Tropical glaciers, recorders and indicators of climate change, are disappearing globally

AbstractIn this paper we review the interaction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and warming trends recorded in ice-core records from high-altitude tropical glaciers, discuss the implications of the warming trends for the glaciers and consider the societal implications of glacier retreat. ENSO has strong impacts on meteorological phenomena that directly or indirectly affect most regions on the planet and their populations. Many tropical ice fields have provided continuous annually resolved proxy records of climatic and environmental variability preserved in measurable parameters, especially oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios (δ18O, δD) and the net mass balance (accumulation). These records present an opportunity to examine the nature of tropical climate variability in greater detail and to extract new information on linkages between rising temperatures on tropical glaciers and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures in critical ENSO indicator regions. The long-term climate records from a collection of high-altitude tropical ice cores provide the longer-term context essential for assessing the significance of the magnitude and rate of current climate changes that are in large measure driving glacier retreat. The well-documented ice loss on Quelccaya in the Peruvian Andes, Naimona’nyi in the Himalaya, Kilimanjaro in eastern Africa and the ice fields near Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia, presents a grim future for low-latitude glaciers. The ongoing melting of these ice fields (response) is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics (driver) and has serious implications for the people who live in these areas.

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Disappearance of the last tropical glaciers in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (Papua, Indonesia) appears imminent

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1822037116 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 116 (52) ◽

pp. 26382-26388 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Donaldi S. Permana ◽

Lonnie G. Thompson ◽

Ellen Mosley-Thompson ◽

Mary E. Davis ◽

Ping-Nan Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Ice Core ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Warm Pool ◽

Tropical Glaciers ◽

Pacific Warm Pool

The glaciers near Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia, the highest peak between the Himalayas and the Andes, are the last remaining tropical glaciers in the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Here, we report the recent, rapid retreat of the glaciers near Puncak Jaya by quantifying the loss of ice coverage and reduction of ice thickness over the last 8 y. Photographs and measurements of a 30-m accumulation stake anchored to bedrock on the summit of one of these glaciers document a rapid pace in the loss of ice cover and a ∼5.4-fold increase in the thinning rate, which was augmented by the strong 2015–2016 El Niño. At the current rate of ice loss, these glaciers will likely disappear within the next decade. To further understand the mechanisms driving the observed retreat of these glaciers, 2 ∼32-m-long ice cores to bedrock recovered in mid-2010 are used to reconstruct the tropical Pacific climate variability over approximately the past half-century on a quasi-interannual timescale. The ice core oxygen isotopic ratios show a significant positive linear trend since 1964 CE (0.018 ± 0.008‰ per year;P< 0.03) and also suggest that the glaciers’ retreat is augmented by El Niño–Southern Oscillation processes, such as convection and warming of the atmosphere and sea surface. These Papua glaciers provide the only tropical records of ice core-derived climate variability for the WPWP.

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Fast shrinkage of tropical glaciers in Colombia

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756406781812429 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 43 ◽

pp. 194-201 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Jorge Luis Ceballos ◽

Christian Euscátegui ◽

Jair Ramírez ◽

Marcela Cañon ◽

Christian Huggel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Altitude ◽

Sierra Nevada ◽

Temperature Rise ◽

Global Climate ◽

Glacier Retreat ◽

Ice Age ◽

Aerial Photographs ◽

Glacier Area ◽

Tropical Glaciers

AbstractAs a consequence of ongoing atmospheric temperature rise, tropical glaciers belong to the unique and threatened ecosystems on Earth, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Houghton and others, 2001). Worldwide glacier monitoring, especially as part of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), includes the systematic collection of data on such perennial surface ice masses. Several peaks in the sierras of Colombia have lost their glacier cover during recent decades. Today, high-altitude glaciers still exist in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, in Sierra Nevada del Cocuy and on the volcanoes of Nevados del Ruiz, de Santa Isabel, del Tolima and del Huila. Comparison of reconstructions of maximum glacier area extent during the Little Ice Age with more recent information from aerial photographs and satellite images clearly documents a fast-shrinking tendency and potential disappearance of the remaining glaciers within the next few decades. In the past 50 years, Colombian glaciers have lost 5 0% or more of their area. Glacier shrinkage has continued to be strong in the last 15 years, with a loss of 10−50% of the glacier area. The relationship between fast glacier retreat and local, regional and global climate change is now being investigated. Preliminary analyses indicate that the temperature rise of roughly 1°C in the last 30 years recorded at high-altitude meteorological stations exerts a primary control on glacier retreat. The investigations on the Colombian glaciers thus corroborate earlier findings concerning the high sensitivity of glaciers in the wet inner tropics to temperature rise. To improve understanding of fast glacier retreat in Colombia, a modern monitoring network has been established according to the multilevel strategy of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) within GCOS. The observations are also contributions to continued assessments of hazards from the glacier-covered volcanoes and to integrated global change research in mountain biosphere reserves.

