scholarly journals Changes in Extreme Low Temperature Events over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Future Scenarios

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Hu ◽  
Guwei Zhang ◽  
Gang Zeng ◽  
Zhongxian Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Low Temperature ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
North China ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Almost All

Recently, NCAR (the National Center for Atmospheric Research) released the Community Earth System Model’s low-warming simulations, which provided long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. Based on these data, six extreme low temperature indices—TXn (coldest day), TNn (coldest night), TX10p (cool days), TN10p (cool nights), CSDI (cold spell duration indicator), and DTR (diurnal temperature range)—were calculated to assess the changes in extreme low temperature over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warmer future. The results indicate that compared to the preindustrial level, the whole of China will experience 0.32–0.46 °C higher minimum surface air temperature (SAT) warming than the global average, and the winter temperature increase in Northern China will be the most pronounced over the country. In almost all the regions of Northern China, especially Northeast and Northwest China, extreme low temperature events will occur with lower intensity, frequency, and duration. Compared with the present day, the intensity of low temperature events will decrease most in Northeast China, with TXn increasing by 1.9 °C/2.0 °C and TNn increasing by 2.0 °C/2.5 °C under 1.5 °C/2.0 °C global warming, respectively. The frequency of low temperature events will decrease relatively more in North China, with TX10p decreasing by 8 days/11 days and TN10p decreasing by 7 days/9 days under 1.5 °C/2.0 °C warming. CSDI will decrease most in Northwest China, with decreases of 7 days/10 days with 1.5 °C/2.0 °C warming. DTR will decrease in the Northwest and Northeast but increase in North China, with −0.9 °C/−2.0 °C in the Northwest, −0.4 °C/−1.5 °C in the Northeast, and 1.7 °C/2.0 °C in North China in the 1.5 °C/2.0 °C warming scenarios. For temperatures lower than the 5th percentile, the PRs (probability ratios) will be 0.68 and 0.55 of that of the present day under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warmer futures, respectively. Global warming of 2.0 °C instead of 1.5 °C will lead to extreme low temperature events decreasing by 6–56% in regard to intensity, frequency, and duration over Northern China, and the maximal values of decrease (24–56%) will be seen in Northeast China.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variations of Precipitation in China Using Surface Gauge Observations from 1961 to 2016

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunfei Su ◽  
Chuanfeng Zhao ◽  
Yuan Wang ◽  
Zhanshan Ma
Keyword(s):  
North China ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Precipitation Type ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Light Precipitation

Long-term precipitation trend is a good indicator of climate and hydrological change. The data from 635 ground stations are used to quantify the temporal trends of precipitation with different intensity in China from 1961 to 2016. These sites are roughly uniformly distributed in the east or west regions of China, while fewer sites exist in the western region. The result shows that precipitation with a rate of <10 mm/day dominates in China, with a fraction of >70%. With a 95% confidence level, there is no significant temporal change of annually averaged precipitation in the whole of China. Seasonally, there are no significant temporal changes except for a robust decreasing trend in autumn. Spatially, significant differences in the temporal trends of precipitation are found among various regions. The increasing trend is the largest in Northwest China, and the decreasing trend is the largest in North China. The annually averaged number of precipitation days shows a decreasing trend in all regions except for Northwest China. Regarding precipitation type, the number of light precipitation days shows a robust decreasing trend for almost all regions, while other types show no significant change. Considering the high frequency, the temporal trends of light precipitation could highly explain the temporal variation of the total precipitation amount in China.

Long-term variability of Atlantic water temperature in the Svalbard fjords in conditions of past and recent global warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniil I. Tislenko ◽  
Boris V. Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
The West ◽  
West Spitsbergen

Within last decades, the climate of our planet has underwent remarkable changes. The most notable are those called "Arctic amplification." is the changes comprise a decrease in the area of ​​multi-years ice in 2007 and 2012 in polar regions of the Northern hemisphere, accompanied by the temperature rise of intermediate Atlantic waters, increasing surface temperature. In this paper, an analysis of long-term variability of temperature transformed Atlantic waters (TAW) in the fjords of the West-Spitsbergen island (Isfjorden, Grnfjorden, Hornsund and Kongsfjorden) in the first period (1920–1940) and modern (1990–2009) warming in the Arctic is reported. It is shown that the instrumental observation data corresponds to the periods of rise in temperature in the layer of the TAW and surface air temperature (SAT) for the area of ​​the Svalbard.

