scholarly journals Climate Impact Mitigation Potential of Formation Flight

Aerospace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Tobias Marks ◽  
Katrin Dahlmann ◽  
Volker Grewe ◽  
Volker Gollnick ◽  
Florian Linke ◽  
...  

The aerodynamic formation flight, which is also known as aircraft wake-surfing for efficiency (AWSE), enables aircraft to harvest the energy inherent in another aircraft’s wake vortex. As the thrust of the trailing aircraft can be reduced during cruise flight, the resulting benefit can be traded for longer flight time, larger range, less fuel consumption, or cost savings accordingly. Furthermore, as the amount and location of the emissions caused by the formation are subject to change and saturation effects in the cumulated wake of the formation can occur, AWSE can favorably affect the climate impact of the corresponding flights. In order to quantify these effects, we present an interdisciplinary approach combining the fields of aerodynamics, aircraft operations and atmospheric physics. The approach comprises an integrated model chain to assess the climate impact for a given air traffic scenario based on flight plan data, aerodynamic interactions between the formation members, detailed trajectory calculations as well as on an adapted climate model accounting for the saturation effects resulting from the proximity of the emissions of the formation members. Based on this approach, we derived representative AWSE scenarios for the world’s major airports by analyzing and assessing flight plans. The resulting formations were recalculated by a trajectory calculation tool and emission inventories for the scenarios were created. Based on these inventories, we quantitatively estimated the climate impact using the average temperature response (ATR) as climate metric, calculated as an average global near surface temperature change over a time horizon of 50 years. It is shown, that AWSE as a new operational procedure has a significant mitigation potential on climate impact. For a global formation flight scenario, we estimated the average relative change of climate response to range between 22% and 24% while the relative fuel saving effects sum up to 5–6%.

Aerospace ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin Dahlmann ◽  
Sigrun Matthes ◽  
Hiroshi Yamashita ◽  
Simon Unterstrasser ◽  
Volker Grewe ◽  
...  

An operational measure that is inspired by migrant birds aiming toward the mitigation of aviation climate impact is to fly in aerodynamic formation. When this operational measure is adapted to commercial aircraft it saves fuel and is, therefore, expected to reduce the climate impact of aviation. Besides the total emission amount, this mitigation option also changes the location of emissions, impacting the non-CO2 climate effects arising from NOx and H2O emissions and contrails. Here, we assess these non-CO2 climate impacts with a climate response model to assure a benefit for climate not only due to CO2 emission reductions, but also due to reduced non-CO2 effects. Therefore, the climate response model AirClim is used, which includes CO2 effects and also the impact of water vapor and contrail induced cloudiness as well as the impact of nitrogen dioxide emissions on the ozone and methane concentration. For this purpose, AirClim has been adopted to account for saturation effects occurring for formation flight. The results of the case studies show that the implementation of formation flights in the 50 most popular airports for the year 2017 display an average decrease of fuel consumption by 5%. The climate impact, in terms of average near surface temperature change, is estimated to be reduced in average by 24%, with values of individual formations between 13% and 33%.


2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5332-5343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Spence ◽  
John C. Fyfe ◽  
Alvaro Montenegro ◽  
Andrew J. Weaver

Abstract A global climate model with horizontal resolutions in the ocean ranging from relatively coarse to eddy permitting is used to investigate the resolution dependence of the Southern Ocean response to poleward intensifying winds through the past and present centuries. The higher-resolution simulations show poleward migration of distinct ocean fronts associated with a more highly localized near-surface temperature response than in the lower-resolution simulations. The higher-resolution simulations also show increasing southward eddy heat transport, less high-latitude cooling, and greater sea ice loss than the lower-resolution simulations. For all resolutions, from relatively coarse to eddy permitting, there is poleward migration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Atlantic and the western half of the Indian basin. Finally, zonal transports associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are shown to be sensitive to resolution, and this is discussed in the context of recent observed change.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svenya Chripko ◽  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Laurent Terray ◽  
Laurent Bessières ◽  
...  

