scholarly journals Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Denis A. Demidko ◽  
Svetlana M. Sultson ◽  
Pavel V. Mikhaylov ◽  
Sergey V. Verkhovets
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
West Siberian Plain ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
The West ◽  
Climate Oscillations ◽  
Atmospheric Processes

The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occurrence. We tried to determine what weather conditions precede B. piniaria outbreaks in the southeast of the West Siberian Plain and what climate oscillations cause them. Due to the insufficient duration and incompleteness of documented observations on outbreaks, we used the history of pine looper outbreaks reconstructed using dendrochronological data. Using logistic regression, we found that the factor influencing an outbreak the most is the weather four years before it. A combination of warm spring, dry summer, and cool autumn triggers population growth. Summer weather two years before an outbreak is also critical: humidity higher than the average annual value in summer is favorable for the pine looper. The logistic regression model predicted six out of seven outbreaks that occurred during the period for which weather data are available. We discovered a link between outbreaks and climatic oscillations (mainly for the North Atlantic oscillation, Pacific/North America index, East Atlantic/Western Russia, West Pacific, and Scandinavian patterns). However, outbreak predictions based on the teleconnection patterns turned out to be unreliable. We believe that the complexity of the interaction between large-scale atmospheric processes makes the direct influence of individual oscillations on weather conditions relatively small. Furthermore, climate changes in recent decades modulated atmospheric processes changing the pattern predicting pine looper outbreaks: Autumn became warmer four years before an outbreak, and summer two years before became drier.

scholarly journals The effect of soil properties and climate on phytocoenoses biodiversity in the forest-steppe zone of West Siberia

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 00126
Author(s):  
Alexander I. Syso ◽  
Andrey Y. Korolyuk ◽  
Boris A. Smolentsev
Keyword(s):  
Soil Properties ◽  
Chemical Element ◽  
Salt Content ◽  
West Siberia ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Steppe Zone ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
West Siberian Plain ◽  
The West ◽  
Aboveground Phytomass

The effect of weather conditions and such soil properties as pH, salt content, as well as different forms of macroand trace elements, on phytocoenoses biodiversity and chemical element contents in the aboveground phytomass was investigated in the forest-steppe zone of the West Siberian plain. Soil chemical element composition and salinity content were found to affect the phytomass content of N, P, K, Na, Ca, Mg, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu, Sr, Li.

(A review) N. I. Makunina. The forest-steppe vegetation of the West Siberian plain and the Altai-Sayan mountain region. Novosibirsk: Academic publishing house “Geo”, 2016. 183 p.

2017 ◽  
pp. 116-118
Author(s):  
E. A. Volkova
Keyword(s):  
Plant Communities ◽  
Publishing House ◽  
Mountain Region ◽  
Academic Publishing ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
West Siberian Plain ◽  
The West ◽  
Steppe Vegetation ◽  
Floristic Classification ◽  
Sayan Mountain

The monograph presents an overview of the forest-steppe vegetation of the West Siberian Plain and the Altai-Sayan mountain region. The questions of bioclimatic zonation of the Altai-Sayan mountain region are discussed. The biodiversity of foreststeppe is characterized, the floristic classification is performed, the scheme of eco-phytocoenotic classification is given, the basic types of plant communities are described in comparative terms. The diversity of forest-steppe landscapes is revealed, the structure of their vegetation is analyzed. The phytogeographical division of forest-steppe is worked out.

(A review) N. I. Makunina. The forest-steppe vegetation of the West Siberian plain and the Altai-Sayan mountain region. Novosibirsk: Academic publishing house “Geo”, 2016. 183 p.

