addition to the static production function, special attention is paid to the dynamization of individual quantities and the issue of expressing the effect of changes in these quantities on the change in production. It is explained why in the aggregate production function expressed through aggregate factor input and aggregate factor productivity it is necessary to use a multiplicative relationship, why the multiplicative link is also suitable in terms of total input factor and why the share of weights in labor and capital should be the same. The use of the production function is demonstrated on the development of the economies of the USA, China and India and on the ten largest economies of the world in terms of absolute GDP, on cryptocurrencies and on the so-called farming role.In addition to a comprehensive overview of production functions, the monograph also enriches new ideas that arose during long-term computational and analytical activities of economic and business. Particularly innovative is the generalization of the production function to any system with variable inputs and outputs. The production function can thus be recognized in many identities. The original intention of the research was to examine the intensity of economic development, but it turned out that it is closely related to production functions. The impetus for this research comes from Prof. Ing. František Brabec, DrSc. a genius mathematician, designer, economist and manager, former general director of Škoda in Pilsen and later rector of ČVÚT.The presented typology of production functions is not limited to one area of economics, but goes beyond it. The monograph respects the definition of the static production function as the maximum amount of production that can be produced with a given number of production factors. On this function, which can be effectively displayed using polynomial functions of different orders,significant points can be systematically defined, ie the inflection point, the point of maximum efficiency, the point of maximum profit and the point of maximum production. The purpose is to optimize the number of inserted production factors. The text is preferred the point with the greatest effectiveness. If this quantity does not correspond, for example, to demand, it is possible to choose another technology, which will be reflected in a shift in the static production function. At the same time, the important points of these functions describe the trajectory, which has the nature of a dynamic production function. For a dynamic production function, the crucial question is how the change in individual factors contributes to the overall change in output. If the production function is expressed through inputs and their efficiency, dynamic parameters of extensibility and intensity can be defined, which exactly express the effect of changes in inputs and the effect of changes in efficiency on changes in outputs for all possible situations. Special attention is paid to the aggregate production function. It explains why it should be expressed as the product of the aggregate input factor (TIF) and aggregate factor productivity (TFP), or why the term TIF should be expressed as a weighted product of labor and capital, in which the value of labor and capital weights could be and identical. The monograph here surpasses the traditional additive view of the multi-factor production function by proposing a multiplicative link, which also allows the derivation of growth accounting, but with a new interpretation of weights and (1-), which do not need to be calculated for each subject and each year.The time production function is used to forecast the GDP development of the US, China and India economies until 2030 and 2050, respectively. It is also predicted an increase in the absolute GDP of Indonesia, a stable position of Russia and the loss of the elite position of Japan and Germany.The monograph also deals with the hitherto unresolved question of whether, even in economics, it is also necessary in certain circumstances to take into account a phenomenon called quantization in physics. It turns out that quantization is a common thing in economics, which is documented on specific forms of production functions that respect quantization in economics.The monograph also deals with the relationship between the efficiency of an individual given the use of a certain point on a specific static production function and common efficiency, ie all actors together. These examples assume limited resources. The sum of the outputs of all actors depends on how the actors share these limited resources. It can be expected that there will be at least one method of distribution that will bring the highest sum of outputs (products, crops) of all actors. This result, however, also depends on the shape of the production functions. This is investigated using EDM, i.e.elementary distribution models. EDM for polynomial production functions of the 2nd to 5th order are not yet published in summary. Of the new findings, they are the most interesting. When using two polynomial production functions, the EDM boundary becomes linear if the inflection point is used for both production functions. If we are above the inflection point, the EDM is properly concave. It turned out that the "bending" of the production function in the region of the inflection point can be modeled using a quantity of the order of the respective polynomial. The higher the order of the polynomial, the higher the deflection can be achieved. This proved to be a very important finding in modeling specific production functions. This effect cannot be achieved by combining other parameters.


2019 ◽  
Vol 96 (11) ◽  
pp. 1054-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia A. Lebedeva-Nesevrya ◽  
V. G. Kostarev ◽  
N. V. Nikiforova ◽  
M. Yu. Tsinker

The article presents data on morbidity with temporary loss of work capacity (MTLWC) among working population in the whole of the Russian Federation and federal districts throughout the period from 2005 to 2014. According to official statistics, common number of losses of working days is shown to decline with a rate of about 1.1-1.3% per year mainly due to a reduction in the number of cases of diseases. The Urals and Privolzhsky Federal Districts are characterized by highest rates both of the incidence rate and the number of days of MTLWC. For the example, the Perm Krai (Privolzhsky Federal District) as a region with a typical MTLWC structure was shown to represent greatest losses of working days in the age groups of 25-29 and 50-54 years of workers of both genders. The consistent high incidence rate of injuries, poisoning and other effects of external influences in working men under the age of 24 years is of particular concern. The situation testifies the need to create targeted programs to prevent diseases in young workers, who in subsequent years will form the bulk of the country’s productive forces. At the regional level MTLWC is established to account for an annual loss of about 1.3-1.5% of the gross regional product. The adoption of effective managerial decisions to reduce MTLWC is shown to allow solve not only medical and demographic, but also economic problems in certain regions and the country as a whole.