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Spatio-temporal associations of albacore CPUEs in the Northeastern Pacific with regional SST and climate environmental variables

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fst238 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 71 (7) ◽

pp. 1717-1727 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

A. Jason Phillips ◽

Lorenzo Ciannelli ◽

Richard D. Brodeur ◽

William G. Pearcy ◽

John Childers

Keyword(s):

North Pacific ◽

Large Scale ◽

Environmental Variability ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Spatial Dynamics ◽

Catch Per Unit Effort ◽

Variable Effect ◽

Positive Effects ◽

The North ◽

Additive Mixed Models

Abstract This study investigated the spatial distribution of juvenile North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) in relation to local environmental variability [i.e. sea surface temperature (SST)], and two large-scale indices of climate variability, [the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI)]. Changes in local and climate variables were correlated with 48 years of albacore troll catch per unit effort (CPUE) in 1° latitude/longitude cells, using threshold Generalized Additive Mixed Models (tGAMMs). Model terms were included to account for non-stationary and spatially variable effects of the intervening covariates on albacore CPUE. Results indicate that SST had a positive and spatially variable effect on albacore CPUE, with increasingly positive effects to the North, while PDO had an overall negative effect. Although albacore CPUE increased with SST both before and after a threshold year of 1986, such effect geographically shifted north after 1986. This is the first study to demonstrate the non-stationary spatial dynamics of albacore tuna, linked with a major shift of the North Pacific. Results imply that if ocean temperatures continue to increase, US west coast fisher communities reliant on commercial albacore fisheries are likely to be negatively affected in the southern areas but positively affected in the northern areas, where current albacore landings are highest.

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Environmental variability and the transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha, People's Republic of China

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268812002555 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 141 (9) ◽

pp. 1867-1875 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

H. XIAO ◽

L. D. GAO ◽

X. J. LI ◽

X. L. LIN ◽

X. Y. DAI ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Surveillance ◽

Environmental Variability ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Host Population ◽

Haemorrhagic Fever ◽

Rodent Host ◽

Transmission Potential ◽

Republic Of China ◽

Disease Occurrence ◽

Disease Epidemics

SUMMARYThe transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic, reservoir and environmental variables. The epidemiology of the disease was studied over a 6-year period in Changsha. Variables relating to climate, environment, rodent host distribution and disease occurrence were collected monthly and analysed using a time-series adjusted Poisson regression model. It was found that the density of the rodent host and multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation index had the greatest effect on the transmission of HFRS with lags of 2–6 months. However, a number of climatic and environmental factors played important roles in affecting the density and transmission potential of the rodent host population. It was concluded that the measurement of a number of these variables could be used in disease surveillance to give useful advance warning of potential disease epidemics.

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Malaria patterns across altitudinal zones of Mount Elgon following intensified control and prevention programs in Uganda

10.21203/rs.2.23944/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Siya Aggrey ◽

Egeru Anthony ◽

Kalule Bosco John ◽

Lukwa Tafadzwa Akim ◽

Ssentongo Benard

Keyword(s):

High Altitude ◽

Arima Model ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Health Concern ◽

Series Data ◽

Trend Test ◽

Local Health ◽

Control And Prevention ◽

Mount Elgon

Abstract Background Malaria remains a major tropical vector-borne disease of immense public health concern owing to its debilitating effects in sub-Saharan Africa. In the recent past, the high altitude areas in Eastern Africa have been reported to experience dramatic cases of malaria. However, its patterns following intensified control and prevention interventions remains and the changing climate remains widely unexplored in these regions. This study thus analyzed malaria patterns across altitudinal zones of Mount Elgon, Uganda. Methods Times-series data on malaria cases (2011 - 2017) from five level III local health centers occurring across three altitudinal zones; low, mid and high altitude was utilized. Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation regression and Mann Kendall trend test were used to analyze malaria patterns. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to project malaria patterns for a seven year period. Results On average, 66±69/1000 individuals suffered from malaria on a monthly basis. This was most pronounced in the months of May-August 89±88/1000 compared to the months of November-February (40±33/1000). Malaria patterns varied with season and altitude and declined over time across the three altitudinal zones. Observed cases, revealed an annual average of 587±750/1000; 345±321/1000 and 338±351/1000 cases in lower, mid and high altitudes respectively. Conclusions Despite observed decline in malaria cases across the three altitudinal zones, the high altitude zone became a malaria hotspot as cases variably occurred in the zone. The projections of malaria revealed declining patterns of malaria cases in all the altitudinal zones. Malaria control interventions thus ought to be strengthened and strategically designed to achieve no malaria cases across all the altitudinal zones. Integration of climate information within malaria interventions can also strengthen eradication strategies of malaria in such differentiated altitudinal zones.