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Precipitation to the Long-Term Warming Trend and Interannual–Decadal Variation of Surface Air Temperature over China

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 3687-3703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunlüe Zhou ◽  
Kaicun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Decadal Variation ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Light Precipitation

Abstract Precipitation is expected to increase under global warming. However, large discrepancies in precipitation sensitivities to global warming among observations and models have been reported, partly owing to the large natural variability of precipitation, which accounts for over 90% of its total variance in China. Here, the authors first elucidated precipitation sensitivities to the long-term warming trend and interannual–decadal variations of surface air temperature Ta over China based on daily data from approximately 2000 stations from 1961 to 2014. The results show that the number of dry, trace, and light precipitation days has stronger sensitivities to the warming trend than to the Ta interannual–decadal variation, with 14.1%, −35.7%, and −14.6% K−1 versus 2.7%, −7.9%, and −3.1% K−1, respectively. Total precipitation frequency has significant sensitivities to the warming trend (−18.5% K−1) and the Ta interannual–decadal variation (−3.6% K−1) over China. However, very heavy precipitation frequencies exhibit larger sensitivities to the Ta interannual–decadal variation than to the long-term trend over Northwest and Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau. A warming trend boosts precipitation intensity, especially for light precipitation (9.8% K−1). Total precipitation intensity increases significantly by 13.1% K−1 in response to the warming trend and by 3.3% K−1 in response to the Ta interannual–decadal variation. Very heavy precipitation intensity also shows significant sensitivity to the interannual–decadal variation of Ta (3.7% K−1), particularly in the cold season (8.0% K−1). Combining precipitation frequency and intensity, total precipitation amount has a negligible sensitivity to the warming trend, and the consequent trend in China is limited. Moderate and heavy precipitation amounts are dominated by their frequencies.

scholarly journals Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 6567-6578
Author(s):  
Ádám T. Kocsis ◽  
Qianshuo Zhao ◽  
Mark J. Costello ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Elevated Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Rich spots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesized that rich spots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity rich spots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assessed the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine rich spots. Our analyses confirm the general consensus that global warming will impact almost all rich spots of all three realms and suggest that their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing to other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine rich spots seem to be particularly sensitive to global warming: they have warmed more, have higher climate velocities, and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-rich-spot areas. However, our results also suggest that terrestrial and freshwater rich spots will be somewhat less affected than other areas. These findings emphasize the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.

scholarly journals A New Long-Term Downward Surface Solar Radiation Dataset over China from 1958 to 2015

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 6167
Author(s):  
Ning Hou ◽  
Xiaotong Zhang ◽  
Weiyu Zhang ◽  
Jiawen Xu ◽  
Chunjie Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Variation Trends

Downward surface solar radiation (Rs) plays a dominant role in determining the climate and environment on the Earth. However, the densely distributed ground observations of Rs are usually insufficient to meet the increasing demand of the climate diagnosis and analysis well, so it is essential to build a long-term accurate Rs dataset. The extremely randomized trees (ERT) algorithm was used to generate Rs using routine meteorological observations (2000–2015) from the Climate Data Center of the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CDC/CMA). The estimated Rs values were validated against ground measurements at the national scale with an overall correlation coefficient value of 0.97, a mean bias of 0.04 Wm−2, a root-mean-square-error value of 23.12 Wm−2, and a mean relative error of 9.81%. It indicates that the estimated Rs from the ERT-based model is reasonably accurate. Moreover, the ERT-based model was used to generate a new daily Rs dataset at 756 CDC/CMA stations from 1958 to 2015. The long-term variation trends of Rs at 454 stations covering 46 consecutive years (1970–2015) were also analyzed. The Rs in China showed a significant decline trend (−1.1 Wm−2 per decade) during 1970–2015. A decreasing trend (−2.8 Wm−2 per decade) in Rs during 1970–1992 was observed, followed by a recovery trend (0.23 Wm−2 per decade) during 1992–2015. The recovery trends at individual stations were found at 233 out of 454 stations during 1970–2015, which were mainly located in southern and northern China. The new Rs dataset would substantially provide basic data for the related studies in agriculture, ecology, and meteorology.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variations of the concentrations of PM<sub>10</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub> and PM<sub>1</sub> in China

