scholarly journals Temporal Trends in Heat-Related Mortality: Implications for Future Projections

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Kinney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Exposure Response ◽  
Heat Effects ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Related Mortality

High temperatures have large impacts on premature mortality risks across the world, and there is concern that warming temperatures associated with climate change, and in particular larger-than-expected increases in the proportion of days with extremely high temperatures, may lead to increasing mortality risks. Comparisons of heat-related mortality exposure-response functions across different cities show that the effects of heat on mortality risk vary by latitude, with more pronounced heat effects in more northerly climates. Evidence has also emerged in recent years of trends over time in heat-related mortality, suggesting that in many locations, the risk per unit increase in temperature has been declining. Here, I review the emerging literature on these trends, and draw conclusions for studies that seek to project future impacts of heat on mortality. I also make reference to the more general heat-mortality literature, including studies comparing effects across locations. I conclude that climate change projection studies will need to take into account trends over time (and possibly space) in the exposure response function for heat-related mortality. Several potential methods are discussed.

scholarly journals Temporal trends in tolvaptan use after revision of national heart failure guidelines in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuke Yamazaki ◽  
Yasuyuki Shiraishi ◽  
Shun Kohsaka ◽  
Yuji Nagatomo ◽  
Keiichi Fukuda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Hospital Outcomes ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Multicenter Registry ◽  
Over Time

AbstractWithin no definite diuretic protocol for acute heart failure (AHF) patients and its variation in regional clinical guidelines, the latest national guidelines in Japan commends use of tolvaptan in diuretic-resistant patients. This study aimed to examine trends in tolvaptan usage and associated outcomes of AHF patients requiring hospitalization. Between April, 2018 and October, 2019, 1343 consecutive AHF patients (median 78 [69–85] year-old) were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter registry in Japan. Trends over time in tolvaptan usage, along with the severity of heart failure status based on the Get With The Guideline-Heart Failure [GWTG-HF] risk score, and in-hospital outcomes were investigated. During the study period, tolvaptan usage has increased from 13.0 to 28.7% over time (p for trend = 0.07), and 49.4% started tolvaptan within 3 days after admission. The GWTG-HF risk score in the tolvaptan group has significantly decreased over time, while that in the non-tolvaptan group has unchanged. There were no differences in the in-hospital mortality rate between the patients with and without tolvaptan (6.7% vs. 5.8%). After revision of the Japanese clinical practice guidelines for AHF in March 2018, tolvaptan usage for AHF patients has steadily increased. However, in-hospital outcomes including mortality do not seem to be affected.

Increasing incidence of asbestosis worldwide, 1990–2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017

Thorax ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (9) ◽  
pp. 798-800
Author(s):  
Meng Yang ◽  
Dongming Wang ◽  
Shiming Gan ◽  
Lieyang Fan ◽  
Man Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Burden Of Disease ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Global Burden Of Disease ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Regulation Policy ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Disease Study ◽  
Over Time

Global incidence and temporal trends of asbestosis are rarely explored. Using the detailed information on asbestosis from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017, we described the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and its average annual percentage change. A Joinpoint Regression model was applied to identify varying temporal trends over time. Although the use of asbestos has been completely banned in many countries, the ASIR of asbestosis increased globally from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, the most pronounced increases in ASIR of asbestosis were detected in high-income North America and Australasia. These findings indicate that efforts to change the asbestos regulation policy are urgently needed.

scholarly journals Temporal Trends in Tolvaptan Use After Revision of National Heart Failure Guidelines in Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuke Yamazaki ◽  
Yasuyuki Shiraishi ◽  
Shun Kohsaka ◽  
Yuji Nagatomo ◽  
Keiichi Fukuda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Hospital Outcomes ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Multicenter Registry ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Within no definite diuretic protocol for acute heart failure (AHF) patients and its variation in regional clinical guidelines, the latest national guidelines in Japan commends use of tolvaptan in diuretic-resistant patients. This study aimed to examine trends in tolvaptan usage and associated outcomes of AHF patients requiring hospitalization. Between April, 2018 and October, 2019, 1343 consecutive AHF patients (median 78 [69–85] y/o) were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter registry in Japan. Trends over time in tolvaptan usage, along with the severity of heart failure status based on the Get With The Guideline-Heart Failure [GWTG-HF] risk score, and in-hospital outcomes were investigated. During the study period, tolvaptan usage has increased from 13.0% to 28.7% over time (p for trend=0.07), and 49.4% started tolvaptan within 3 days after admission. The GWTG-HF risk score in the tolvaptan group has significantly decreased over time, while that in the non-tolvaptan group has unchanged. There were no differences in the in-hospital mortality rate between the patients with and without tolvaptan (6.7% vs. 5.8%). After revision of the Japanese clinical practice guidelines for AHF in March 2018, tolvaptan usage for AHF patients has steadily increased. However, in-hospital outcomes including mortality do not seem to be affected.

