scholarly journals Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change Scenarios: A Review

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Susana C. Pereira ◽  
David Carvalho ◽  
Alfredo Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This paper presents the results of a systematic review of temperature and precipitation extremes over the Iberian Peninsula, focusing on observed changes in temperature and precipitation during the past years and what are the projected changes by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this review is to assess the current literature about extreme events and their change under global warming. Observational and climate modeling studies from the past decade were considered in this review. Based on observational evidence and in climate modeling experiments, mean and maximum temperatures are projected to increase about 2 °C around the mid-century and up to 4 °C by the end of the century. The more pronounced warming is expected in summer for the central-south region of IP, with temperatures reaching 6 °C to 8 °C around 2100. Days with maximum temperature exceeding 30 °C and 40 °C will become more common (20 to 50 days/year), and the heatwaves will be 7 to 10 times more frequent. Significative reduction in events related to cold extremes. The climate change signal for precipitation in IP shows a considerable decline in precipitation (10–15%) for all seasons except winter. It is predicted that heavy precipitation will increase by 7% to 15%. Extreme precipitation will increase slightly (5%) by mid-century, then decline to 0% by 2100. Significant reduction in wet days (40% to 60%) followed by a dryness trend more pronounced by the end of the century.

scholarly journals Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3275-3291 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ruiz-Ramos ◽  
E. Sánchez ◽  
C. Gallardo ◽  
M. I. Mínguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract. Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

scholarly journals Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change*

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 2421-2442 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. Pierce ◽  
Daniel R. Cayan ◽  
Edwin P. Maurer ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Katherine C. Hegewisch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract Global climate model (GCM) output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for climate change impact studies. Three existing bias correction methods, and a new one developed here, are applied to daily maximum temperature and precipitation from 21 GCMs to investigate how different methods alter the climate change signal of the GCM. The quantile mapping (QM) and cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) bias correction methods can significantly alter the GCM’s mean climate change signal, with differences of up to 2°C and 30% points for monthly mean temperature and precipitation, respectively. Equidistant quantile matching (EDCDFm) bias correction preserves GCM changes in mean daily maximum temperature but not precipitation. An extension to EDCDFm termed PresRat is introduced, which generally preserves the GCM changes in mean precipitation. Another problem is that GCMs can have difficulty simulating variance as a function of frequency. To address this, a frequency-dependent bias correction method is introduced that is twice as effective as standard bias correction in reducing errors in the models’ simulation of variance as a function of frequency, and it does so without making any locations worse, unlike standard bias correction. Last, a preconditioning technique is introduced that improves the simulation of the annual cycle while still allowing the bias correction to take account of an entire season’s values at once.

scholarly journals Increase of Extreme Drought over Ethiopia under Climate Warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asaminew Teshome ◽  
Jie Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Annual Total

Recurrent extreme drought and flood in Ethiopia lead to more economic loss. This study examines change and trends of 21 climate extremes of temperature and precipitation over Ethiopia by using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on the records of observed meteorological data and the future projected from the CMIP5 model under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results of the seasonal standardized rainfall anomaly and EOF analysis show a decreasing rainfall in JJAS season and significant variability in the FMAM season. The first mode of EOF in FMAM shows that 49.6% was mostly negative with a high amount of variability. The observed precipitation extreme of annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), consecutive wet days (CWD), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) show a decreasing trend, and consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend. Additionally, temperature extremes like tropical nights (TR20) and daily maximum and minimum temperatures show a significantly increasing trend. The projected precipitation extremes of CWD, PRCPTOT, very wet day annual total (R95p), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) show a decreasing trend. CDD shows longer periods of dryness and a substantial increase which is conducive to the increase of drought. The projected temperature extremes of the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), daily maximum temperature (TXx) and daily minimum temperature (TNx), summer days (SU25), and tropical nights (TR20) show an increasing trend, while the diurnal temperature range shows a decreasing trend. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are likely to have significant negative impacts on various socioeconomic activities over Ethiopia. These results highlight the need for planning and developing effective adaptation strategies for disaster prevention.

scholarly journals Water resources of Ukraine in the XXI century under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5)