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 13585-13598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Q. Wang ◽  
X. Y. Zhang ◽  
J. Y. Sun ◽  
X. C. Zhang ◽  
H. Z. Che ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northeast China ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Variation Patterns ◽  
Increasing Trend

Abstract. Concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 were monitored at 24 CAWNET (China Atmosphere Watch Network) stations from 2006 to 2014. The highest particulate matter (PM) concentrations were observed at the stations of Xian, Zhengzhou and Gucheng, on the Guanzhong Plain and the Huabei Plain (HBP). The second highest PM concentrations were observed in northeast China, followed by southern China. According to the latest air quality standards of China, 14 stations reached the PM10 standard, and only 7 stations, mainly rural and remote stations, reached the PM2.5 standard. The ratios of PM2.5 to PM10 showed a clear increasing trend from northern to southern China, because of the substantial contribution of coarse mineral aerosol in northern China. The ratios of PM1 to PM2.5 were higher than 80 % at most stations. PM concentrations tended to be highest in winter and lowest in summer at most stations, and mineral dust influenced the results in spring. A decreasing interannual trend was observed on the HBP and in southern China for the period 2006 to 2014, but an increasing trend occurred at some stations in northeast China. Bimodal and unimodal diurnal variation patterns were identified at urban stations. Both emissions and meteorological variations dominate the long-term PM concentration trend, while meteorological factors play a leading role in the short term.

The potential and limitations of long-term fire regime reconstructions in Eastern Siberia based on sedimentary charcoal and low-temperature fire markers 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Dietze ◽  
Kai Mangelsdorf ◽  
Jasmin Weise ◽  
Heidrun Matthes ◽  
Simeon Lisovski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Temperature ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Eastern Siberia ◽  
Climate Data

&lt;p&gt;Forest fires are an important factor in the global carbon cycle and high latitude ecosystems. Eastern Siberian tundra, summergreen larch-dominated boreal forest on permafrost and evergreen boreal forest have characteristic fire regimes with varying fire intensities. Yet, it is unknown which role fire plays in long-term climate-vegetation-permafrost feedbacks and how high-latitude fire regimes and ecosystems will change in a warmer world. To learn from fire regime shifts during previous interglacials, prior to human presence, we use lake-sedimentary charcoal as proxy for high-intensity forest fires and monosaccharide anhydrides (i.e. levoglucosan, mannosan, galactosan: MA) as molecular proxies for low-temperature biomass burning, typical for surface fires in modern larch forest. However, MA pathways from source to sink and their stability in sediments are very poorly constrained. Recently, Dietze et al. (2020) found MA in up to 420 kyr old sediment of Lake El&amp;#8217;gygytgyn (ICDP Site 5011-1), NE Siberia, suggesting that they are suitable proxies for fires in summergreen boreal forests. Surprisingly, the ratios of the MA isomers were exceptionally low compared to published emission ratios from modern combustions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To understand what MA from Arctic lake sediments tell us, we have analyzed the MA and charcoal composition in modern lake surface sediments of Lake El&amp;#8217;gygytgyn and three East Siberian lakes and we compare them to late glacial-to-interglacial El&amp;#8217;gygytgyn records. The three Siberian lakes were chosen to represent spatial analogues to the El&amp;#8217;gygytgyn conditions during MIS 5e and 11c. We discuss first results of the modern sediments in context of recent MODIS- and Landsat-based fire extents and biome-specific land cover data, a wind field modelling using climate data over eastern Siberia, and lake-catchment configurations from TDX-DEM analysis to assess potential fire proxy source areas and regional-to-local transport processes. Thereby, we provide insights into the meaning of sedimentary fire proxies, crucial for a sound reconstruction of long-term fire regime histories.&lt;/p&gt;

The effects of global warming on soybean yields in a long-term fertilization experiment in Northeast China