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Climate variability in West Antarctica derived from annual accumulation-rate records from ITASE firn/ice cores

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756404781814447 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 39 ◽

pp. 585-594 ◽

Cited By ~ 69

Author(s):

Susan Kaspari ◽

Paul A. Mayewski ◽

Daniel A. Dixon ◽

Vandy Blue Spikes ◽

Sharon B. Sneed ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Accumulation Rate ◽

Drainage System ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Cyclonic Activity ◽

West Antarctica ◽

Sea Level Pressure

AbstractThirteen annually resolved accumulation-rate records covering the last ~200 years from the Pine Island–Thwaites and Ross drainage systems and the South Pole are used to examine climate variability over West Antarctica. Accumulation is controlled spatially by the topography of the ice sheet, and temporally by changes in moisture transport and cyclonic activity. A comparison of mean accumulation since 1970 at each site to the long-term mean indicates an increase in accumulation for sites located in the western sector of the Pine Island–Thwaites drainage system. Accumulation is negatively associated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for sites near the ice divide, and periods of sustained negative SOI (1940–42, 1991–95) correspond to above-mean accumulation at most sites. Correlations of the accumulation-rate records with sea-level pressure (SLP) and the SOI suggest that accumulation near the ice divide and in the Ross drainage system may be associated with the mid-latitudes. The post-1970 increase in accumulation coupled with strong SLP–accumulation-rate correlations near the coast suggests recent intensification of cyclonic activity in the Pine Island– Thwaites drainage system.

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Modern atmospheric monitoring using pollen analysis of ice cores: a case study from the Elbrus Western Plateau, Caucasus, Russia

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8202 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Vlada Batalova ◽

Vladimir Mikhalenko ◽

Stanislav Kutuzov ◽

Lyudmila Shumilovskikh ◽

Karim Shukurov

Keyword(s):

High Altitude ◽

Pollen Analysis ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

Ice Core ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Testate Amoebae ◽

Forest Belt ◽

Russian Science ◽

Flexible Tool ◽

Atmospheric Monitoring

The report highlights the results of first ice-core palynology studies from the Elbrus Western Plateau. The title of the highest point in Europe and the geographical location of Elbrus determine the diversity of natural conditions and, as a result, palynological spectra, which act as markers of seasonal vegetation, climate dynamics, fires and anthropogenic activities in the Mediterranean, southern European Russia, the Middle East, and North Africa.The 24-m ice core from the Elbrus Western Plateau collected in 2017 (5115 m a.s.l., 43&#1086;20&#8242;53,9&#8242;&#8242; N, 42&#1086;25&#8242;36&#8242;&#8242; E) covers the period 2012-2017. Pollen analysis revealed a significant number of biological markers contained in the ice core, including pollen and spores, fungi, algae, testate amoebae, feather barbules, microcharcoal, and black carbon.The obtained results show that taxonomic diversity and concentration of biomarkers in the ice core were determined by the seasons of the year and their inherent convective flows. Pollen assemblages are characterized by predominance of native Caucasian plant species. Among them pollen values of Picea forming the high-altitude forest belt in the Western Caucasus significantly exceed pollen frequency of Pinus growing near the upper timber line on Elbrus Mt in the Central Caucasus that suggests a westerlies of air masses and transfer of microparticles. A high abundance of non-pollen palynomorphs in pollen assemblages demonstrates a high potential for studying of human impact on mountain ecosystems. The first pollen data from the ice core evidences a promising resource of the high-altitude temperate glaciers as a flexible tool for atmospheric monitoring of microparticle transfer and fixing its seasonality and biotic relationships.This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project &#8470; 17-17-01270.

