Development of a Novel Autophagy-Related Prognostic Signature and Nomogram for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the seventh most common malignancy and the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths. Autophagy plays a crucial role in the development and progression of HCC.MethodsUnivariate and Lasso Cox regression analyses were performed to determine a gene model that was optimal for overall survival (OS) prediction. Patients in the GSE14520 and GSE54236 datasets of the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were divided into the high-risk and low-risk groups according to established ATG models. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for OS for the purpose of constructing nomograms. Calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate model performance. Real-time PCR was used to validate the effects of the presence or absence of an autophagy inhibitor on gene expression in HepG2 and Huh7 cell lines.ResultsOS in the high-risk group was significantly shorter than that in the low-risk group. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) indicated that the association between the low-risk group and autophagy- as well as immune-related pathways was significant. ULK2, PPP3CC, and NAFTC1 may play vital roles in preventing HCC progression. Furthermore, tumor environment analysis via ESTIMATION indicated that the low-risk group was associated with high immune and stromal scores. Based on EPIC prediction, CD8+ T and B cell fractions in the TCGA and GSE54236 datasets were significantly higher in the low-risk group than those in the high-risk group. Finally, based on the results of univariate and multivariate analyses three variables were selected for nomogram development. The calibration plots showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observations. Inhibition of autophagy resulted in the overexpression of genes constituting the gene model in HepG2 and Huh7 cells.ConclusionsThe current study determined the role played by autophagy-related genes (ATGs) in the progression of HCC and constructed a novel nomogram that predicts OS in HCC patients, through a combined analysis of TCGA and gene expression omnibus (GEO) databases.

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Development and validation of a novel ten-gene prognostic signature for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2020.38.15_suppl.e16665 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽

pp. e16665-e16665

Author(s):

Taicheng Zhou ◽

Zhihua Cai ◽

Ning Ma ◽

Wenzhuan Xie ◽

Chan Gao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽

Overall Survival ◽

High Risk ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

Gene Signature ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

Prognosis Prediction

e16665 Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a major challenge for public health worldwide and long-term outcomes remained dismal despite availability of curative treatment. We aimed to construct a multi-gene model for prognosis prediction to inform clinical management of HCC. Methods: RNA-seq data of paired tumor and normal tissue samples of HCC patients from the TCGA and GEO database were used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs). DEGs shared by both cohorts along with patients’ survival data of the TCGA cohort were further analyzed using univariate Cox regression and LASSO Cox regression to build a prognostic 10-gene signature, followed by validation of the signature via ICGC cohort and identification of independent prognostic predictors. A nomogram for prognosis prediction was built and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) was performed to further understand the underlying molecular mechanisms. Results: Of 571 patients (70.93% men and 29.07% women; median age [IQR], 65 [56-72] years), a signature of 10 genes was constructed using the training cohort. In the testing and validation cohorts, the signature significantly stratified patients into low- vs high-risk groups in terms of overall survival across and within subpopulations with stage I/II and III/IV disease and remained as an independent prognostic factor in multivariate analyses (hazard ratio range, 0.13 [95% CI, 0.07-0.24; P < 0 .001] to 0.38 [95% CI, 0.2-0.71; P < 0.001]) after adjusting for clinicopathological factors. Prognosis was significantly worse in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group across cohorts (P < 0.001 for all). The 10-gene signature achieved a higher accuracy (C-index, 0.84; AUCs for 1-, 3- and 5-year OS, 0.84, 0.81 and 0.85, respectively) than 8 previously reported multigene signatures (C-index range, 0.67 to 0.73; AUCs range, 0.68 to 0.79, 0.68 to 0.80 and 0.67 to 0.78, respectively) for estimation of survival in comparable cohorts. A nomogram incorporating tumor stage and signature-based risk group showed better predictive performance for 1- and 3- year survival than for 5 year survival. Moreover, GSEA revealed that the pathways related to cell cycle regulation were more prominently enriched in the high-risk group while the low-risk group had higher enrichment of metabolic process. Conclusions: Taken together, we established a robust 10-gene signature and a nomogram to predict overall survival of HCC patients, which may help recognize high-risk patients potentially benefiting from more aggressive treatment.

