scholarly journals Projection of the Precipitation Extremes in Thailand Under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Precipitation Total ◽  
Southern Thailand ◽  
Annual Precipitation Total ◽  
June July

This study explores the predicted extreme precipitation during 2020–2029 in Thailand, using the output of the nested regional climate model (NRCM) with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The research used five different extreme precipitation indices, i.e., annual precipitation total (PRCPTOT), the annual number of rainy days (RD), simple daily intensity index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDDs), and consecutive wet days (CWD). The PRCTOT was generally located in eastern Thailand, with significant declining trends, while the increasing trend was found in northern Thailand. The quantity of the PRCPTOT varies marginally from 100 to 200 mm per decade. The annual RD was influenced mostly by the negative trends in Thailand. A remarkable trend is a rising of annual SDII, with major statistical increases ranging from 5 to 20%. A widespread decline in CWD was found in most regions. The statistically significant pattern of CWD has been geographically concentrated in the northern, southern, and eastern regions of Thailand. Southern Thailand continues to decline by −10 to −30%. A drastic decline has been observed in the south of Thailand. Projected interannual precipitation variability shows that December–January–February (DJF) variability will be greater than either annual or June–July–August (JJA) variability in most years, with the exception of 2022, 2025, and 2026, in which the JJA variability will be greater than both the annual variability and the DJF variability.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (7) ◽  
pp. 2389-2403
Author(s):  
Ismael Núñez-Riboni ◽  
Marc H Taylor ◽  
Alexander Kempf ◽  
Miriam Püts ◽  
Moritz Mathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Southern Bight ◽  
Spatially Resolved ◽  
The North

Abstract Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evdokia Tapoglou ◽  
Anthi Vozinaki ◽  
Ioannis Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

Evaluation of extreme precipitation over the Nordic region using a convection-permitting regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika Toivonen ◽  
Danijel Belušić ◽  
Emma Dybro Thomassen ◽  
Peter Berg ◽  
Ole Bøssing Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Mesh Resolution ◽  
Grid Mesh

<p>Extreme precipitation events have a major impact upon our society. Although many studies have indicated that it is likely that the frequency of such events will increase in a warmer climate, little has been done to assess changes in extreme precipitation at a sub-daily scale. Recently, there is more and more evidence that <span>high-resolution convection-permitting models </span><span>(CPMs)</span> (grid-mesh typically < 4 km) can represent especially short-duration precipitation extremes more accurately when compared with coarser-resolution <span>regional climate model</span><span>s </span><span>(RCMs)</span><span>.</span></p><p>This study investigates sub-daily and daily precipitation characteristics based on hourly <span>output data from the HARMONIE-Climate model </span>at 3-km and 12-km grid-mesh resolution over the Nordic region between 1998 and 2018. The RCM modelling chain uses the ERA-Interim reanalysis to drive a 12-km grid-mesh simulation which is further downscaled to 3-km grid-mesh resolution using a non-hydrostatic model set-up.</p><p>The statistical properties of the modeled extreme precipitation are compared to several sub-daily and daily observational products, including gridded and in-situ gauge data, from April to September. We investigate the skill of the model to represent different aspects of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation as well as intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves that are commonly used to investigate short duration extremes from an urban planning perspective. The high grid resolution combined with the 20-year-long simulation period allows for a robust assessment at a climatological time scale <span>and enables us to examine the added value of high-resolution </span><span>CPM</span><span> in reproducing precipitation extremes over the Nordic </span><span>region</span><span>. </span><span>Based on the tentative results, the high-resolution CPM can realistically capture the </span><span>characteristics </span><span>of precipitation extremes, </span><span>for instance, </span><span>in terms of improved diurnal cycle and maximum intensities of sub-daily precipitation.</span></p>

Future extreme precipitation frequency in the eastern Mediterranean: a new approach exploiting climate model projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Marra ◽  
Moshe Armon ◽  
Davide Zoccatelli ◽  
Osama Gazal ◽  
Chaim Garfinkel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Extreme Quantiles

<p>Understanding extreme precipitation under changing climatic conditions is crucial to manage weather- and flood-related hazards. Global and regional climate models are able to provide coarse scale information on future conditions under different emission scenarios, but large uncertainties affect the projected precipitation amounts, extremes in particular, so that frequency analyses cannot be quantitatively trusted. This study uses, for the first time, the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) approach to directly exploit synoptic scale information, better represented by climate models, for obtaining projections of future extreme precipitation frequency.</p><p>We use historical rainfall data from >400 stations in Israel and Jordan to (a) provide a climatology of extreme daily precipitation (e.g., the 100-year return period amounts) in the steep climatic gradients of the region and (b) improve understanding of the SMEV description under changing climate. We demonstrate that, using SMEV, it is possible to (c) present the sensitivity of extreme quantiles to occurrence and intensity of Mediterranean lows and other synoptic systems, and (d) project future extreme quantiles starting from synoptic scale information generated by earlier climate-model-based studies. Under our working hypotheses, we project a general decrease of extreme precipitation quantiles for the RCP8.5 scenario; an increase is detected in the coastal region and the Negev arid lands. We discuss the apparent contrast of these results with previous findings.</p>

Hydrological Processes in Regional Climate Model Simulations of the Central United States Flood of June–July 1993

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 584-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Anderson ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
Zaitao Pan ◽  
Eugene S. Takle ◽  
William J. Gutowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
June July

scholarly journals Bias correction of temperature and precipitation over China for RCM simulations using the QM and QDM methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Tong ◽  
Xuejie Gao ◽  
Zhenyu Han ◽  
Yaqi Xu ◽  
Ying Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
June July August ◽  
June July

Abstract Two different bias correction methods, the quantile mapping (QM) and quantile delta mapping (QDM), are applied to simulated daily temperature and precipitation over China from a set of 21st century regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM4) projections. The RegCM4 is driven by five different general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 at a grid spacing of 25 km using the CORDEX East Asia domain. The focus is on mean temperature and precipitation in December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA). The impacts of the two methods on the present day biases and future change signals are investigated. Results show that both the QM and QDM methods are effective in removing the systematic model biases during the validation period. For the future changes, the QDM preserves the temperature change signals well, in both magnitude and spatial distribution, while the QM artificially modifies the change signal by decreasing the warming and modifying the patterns of change. For precipitation, both methods preserve the change signals well but they produce greater magnitude of the projected increase, especially the QDM. We also show that the effects of bias correction are variable- and season-dependent. Our results show that different bias correction methods can affect in different way the simulated change signals, and therefore care has to be taken in carrying out the bias correction process.

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