2017 ◽  
pp. 114-116
Author(s):  
B. M. Mirkin ◽  
L. G. Naumova
Keyword(s):  
Plant Communities ◽  
Publishing House ◽  
Mountain Region ◽  
Academic Publishing ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
West Siberian Plain ◽  
The West ◽  
Steppe Vegetation ◽  
Floristic Classification ◽  
Sayan Mountain

The monograph presents an overview of the forest-steppe vegetation of the West Siberian Plain and the Altai-Sayan mountain region. The questions of bioclimatic zonation of the Altai-Sayan mountain region are discussed. The biodiversity of foreststeppe is characterized, the floristic classification is performed, the scheme of eco-phytocoenotic classification is given, the basic types of plant communities are described in comparative terms. The diversity of forest-steppe landscapes is revealed, the structure of their vegetation is analyzed. The phytogeographical division of forest-steppe is worked out.

scholarly journals Prediction of nitrate nitrogen content in soil using machine learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 91-100
Author(s):  
V. K. Kalichkin ◽  
T. A. Luzhnykh ◽  
V. S. Riksen ◽  
N. V. Vasilyeva ◽  
V. A. Shpak
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Nitrogen Content ◽  
Nitrate Nitrogen ◽  
Soil Layer ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Posteriori Probability ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
Trust Network ◽  
A Posteriori Probability

The possibilities and feasibility of using the Bayesian network of trust and logistic regression to predict the content of nitrate nitrogen in the 0-40 cm soil layer before sowing have been investigated. Data from long-term multifactor field experience at the Siberian Research Institute of Farming and Agricultural Chemization of SFSCA RAS for 2013-2018 were used to train the models. The experiment was established on leached chernozem in the central forest-steppe subzone in 1981 in the Novosibirsk region. Considering the characteristics of the statistical sample (observation and analysis data), the main predictors of the models affecting nitrate nitrogen content in soil were identified. The Bayesian trust network is constructed as an acyclic graph, in which the main (basic) nodes and their relationships are denoted. Network nodes are represented by qualitative and quantitative plot parameters (soil subtype, forecrop, tillage, weather conditions) with corresponding gradations (events). The network assigns a posteriori probability of events for the target node (nitrate-nitrogen content in the 0-40 cm soil layer) as a result of experts completing the conditional probability table, taking into account the analysis of empirical data. Two scenarios were analyzed to test the sustainability of the network and satisfactory results were obtained. The result of the logistic regression is the coefficients characterizing the closeness of the relationship between the dependent variable and the predictors. The coefficient of determination of the logistic regression is 0.7. This indicates that the quality of the model can be considered acceptable for forecasting. A comparative assessment of the predictive capabilities of the trained models is given. The overall proportion of correct predictions for the Bayesian confidence network is 84%, for logistic regression it is 87%.

Vegetation cover of subtaiga landscapes in premountain plain on a right bank of the Ob river

2014 ◽  
pp. 63-85
Author(s):  
N. N. Lashchinskiy ◽  
M. P. Tishchenko ◽  
O. Yu. Pisarenko ◽  
N. V. Lashchinskaya
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Southern Taiga ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
West Siberian Plain ◽  
The West ◽  
Steppe Species ◽  
Forest Diversity ◽  
Ob River

Vegetation of the right bank of the Ob River in the limits of Novosibirsk area consists of southern taiga, subtaiga and forest-steppe elements. More over, in comparison with neighboring areas on the West Siberian Plain, it contains the significant amount of mountain elements (Kuminova, Vagina, Lapshina, 1963). Natural vegetation of the area belongs to the forest-steppe subzone of the West Siberian province (Il’ina, 1985). Low percentage of forest coverage is caused by anthropogenic deforestation and wide distribution of meadows (Lapshina, 1963). This is the most endangered vegetation in Novosibirsk area. Spatial vegetation structure was studied by using the model of the Ob River basin covered 184 square kilometers. Well-developed system of ravines and small creeks caused a presence of relatively large areas with very low anthropogenic impact which potentially could be the refuges of pristine zonal vegetation. Main vegetation type of this basin is forest which covered about 31% of the area. Forest diversity of model area consists of four syntaxa of association and subassociation ranks belonging to the Brachypodio pinnati–Betuletea pendulae class. Meadow vegetation is presented by five syntaxa from the Molinio-Arrhenatheretea class and mire vegetation — by two syntaxa from the Alneteae glutinosae class. Two subassociations and four variants are described for the first time. The ravine systems could be considered as low-level landscape structures which are the natural refuges with high level of biodiversity and habitats of rare and endangered species. The slope vegetation organized in ecological rows consists of three up to four syntaxa changing from the top to the ravine bottom. The Ob River Basin flora is characterized by insignificant amount of meadow steppe species, well-represented mire flora and a presence of mountain and taiga elements. The most specific floristic features are the presence of ephemeroid species, taiga species and Siberian tertiary nemoral relics (Polozhiy, Krapivkina, 1985). All these features allow us to refer the river basin vegetation to the low-mountain subtaiga type.

