Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

This paper provides an overview of bioclimatic models applied to lichen species, supporting their potential use in this context as indicators of climate change risk. First, it provides a brief summary of climate change risk, pointing to the relevance of lichens as a topic area. Second, it reviews the past use of lichen bioclimatic models, applied for a range of purposes with respect to baseline climate, and the application of data sources, statistical methods, model extents and resolution and choice of predictor variables. Third, it explores additional challenges to the use of lichen bioclimatic models, including: 1. The assumption of climatically controlled lichen distributions, 2. The projection to climate change scenarios, and 3. The issue of nonanalogue climates and model transferability. Fourth, the paper provides a reminder that bioclimatic models estimate change in the extent or range of a species suitable climate space, and that an outcome will be determined by vulnerability responses, including potential for migration, adaptation, and acclimation, within the context of landscape habitat quality. The degree of exposure to climate change, estimated using bioclimatic models, can help to inform an understanding of whether vulnerability responses are sufficient for species resilience. Fifth, the paper draws conclusions based on its overview, highlighting the relevance of bioclimatic models to conservation, support received from observational data, and pointing the way towards mechanistic approaches that align with field-scale climate change experiments.

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Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alizée Chemison ◽

Gilles Ramstein ◽

Adrian M. Tompkins ◽

Dimitri Defrance ◽

Guigone Camus ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Malaria Transmission ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Change Risk ◽

System A ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

The Impact

AbstractStudies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

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Vulnerability of Temperate Fruit Production to Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Measures: A Review

Agricultural Reviews ◽

10.18805/ag.r-2016 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rimpika . ◽

D.P. Sharma ◽

Ajender .

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Rapid Change ◽

Fruit Production ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Fruit Crops ◽

The Past ◽

The Mean

Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). As per United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), change of climate is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time period. The earth’s climate, although relatively stable over the past 10,000 years or so, has always been changing, mainly due to natural causes such as volcanic activity. However, since the second half of 20th century more rapid change has taken place, which has been attributed mainly due to human activities. Plausible climate change scenarios include higher temperatures, changes in precipitation, and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Temperate region of the country, comprising mainly north-west and north east Himalayan region has witnesses a dramatic change in climate over the past 30 years, where adverse effect of climate change on temperate fruit production has been noticed. The carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulpherdioxide, etc. form greenhouse gas (GHG) pools in the atmosphere. Increase in the concentration of these gases is responsible for global climate change. According to Inter Governmental Panel on climate Change (IPCC), the climate is defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description of the weather in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over periods of several decades (typically three decades as defined by Meteorological Organization). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind, but in a wider sense the climate is the description of the state of the climate system. Global climate change and increasing climatic variability are recently considered a huge concern worldwide due to enormous emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and its more apparent effect on fruit crops because of its perennial nature. The changed climatic parameters affect the crop physiology, biochemistry, floral biology, biotic stresses like disease pest incidence, etc. and ultimately resulted to the reduction of yield and quality of fruit crops. So, it is big challenge to the scientists of the world. Mitigation is the most important measures to reduce the devastating effect of climate change.

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Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-19410-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

F. Zanatta ◽

R. Engler ◽

F. Collart ◽

O. Broennimann ◽

R. G. Mateo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Species Dispersal ◽

High Dispersal ◽

Mechanistic Approach ◽

Distribution Ranges ◽

Suitable Climate ◽

Suitable Habitats

Abstract The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

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Predicting Present and Future Suitable Climate Spaces (Potential Distributions) for an Armillaria Root Disease Pathogen (Armillaria solidipes) and Its Host, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), Under Changing Climates

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change ◽

10.3389/ffgc.2021.740994 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

Author(s):

Mee-Sook Kim ◽

John W. Hanna ◽

Jane E. Stewart ◽

Marcus V. Warwell ◽

Geral I. McDonald ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

Pseudotsuga Menziesii ◽

Root Disease ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Suitable Climate ◽

Armillaria Root Disease ◽

Climate Space ◽

Forest Managers

Climate change and associated disturbances are expected to exacerbate forest root diseases because of altered distributions of existing and emerging forest pathogens and predisposition of trees due to climatic maladaptation and other disturbances. Predictions of suitable climate space (potential geographic distribution) for forest pathogens and host trees under contemporary and future climate scenarios will guide the selection of appropriate management practices by forest managers to minimize adverse impacts of forest disease within forest ecosystems. A native pathogen (Armillaria solidipes) that causes Armillaria root disease of conifers in North America is used to demonstrate bioclimatic models (maps) that predict suitable climate space for both pathogen and a primary host (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Douglas-fir) under contemporary and future climate scenarios. Armillaria root disease caused by A. solidipes is a primary cause of lost productivity and reduced carbon sequestration in coniferous forests of North America, and its impact is expected to increase under climate change due to tree maladaptation. Contemporary prediction models of suitable climate space were produced using Maximum Entropy algorithms that integrate climatic data with 382 georeferenced occurrence locations for DNA sequence-confirmed A. solidipes. A similar approach was used for visually identified P. menziesii from 11,826 georeferenced locations to predict its climatic requirements. From the contemporary models, data were extrapolated through future climate scenarios to forecast changes in geographic areas where native A. solidipes and P. menziesii will be climatically adapted. Armillaria root disease is expected to increase in geographic areas where predictions suggest A. solidipes is well adapted and P. menziesii is maladapted within its current range. By predicting areas at risk for Armillaria root disease, forest managers can deploy suitable strategies to reduce damage from the disease.

