Body Roundness Index Is a Superior Obesity Index in Predicting Diabetes Risk Among Hypertensive Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study in China

Objective: Individuals with both hypertension and diabetes have been confirmed to significantly increase the risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality compared with those with only hypertension or diabetes. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of different anthropometric indices for predicting diabetes risk among hypertensive patients.Methods: The study group consisted of 6,990 hypertensive adults without diabetes who were recruited in China. Demographic and clinical assessment, physical examinations, laboratory tests, and anthropometric measurements, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and novel indices (ABSI, AVI, BAI, BRI, CI, WWI, and WHHR), were performed at baseline and during the (median) 3-year follow-up. Cox regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects from these indices for the onset of diabetes. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess the predictive capacities of the anthropometric indices and determine the optimal cut-points.Results: A total of 816 (11.7%) developed diabetes during our prospective study. Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed weight, WC, WHR, WHtR, BAI, BRI, and WWI as the independent risk factor for diabetes among hypertensive patients, regardless of whether it was treated as a continuous or categorical variable (P < 0.05). Further Cox analyses combining BMI and different central obesity indices showed that elevated WC, WHR, WHtR, AVI, BRI, CI, regardless of the general obesity status, were found to be each independently associated with increased diabetes risk (P < 0.05). Dynamic increases of BRI < 5.24 to BRI ≥ 5.24 were associated with increased risk (HR = 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02, 1.64), and its reversal was associated with reduced risk (HR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.23, 1.98) compared with the others (HR = 1.95; 95% CI, 1.63, 2.32). ROC analysis indicated that the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) of the anthropometric indices ranged from 0.531 to 0.63, with BRI (cut-off value = 4.62) and WHtR having the largest area.Conclusions: Based on this novel study, BRI was the most superior predictor and independent determinant for diabetes onset among the hypertensive population. Hypertensive patients with BRI > 4.62, regardless of general obesity status, were at high risk of diabetes. Thus, the prompt screening and diagnosis of diabetes should be carried out among these patients for timely integrated intervention.

Download Full-text

Abstract 3269: Association of Aortic Regurgitation with Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Hypertensive Patients with Left Ventricle Hypertrophy: The LIFE study

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.116.suppl_16.ii_735-c ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 116 (suppl_16) ◽

Author(s):

Zhibin Li ◽

Kristian Wachtell ◽

Sverre E. Kjeldsen ◽

Stevo Julius ◽

Michael H. Olsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Aortic Regurgitation ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Left Ventricular ◽

Morbidity And Mortality ◽

Hypertensive Patients ◽

Life Study ◽

Cardiovascular Morbidity And Mortality ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Lv Mass ◽

Ventricle Hypertrophy

Background : Whether aortic regurgitation (AI) is associated with higher cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality in hypertension with electrocardiographic (ECG) left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is unknown. Methods : Hypertensive patients with ECG-LVH were randomized to losartan- or atenolol-based treatment and followed for 4.8 years in the Losartan Intervention For Endpoint reduction in hypertension (LIFE) study. In the LIFE echo substudy, echocardiograms were used to detect AI. Baseline clinical, echocardiographic variables and cardiovascular endpoints data were used in current analyses. Results: The presence of AI was detected in 132 participants (68 women; 68.4 ± 7.3 years). AI was associated with older age (p < 0.001) but not gender. After adjustment for age, AI was associated with significantly increased LV mass indexed by body surface area (BSA) and height 2.7 (both p < 0.005), echocardiographic eccentric LVH (p < 0.05) but not concentric left ventricular (LV) geometry (p < 0.05). After adjusting for significant confounders including history of CV disease, Framingham risk score, randomized antihypertensive therapy, LV eccentric geometry, LV mass indexed by BSA and height 2.7 , multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that AI was independently associated with 2.83-fold more CV death (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12 to 7.13), 2.24-fold more all-cause mortality (95% CI 1.17 to 4.28) (both p < 0.05). Conclusion : In hypertensive patients with ECG-LVH, AI independently identifies patients at increased risk of CV and all-course mortality.

