scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 in Cameroon and Assessing the Governmental Measures (March–September 2020)

COVID ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 622-644
Author(s):  
Leontine Nkague Nkamba ◽  
Thomas Timothee Manga
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Acute Respiratory Illness ◽  
Convergence Conditions ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
In The Beginning

COVID-19 is an acute respiratory illness in humans caused by a coronavirus, capable of producing severe symptoms and, in some cases, death, especially in older people and those with underlying health conditions. It was originally identified in China in 2019 and became a pandemic in 2020. On 6 March 2020, Cameroon recorded its first cases of infection with COVID-19. The Government of Cameroon (GOC) took 13 barrier measures on 18 March 2020. On 1 May 2020, 19 new measures were adopted, easing restrictions and encouraging economic activity. On 1 June, schools and universities were reopened, after which massive screening began to take place throughout the country. In this study, we have modelled the COVID-19 epidemic in Cameroon in order to assess the governmental measures of response and predict the behaviour of epidemic As a result of these measures, the pandemic evolved in three phases. The first phase began on 18 March and ended on 15 May 2020. During this phase, the actual curve of cumulative positive cases based on field data closely fit the theoretical curve resulting from mathematical modelling. In the beginning of May, we predicted that nearly 3000 positive cases would be declared by mid-May 2020. The actual data confirmed these predictions: there were 2954 cases as of 15 May 2020. The second phase, beyond mid-May 2020, encompasses the period when the GOC’s relaxation of measures takes effect. This phase was marked by an acceleration of the cumulative number of positive cases starting in the third week of May, postponing the expected peak by two weeks. Under Phase 2 conditions, the onset of the peak will occur in early June and extend through the first two weeks of June. However, a third phase occurs in the first week of June, with the reopening of schools and universities combined with massive screening; the peak is therefore expected in the second week of June (around 15 June). The GOC should, at this stage, strengthen its response plan by tripling the current coverage capacity to regain the first phase convergence conditions associated with the first 13 measures. The pandemic will begin its descent in the month of august, but COVID-19 will remain endemic for at least one year.

scholarly journals Kiribati's Strategy in Facing the Problem of Sea Level Rise through the Kiribati Adaptation Program (KAP)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-59
Author(s):  
Maurin Astriviany
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Final Phase ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Expansion Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Two Phases

The vulnerability of the Pacific Region which generally consists of small country and island nations makes countries in the region need to be aware of the threat of sea level rising. Kiribati is one of the countries that will be most affected. Therefore, the Kiribati Adaptation Program is one of the Government’s strategies that collaborated with the World Bank as the main donor party to reduce the adverse effect from sea level Rising. Divided into three phases of the program, we will see how it progresses from one phase to another. In the first phase is preparation for the program to adapt, in the second phase is the time to implement what needs to be done after reviewing the result of the first phase preparation, then in the final phase is the expansion of the program. After two phases, this third phase learned lessons from previous phases which faced few obstacles and need to be fixed before goes up to the expansion stage. Kiribati Adaptation Program will give an idea of how the strategy has been carried out by the Government of Kiribati and might become a lesson for other vulnerable countries in face the  sea level rising.

scholarly journals Studies on certain aspects of root surface fungi III. Effect of harvesting

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-60
Author(s):  
R. S. Kanaujia
Keyword(s):  
Root Surface ◽  
Fungal Species ◽  
Poor Correlation ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Fungal Succession ◽  
Aerial Parts ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Vanilic Acid ◽  
Mycelia Sterilia

The effect of harvesting oi above ground part on the succession of fungi on crown, middle and distal regions of decomposing roots of <i>Pennisetum typhoides</i> (Burm f.) Stapf et Hubb. was investigated for a period of six months (January to June, 1971). The number of fungal species was generally lower in harvested plants than in standing plants whereas the fungal population exhibited the reverse trend. The amino acids, sugars. cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin components of the roots in different vertical regions were assessed and a correlation was established between the above factors and fungal succession in the two sets of plants. It was also noticed that roots in all the depths decomposed earlier than the set where aerial parts were left intact and no phytotoxins were detected in the harvested set against standing one where vanilic acid and 3-4 dihydroxy benzoic acids were chromatogrammed during Maroh and April. The pH and moisture content exhibited a poor correlation with the fungal succession. <i>Deuteromycetes</i> along with few <i>Phycomycetes</i> in the beginning, <i>Deuteromycetes</i> with few <i>Ascomycetes</i> in the second phase and <i>Deuteromycetes</i> along with <i>Mycelia sterilia</i> in the third phase were isolated.

scholarly journals How COVID-19 Quarantine(s) Can Generate Poverty?