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Discovery and validation of immune- related long non-coding RNA biomarkers associated with prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

10.21203/rs.3.rs-17851/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Li Liu ◽

She Tian ◽

Zhu Li ◽

Yongjun Gong ◽

Hao Zhang

Keyword(s):

Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽

High Risk ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

Survival Curve ◽

Principal Component ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Cox Regression Analysis ◽

Immune Related Genes

Abstract Background : Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common clinical malignant tumors, resulting in high mortality and poor prognosis. Studies have found that LncRNA plays an important role in the onset, metastasis and recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma. The immune system plays a vital role in the development, progression, metastasis and recurrence of cancer. Therefore, immune-related lncRNA can be used as a novel biomarker to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods : The transcriptome data and clinical data of HCC patients were obtained by using The Cancer Genome Atlas-Liver Hepatocellular Carcinoma (TCGA‑LIHC), and immune-related genes were extracted from the Molecular Signatures Database (IMMUNE RESPONSE M19817 and IMMUNE SYSTEM PROCESS M13664). By constructing the co-expression network and Cox regression analysis, 13 immune-lncRNAs was identified to predict the prognosis of HCC patients. Patients were divided into high risk group and low risk group by using the risk score formula, and the difference in overall survival (OS) between the two groups was reflected by Kaplan-Meier survival curve. The time - dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to evaluate 13 immune -lncRNAs signature. Results : Through TCGA - LIHC extracted from 343 cases of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma RNA - Seq data and clinical data, 331 immune-related genes were extracted from the Molecular Signatures Database , co-expression networks and Cox regression analysis were constructed, 13 immune-lncRNAs signature was identified as biomarkers to predict the prognosis of patients. At the same time using the risk score median divided the patients into high risk and low risk groups, and through the Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis found that high-risk group of patients' overall survival (OS) less low risk group of patients. The AUC value of the ROC curve is 0.828, and principal component analysis (PCA) results showed that patients could be clearly divided into two parts by immune-lncRNAs, which provided evidence for the use of 13 immune-lncRNAs signature as prognostic markers. Conclusion : Our study identified 13 immune-lncRNAs signature that can effectively predict the prognosis of HCC patients, which may be a new prognostic indicator for predicting clinical outcomes.

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Identification of a Five-Autophagy-Related-lncRNA Signature as a Novel Prognostic Biomarker for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Frontiers in Molecular Biosciences ◽

10.3389/fmolb.2020.611626 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

Author(s):

Xiaoyu Deng ◽

Qinghua Bi ◽

Shihan Chen ◽

Xianhua Chen ◽

Shuhui Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽

High Risk ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

The Cancer Genome Atlas ◽

Prognostic Signature ◽

Prediction Ability ◽

Cox Regression Analysis

Although great progresses have been made in the diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), its prognostic marker remains controversial. In this current study, weighted correlation network analysis and Cox regression analysis showed significant prognostic value of five autophagy-related long non-coding RNAs (AR-lncRNAs) (including TMCC1-AS1, PLBD1-AS1, MKLN1-AS, LINC01063, and CYTOR) for HCC patients from data in The Cancer Genome Atlas. By using them, we constructed a five-AR-lncRNA prognostic signature, which accurately distinguished the high- and low-risk groups of HCC patients. All of the five AR lncRNAs were highly expressed in the high-risk group of HCC patients. This five-AR-lncRNA prognostic signature showed good area under the curve (AUC) value (AUC = 0.751) for the overall survival (OS) prediction in either all HCC patients or HCC patients stratified according to several clinical traits. A prognostic nomogram with this five-AR-lncRNA signature predicted the 3- and 5-year OS outcomes of HCC patients intuitively and accurately (concordance index = 0.745). By parallel comparison, this five-AR-lncRNA signature has better prognosis accuracy than the other three recently published signatures. Furthermore, we discovered the prediction ability of the signature on therapeutic outcomes of HCC patients, including chemotherapy and immunotherapeutic responses. Gene set enrichment analysis and gene mutation analysis revealed that dysregulated cell cycle pathway, purine metabolism, and TP53 mutation may play an important role in determining the OS outcomes of HCC patients in the high-risk group. Collectively, our study suggests a new five-AR-lncRNA prognostic signature for HCC patients.