Abstract 72: Temporal Trends in Stroke Incidence Over Time by Sex and Age in the Greater Cincinnati Northern Kentucky Stroke Study

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy E Madsen ◽  
Jane C Khoury ◽  
Michelle Leppert ◽  
Kathleen Alwell ◽  
Charles J Moomaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Bonferroni Correction ◽  
Stroke Incidence ◽  
Stroke Study ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Introduction: Data from the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study (GCNKSS) through 2010 showed that over time, stroke incidence rates decreased to a greater extent in men than in women. We aimed to determine whether this difference continued through 2015 and whether the differences are driven by particular age groups. Methods: Within the GCNKSS population of 1.3 million, all incident strokes among residents ≥20 years old were ascertained at all local hospitals during 7/93–6/94 and calendar years 1999, 2005, 2010, and 2015. Out-of-hospital cases were sampled. Sex-specific incidence rates per 100,000 were adjusted for age and race, standardized to the 2010 U.S. Census. Trends over time by sex were compared (overall and age-stratified); a Bonferroni correction was applied for multiple comparisons. Results: In total over the five study periods, there were 9721 incident strokes (ischemic, ICH, and SAH); 56.4% were women. Incidence of ischemic strokes decreased from 254 (95%CI 236,272) in 1993/4 to 177 (95%CI 164,189) in 2015 among men (p<.0001 for trend over time) and from 204 (95%CI 192,217) in 1993/4 to 151 (95%CI 141,161) in 2015 among women (p<.0001). Incidence of ICH/ SAH did not change significantly over time in either sex. In age-stratified analyses, among women, incidence of all strokes decreased among older adults (65–84 years) but not in other age categories (Figure). Among men, incidence over time decreased among older adults (65–84 and ≥ 85 years) but increased in young adults (20–44 years). Conclusions: Stroke incidence decreased between the early 1990s and 2015 for both sexes, contrary to previous data on trends through 2010 which demonstrated a significant decrease in men but not women. Temporal changes are being driven by the 65–84 year age group in both men and women, as well as the ≥ 85 age group in men. Future prevention strategies should target young and middle age adults for both sexes as well as those over 85 for women.

scholarly journals Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (2) ◽  
pp. 545-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. W. Botzen ◽  
M. L. Martinius ◽  
P. Bröde ◽  
M. A. Folkerts ◽  
P. Ignjacevic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Economic Valuation ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Statistical Life ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract This study examines the impacts of climate change on future mortality in the Netherlands and the related economic costs. Our methods account for changes in both cold- and heat-related mortality for different age classes, the time dynamics associated with temperature-related mortality, demographic change and the urban heat island effect. Results show that heat and cold impacts on mortality vary considerably between age classes, with older people being more vulnerable to temperature extremes. The sensitivity of mortality to temperature is higher on hot (4.6%/°C) than cold (2.1%/°C) days for the most vulnerable group (≥ 80 years), and extreme temperatures have long time lags on mortality, especially in the cold. A main finding is that climate change is expected to first decrease total net mortality in the Netherlands due to a dominant effect of less cold-related mortality, but this reverses over time under high warming scenarios, unless additional adaptation measures are taken. The economic valuation of these total net mortality changes indicates that climate change will result in net benefits of up to €2.3 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life Year and €14.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life approaches in 2050, while this changes over time in net economic costs under high warming scenarios that can reach up to €17.6 billion in 2085. Implementing adaptation policies that reduce the negative impacts of warming on mortality in the heat can turn these net costs into net benefits by achieving a continued dominating effect of reduced mortality in the cold.

