scholarly journals Agricultural and Forestry Land and Labor Use under Long-Term Climate Change in Chile

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 305
Author(s):  
Oscar Melo ◽  
William Foster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Income Generation ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Average Output ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Municipal Level

The appropriate design of land-use and rural employment policies depends upon the anticipated performance of the farm sector in the context of expected climate changes, especially with respect to land allocations to potential activities. Concerns over the possible net benefits of land-use changes are particularly acute in lower- and middle-income countries, where agriculture tends to be important in employment, income generation and foreign-exchange earnings. This paper presents an analysis of the expected impacts on land use in Chile of projected climate-change scenarios in 2040 and 2070. We developed a farmland allocation model with associated labor employment at the municipal level driven by expected relative net incomes per hectare, constructed from local average per-hectare yields, regional average output prices and per-hectare production cost estimates. The sensitivities of cropland allocations to relative net-income changes were estimated using historical land allocations at the municipal level derived from the last two Chilean Agricultural Censuses. The results show that the impacts of climate changes will be mitigated by land-use adaptation, the main export-earning crops tending to move south; in aggregate, agricultural employment will decrease in all the climate-change scenarios; forestry and agriculture would likely suffer a loss in net-income generation under severe climate-change scenarios.

scholarly journals Scenario-based impacts of land use and climate changes on the hydrology of a lowland rainforest catchment in Ghana, West Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Aduah ◽  
Graham P. W. Jewitt ◽  
Michele L. W. Toucher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Use Scenarios

Abstract. This study analysed the separate and the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on hydrology on the Bonsa catchment in Ghana, West Africa, using the ACRU hydrological model. The study used five RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (wet, 25th percentile, 75th percentile, dry and a multi-model median of nine GCMs) from the CMIP5 AR5 models for near (2020–2039) and far (2060–2079) future time slices. Change factors were used to downscale the GCM scenarios to the local scale, using observed climate data for the control period of 1990 to 2009. The land use of 1991 and 2011 were used as the baseline and current land use as well as three future land use scenarios (BAU, EG, EGR) for two time slices (2030 and 2070) were used. The study showed that under all separate climate change scenarios, overall flows reduced, but under combined climate and land use changes, streamflows increased. Under the combined scenarios, streamflow responses due to the different future land use scenarios were not substantially different. Also, land use is the dominant controlling factor in streamflow changes in the Bonsa catchment under a dry climate change, but under a wet climate change, climate controls streamflow changes. The spatial variability of catchment streamflow changes under combined land use and climate changes were greater than the spatial variability of streamflow changes under climate change. The range of plausible future streamflows changes derived in this study provides natural resources and environmental managers of the Bonsa catchment, the first ever and the most current information to develop suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies, to prepare adequately for climate and land use changes.

scholarly journals Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Yan ◽  
Yanpeng Cai ◽  
Chunhui Li ◽  
Xuan Wang ◽  
Qiang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Runoff Water ◽  
Lulc Change

This study researched the individual and combined impacts of future LULC and climate changes on water balance in the upper reaches of the Beiluo River basin on the Loess Plateau of China, using the scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate data indicated that both precipitation and temperature increased at seasonal and annual scales from 2020 to 2050 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The future land use changes were predicted through the CA-Markov model. The land use predictions of 2025, 2035, and 2045 indicated rising forest areas with decreased agricultural land and grassland. In this study, three scenarios including only LULC change, only climate change, and combined climate and LULC change were established. The SWAT model was calibrated, validated, and used to simulate the water balance under the three scenarios. The results showed that increased rainfall and temperature may lead to increased runoff, water yield, and ET in spring, summer, and autumn and to decreased runoff, water yield, and ET in winter from 2020 to 2050. However, LULC change, compared with climate change, may have a smaller impact on the water balance. On an annual scale, runoff and water yield may gradually decrease, but ET may increase. The combined effects of both LULC and climate changes on water balance in the future were similar to the variation trend of climate changes alone at both annual and seasonal scales. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT model to Assess Land Use and Climate Changes Impacts on Hydrology of Nam Rom River Basin in Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Son Ngo ◽  
Huong Hoang ◽  
Phuong Tran ◽  
Loc Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Hydrological Process