Kavkaz-forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 113-123
Author(s):  
М.Р. КУЛОВА ◽  
Е.Ю. ИВАНОВА ◽  
Т.Ю. ИТАРОВА

В статье рассматриваются особенности взаимосвязи, инертность и изменчивость динамики доходов населения и показателей валового регионального продукта в субъектах Северо-Кавказского федерального округа. В условиях стагнации российской экономики в последние годы проблема роста валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в депрессивных регионах Северного Кавказа приобретает особую значимость. Проведенный авторами корреляционный анализ доходов населения и валового регионального продукта за 2000-2018 гг. методом Пирсона выявил, что, в отличие от российских регионов в целом с их достаточно сильной связью между валовым региональным продуктом и доходами населения, в регионах Северного Кавказа наблюдалось очень значительное расхождение в коэффициентах корреляции. В частности, в Северной Осетии в течение 2011-2015 гг. экономический рост и доходы населения находились в состоянии слабой зависимости, а уже в 2015-2018 гг. эта связка стала почти идеальной, когда коэффициент корреляции достиг 0,99. Резкие скачки в тесноте связей ВРП и доходов населения имели место в Дагестане, Карачаево-Черкессии, в то время как относительно стабильная динамика коэффициентов корреляции ВРП с доходами была характерна для Ингушетии. В Кабардино-Балкарии и Ставропольском крае, где были отмечены низкие и отрицательные значения коэффициентов корреляции, в динамике доходов населения и экономическим ростом проявилась либо слабая связь, либо обратная связь, когда увеличение одной переменной приводит к уменьшению другой. В целом, разнонаправленность динамики показателей валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в регионах СКФО отражает неэффективность экономической политики и необходимость более дифференцированного подхода к отдельным территориям макрорегиона. The article discusses the features of the relationship, inertia and variability of the dynamics of household income and gross regional product indicators in the subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District. In the context of the stagnation of the Russian economy in recent years, the problem of the growth of GRP and income of the population in the depressed regions of the North Caucasus is of particular importance. The authors' correlation analysis of the population's income and the gross regional product for 2000-2018 according to Pearson method revealed that, in contrast to the Russian regions as a whole with their rather strong relationship between the gross regional product and the population's income, there was a very significant discrepancy in the correlation coefficients in the regions of the North Caucasus. In particular, in North Ossetia, during 2011-2015, economic growth and income of the population were in a state of weakened mutual dependence, and already in 2015-2018, this link became almost perfect, when the correlation coefficient reached 0.99. Sharp changes in the close relationship between GRP and income of the population occurred in Dagestan, Karachay-Cherkessia, while the relatively stable dynamics of the correlation coefficients of GRP with income was characteristic of Ingushetia. In Kabardino-Balkaria and Stavropol Krai, where low and negative values of correlation coefficients were noted, the dynamics of household income and economic growth showed either a weak relationship or an inverse relationship, when an increase in one variable leads to a decrease in the other. In general, the divergence of the dynamics of the gross regional product and income indicators in the regions of the NCFD reflects the inefficiency of economic policy and the need for a more differentiated approach to individual territories of the macroregion.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-129
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova ◽  
Elena Yu. Sokolova

World economy shows a high level of uncertainty. There are considerable risks of economic slowdown and stock market collapse. For many years, the Russian economy has been dependent on external factors. Recently, when anti-Russian sanctions are imposed, it is particularly important to find internal sources of growth, including domestic demand as the most significant factor. However, environment for the development of the Russian economy remains unfavourable due to high interest rates, volatile exchange rate, increasing tax rates, and ambiguous economic policy. Based on the analysis of regional statistics (including some regions of the Central Federal District), we confirmed the weak relationship between investments and gross regional product (GRP) revealed by other scientists. This may be the result of poor investment efficiency and its low multiplier effect. In this situation, the right choice of sectors with high multipliers and investment efficiency creates the potential for increasing domestic demand. Simultaneously, mechanisms for the expansion of resources ensuring regional economic growth play an important role. In this regard, we developed approaches aimed at the creation of conditions for the expansion of regional financial resources to support economic activity, domestic demand and economy in general, considering a social aspect of these processes. Some of the proposed mechanisms stimulate the participation of banks in financing economic processes, federal or regional bond issuance (the Bank of Russia would be the main buyer), etc. These proposals consider the experience of other countries in stimulating economic growth, including at the regional level. Financial regulators and relevant regional agencies can use the research results for developing economic policies.


2017 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1740005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Tao ◽  
Xiangjun Wu

The competitive economy, over a long time scale, would produce a large number of general equilibria, each of which can be regarded as a possible microstate of this economy. Then by the principle of maximum entropy, we can obtain the most probable macrostate which in the case of perfect competition involving a single industry will lead to a Solow-type aggregate production function. By this aggregate production function, one can make clear how labors match firms on the balanced growth path. Here, we prove that when the capital stock of a society arrives at the golden-rule level on the balanced growth path, the social employment will reach the best level at which every firm on average employs an optimal amount of workers.


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