2017 ◽  
pp. 114-122
Author(s):  
N.S. Loboda ◽  
Y.V. Bozhok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Calculation Results ◽  
Grid Nodes

Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) were used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. 84 points (grid nodes) uniformly distributed on the territory of Ukraine were studied. The calculations were made based on the model "climate-runoff", developed in Odessa State Environmental University. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050). The major trends in water resources of Ukraine were established. It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century reducing of water resources is expected on the plain territory of Ukraine (70% in the southeast). In the geographical zone of the Ukrainian Carpathians, especially in the Tisa river basin, its stability or growth is possible. Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgílio A. Bento ◽  
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Rita M. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spring Maximum

AbstractThe impact of climate change on wheat and barley yields in two regions of the Iberian Peninsula is here examined. Regression models are developed by using EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations, forced by ERA-Interim, with monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures and monthly accumulated precipitation as predictors. Additionally, RCM simulations forced by different global climate models for the historical period (1972–2000) and mid-of-century (2042–2070; under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are analysed. Results point to different regional responses of wheat and barley. In the southernmost regions, results indicate that the main yield driver is spring maximum temperature, while further north a larger dependence on spring precipitation and early winter maximum temperature is observed. Climate change seems to induce severe yield losses in the southern region, mainly due to an increase in spring maximum temperature. On the contrary, a yield increase is projected in the northern regions, with the main driver being early winter warming that stimulates earlier growth. These results warn on the need to implement sustainable agriculture policies, and on the necessity of regional adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Joint Occurrence of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events over Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 2148-2162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bárbara Tencer ◽  
Andrew Weaver ◽  
Francis Zwiers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Joint Occurrence

AbstractThe occurrence of individual extremes such as temperature and precipitation extremes can have a great impact on the environment. Agriculture, energy demands, and human health, among other activities, can be affected by extremely high or low temperatures and by extremely dry or wet conditions. The simultaneous or proximate occurrence of both types of extremes could lead to even more profound consequences, however. For example, a dry period can have more negative consequences on agriculture if it is concomitant with or followed by a period of extremely high temperatures. This study analyzes the joint occurrence of very wet conditions and high/low temperature events at stations in Canada. More than one-half of the stations showed a significant positive relationship at the daily time scale between warm nights (daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile) or warm days (daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile) and heavy-precipitation events (daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile), with the greater frequencies found for the east and southwest coasts during autumn and winter. Cold days (daily maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) occur together with intense precipitation more frequently during spring and summer. Simulations by regional climate models show good agreement with observations in the seasonal and spatial variability of the joint distribution, especially when an ensemble of simulations was used.

scholarly journals Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Superparameterized CAM in Response to Warmer SSTs

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (24) ◽  
pp. 9827-9845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhou ◽  
Marat F. Khairoutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Cold Extremes

Subdaily temperature and precipitation extremes in response to warmer SSTs are investigated on a global scale using the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), in which a cloud-resolving model is embedded in each CAM grid column to simulate convection explicitly. Two 10-yr simulations have been performed using present climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and perturbed SST climatology derived from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with the conventional CAM, SP-CAM simulates colder temperatures and more realistic intensity distribution of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. The temperature and precipitation extremes have been defined by the 99th percentile of the 3-hourly data. For temperature, the changes in the warm and cold extremes are generally consistent between CAM and SP-CAM, with larger changes in warm extremes at low latitudes and larger changes in cold extremes at mid-to-high latitudes. For precipitation, CAM predicts a uniform increase of frequency of precipitation extremes regardless of the rain rate, while SP-CAM predicts a monotonic increase of frequency with increasing rain rate and larger change of intensity for heavier precipitation. The changes in 3-hourly and daily temperature extremes are found to be similar; however, the 3-hourly precipitation extremes have a significantly larger change than daily extremes. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is found to be a relatively good predictor of zonally averaged changes in precipitation extremes over midlatitudes but not as good over the tropics and subtropics. The changes in precipitable water and large-scale vertical velocity are equally important to explain the changes in precipitation extremes.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽  
Shree Chandra Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

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