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are two main factors directly affecting hydrologic conditions. However, very few studies in Vietnam have investigated changes in hydrological process under the impact of climate and land use changes on a basin scale. The objective of this study is to assess the individual and combined impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological processes for the Nam Rom river basin, Northwestern Viet Nam using Remote Sensing (RS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. SWAT model was used for hydrological process simulation. Results indicated that SWAT proved to be a powerful tool in simulating the impacts of land use and climate change on catchment hydrology. The change in historical land use between 1992 and 2015 strongly contributed to increasing hydrological processes (ET, percolation, ground water, and water yield), whereas, climate change led to significant decrease of all hydrological components. The combination of land use and climate changes significantly reduced surface runoff (-16.9%), ground water (-5.7%), water yield (-9.2%), and sediment load (-4.9%). Overall climatic changes had more significant effect on hydrological components than land use changes in the Nam Rom river basin during the 1992–2015. Under impacts of projected land use and climate change scenarios in 2030 on hydrological process of the upper Nam Rom river basin indicate that ET and surface flow are more sensitive to the changes in land use and climate in the future. In conclusion, the findings of this study will basic knowledge of the effects of climate and land-use changes on the hydrology for future development of integrated land use and water management practices in Nam Rom river basin.

scholarly journals Modeling the combined impact of future climate and land use changes on streamflow of Xinjiang Basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renhua Yan ◽  
Jiacong Huang ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Junfeng Gao ◽  
Lingyan Qi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Evolution

The response of hydrologic circulation to climate and land use changes is important in studying the historical, present, and future evolution of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensemble and a raster-based Xin'anjiang model were applied to simulate future streamflows under three climate change scenarios and two land use/cover change conditions in the Xinjiang Basin, China, and to investigate the combined effect of future climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow. Simulation results indicated that future climate and land use/cover changes affect not only the seasonal distributions of streamflow, but also the annual amounts of streamflow. For each climate scenario, the average monthly streamflows increase by more than 4% in autumn and early winter, while decreasing by more than −26% in spring and summer for the 21st century. The annual streamflows present a clear decreasing trend of −27%. Compared with land use/cover change, climate change affects streamflow change more. Land use/cover change can mitigate the climate change effect from January to August and enhance it in other months. These results can provide scientific information for regional water resources management and land use planning in the future.

Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-480 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginia H. Dale ◽  
Karen O. Lannom ◽  
M. Lynn Tharp ◽  
Donald G. Hodges ◽  
Jonah Fogel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Adelges Tsugae ◽  
Forest Species

Model projections suggest that both climate and land-use changes have large effects on forest biomass and composition in the Cumberland forests of Tennessee and Kentucky. These forests have high levels of diversity, ecological importance, land-use changes, and pressures due to invasive herbivorous insects and climate change. Three general circulation models project warming for all months in 2030 and 2080 and complex patterns of precipitation change. Climate changes from 1980 to 2100 were developed from these projections and used in the forest ecosystem model LINKAGES to estimate transient changes in forest biomass and species composition over time. These projections show that climate changes can instigate a decline in forest stand biomass and then recovery as forest species composition shifts. In addition, a landscape model (LSCAP) estimates changes in land-cover types of the Cumberlands based on projected land-use changes and the demise of eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière) due to the spread of the hemlock adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand). LSCAP suggests that land-cover changes can be quite large and can cause a decline not only in the area of forested lands but also in the size and number of large contiguous forest patches that are necessary habitat for many forest species characteristic of the Cumberlands.