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-338
Author(s):  
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Multidimensional Poverty ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Purchasing Power ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Graphical Modeling ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Government

This research paper attempts to show visually how the COVID-19 quarantines can generate massive unemployment, constant expansion of inflation, reduction of the purchasing power parity, and poverty expansion from a multidimensional perspective. This visualization is only possible by creating a new multivariate graphical modeling called “The Multidimensional Poverty Kaleidoscope Graph.” The multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph is not intended to use a forecasting model in any case. However, its application is not limited to the study of a particular group of countries. It is not constrained by issues about the region or countries interested in applying the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. There are four primary phases in the implementation of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. The first phase is the design of the input-output-table. The second phase is divided into two sections of analysis: the first section of analysis assumes that the COVID-19 quarantine time framework growth rate (Y = Independent variable) impacts directly on our four variables in analysis, such as the inflation growth rate (X1); the unemployment growth rate (X2); purchasing power parity growth rate (X3); the government budget deficit (X4). In the second section of the analysis, the last past four variables in analysis became our dependent variables and directly affected the poverty growth rate (Z). The third phase is the construction of the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph. Finally, the multidimensional poverty kaleidoscope graph was applied to three countries, such as the U.S., Malaysia, and Guatemala.

Peru before the Election for the Constituent Assembly: Ten Years of Military Rule and The Quest for Social Justice

1978 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 288-306
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Gorman
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
The Road ◽  
Constituent Assembly ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Political Resources ◽  
Popular Classes ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Revolution

ELECTIONS FOR A CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ARE SCHEDULED TO TAKE place in Peru in 1978. In view of this event and of the changes which it might bring about, it would be useful to examine the tenyear record of the military revolutionary government in that country.If the road to hell truly is paved with good intentions, it is of little solace to those who must walk it. So it is that after nearly a decade of revolution in Peru we can no longer concern ourselves with ferreting out the motives of the military officers who have led it, but must turn instead to an assessment of the damage that has been done. Peru's Revolutionary Government of the Armed Forces has attracted considerable attention and even admiration within and without Latin America since its inception through a bloodless coup on 3 October 1968. In subsequent years the military junta, in which the Army dominates over the Air Force and Navy, has passed through three perceptible stages. The first corresponded to the presidency of General Juan Velasco Alvarado, architect of the coup and leader of the revolution until he was ousted in August 1975. His tenure, now referred to officially as the ‘First Phase’ of the revolution, was responsible for dramatic and far-reaching reforms which eventually over-taxed the financial and political resources of his government and forced him from office. The so-called ‘Second Phase’ of the revolution began with Velasco's replacement by his more conservative Prime Minister, General Francisco Morales Bermddez. Attention turned to consolidating the gains of the revolution during this period but the inability of the government to shore up the economy and rationalize the programmes of the Velasco era resulted in the imposition ofa severe austerity programme in July 1976. Violent political upheavals within the popular classes in July, and the backlash of the conservative factions within the military, caused a purge of most of the remaining liberal officers in the government. It is fair to speak of a ‘Third Phase’ of the revolution since the latter part of 1976 in which President Morales has been pressured into systematically dismantling many of the popular reforms of the Velasco era. Official announcements in 1977 clarified the military's intention to withdraw from direct management of the state over the next two to three years. Thus, it is appropriate now to begin assessment of the Institutional Revolution of the Armed Forces and its legacy for Peru.

scholarly journals Estimate of COVID-19 case prevalence in India based on surveillance data of patients with severe acute respiratory illness

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padmanaban Venkatesan
Keyword(s):  
Medical Research ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Acute Respiratory Illness ◽  
Conservative Estimate ◽  
Indian Council ◽  
True Prevalence ◽  
Severe Respiratory Illness ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Illness

AbstractIn absence of extensive testing for SARS-CoV-2, true prevalence of COVID-19 cases in India remain unknown. In this study, a conservative estimate of prevalence of COVID-19 is calculated based on the age wise COVID-19 positivity rate among patients with severe respiratory illness as reported by Indian Council of Medical Research. Calculations in the study estimates a cumulative number of 17151 COVID-19 positive cases by the end of April 2, 2020.