Download Full-text

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: A retrospective cohort study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-70014/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Akin Osibogun ◽

Akin Abayomi ◽

Oluchi Kanma-Okafor ◽

Jide Idris ◽

Abimbola Bowale ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Critical Illness ◽

Retrospective Cohort Study ◽

Retrospective Cohort ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Outcome Data ◽

Morbidity And Mortality ◽

P Value ◽

Hypertensive Patients ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract Background: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described.Methods: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 6 2020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of an additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P<0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR=2.41, P=0.001, 95%CI=1.4–4.0, death: HR=2.30, P=0.001, 95%CI=1.2–4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR=3.76, P=0.001, 95%CI=2.1–6.4, death: crude HR=6.63, P=0.001, 95%CI=3.4–1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. Conclusion: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.

Download Full-text

FC 125DIURETIC USE IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED RISK FOR POSTTRANSPLANTATION DIABETES MELLITUS IN RENAL TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS

Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation ◽

10.1093/ndt/gfab147.004 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Sara Sokooti Oskooei ◽

Sok Cin Tye ◽

Rianne M. Douwes ◽

Hiddo Lambers Heerspink ◽

Stephan Bakker

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Renal Transplant ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Loop Diuretics ◽

Renal Transplant Recipients ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Transplant Recipients ◽

Prospective Longitudinal Study ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Prospective Longitudinal

Abstract Background and Aims Posttransplantation diabetes Mellitus (PTDM) is one of the major medical problems in renal transplant recipients (RTRs). Diuretic-induced hyperglycemia and diabetes have been described in the general population. We aimed to investigate whether diuretics also increase PTDM risk in RTRs. Method We included 486 stable outpatient RTRs (with a functioning graft ≥1 year) without diabetes from a prospective longitudinal study (the Transplantlines Food and Nutrition Study [NCT02811835]). Participants were classified as diuretic users and non-diuretic users based on their medication use recording at baseline. PTDM was defined according the American Diabetes Association’s diagnostic criteria for diabetes. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses were performed to assess the prospective association between diuretic use and the risk of PTDM development. Results Median time since transplantation was 5.4 (2.0-12.2) years and 168 (35%) RTRs were taking diuretics. After 5.2 (IQR, 4.0 5.9) years of follow up, 54 (11%) RTRs developed PTDM. In Kaplan-Meier (log-rank test, p<0.001) and Cox regression analyses, diuretic use was found to be associated with incident PTDM after adjustment for age, sex, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and HbA1c (hazard ratio[HR] 3.28, 95% CI 1.84-5.83; p<0.001). The association remained independent of further adjustment for potential confounders, including lifestyle, use of other medication, kidney function, transplantation-specific parameters, BMI, lipids, and blood pressure. Exploratory analyses further indicates that, in Cox regression analyses, both thiazide (n=74) and loop diuretics (n=76) as two main types of diuretics used among RTRs appeared to be associated with the development of PTDM, independent of age, sex, FPG, and HbA1c ([HR 2.70, 95% CI 1.24-5.29; p=0.012], and [HR 5.08, 95% CI 2.49-10.34; p<0.001], respectively). Conclusion This study demonstrates that diuretics overall, associated with the risk of developing PTDM in RTRs, independent of established risk factors for PTDM development. The association was consistent for thiazide and loop diuretics.

Download Full-text

Development and Validation of a Five-Gene Signature to Predict Relapse-Free Survival in Multiple Sclerosis

Frontiers in Neurology ◽

10.3389/fneur.2020.579683 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 ◽

Author(s):

Fei Ye ◽

Jie Liang ◽

Jiaoxing Li ◽

Haiyan Li ◽

Wenli Sheng

Keyword(s):

Gene Expression ◽

Multiple Sclerosis ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Roc Curves ◽

Gene Signature ◽

Integrated Analysis ◽

Healthy Controls ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Relapse Free Survival ◽