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A Four-Gene-Based Prognostic Model Predicts Overall Survival in Patients With Cutaneous Melanoma

Frontiers in Oncology ◽

10.3389/fonc.2021.639874 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 ◽

Author(s):

Xiaoxia Tong ◽

Xiaofei Qu ◽

Mengyun Wang

Keyword(s):

Gene Expression ◽

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Cutaneous Melanoma ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Rank Test ◽

Score Model

BackgroundCutaneous melanoma (CM) is one of the most aggressive cancers with highly metastatic ability. To make things worse, there are limited effective therapies to treat advanced CM. Our study aimed to investigate new biomarkers for CM prognosis and establish a novel risk score system in CM.MethodsGene expression data of CM from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets were downloaded and analyzed to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The overlapped DEGs were then verified for prognosis analysis by univariate and multivariate COX regression in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets. Based on the gene signature of multiple survival associated DEGs, a risk score model was established, and its prognostic and predictive role was estimated through Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis and log-rank test. Furthermore, the correlations between prognosis related genes expression and immune infiltrates were analyzed via Tumor Immune Estimation Resource (TIMER) site.ResultsA total of 103 DEGs were obtained based on GEO cohorts, and four genes were verified in TCGA datasets. Subsequently, four genes (ADAMDEC1, GNLY, HSPA13, and TRIM29) model was developed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The K-M plots showed that the high-risk group was associated with shortened survival than that in the low-risk group (P < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis suggested that the model was an independent prognostic factor (high-risk vs. low-risk, HR= 2.06, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, the high-risk group was prone to have larger breslow depth (P< 0.001) and ulceration (P< 0.001).ConclusionsThe four-gene risk score model functions well in predicting the prognosis and treatment response in CM and will be useful for guiding therapeutic strategies for CM patients. Additional clinical trials are needed to verify our findings.

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Comprehensive analysis of the significance of ferroptosis-related genes in the prognosis and immunotherapy of oral squamous cell carcinoma

10.21203/rs.3.rs-115737/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Junhao Yin ◽

Xiaoli Zeng ◽

Zexin Ai ◽

Miao Yu ◽

Yang'ou Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gene Expression ◽

Overall Survival ◽

Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽

High Risk ◽

Tumor Microenvironment ◽

Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Regression Analyses

Abstract Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a life-threatening disease that emerged as a major international health concern, associated with poor prognosis and the absence of specific biomarkers. Studies have shown that the ferroptosis-related genes (FRGs) can be used as tumor prognostic markers. However, FRGs’ prognostic value in OSCC needs further exploration. Our aim was to construct a novel FRG signature for overall survival (OS) prediction in OSCC patients and explore its role in immunotherapy.Methods: In our study, gene expression profile and clinical data of OSCC patients were collected from a public domain. FRGs were available from the FerrDb database. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to construct a multigene signature. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) methods were utilized to test the effectiveness of the FRG signature. A differential gene expression analysis was performed by the limma R package, followed by functional enrichment analyses. CIBERSORT was applied to analyze the tumor microenvironment (TME). Finally, the expression of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) and immune checkpoint molecules were analyzed to confirm the sensitivity of immunotherapy.Results: A total of 103 FRGs, expressed in OSCC (FRGs-OSCC), were identified from the two datasets by the Venn analysis. The Cox regression analysis identified 5 FRGs-OSCC that were associated with overall survival (all P < 0.01). The FRGs-OSCC risk model was established to classify patients into high risk and low risk groups. Compared with the low risk group, the survival time of the high-risk group was significantly reduced (P < 0.001). According to the multivariate Cox regression analyses, the risk score acted as an independent predictor for OS (HR > 1, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the FRGs-OSCC risk predictive model was confirmed by ROC curve analysis. The results of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) showed significant enrichment of immune-related pathways, and a difference in tumor microenvironment between the two groups. The low risk group had the characteristics of higher expression of HLA and immune checkpoints (IDO1, LAG3, PDCD1 and TIGHT), a lower tumor purity and a higher infiltration of immune cells, indicating a more sensitive response to immunotherapy.Conclusions: The novel FRGs-OSCC risk score system can be used to predict OSCC prognosis. Ferroptosis targeting may be a therapeutic option for OSCC.

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An autophagy-related long non-coding RNA signature for patients with colorectal cancer

Physiology International ◽

10.1556/2060.2021.00125 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dongyan Zhao ◽