Weather factors affecting the development of maize from sowing to flowering

1972 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 325-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. Hough
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Linear Correlation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Rate Of Development ◽  
Linear Correlation Analysis ◽  
The Mean

SUMMARYThe phenological development from sowing to flowering of the eaxly maize hybrid INRA 200 is related to the weather conditions. Plot trial data from Wytham, near Oxford, England, and weather information from that and nearby sites formed the basic data.The mean rate of development per day from sowing to emergence is related by linear correlation analysis to the mean values of soil temperature at 5 cm depth and soil moisture deficit. A range of temperature thresholds for emergence development exist, which depend upon the soil moisture, and which differ from the true physiological threshold.Between omergence and flowering the mean rate of development per day is related by linear correlation analysis to mean air temperature, solar radiation and potential transpiration estimated from weather data. All correlations are significant, but the parameters which combine radiation and temperature are statistically better.

scholarly journals An Efficient Intelligent Power Detection Method for Photovoltaic System

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Detection Method ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Photovoltaic System ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Intelligent Technique ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Validation Set

Jordan has experienced a significant increase in both peak load and annual electricity demand within the last decade due to the growth of the economy and population. Photovoltaic (PV) system is one of the most popular renewable energy source in Jordan. PV system is highly nonlinear with unpredictable behavior since it is always subject to many external factors such as severe weather conditions, irradiance level, sheds, temperature, etc. This makes it difficult to maintain maximum power production around its operation ranges. In this paper, an intelligent technique is used to predict and identify the working ability of the PV system under different weather factors in Tafila Technical University (TTU) in Jordan. It helps in optimizing power productions for different operation points. The PV system in Tafila with size 1 MWp PV generated 5.4 GWh since 2017. It saves about € 1.5 million in three years. A real power data from the PV system and a weather data from world weather online site of TTU location are used in this study. Decision tree technique is employed to identify the relation between the output power and weather factors. The results show that the system accuracy is 82.01% during the training phase and 93.425 % on the validation set.

scholarly journals The influence of weather conditions on breeding dates of the common gull (Larus canus) in the south of Western Siberia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 8-18
Author(s):  
M. Yu. Garyushkina ◽  
A. K. Yurlov
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Spring Temperatures ◽  
The Common ◽  
Using Data

Aim. The purpose of this research was to find out what local weather factors influence the nesting timing of the common gull (Larus canus). Material and Methods. The time of egg laying by the common gull was determined using data obtained during regular surveys over 8 years (1996‐1998, 2002‐2003, 2006‐2008) on the islands of Lake Bolshie Chany. Weather and climatic factors were assessed using open‐access databases. Results. It was been established that the start of egg‐laying in the colony of the common gull is determined by wind strength, the number of rainy days, the associated atmospheric pressure during the second decade of April, and the air temperature – the transition date at which the average daily air temperature rose above 0°C. In years with unstable spring temperatures, a relationship was revealed between the air temperature and the intensity of egg laying by the common gulls by day. In years when temperatures rise evenly, precipitation and wind speed become the main factors.Conclusion. We conclude that the egg‐laying dates of the common gull is influenced by weather variables during the whole nesting season and not predominantly by early season variables. We also show the importance of large‐scale climatic phenomena such as the EAWR in explaining variability in timing of the nesting of the common gull in Siberia. We suggest that future studies should focus on the effects of extremes in weather variables and global climatic phenomena.