Free Survival

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system with a variable natural history of relapse and remission. Previous studies have found many differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the peripheral blood of MS patients and healthy controls, but the value of these genes for predicting the risk of relapse remains elusive. Here we develop and validate an effective and noninvasive gene signature for predicting relapse-free survival (RFS) in MS patients.Methods: Gene expression matrices were downloaded from Gene Expression Omnibus and ArrayExpress. DEGs in MS patients and healthy controls were screened in an integrated analysis of seven data sets. Candidate genes from a combination of protein–protein interaction and weighted correlation network analysis were used to identify key genes related to RFS. An independent data set (GSE15245) was randomized into training and test groups. Univariate and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator–Cox regression analyses were used in the training group to develop a gene signature. A nomogram incorporating independent risk factors was developed via multivariate Cox regression analyses. Kaplan–Meier methods, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and Harrell's concordance index (C-index) were used to estimate the performance of the gene signature and nomogram. The test group was used for external validation.Results: A five-gene signature comprising FTH1, GBP2, MYL6, NCOA4, and SRP9 was used to calculate risk scores to predict individual RFS. The risk score was an independent risk factor, and a nomogram incorporating clinical parameters was established. ROC curves and C-indices demonstrated great performance of these predictive tools in both the training and test groups.Conclusions: The five-gene signature may be a reliable tool for assisting physicians in predicting RFS in clinical practice. We anticipate that these findings could not only facilitate personalized treatment for MS patients but also provide insight into the complex molecular mechanism of this disease.

Download Full-text

Women with Metabolic Syndrome and General Obesity Are at a Higher Risk for Significant Hyperuricemia Compared to Men

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm8060837 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 837 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

In Young Kim ◽

Kyung-Do Han ◽

Da Hye Kim ◽

Yeonghee Eun ◽

Hoon-Suk Cha ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Metabolic Syndrome ◽

Serum Uric Acid Level ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

General Obesity ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽

Health And Nutrition ◽

Adult Participants ◽

Potential Biomarker ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Korean Adult

Hyperuricemia is an emerging potential biomarker for metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its complications. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors of hyperuricemia, particularly, the association of hyperuricemia with MetS and general obesity according to sex. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses using the 2016 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Hyperuricemia was defined by a serum uric acid level ≥7.0 mg/dL for men and ≥6.0 mg/dL for women. General obesity was based on a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2. Among a total of 5591 Korean adult participants, 685 (12.3%) individuals had hyperuricemia. Hyperuricemia was significantly associated with MetS in men (odds ratio (OR): 2.38, 95% CI: 1.84–3.08) and in women (OR: 4.15, 95% CI: 2.75–6.28) after adjustments. General obesity was also independently related to hyperuricemia in both sexes (OR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.76–2.68 in men, OR: 3.80, 95% CI: 2.82–5.12 in women). In subgroup analyses, the presence of concomitant MetS and general obesity posed a strikingly higher risk for hyperuricemia among women (OR: 7.24, 95% CI: 4.56–11.50) when compared to men (OR: 2.90, 95% CI: 2.12–3.96). More attention should be paid to the increased risk of hyperuricemia for females with both MetS and general obesity.

Download Full-text

Incidence and predictors of early seizures in intracerebral haemorrhage and the effect of tranexamic acid

European Stroke Journal ◽

10.1177/2396987320901391 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 123-129

Author(s):

Zhe Kang Law ◽

Timothy J England ◽

Amit K Mistri ◽

Lisa J Woodhouse ◽

Lesley Cala ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tranexamic Acid ◽

Intracerebral Haemorrhage ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Independent Predictor ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

Younger Age ◽

Increased Risk ◽

First 90 Days ◽

Early Seizures

Introduction Seizures are common after intracerebral haemorrhage. Tranexamic acid increases the risk of seizures in non-intracerebral haemorrhage population but its effect on post-intracerebral haemorrhage seizures is unknown. We explored the risk factors and outcomes of seizures after intracerebral haemorrhage and if tranexamic acid increased the risk of seizures in the Tranexamic acid for IntraCerebral Haemorrhage-2 trial. Patients and methods Seizures were reported prospectively up to day 90. Cox regression analyses were used to determine the predictors of seizures within 90 days and early seizures (≤7 days). We explored the effect of early seizures on day 90 outcomes. Results Of 2325 patients recruited, 193 (8.3%) had seizures including 163 (84.5%) early seizures and 30 (15.5%) late seizures (>7 days). Younger age (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.98 per year increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97–0.99; p = 0.008), lobar haematoma (aHR 5.84, 95%CI 3.58–9.52; p < 0.001), higher National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (aHR 1.03, 95%CI 1.01–1.06; p = 0.014) and previous stroke (aHR 1.66, 95%CI 1.11–2.47; p = 0.013) were associated with early seizures. Tranexamic acid did not increase the risk of seizure within 90 days. Early seizures were associated with worse modified Rankin Scale (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.79, 95%CI 1.12–2.86, p = 0.015) and increased risk of death (aOR 3.26, 95%CI 1.98–5.39; p < 0.001) at day 90. Discussion and conclusion: Lobar haematoma was the strongest independent predictor of early seizures after intracerebral haemorrhage. Tranexamic acid did not increase the risk of post-intracerebral haemorrhage seizures in the first 90 days. Early seizures resulted in worse functional outcome and increased risk of death.