Xizhen Sun ◽

Sidan Long ◽

Shukun Yao

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Overall Survival ◽

High Risk ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

Expression Profiles ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

Cox Regression Analysis

AbstractAimLong non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been identified to regulate cancers by controlling the process of autophagy and by mediating the post-transcriptional and transcriptional regulation of autophagy-related genes. This study aimed to investigate the potential prognostic role of autophagy-associated lncRNAs in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.MethodsLncRNA expression profiles and the corresponding clinical information of CRC patients were collected from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Based on the TCGA dataset, autophagy-related lncRNAs were identified by Pearson correlation test. Univariate Cox regression analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis (LASSO) Cox regression model were performed to construct the prognostic gene signature. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used to further clarify the underlying molecular mechanisms.ResultsWe obtained 210 autophagy-related genes from the whole dataset and found 1187 lncRNAs that were correlated with the autophagy-related genes. Using Univariate and LASSO Cox regression analyses, eight lncRNAs were screened to establish an eight-lncRNA signature, based on which patients were divided into the low-risk and high-risk group. Patients’ overall survival was found to be significantly worse in the high-risk group compared to that in the low-risk group (log-rank p = 2.731E-06). ROC analysis showed that this signature had better prognostic accuracy than TNM stage, as indicated by the area under the curve. Furthermore, GSEA demonstrated that this signature was involved in many cancer-related pathways, including TGF-β, p53, mTOR and WNT signaling pathway.ConclusionsOur study constructed a novel signature from eight autophagy-related lncRNAs to predict the overall survival of CRC, which could assistant clinicians in making individualized treatment.

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Identification of Novel Tumor Microenvironment-Related Long Non-coding RNAs to Predict the Prognosis for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

10.21203/rs.3.rs-877901/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Shenglan Huang ◽

Jian Zhang ◽

Dan Li ◽

Xiaolan Lai ◽

Lingling Zhuang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽

High Risk ◽

Tumor Microenvironment ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Clinicopathological Parameters ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

The Impact

Abstract Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors with poor prognosis. Tumor microenvironment (TME) plays a vital role in the tumor progression of HCC. Thus, we aimed to analyze the association of TME with HCC prognosis, and construct an TME-related lncRNAs signature for predicting the prognosis of HCC patients.Methods: We firstly assessed the stromal/immune /Estimate scores within the HCC microenvironment using the ESTIMATE algorithm based on TCGA database, and its associations with survival and clinicopathological parameters were also analyzed. Then, different expression lncRNAs were filtered out according to immune/stromal scores. Cox regression was performed to built an TME-related lncRNAs risk signature. Kaplan–Meier analysis was carried out to explored the prognostic values of the risk signature. Furthermore, we explored the biological functions and immune microenvironment feathers in high- and low risk groups. Lastly, we probed the association of the risk signature with the treatment responses to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in HCC by comparing the immunophenoscore (IPS).Results: Stromal/immune /Estimate scores of HCC patients were obtained based on the ESTIMATE algorithm. The Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed the high stromal/immune/ Estimate scores were significantly associated with better prognosis of the HCC patients. Then, six TME-related lncRNAs were screened for constructing the prognosis model. Kaplan-Meier survival curves suggested that HCC patients in high-risk group had worse prognosis than those with low-risk. ROC curve and Cox regression analyses demonstrated the signature could predict HCC survival exactly and independently. Function enrichment analysis revealed that some tumor- and immune-related pathways associated with HCC tumorigenesis and progression might be activated in high-risk group. We also discovered that some immune cells, which were beneficial to enhance immune responses towards cancer, were remarkably upregulated in low-risk group. Besides, there was closely correlation of immune checkmate inhibitors (ICIs) with the risk signature and the signature can be used to predict treatment response of ICIs.Conclusions: We analyzed the impact of the tumor microenvironment scores on the prognosis of patients with HCC. A novel TME-related prognostic risk signature was established, which may improve prognostic predictive accuracy and guide individualized immunotherapy for HCC patients.

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Development and Validation of a Lncrnas-Based Nomogram for Survival Prediction in Neuroblastoma Patients

10.21203/rs.3.rs-448031/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yong Lv ◽

ShuGuang Jin ◽

Bo Xiang

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Risk Score ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Validation Cohort ◽

Risk Group ◽

Enrichment Analysis ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

Gene Set Enrichment

Abstract BackgroundTreatment of neuroblastoma is evolving toward precision medicine. LncRNAs can be used as prognostic biomarkers in many types of cancer.MethodsBased on the RNA-seq data from GSE49710, we built a lncRNAs-based risk score using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) regression. Cox regression, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the association of the LASSO risk score with overall survival. Nomograms were created and then validated in an external cohort from TARGET database. Gene set enrichment analysis was performed to identify the significantly changed biological pathways. ResultsThe 16-lncRNAs-based LASSO risk score was used to separate patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. In GSE49710 cohort, the high-risk group exhibited a poorer OS than those in the low-risk group (P<0.001). Moreover, multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that LASSO risk score was an independent risk factor (HR=6.201;95%CI:2.536-15.16). The similar prognostic powers of the 16-lncRNAs were also achieved in the external cohort and in stratified analysis. In addition, a nomogram was established and worked well both in the internal validation cohort (C-index=0.831) and external validation cohort (C-index=0.773). The calibration plot indicated the good clinical utility of the nomogram. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) indicated that high-risk group was related with cancer recurrence, metastasis and inflammatory associated pathways.ConclusionThe lncRNA-based LASSO risk score is a promising and potential prognostic tool in predicting the survival of patients with neuroblastoma. The nomogram combined the lncRNAs and clinical parameters allows for accurate risk assessment in guiding clinical management.