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Multivariate framework for the assessment of key forcing to Lake Malawi level variations in non-stationary frequency analysis

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment ◽

10.1007/s10661-020-08519-4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 192 (9) ◽

Author(s):

Cosmo Ngongondo ◽

Yanlai Zhou ◽

Chong-Yu Xu

Keyword(s):

Lake Level ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Lake Malawi ◽

Extreme Value ◽

Information Criteria ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Water Evaporation ◽

Lake Levels ◽

Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

Abstract Lake Malawi in south eastern Africa is a very important freshwater system for the socio-economic development of the riparian countries and communities. The lake has however experienced considerable recession in the levels in recent years. Consequently, frequency analyses of the lake levels premised on time-invariance (or stationarity) in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution functions (pdfs) can no longer be assumed. In this study, the role of hydroclimate forcing factors (rainfall, lake evaporation, and inflowing discharge) and low frequency climate variability indicators (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation-ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode-IODM) on lake level variations is investigated using a monthly mean lake level dataset from 1899 to 2017. Non-stationarity in the lake levels was tested and confirmed using the Mann-Kendall trend test (α = 0.05 level) for the first moment and the F test for the second moment (α = 0.05 level). Change points in the series were identified using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test. The study also compared stationary and non-stationary lake level frequency during 1961 to 2004, the common period where data were available for all the forcing factors considered. Annual maximum series (AMS) and peak over threshold (POT) analysis were conducted by fitting various candidate extreme value distributions (EVD) and parameter fitting methods. The Akaike information criteria (AIC), Bayesian information criteria (BIC), deviance information criteria (DIC), and likelihood ratios (RL) served as model evaluation criteria. Under stationary conditions, the AMS when fitted to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was found to be superior to POT analysis. For the non-stationary models, open water evaporation as a covariate of the lake levels with the GEV and MLE was found to have the most influence on the lake level variations as compared with rainfall, discharge, and the low frequency climatic forcing. The results are very critical in flood zoning especially with various planned infrastructural developments around the lakeshore.

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Solar radiation, cloudiness and longwave radiation over low-latitude glaciers: implications for mass-balance modelling

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/002214309788608822 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 55 (190) ◽

pp. 292-302 ◽

Cited By ~ 55

Author(s):

Thomas Mölg ◽

Nicolas J. Cullen ◽

Georg Kaser

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Global Radiation ◽

Longwave Radiation ◽

Balance Model ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Peruvian Andes ◽

Tropical Glaciers ◽

Clear Sky ◽

Physically Based ◽

Radiation Parameterizations

AbstractBroadband radiation schemes (parameterizations) are commonly used tools in glacier mass-balance modelling, but their performance at high altitude in the tropics has not been evaluated in detail. Here we take advantage of a high-quality 2 year record of global radiation (G ) and incoming longwave radiation (L ↓) measured on Kersten Glacier, Kilimanjaro, East Africa, at 5873 m a.s.l., to optimize parameterizations of G and L ↓. We show that the two radiation terms can be related by an effective cloud-cover fraction neff , so G or L ↓ can be modelled based on neff derived from measured L ↓ or G, respectively. At neff = 1, G is reduced to 35% of clear-sky G, and L ↓ increases by 45–65% (depending on altitude) relative to clear-sky L ↓. Validation for a 1 year dataset of G and L ↓ obtained at 4850 m on Glaciar Artesonraju, Peruvian Andes, yields a satisfactory performance of the radiation scheme. Whether this performance is acceptable for mass-balance studies of tropical glaciers is explored by applying the data from Glaciar Artesonraju to a physically based mass-balance model, which requires, among others, G and L ↓ as forcing variables. Uncertainties in modelled mass balance introduced by the radiation parameterizations do not exceed those that can be caused by errors in the radiation measurements. Hence, this paper provides a tool for inclusion in spatially distributed mass-balance modelling of tropical glaciers and/or extension of radiation data when only G or L ↓ is measured.

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Glacier recession and water resources in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2012jog11j186 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 58 (207) ◽

pp. 134-150 ◽

Cited By ~ 160

Author(s):

Michel Baraer ◽

Bryan G. Mark ◽

Jeffrey M. McKenzie ◽

Thomas Condom ◽

Jeffrey Bury ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Dry Season ◽

Glacier Retreat ◽

Cordillera Blanca ◽

Tropical Glaciers ◽

Daily Discharge ◽

Synthetic Time Series ◽

Nonparametric Statistical

AbstractThe tropical glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are rapidly retreating, resulting in complex impacts on the hydrology of the upper Río Santa watershed. The effect of this retreat on water resources is evaluated by analyzing historical and recent time series of daily discharge at nine measurement points. Using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, the significance of trends in three hydrograph parameters was studied. Results are interpreted using synthetic time series generated from a hydrologic model that calculates hydrographs based on glacier retreat sequences. The results suggest that seven of the nine study watersheds have probably crossed a critical transition point, and now exhibit decreasing dry-season discharge. Our results suggest also that once the glaciers completely melt, annual discharge will be lower than present by 2-30% depending on the watershed. The retreat influence on discharge will be more pronounced during the dry season than at other periods of the year. At La Balsa, which measures discharge from the upper Río Santa, the glacier retreat could lead to a decrease in dry-season average discharge of 30%.

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