Download Full-text

Adolescent obesity by different growth charts and its efficacy with central adiposity among school-age children in Mumbai

International Journal of Population Studies ◽

10.18063/ijps.v4i2.844 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Anita Patil ◽

Priti Patil ◽

Prashant Bhandarkar

Keyword(s):

Central Obesity ◽

Indian Academy ◽

Adolescent Obesity ◽

Overweight And Obesity ◽

School Age Children ◽

School Age ◽

Central Adiposity ◽

General Obesity ◽

Obesity Status ◽

Obesity Indices

Adolescent obesity can be defined using various age- and sex-specific growthcharts. In addition to general obesity, central adiposity is also crucially important. This paperaims to study the efficacy of central adiposity with general obesity using different growthcharts recommendations. A cross-sectional study was conducted among school-age children inMumbai. Anthropometric data were obtained from 1349 adolescents aged 9–15 years. Growthcharts of Indian Academy of Pediatrics (IAP), International Obesity Task Force (IOTF), andWorld Health Organization (WHO) were used to classify overweight and obese status amongeach of the participants. Central obesity indices such as the waist circumference (WC), thewaist to height ratio (WHtR), and the waist to hip ratio (WHR) were calculated. The efficacy ofeach of central obesity indices was checked with overweight and obesity status. The receiversoperating characteristics curves were drawn to check the efficacy of central obesity indices.According to IAP, IOTF, and WHO chart, the prevalence rates of overweight and obese amongthe sampled adolescents were 35.9%, 27.0%, and 25.0%, respectively, while, 26.5%, 26.3%,and 31% were found to be centrally obese as per WC, WHtR, and WHR, respectively. Thevalues of area under curve for WC and WHtR were found between 0.857 and 0.942 for all threemethods, while the corresponding values were between 0.611 and 0.689, indicating that WHRis a less robust indicator. We conclude that the central obesity status appears to be an efficientmeasure to identify the general obesity status irrespective of growth chart recommendations.WHtR and WC are found to be more robust indicators of general obesity.

Download Full-text

Abnormal Expression and Prognostic Significance of Bone Morphogenetic Proteins and Their Receptors in Lung Adenocarcinoma

BioMed Research International ◽

10.1155/2021/6663990 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-23

Author(s):

Zhixiao Xu ◽

Chengshui Chen

Keyword(s):

Lung Adenocarcinoma ◽

Mrna Expression ◽

Risk Score ◽

Prognostic Model ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Roc Curves ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

Normal Lung ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Bmp Receptors

Background. Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is one of the most life-threatening malignancies. The crucial role of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)/BMP receptors reveals the significance of exploring BMP protein-related prognostic predictors in LUAD. Methods. The mRNA expression of BMPs/BMP receptors was investigated in LUAD and normal lung tissues. Gene Ontology and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway analyses were performed, and the prognostic values were assessed by Kaplan-Meier Plotter. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were executed to ascertain the correlation between overall survival (OS) and the mRNA expression of BMPs/BMP receptors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were implemented to evaluate the predictive power of the prognostic model. Then, the prognostic model was validated in the GEO cohort. Furthermore, a nomogram comprising the prognostic model was established. Results. The mRNA expression of BMP2/5/6/R2, ACVRL1, and TGFBR2/3 was lower in LUAD tissues than in normal lung tissues. High expression of BMP2/4/5/R1A/R2, ACVR1/2A/L1, and TGFBR1/3 was associated with better OS, while BMP7 and ACVR1C/2B were associated with poorer OS. Three genes (BMP5, BMP7, and ACVR2A) were screened by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to develop the prognostic model in TCGA. Significantly better survival was observed in LUAD patients with a low-risk score than those with a high-risk score. The ROC curves confirmed the good performance of the prognostic model, then, the prognostic model was validated in the GSE31210 dataset. A nomogram was constructed (AUCs>0.7). And hub genes were further evaluated, including gene set enrichment analysis and immune cell infiltration. Conclusions. BMP5, BMP7, and ACVR2A are potential therapeutic targets in LUAD. The three-gene prognostic model and the nomogram are reliable tools for predicting the OS of LUAD patients.