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Identification of an Immune-Related Signature Predicting Survival Risk and Immune Microenvironment in Gastric Cancer

Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology ◽

10.3389/fcell.2021.687473 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Shuang Dai ◽

Tao Liu ◽

Xiao-Qin Liu ◽

Xiao-Ying Li ◽

Ke Xu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gastric Cancer ◽

T Cell ◽

High Risk ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽

Effector Memory ◽

Immune Microenvironment

Background: Tumor immune microenvironment plays a vital role in tumorigenesis and progression of gastric cancer (GC), but potent immune biomarkers for predicting the prognosis have not been identified yet.Methods: At first, RNA-sequencing and clinical data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were mined to identify an immune-risk signature using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate stepwise Cox regression analyses. Furthermore, the risk score of each sample was calculated, and GC patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group based on their risk scores. Subsequently, the performance of this signature, including the correlation with overall survival (OS), clinical features, immune cell infiltration, and immune response, has been tested in GC data from TCGA database and Gene Expression Omnibus (GSE84437), respectively.Results: An immune signature composed of four genes (MAGED1, ACKR3, FZD2, and CTLA4) was constructed. The single sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) indicated that activated CD4+/CD8+ T cell, activated dendritic cell, and effector memory CD8+ T cell prominently increased in the low-risk group, showing relatively high immune scores and low stromal scores. Further GSEA analysis indicated that TGF-β, Ras, and Rap1 pathways were activated in the high-risk group, while Th17/Th1/Th2 differentiation, T cell receptor and PD-1/PD-L1 checkpoint pathways were activated in the low-risk group. Low-risk patients presented higher tumor mutation burden (TMB) and expression of HLA-related genes. The immune-associated signature showed an excellent predictive ability for 2-, 3-, and 5-year OS in GC.Conclusion: The immune-related prognosis model contributes to predicting the prognosis of GC patients and providing valuable information about their response to immunotherapy using integrated bioinformatics methods.

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Identification of a novel autophagy signature for predicting survival in patients with lung adenocarcinoma

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.11074 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e11074

Author(s):

Jin Duan ◽

Youming Lei ◽

Guoli Lv ◽

Yinqiang Liu ◽

Wei Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gene Expression ◽

High Risk ◽

Immune Cell ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Risk Group ◽

Risk Groups ◽

High Risk Group ◽

Low Risk ◽

Cell Analysis ◽

Prognostic Signature

Background Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the most commonhistological lung cancer subtype, with an overall five-year survivalrate of only 17%. In this study, we aimed to identify autophagy-related genes (ARGs) and develop an LUAD prognostic signature. Methods In this study, we obtained ARGs from three databases and downloaded gene expression profiles from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. We used TCGA-LUAD (n = 490) for a training and testing dataset, and GSE50081 (n = 127) as the external validation dataset.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox and multivariate Cox regression models were used to generate an autophagy-related signature. We performed gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) and immune cell analysis between the high- and low-risk groups. A nomogram was built to guide the individual treatment for LUAD patients. Results We identified a total of 83 differentially expressed ARGs (DEARGs) from the TCGA-LUAD dataset, including 33 upregulated DEARGs and 50 downregulated DEARGs, both with thresholds of adjusted P < 0.05 and |Fold change| > 1.5. Using LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analyses, we identified 10 ARGs that we used to build a prognostic signature with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.705, 0.715, and 0.778 at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Using the risk score formula, the LUAD patients were divided into low- or high-risk groups. Our GSEA results suggested that the low-risk group were enriched in metabolism and immune-related pathways, while the high-risk group was involved in tumorigenesis and tumor progression pathways. Immune cell analysis revealed that, when compared to the high-risk group, the low-risk group had a lower cell fraction of M0- and M1- macrophages, and higher CD4 and PD-L1 expression levels. Conclusion Our identified robust signature may provide novel insight into underlying autophagy mechanisms as well as therapeutic strategies for LUAD treatment.

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