Hydrological effects of climate and land use changes in regulated vs. unregulated headwaters of Southern Calabria  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Demetrio Antonio Zema ◽  
Giuseppe Bombino ◽  
Bruno Gianmarco Carrà ◽  
Daniela D'agostino ◽  
Pietro Denisi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Check Dams ◽  
Hydrological Effects

<p>Surface runoff rates in torrents are driven by land use and climate changes. Moreover, the effects of control works, such as the check dams, can modify these rates. In the Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds (e.g., in Southern Italy and Spain), this forcing may sum to local factors, such as steep slopes, small drainage areas and heavy and short-duration rainstorms. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the hydrological effects of each action (presence of check dam, land use changes and future climate forcing), in order to control flash floods, soil erosion and landslides at the watershed scale. To this aim, this study evaluates the annual runoff rates in two headwaters of Southern Italy, mainly forested and agricultural, using a modeling approach. More specifically, the well-known Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to Vacale (12.5 sq. km) torrent, regulated by check dams built in ‘1950-1960, and Serra torrent (13.7 sq. km), not regulated. Both sub-watersheds experienced an increase in forest cover up to 70%, while the agricultural land decreased by about 30% of the total area in the period after the construction of the control works until now. Previously, the model was calibrated in a third torrent (Duverso, 12.5 sq. km, gauged for runoff measurements), with the same climatic and geomorphological characteristics, using the automatic calibration by the SWATCUP program. After calibration, SWAT simulated the hydrological response under different land uses (forest, pasture and bare soil, the latter simulating total deforestation) and climate change scenarios (applying a Global Circulation Model, under 2.6 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways) throughout the next 80 years. The results of this modeling experience showed that: (i) the presence of check dams noticeably reduced the hydrological response of the regulated headwater compared to the torrent without check dams; (ii) the vegetal cover of the forestland has been the most important factor in mitigating the surface runoff rate in comparison to the other land uses; (iii) under the future climate change scenarios, the surface runoff will increase with increasing mean temperatures and precipitation intensity. The model outputs help supporting a better understanding on the impacts of control works as well as land use and climate changes on the runoff generation capacity in Mediterranean torrents. These indications are useful to watershed managers in the adoption of the most effective strategy to mitigate flash flood hazards and heavy erosion risks in similar environmental contexts. </p><p>Acknowledgement: This research was funded by ERDF/Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities-State Research Agency (AEI) /Project CGL2017-84625-C2-1-R; State Program for Research, Development and Innovation Focused on the Challenges of Society.</p><p> </p>

Cultivated floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong delta: understanding the changing balance between the flow regime and the agricultural practices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Anna Orieschnig ◽  
Gilles Belaud ◽  
Jean-Philippe Venot ◽  
Sylvain Massuel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Fruit Trees ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water

<p>On the floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong Delta, rainfed and irrigated dry-season agriculture is a crucial source of revenue for the local population. Traditional rice production is being progressively complemented by the cultivation of higher-value crops like maize, fruit trees and vegetables. Fundamentally, the annual monsoon regime and the resulting flood dynamics determine the framework for these agricultural practices, with a wet season lasting from June to November and a peak high flow reached in September. Rice is cultivated after flood recession in lower-lying areas. On higher terrain, fruit trees and vegetables are widely irrigated by farmers using individual pumps to lift water from large-scale communal channels.</p><p><br>However, in recent years, various drivers of change have impacted these long-established dynamics. Climate change is causing shifting precipitation patterns and a modification of annual flow regimes in the Mekong river and its deltaic distributaries. In addition, the irrigation channel infrastructure is being largely rehabilitated by both local initiatives and international development agencies. These measures are rapidly changing the conveyance network for inundation, drainage, and irrigation on the floodplains, with proportions and consequences which are yet unknown. Finally, land use changes driven by market forces - such as the shift to cash crops like mango trees - are modifying the crop water demand in the area. </p><p><br>In this context, the present study aims to provide a thorough understanding and quantification of the effects of these changes with regard to crop water requirements, irrigation efficiency, and agricultural productivity. Extensive fieldwork was carried out on a 44-km² area to gather knowledge of agricultural practices (especially irrigation) and to identify the main local hydrological objects and drivers. The land use and seasonal inundation extents were characterized through remote sensing analyses, using optical Sentinel-2 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 images. On that basis, an eco-hydrological model is being developed on the generic software platform OpenFLUID, explicitly representing the hydraulic connections and irrigation decisions. This tool will be used to highlight possible salient control factors for hydrological processes, and to simulate the direct and indirect effects of climate change scenarios, irrigation and water power infrastructure development, and land use changes on local hydrology, irrigation, and agricultural productivity. </p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Wetland Restoration and Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of the Heeia Coastal Wetland in Hawaii