Download Full-text

Gene Signature And Prognostic Values of m5C-Related Regulators In Colon Adenocarcinoma

10.21203/rs.3.rs-952509/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yuancheng Huang ◽

Chaoyuan Huang ◽

Xiaotao Jiang ◽

Yanhua Yan ◽

Kunhai Zhuang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prognostic Value ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Colon Adenocarcinoma ◽

Predictive Biomarkers ◽

Roc Curves ◽

The Cancer Genome Atlas ◽

Risk Scores ◽

Rna Modification ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Prognostic Features

Abstract Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of 13 m5C-related regulators in colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) and determine their prognostic value.Main Methods: Gene expression and clinicopathological data were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets. The expression of m5C-related regulators were analyzed with clinicopathological characteristics and alterations within m5C-related regulators. Subsequently, different subtypes of patients with COAD were identified. Then, the prognostic value of m5C-related regulators in COAD were confirmed via univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analyses. The prognostic value of risk scores was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Additionally, Gene Set Enrichment Analysisc (GSEA), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes c (KEGG) pathways, and Gene Ontologyc (GO) analysis were performed for biological functional analysis.Results: m5C-related regulators were found to be differentially expressed in COAD with different clinicopathological features. We observed a high alteration frequency in these genes, which were significantly correlated with their mRNA expression levels. Two clusters with different prognostic features were identified. Based on two independent prognostic m5C-related regulators (NSUN6 and ALYREF), a risk signature with good predictive significance was constructed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses suggested that the risk score was an independent prognostic factor. Biological processes and pathways associated with cancer, immune response, and RNA processing were identified.Conclusion: We revealed the genetic signatures and prognostic values of m5C-related regulators in COAD. Together, this has improved our understanding of m5C RNA modification and provided novel insights to identify predictive biomarkers and develop molecular targeted therapy for COAD.

Download Full-text

The validity of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score for the prediction of the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke, and total mortality

European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation ◽

10.1097/01.hjr.0000174793.31812.21 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 451-458 ◽

Cited By ~ 49

Author(s):

Karri Silventoinen ◽

James Pankow ◽

Jaana Lindström ◽

Pekka Jousilahti ◽

Gang Hu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Coronary Heart Disease ◽

Heart Disease ◽

Risk Score ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Density Lipoprotein ◽

Total Mortality ◽

Roc Curves ◽

Diabetes Risk ◽

Blood Pressures ◽

Diabetes Risk Score

Background Cardiovascular disease shares several risk factors with type 2 diabetes. We tested whether the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), recently developed in a Finnish population to estimate the future risk of diabetes, would also identify individuals at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and total mortality in this same population. Design Independent risk factor surveys were conducted in 1987, 1992, and 1997 in Finland, comprising 8268 men and 9457 women aged 25-64 years and free of CHD and stroke at baseline. During the follow-up until the end of 2001, 699 incident acute CHD events, 324 acute stroke events, and 765 deaths occurred. Methods The data were analysed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Cox-regression model. Results The areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were 71% for CHD, 73% for stroke, and 68% for total mortality in men and 78, 68, and 72% in women, respectively. The addition of systolic and diastolic blood pressures, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking increased the AUC values modestly (the change of the absolute values from 2.6 to 6.5%), but the additional use of plasma glucose had only a slight effect on the AUC values for CHD and stroke. Conclusions The FINDRISC is a reasonably good predictor of CHD, stroke and total mortality.

Download Full-text