The effects of weather on runway use by rodents

1987 ◽  
Vol 65 (8) ◽  
pp. 2035-2038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Gauthier ◽  
J. Roger Bider
Keyword(s):  
Deer Mouse ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Microtus Pennsylvanicus ◽  
Meadow Vole ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Activity Data ◽  
Napaeozapus Insignis ◽  
Animal Activity

The effects of weather on runway use by four species of rodents were investigated using animal activity data obtained from a sand track. Species studied were meadow vole (Microtus pennsylvanicus), deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), meadow jumping mouse (Zapus hudsonius), and woodland jumping mouse (Napaeozapus insignis). Runway use was quantified using the quotient of the activity inside to the activity outside the runway. The weather data were analyzed using a principal component analysis. The degree of concordance between the weather factors and runway use index was assessed by canonical correlation. Results showed that runway use decreases during warm, rainy, moonless nights. During these weather conditions, a predator's ability to find small rodents may be impaired, and the rodents could explore outside their runways to find new food patches.

scholarly journals Floodplain steppe meadows of the Eastern part of the Altai-Sayan mountain region

2017 ◽  
pp. 78-93
Author(s):  
N. I. Makunina ◽  
L. P. Parshutina
Keyword(s):  
West Siberia ◽  
Mountain Region ◽  
South Urals ◽  
Forest Steppe ◽  
West Siberian Plain ◽  
The South ◽  
The West ◽  
New Associations ◽  
River Types ◽  
Sayan Mountain

In South Siberian mountains floodplain steppe meadows can be found only within steppe and forest-steppe belts. In the eastern part of the Altai-Sayan mountain region (ASMR) these belts occupy large intermontane depressions, making up the submeridional range at 56–50° N (Fig. 1). The northern part of this range consists of four large depressions (the Nazarovo, North Minusinsk, Middle Minusinsk and South Minusinsk). To the north, the Nazarovo depression merges into the West Siberian plain. The southern border of the South Minusinsk depression is the West Sayan. The southern part of range includes the Turan-Uyuk and Central Tuvinian depressions. This study is based on the analysis of 260 geobotanical relevés made in the valleys of 47 rivers (21 — in Minusinsk depressions, 26 — in Tuvinian depressions). The set includes the relevés of steppe meadow of different river types (large, medium, small), located in different parts of the studied region. The typical feature of these communities is the permanent coexistence of steppe and meadow species with negligible part of meadow-steppe herbs. All steppe meadows under discussion are similar in appearance. Tall grasses, various in different associations, form a sparse upper sublayer. Depending on the intensity of use, the main part of the herbage can be located in the middle sublayer or in the bottom one. In the middle sublayer, grasses predominate (Bromopsis inermis, Poa angustifolia, Elytrigia repens). Herbs tolerant to grazing (Potentilla bifurca, Amoria repens) make up the bottom sublayer. We have revealed 6 associations of steppe meadows. Ass. Potentillo bifurcae–Poetum angustifoliae, Potentillo bifurcae–Leymetum dasystachyos, Potentillo bifurcae–Hordeetum brevisubulati are typical for Tuvinian depressions, ass. Artemisio laciniatae–Koelerietum delavignei, Trifolio pratensis–Koelerietum delavignei и Trifolio pratensis–Festucetum valesiacae — for Minusinsk ones (Table 1). The basic bioclimatic barrier of ASMR — the West Sayan divides their areas. The ordination of new associations along the gradients of moisture supply (horizontal axis) and richness-salinity of soils (vertical axis) demonstrates that areas of associations form two ranges — the Minusinsk and Tuvinian. Every association of the Minusinsk range has corresponding association of the Tuvinian range (Fig. 2). DCA-ordination (Fig. 3) and cluster analysis (Fig. 4) of syntaxa from the South Urals, West Siberia, Yakutia and new associations have detected the specificity of the last ones, so a new alliance Potentillo bifurcae–Poion angustifoliae (order Galietalia veri, class Molinio-Arrhenatheretea) has been described. It comprises steppe meadows of the Eastern part of ASMR.

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