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kariem A. Ghazal ◽  
Olkeba Tolessa Leta ◽  
Aly I. El-Kadi ◽  
Henrietta Dulai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Daily Streamflow

Hydrological modeling is an important tool that can be used to assess water resources’ availability and sustainability that are necessary for food security and ecological health of coastal regions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on water balance components (WBCs) of the Heeia coastal wetland. We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to capture the unique characteristics of the Hawaiian Islands, including its volcanic soil’s nature and high initial infiltration rates. We used the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty of WBCs under different climate change scenarios. Results of the statistical analysis of daily streamflow simulations showed that the model performance was within the generally acceptable criteria. Under future climate scenarios, rainfall change was the determinant factor most negatively impacting WBCs. Recharge and baseflow components had the highest sensitivity to the combined effects of land use and climate changes, especially during dry season. The uncertainty analysis indicated that the streamflow is projected to slightly increase by the middle of 21st century, but expected to decline by 40% during the late 21st century of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5.

scholarly journals Major United States Land Use as Influenced by an Altering Climate: A Spatial Econometric Approach

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 546
Author(s):  
Sung-Ju Cho ◽  
Bruce McCarl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Pasture Grass ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
The U.S

Climate and socioeconomic and policy factors are found to stimulate land use changes along with changes in greenhouse gas emissions and adaption behaviors. Most of the studies investigating land use changes in the U.S. have not considered potential spatial effects explicitly. We used a two-step linearized multinomial logit to examine the impacts of various factors on conterminous U.S. land use changes including spatial lag coefficients. The estimation results show that the spatial dependences have existed for cropland, pastureland, and grasslands with a negative dependence on forests but weakened in most of the land uses except for croplands. Temperature and precipitation were found to have nonlinear impacts on the land use shares in the succeeding years by exerting opposite effects on crop versus pasture/grass shares. We also predicted land use changes under different climate change scenarios. The simulation results imply that the southern regions of the U.S. would lose cropland shares with further severity under the business-as-usual climate scenarios, while the land use shares for pasture/grass and forest would increase in those regions. As land use plays an important role in the climate system and vice versa, the results from this study may help policymakers tackle climate-driven land use changes and farmers adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals Future Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Multiple Ecosystem Services in a Rapidly Urbanizing Agricultural Basin, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Jun Bi ◽  
Jianshu Lv
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Soil Retention ◽  
Nitrogen Purification

Ecosystem services (ESs) in rapidly urbanizing agricultural basins are vulnerable to environmental changes. Adequately understanding the driving forces and the dynamics of ESs related to water quantity and quality can provide a basis for making sound management decisions on the development of basins. Here, we explored the impacts of future land use and climate changes on four ESs: nitrogen and phosphorous purification, water supply, and soil retention services in the Taihu Basin region of eastern China. Spatially explicit methods, a cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model and the delta downscaling method were used to quantify the ESs, simulate land use changes, and project future climate changes, respectively. We built a business-as-usual land use scenario, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios for climate change, as well as a combined land use and climate change scenario to analyze the changes in the drivers and the responses of ESs. The results showed the following: (1) future land use changes would significantly enhance the nitrogen purification service while reducing the phosphorus purification service compared to other services; (2) climate change would have substantial effects on water supply and soil retention, but these impacts would vary with different RCPs scenarios during three future periods; and (3) the combined scenarios of both drivers would obviously influence all ESs and lead to a nitrogen purification service that was different from the other three services. Moreover, the policy implications of the results were discussed. The findings can help guide the creation of policies for land structure and patterns, climate change adaptation, and ecosystem-based management to promote the sustainable development of watersheds at the regional scale.

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