<p>Previous climate model studies have shown that Arctic sea ice decline can solely affect weather and climate at lower latitudes during the cold season. However, the mechanisms beneath this linkage are poorly understood. Whether sea ice loss have had an influence on the lower latitudes climate over the past decades is also uncertain (Barnes and Screen 2015). The goal of this work is to better understand the relative contributions of dyncamical and thermodynamical changes in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss, which have been suggested to oppose each other (Screen 2017). We conducted two sets of sensitivity transient experiments that allow to isolate the effect of Arctic sea ice decline on the mid-latitudes from other climate forcings, using the climate model CNRM-CM6 (Voldoire et al. 2019) in a coupled configuration or with an atmosphere-only. The first set of experiments, that is part of the European H2020 PRIMAVERA project, consists of a 100-member ensemble in which sea ice albedo is reduced to the ocean value (PERT) in the fully coupled CNRM-CM6, and which is compared to a 1950 control run (CTL) (Haarsma et al. 2016). This yields idealised ice-free conditions in summer and a more moderate sea ice reduction during the following months. The second set of experiments, that is part of the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP, Smith et al. 2019), consists of a 300-member ensemble in which the atmospheric component of CNRM-CM6 is forced by sea ice anomalies associated with a future 2°C warming (FUT) and present day sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These are compared to experiments in which the atmosphere is forced by present-day sea ice conditions (PD) and the same SSTs. To extract the dynamical component of the response in the two sets of experiments, we use a dynamical adjustment method (Deser et al. 2016) based on a regional reconstruction of circulation analogs. We focus on three mid-latitudes regions in which a significant near-surface temperature response has been identified, namely North America, Europe and central Asia. We show that the cooling occurring over central Asia in both sets of experiments is dynamically-induced through an intensification of the Siberian High, and that opposed temperature responses over North America between the two sets of experiments could be explained by opposed dynamical components occurring in response to the imposed Arctic sea ice decline. Finally, we discuss whether different dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in the PAMIP multi-model experiments could explain the multi-model differences in the atmospheric response to sea ice loss.</p>


Aerospace ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Unterstrasser

Formation flight is one potential measure to increase the efficiency of aviation. Flying in the upwash region of an aircraft’s wake vortex field is aerodynamically advantageous. It saves fuel and concomitantly reduces the carbon foot print. However, CO2 emissions are only one contribution to the aviation climate impact among several others (contrails, emission of H2O and NOx). In this study, we employ an established large eddy simulation model with a fully coupled particle-based ice microphysics code and simulate the evolution of contrails that were produced behind formations of two aircraft. For a large set of atmospheric scenarios, these contrails are compared to contrails behind single aircraft. In general, contrails grow and spread by the uptake of atmospheric water vapour. When contrails are produced in close proximity (as in the formation scenario), they compete for the available water vapour and mutually inhibit their growth. The simulations demonstrate that the contrail ice mass and total extinction behind a two-aircraft formation are substantially smaller than for a corresponding case with two separate aircraft and contrails. Hence, this first study suggests that establishing formation flight may strongly reduce the contrail climate effect.


Aerospace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Michael Ponater ◽  
Marius Bickel ◽  
Lisa Bock ◽  
Ulrike Burkhardt

Contrail cirrus has been emphasized as the largest individual component of aircraft climate impact, yet respective assessments have been based mainly on conventional radiative forcing calculations. As demonstrated in previous research work, individual impact components can have different efficacies, i.e., their effectiveness to induce surface temperature changes may vary. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) has been proposed as a superior metric to compare individual impact contributions, as it may, to a considerable extent, include the effect of efficacy differences. Recent climate model simulations have provided a first estimate of contrail cirrus ERF, which turns out to be much smaller, by about 65%, than the conventional radiative forcing of contrail cirrus. The main reason for the reduction is that natural clouds exhibit a substantially lower radiative impact in the presence of contrail cirrus. Hence, the new result suggests a smaller role of contrail cirrus in the context of aviation climate impact (including proposed mitigation measures) than assumed so far. However, any conclusion in this respect should be drawn carefully as long as no direct simulations of the surface temperature response to contrail cirrus are available. Such simulations are needed in order to confirm the power of ERF for assessing contrail cirrus efficacy.


