scholarly journals Forecasting and Analysis Tools for Regional Industries’ Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Valeriy Semenychev ◽  
Anastasiya Korobetskaya
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
General Idea ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Seasonal Component ◽  
Modeling Analysis ◽  
Splitting Time ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The article is devoted to the author’s approach and tools for regional industries’ modeling, analysis and forecasting, following the general idea of splitting time series into four components: trend, cycles, seasonal component, and residuals. However, the authors introduce new approaches, models, metrics, and identification algorithms, and the components’ interaction structures, having included the analysis of 12 industries in 82 regions of Russia. The models and forecast accuracy were tested on 3–12 month forecasts, thus proving their high accuracy. Therefore, the article proposes not only new systematic econometric tools but a methodology for decision making, developed to provide stable and adequate characteristics of complex non-linear evolutionary dynamics of Russian regions.

Financial Systems and economic Development in the Russian Regions: A Comparative Analysis

2015 ◽  
pp. 94-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Krinichansky
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Growth Mechanisms ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The paper identifies and assesses the closeness of the connection between incremental indicators of the financial development in the regions of Russia with the incremental regional GDP and the investment in fixed capital. It is shown that the positioning of the region as an independent participant of public debt market matters: the regional GDP and investment in fixed capital grow more rapidly in the regions which are regularly borrowing on the sub-federal bonds market. The paper also demonstrates that the poorly developed financial system in some regions have caused the imperfection of the growth mechanisms since the economy is not able to use the financial system’s functions.

Atlas of economic complexity, Russian regional pages

2018 ◽  
pp. 71-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. L. Lyubimov ◽  
M. V. Lysyuk ◽  
M. A. Gvozdeva
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
Diversification Strategies ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regions Of Russia

Well-established results indicate that export diversification might be a better growth strategy for an emerging economy as long as its GDP per capita level is smaller than an empirically defined threshold. As average incomes in Russian regions are likely to be far below the threshold, it might be important to estimate their diversification potential. The paper discusses the Atlas of economic complexity for Russian regions created to visualize regional export baskets, to estimate their complexity and evaluate regional export potential. The paper’s results are consistent with previous findings: the complexity of export is substantially higher and diversification potential is larger in western and central regions of Russia. Their export potential might become larger if western and central regions, first, try to join global value added chains and second, cooperate and develop joint diversification strategies. Northern and eastern regions are by contrast much less complex and their diversification potential is small.

Impact of regulatory framework rigidity on poverty in the regions of Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 62-79
Author(s):  
P. N. Pavlov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Federal Regulations ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Poverty Dynamics ◽  
Regulatory Burden ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The paper analyzes the impact of the federal regulatory burden on poverty dynamics in Russia. The paper provides regional level indices of the federal regulatory burden on the economy in 2008—2018 which take into account sectoral structure of regions’ output and the level of regulatory rigidity of federal regulations governing certain types of economic activity. Estimates of empirical specifications of poverty theoretical model with the inclusion of macroeconomic and institutional factors shows that limiting the scope of the rulemaking activity of government bodies and weakening of new regulations rigidity contributes to a statistically significant reduction in the level of poverty in Russian regions. Cancellation of 10% of accumulated federal level requirements through the “regulatory guillotine” administrative reform may take out of poverty about 1.1—1.4 million people.

Initiative budgeting: experience of Russian regions

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-122
Author(s):  
N. A. Lysova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Participatory Budgeting ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Russian Model

Experience of participatory budgeting in municipalities of Russian regions is reviewed in the paper. Forms of participation of the population in decision-making, as well as in the selection, realization and co-financing of public projects have been investigated. The analysis of the practices made it possible to identify the features and prospects of the Russian model of initiative budgeting.

Revealing of the specificity of mortgage housing lending based on the results of clustering of regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 2679-2697
Author(s):  
Lyudmila E. ROMANOVA ◽  
Anna L. SABININA ◽  
Andrei I. CHUKANOV ◽  
Dar’ya M. KORSHUNOVA
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Effective Algorithm ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Partitioning Around Medoids ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regions Of Russia