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Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections

Water ◽

10.3390/w11020312 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 312 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Minsung Kwon ◽

Jang Hyun Sung

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Exceedance Probability ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Baseline Climate

The standardized precipitation index (SPI)—a meteorological drought index—uses various reference precipitation periods. Generally, drought projections using future climate change scenarios compare reference SPIs between baseline and future climates. Here, future drought was projected based on reference precipitation under the baseline climate to quantitatively compare changes in the frequency and severity of future drought. High-resolution climate change scenarios were produced using HadGEM2-AO General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios for Korean weather stations. Baseline and future 3-month cumulative precipitation data were fitted to gamma distribution; results showed that precipitation of future climate is more than the precipitation of the baseline climate. When future precipitation was set as that of the baseline climate instead of the future climate, results indicated that drought intensity and frequency will decrease because the non-exceedance probability for the same precipitation is larger in the baseline climate than in future climate. However, due to increases in regional precipitation variability over time, some regions with opposite trends were also identified. Therefore, it is necessary to understand baseline and future climates in a region to better design resilience strategies and mechanisms that can help cope with future drought.

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Water resources of Ukraine in the XXI century under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5)

Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal ◽

10.31481/uhmj.17.2016.13 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 114-122

Author(s):

N.S. Loboda ◽

Y.V. Bozhok

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Past ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Calculation Results ◽

Grid Nodes

Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. 84 points (grid nodes) uniformly distributed on the territory of Ukraine were studied. The calculations were made based on the model "climate-runoff", developed in Odessa State Environmental University. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050). The major trends in water resources of Ukraine were established. It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century reducing of water resources is expected on the plain territory of Ukraine (70% in the southeast). In the geographical zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians, especially in the Tisa river basin, its stability or growth is possible. Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen.

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Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change Scenarios: A Review

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli9090139 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (9) ◽

pp. 139

Author(s):

Susana C. Pereira ◽

David Carvalho ◽

Alfredo Rocha

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Climate Modeling ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Extremes ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The Past ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

This paper presents the results of a systematic review of temperature and precipitation extremes over the Iberian Peninsula, focusing on observed changes in temperature and precipitation during the past years and what are the projected changes by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this review is to assess the current literature about extreme events and their change under global warming. Observational and climate modeling studies from the past decade were considered in this review. Based on observational evidence and in climate modeling experiments, mean and maximum temperatures are projected to increase about 2 °C around the mid-century and up to 4 °C by the end of the century. The more pronounced warming is expected in summer for the central-south region of IP, with temperatures reaching 6 °C to 8 °C around 2100. Days with maximum temperature exceeding 30 °C and 40 °C will become more common (20 to 50 days/year), and the heatwaves will be 7 to 10 times more frequent. Significative reduction in events related to cold extremes. The climate change signal for precipitation in IP shows a considerable decline in precipitation (10–15%) for all seasons except winter. It is predicted that heavy precipitation will increase by 7% to 15%. Extreme precipitation will increase slightly (5%) by mid-century, then decline to 0% by 2100. Significant reduction in wet days (40% to 60%) followed by a dryness trend more pronounced by the end of the century.

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An atomic-resolution microscope study of Al contracts on GaAs

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100145005 ◽

1986 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

pp. 726-727

Author(s):

Z. Liliental-Weber ◽

C. Nelson ◽

R. Ludeke ◽

R. Gronsky ◽

J. Washburn

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

Schottky Contacts ◽

Detailed Knowledge ◽

The Past ◽

Semiconductor Interfaces ◽

Deposited Metal ◽

Microwave Applications ◽

Free Interfaces ◽

Potential Use

The properties of metal/semiconductor interfaces have received considerable attention over the past few years, and the Al/GaAs system is of special interest because of its potential use in high-speed logic integrated optics, and microwave applications. For such materials a detailed knowledge of the geometric and electronic structure of the interface is fundamental to an understanding of the electrical properties of the contact. It is well known that the properties of Schottky contacts are established within a few atomic layers of the deposited metal. Therefore surface contamination can play a significant role. A method for fabricating contamination-free interfaces is absolutely necessary for reproducible properties, and molecularbeam epitaxy (MBE) offers such advantages for in-situ metal deposition under UHV conditions

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