scholarly journals Mortality trends and lengths of stay among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ontario and Québec (Canada): a population-based cohort study of the first three epidemic waves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiqing Xia ◽  
Huiting Ma ◽  
David L Buckeridge ◽  
Marc Brisson ◽  
Beate Sander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
The Third ◽  
Icu Stay ◽  
Over Time

AbstractBackgroundEpidemic waves of COVID-19 strained hospital resources. We describe temporal trends in mortality risk and length of stay in intensive cares units (ICUs) among COVID-19 patients hospitalized through the first three epidemic waves in Canada.MethodsWe used population-based provincial hospitalization data from Ontario and Québec to examine mortality risk and lengths of ICU stay. For each province, adjusted estimates were obtained using marginal standardization of logistic regression models, adjusting for patient-level characteristics and hospital-level determinants.ResultsUsing all hospitalizations from Ontario (N=26,541) and Québec (N=23,857), we found that unadjusted in-hospital mortality risks peaked at 31% in the first wave and was lowest at the end of the third wave at 6-7%. This general trend remained after controlling for confounders. The odds of in-hospital mortality in the highest hospital occupancy quintile was 1.2 (95%CI: 1.0-1.4; Ontario) and 1.6 (95%CI: 1.3-1.9; Québec) times that of the lowest quintile. Variants of concerns were associated with an increased in-hospital mortality. Length of ICU stay decreased over time from a mean of 16 days (SD=18) to 15 days (SD=15) in the third wave but were consistently higher in Ontario than Québec by 3-6 days.ConclusionIn-hospital mortality risks and lengths of ICU stay declined over time in both provinces, despite changing patient demographics, suggesting that new therapeutics and treatment, as well as improved clinical protocols, could have contributed to this reduction. Continuous population-based monitoring of patient outcomes in an evolving epidemic is necessary for health system preparedness and response.

scholarly journals The role of irrigation expansion on historical climate change during the last 115 years: insights from CMIP6

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amen Al-Yaari ◽  
Agnes Ducharne ◽  
Wim Thiery ◽  
Frederique Cheruy ◽  
David Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
World Population ◽  
The World ◽  
Over Time

&lt;p&gt;Irrigated areas have increased, faster than the growth of the world population, from around 0.63 million km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; at the start of the 20th century to 3.1 million km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; of land in 2005, that is five times of area in 1900 (0.6 million km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;). Irrigation is one of the land management practices with the largest biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects on climate. However, incorporating land management factors (including irrigation) into most of the state&amp;#8208;of&amp;#8208;the&amp;#8208;art climate models under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) is still overlooked. To our best knowledge, three models, however, take into account irrigation activities: namely NorESM2&amp;#8208;LM, GISS&amp;#8208;E2&amp;#8208;H, and CESM2. The overall objective of the study is to investigate the role of irrigation on climate change at the global scale by looking at temporal trends of Essential Climate variables (ECVs) that characterize the Earth's climate (Evapotranspiration, leaf area index, precipitation, soil moisture, radiation, and air temperature) over the last 115 years (i.e. 1900-2014). Within this investigation, we compared models with irrigation vs. models without irrigation using 20 models from different CMIP6 experiments: coupled land-atmosphere amip (observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations), coupled land-atmosphere-ocean historical simulation, and offline land-hist (land only simulations). Temporal trends over the 1900-2014 period were computed then spatially binned by the &quot;FAO Global Map of Irrigation Areas&quot;, which represents area equipped for irrigation expressed as percentage of total area around the year 2005. For the three CMIP6 experiments, the three models with irrigation switched on showed similar and distinguished behavior from all other models with irrigation switched off over intensively irrigated areas: mean annual evapotranspiration and soil moisture increased over time (positive trends vs. negative or no trends for all other none-irrigation models). This increase in evapotranspiration over time was reflected in the negative trends (i.e. cooling) of annual maximum air temperature for the irrigation models vs. positive trends for most of the none-irrigation models. The ET temporal positive trends over intensively irrigated areas were detected and confirmed by four different satellite-based ET products. The consistent results among the three experiments and confirmed by different satellite data imply the importance of incorporating anthropogenic factors in the next generation of climate models.&lt;/p&gt;

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