2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.


2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3903-3931 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Schmidt ◽  
G. P. Brasseur ◽  
M. Charron ◽  
E. Manzini ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper introduces the three-dimensional Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), which treats atmospheric dynamics, radiation, and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth’s surface to the thermosphere (approximately 250 km). It is based on the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and is coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. The model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere, represented, on the one hand, by the 11-yr solar cycle and, on the other hand, by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. The numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. Results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 K in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. Ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. Changes in winds are in general small. In the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. It is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. During Northern Hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 K in the uppermost mesosphere.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Kay ◽  
Jason Chalmers

<p>While the long-standing quest to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity has resulted in intense scrutiny of the processes controlling idealized greenhouse warming, the processes controlling idealized greenhouse cooling have received less attention. Here, differences in the climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations are assessed in state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model experiments. One hundred and fifty years after an imposed instantaneous forcing change, surface global warming from a carbon dioxide doubling (abrupt-2xCO2, 2.43 K) is larger than the surface global cooling from a carbon dioxide halving (abrupt-0p5xCO2, 1.97 K). Both forcing and feedback differences explain these climate response differences. Multiple approaches show the radiative forcing for a carbon dioxide doubling is ~10% larger than for a carbon dioxide halving. In addition, radiative feedbacks are less negative in the doubling experiments than in the halving experiments. Specifically, less negative tropical shortwave cloud feedbacks and more positive subtropical cloud feedbacks lead to more greenhouse 2xCO2 warming than 0.5xCO2 greenhouse cooling. Motivated to directly isolate the influence of cloud feedbacks on these experiments, additional abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-0p5xCO2 experiments with disabled cloud-climate feedbacks were run. Comparison of these “cloud-locked” simulations with the original “cloud active” simulations shows cloud feedbacks help explain the nonlinear global surface temperature response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling. Overall, these results demonstrate that both radiative forcing and radiative feedbacks are needed to explain differences in the surface climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thordis Thorarinsdottir ◽  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Marion Haugen ◽  
Nadine Gissibl ◽  
Marit Sandstad

<p>Reliable projections of extremes in near-surface air temperature (SAT) by climate models become more and more important as global warming is leading to significant increases in the hottest days and decreases in coldest nights around the world with considerable impacts on various sectors, such as agriculture, health and tourism.</p><p>Climate model evaluation has traditionally been performed by comparing summary statistics that are derived from simulated model output and corresponding observed quantities using, for instance, the root mean squared error (RMSE) or mean bias as also used in the model evaluation chapter of the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). Both RMSE and mean bias compare averages over time and/or space, ignoring the variability, or the uncertainty, in the underlying values. Particularly when interested in the evaluation of climate extremes, climate models should be evaluated by comparing the probability distribution of model output to the corresponding distribution of observed data.</p><p>To address this shortcoming, we use the integrated quadratic distance (IQD) to compare distributions of simulated indices to the corresponding distributions from a data product. The IQD is the proper divergence associated with the proper continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as it fulfills essential decision-theoretic properties for ranking competing models and testing equality in performance, while also assessing the full distribution.</p><p>The IQD is applied to evaluate CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of monthly maximum (TXx) and minimum near-surface air temperature (TNn) over the data-dense regions Europe and North America against both observational and reanalysis datasets. There is not a notable difference between the model generations CMIP5 and CMIP6 when the model simulations are compared against the observational dataset HadEX2. However, the CMIP6 models show a better agreement with the reanalysis ERA5 than CMIP5 models, with a few exceptions. Overall, the climate models show higher skill when compared against ERA5 than when compared against HadEX2. While the model rankings vary with region, season and index, the model evaluation is robust against changes in the grid resolution considered in the analysis.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>


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