High Flow Oxygen Therapy and the Pressure to Feed Infants With Acute Respiratory Illness

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1006-1010
Author(s):  
Jennifer Raminick ◽  
Hema Desai
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Clinical Practice Guidelines ◽  
Practice Guidelines ◽  
Oxygen Therapy ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Oral Feeding ◽  
Respiratory Support ◽  
Acute Respiratory Illness ◽  
High Flow Oxygen

Purpose Infants hospitalized for an acute respiratory illness often require the use of noninvasive respiratory support during the initial stage to improve their breathing. High flow oxygen therapy (HFOT) is becoming a more popular means of noninvasive respiratory support, often used to treat respiratory syncytial virus/bronchiolitis. These infants present with tachypnea and coughing, resulting in difficulties in coordinating sucking and swallowing. However, they are often allowed to feed orally despite having high respiratory rate, increased work of breathing and on HFOT, placing them at risk for aspiration. Feeding therapists who work with these infants have raised concerns that HFOT creates an additional risk factor for swallowing dysfunction, especially with infants who have compromised airways or other comorbidities. There is emerging literature concluding changes in pharyngeal pressures with HFOT, as well as aspiration in preterm neonates who are on nasal continuous positive airway pressure. However, there is no existing research exploring the effect of HFOT on swallowing in infants with acute respiratory illness. This discussion will present findings from literature on HFOT, oral feeding in the acutely ill infant population, and present clinical practice guidelines for safe feeding during critical care admission for acute respiratory illness. Conclusion Guidelines for safety of oral feeds for infants with acute respiratory illness on HFOT do not exist. However, providers and parents continue to want to provide oral feeds despite clinical signs of respiratory distress and coughing. To address this challenge, we initiated a process change to use clinical bedside evaluation and a “cross-systems approach” to provide recommendations for safer oral feeds while on HFOT as the infant is recovering from illness. Use of standardized feeding evaluation and protocol have improved consistency of practice within our department. However, further research is still necessary to develop clinical practice guidelines for safe oral feeding for infants on HFOT.

Reasons for the Onset of the Uniat Clergy’s Movement Towards Orthodoxy in the Russian Empire in the Beginning of the 19th Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 293-317
Author(s):  
Protopriest Alexander Romanchuk
Keyword(s):  
19Th Century ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Catholic Church ◽  
Russian Empire ◽  
Latin Church ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Russian Empire ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Church Service ◽  
The 19Th Century

The article studies the system of pre-conditions that caused the onset of the uniat clergy’s movement towards Orthodoxy in the Russian Empire in the beginning of the 19th century. The author comes to the conclusion that the tendency of the uniat clergy going back to Orthodoxy was the result of certain historic conditions, such as: 1) constant changes in the government policy during the reign of Emperor Pavel I and Emperor Alexander I; 2) increasing latinization of the uniat church service after 1797 and Latin proselytism that were the result of the distrust of the uniats on the part of Roman curia and representatives of Polish Catholic Church of Latin church service; 3) ecclesiastical contradictions made at the Brest Church Union conclusion; 4) division of the uniat clergy into discordant groups and the increase of their opposition to each other on the issue of latinization in the first decades of the 19th century. The combination of those conditions was a unique phenomenon that never repeated itself anywhere.

PENERAPAN MODEL QUANTUM LEARNING UNTUK MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR AUTOCAD SISWA KELAS X TEKNIK PEMESINAN SMK NEGERI 1 STABAT

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Hasan Saragih
Keyword(s):  
Positive Response ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
First Grade ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
The Third ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Quantum Learning

This classroom research was conducted on the autocad instructions to the first grade of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat aiming at : (1) improving the student’ archievementon autocad instructional to the student of mechinary architecture class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat, (2) applying Quantum Learning Model to the students of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat, arising the positive response to autocad subject by applying Quantum Learning Model of the students of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat. The result shows that (1) by applying quantum learning model, the students’ achievement improves significantly. The improvement ofthe achievement of the 34 students is very satisfactory; on the first phase, 27 students passed (70.59%), 10 students failed (29.41%). On the second phase 27 students (79.41%) passed and 7 students (20.59%) failed. On the third phase 30 students (88.24%) passed and 4 students (11.76%) failed. The application of quantum learning model in SMK Negeri 1 Stabat proved satisfying. This was visible from the activeness of the students from phase 1 to 3. The activeness average of the students was 74.31% on phase 1,81.35% on phase 2, and 83.63% on phase 3. (3) The application of the quantum learning model on teaching autocad was very positively welcome by the students of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat. On phase 1 the improvement was 81.53% . It improved to 86.15% on phase 3. Therefore, The improvement ofstudent’ response can be categorized good.

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