Subject. This article deals with the particularities of the development of housing mortgage lending in the regions of Russia. Objectives. The article aims to substantiate the need for clustering of territorial entities by level of development of mortgage housing lending in Russia and test the most effective algorithm for mortgage clustering of regions. Methods. For the study, we used a systems approach, including scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, and statistical methods of data analysis. The algorithm k-medoids – Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) was also used. Results. Based on the results of the study of regional statistics of the Russian Federation, the article reveals a significant asymmetry in the values of key socioeconomic indices that determine the level and dynamics of housing mortgages in the regions. This necessitates the clustering of territorial entities according to the level of development of mortgage housing lending in the country. To take into account the impact of various local conditions in assessing the prospects for the development of regional housing mortgages, the article proposes an indicator, namely, the integral regional mortgage affordability index. On its basis, in accordance with the selected clustering procedure, the article identifies five mortgage clusters in Russia and identifies their representative regions. Conclusions. Based on the analysis of the specificity of the development of regional mortgages in the Tula Oblast, taking into account the implementation of the target State programme, the article concludes that it is necessary to improve the mechanisms for financing regional mortgage programmes and justifies the need to develop differentiated programmes for the development of housing mortgages in groups of Russian regions.

Border Trade between Regions of Russia and Provinces of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 103-116
Author(s):  
Natalya S. Epifanova ◽  
Vladimir N. Akulinin
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Structural Development ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The purpose of this article is to study border trade in the regions of Russia and the provinces of China. It is shown that in recent years there have been negative trends in border trade, leading to its reduction. Therefore, Russian regions bordering with China should transform into separate objects of regional policy, while also forming a legislative framework for border interaction in all its main spheres: trade, humanitarian cooperation, science and education, and others. In border cooperation with China, special emphasis should be placed on cooperation in the innovation sphere, as well as on improving the quality of exported goods and services and promoting infrastructure projects. Border trade between the regions of Russia and China is built mainly on trade and export of labour resources from China to Russia, as well as China’s receipt of additional sales channels for the confidently growing sales markets for consumer goods and sources of raw materials and primary products. The interaction of Russian regions with neighbouring provinces on the border with China not only preserves the raw material orientation of these regions, but also hinders the development and strengthening of the manufacturing industry in the structure of their regional economies, since border interaction for Russian regions immobilizes those stages of value-added production observed in the very first stages. In general, for the Chinese provinces there is a similar problem associated with such exports to border regions that have common borders with Russia, which does not contribute to the diversification and structural development of the regional economies of the Chinese provinces. That is why building an effective mechanism for border interaction between Russia and China is a strategically important issue for both countries.

scholarly journals INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

Federalism ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 5-19
Author(s):  
M. A. Nikonova
Keyword(s):  
Innovative Activity ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Private Business ◽  
Domestic Industry ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Knowledge Based Economy ◽  
Scientific Potential ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The transition to a market economy in the 1990s led to a significant reduction in the number of R&D organizations, especially R&D departments and survey organizations, as well as in the number of R&D personnel and especially researchers. This was largely due to the outflow of competitive personnel, technology and capital from the country. These changes, which led to a decrease in the level of scientific potential of the country, the effectiveness of innovation, the aggravation of the problem of continuity in science have become a factor limiting the transition to innovative development of the Russian economy. An additional factor complicating the transition to a knowledge-based economy today is the low demand of domestic industry for innovations developed in Russia, an unsatisfactory investment climate for attracting private business to R&D. The article on the basis of the analysis of the relevant indicators identified the main problems that reduce the innovative activity of the regions of Russia, and proposed measures to overcome them.

scholarly journals OPPORTUNITIES FOR CREATING AN INTERACTIVE ATLAS “INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE OF REGIONS OF RUSSIA”

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirill S. Teslenok ◽  
◽  
Sergej A. Teslenok ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Interactive Maps ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The cartographic specifics of interactive maps and atlases, as well as the possibilities for the development and practical implementation of the interactive atlas “Innovations in Agriculture of the Russian Regions” are considered.

On the Nature of the Nonexistence of Ordinal Relationships between Measures of the Accuracy and Value of Probability Forecasts : An Example

1977 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1015-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allan H. Murphy ◽  
Jack C. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Existence And Nonexistence ◽  
Fruit Orchard ◽  
Probability Forecasts

Abstract t has been shown previously that ordinal relationships between measures of the accuracy and value ofprobability forecasts do not exist, in general, in N-state (N > 2) situations. Some implications of this resultare illustrated by comparing the accuracy and value of such forecasts in a realistic decision-making situation-a three-action, three-state situation involving the protection of a fruit orchard against frosts and freezes.Geometrical interpretations of the forecasts and measures are described and then used to investigate the existence of ordinal relationships in this so-called fruit-frost situation. The results indicate, as expected, thatan increase in forecast accuracy can lead to a decrease in forecast value. Some generalizations and speculations related to the existence and nonexistence of such ordinal relationships are presented.

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