2009 ◽  
Vol 147 (5) ◽  
pp. 569-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. F. ZHENG ◽  
L. D. CHEN ◽  
X. Z. HAN
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Present Report ◽  
Analysis Of Covariance ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Recent Climate

SUMMARYUnderstanding how crop systems might respond to recent climate change is fundamental to the successful adaptation of efforts for sustainable agriculture. In the present paper, records over the period 1987–2004 from a long-term agroecosystem experiment carried out in Northeast China were used to explore the impacts of global warming on soybean (Glycine max (L) Merr.) yields under different controlled fertilization treatments. The results indicated that soybean yields were closely related to growing season temperatures. In most fertilization treatments, soybean yields showed a significant negative response to higher daily maximum temperature and greater diurnal temperature range (DTR), whereas they showed a significant positive response to higher daily minimum temperature. Analysis of covariance showed that these responses of soybean yields to temperature variables did not differ across fertilization treatments. Overall, soybean yields have declined significantly due to the warming trends since 1987. This has been mainly attributed to the higher daily maximum temperature. The present report demonstrates that soybean production in Northeast China may face challenges due to global warming unless potential adaptation options are adopted. The true mechanisms behind these yield impacts need further investigation to address effective agricultural adaptations for soybean systems to adapt to global warming.

Stable Isotope Evidence for Recent Global Warming Hiatus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Wang ◽  
Zhongfang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Stable Isotopic ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Isotope Evidence ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Open Question ◽  
New Evidence

&lt;p&gt;Global mean surface air temperature (SAT) has remained relative stagnant since the late 1990s, a phenomenon known as global warming hiatus. Despite widespread concern and discussion, there is still an open question about whether this hiatus exists, partly due to the biases in observations. The stable isotopic composition of precipitation in mid- and high-latitude continents closely tracks change of the air temperature, providing an alternative to evaluate global warming hiatus. Here we use the long-term precipitation &amp;#948;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O records available to investigate changes in SAT over the period 1970&amp;#8211;2016. The results reveal slight decline in &amp;#948;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O anomaly from 1998 to 2012, with a slope of -0.0004&amp;#8240; decade&lt;sup&gt;-1 &lt;/sup&gt;which is significantly different from that of pre-1998 interval. This downward &amp;#948;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O anomaly trend suggests a slight cooling for about -0.001&amp;#176;C decade&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, corroborating&amp;#160;the recent hiatus in global warming. Our work provides new evidence for recent global warming&amp;#160;hiatus and highlights the potential of utilizing precipitation isotope for tracking climate changes.&lt;/p&gt;

Evaluation and Projection of Extreme Precipitation over Northern China in CMIP5 Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Lu
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Group 1

&lt;p&gt;This study evaluates 32 climate models from CMIP5 compared with a daily gridded&lt;br&gt;observation dataset of extreme precipitation indices including total extreme precipitation (R95p),&lt;br&gt;maximum consecutive five days of precipitation (RX5day) and wet days larger than 10 mm of&lt;br&gt;precipitation (R10mm) over Northern China during the historical period (1986&amp;#8211;2005). Results show&lt;br&gt;the majority models have good performance on spatial distribution but overestimate the amplitude of&lt;br&gt;precipitation over Northern China. Most models can also capture interannual variation of R95p and&lt;br&gt;RX5d, but with poor simulations on R10mm. Considering both spatial and temporal factors, the best&lt;br&gt;multi-model ensemble (Group 1) has been selected and improved by 42%, 34%, and 37% for R95p,&lt;br&gt;RX5d, and R10mm, respectively. Projection of extreme precipitation indicates that the fastest-rising&lt;br&gt;region is in Northwest China due to the enhanced rainfall intensity. However, the uncertainty&lt;br&gt;analysis shows the increase of extreme rainfall over Northwest China has a low confidence level.&lt;br&gt;The projection of increasing extreme rainfall over Northeast China from Group 1 due to the longer&lt;br&gt;extreme rainfall days is more credible. The weak subtropical high and southwest winds from Arabian&lt;br&gt;Sea lead to the low wet biases from Group 1 and the cyclonic anomalies over Northeast China, which&lt;br&gt;result in more extreme precipitation.&lt;/p&gt;

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