scholarly journals Modeling the Heterogeneity of Dengue Transmission in a City

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingcai Kong ◽  
Jinfeng Wang ◽  
Zhongjie Li ◽  
Shengjie Lai ◽  
Qiyong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Virus ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Small Peak ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Dengue fever is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, and modeling its transmission dynamics allows for determining the key influence factors and helps to perform interventions. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered when modeling the dynamics. However, traditional models generally assumed homogeneous mixing between humans and vectors, which is inconsistent with reality. In this study, we proposed a compartmental model with negative binomial distribution transmission terms to model this heterogeneity at the population level. By including the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and incorporating the impacts of the environment and climate factors, an extended model was used to simulate the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China, and to simulate the spread of dengue in different scenarios. The results showed that a high level of heterogeneity can result in a small peak size in an outbreak. As the level of heterogeneity decreases, the transmission dynamics approximate the dynamics predicted by the corresponding homogeneous mixing model. The simulation results from different scenarios showed that performing interventions early and decreasing the carrying capacity for mosquitoes are necessary for preventing and controlling dengue epidemics. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of heterogeneity during the spread of dengue virus.

scholarly journals Association between disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis and healthcare utilisation on a population level: a retrospective cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. e033599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Al-Sakran ◽  
Ruth Ann Marrie ◽  
David Blackburn ◽  
Katherine Knox ◽  
Charity Evans
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Demyelinating Disease ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Healthcare Utilisation ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Disease Modifying ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveDisease-modifying therapy (DMT) use in multiple sclerosis (MS) has increased significantly. However, the impact of DMTs on healthcare use is limited and conflicting, and rarely examined at a population level. This study examined the association between DMTs and healthcare utilisation at the population level.DesignRetrospective cohort.SettingHealth administrative data from Saskatchewan, Canada (1997–2016).ParticipantsTo test for associations at the population level, we identified two cohorts. The general population cohort included all Saskatchewan residents ≥18 years who were drug plan beneficiaries. The MS cohort included individuals ≥18 years, identified using a validated definition (≥3 hospital, physician or drug claims for MS).Main outcome measures and methodsTo test for an association between the total number of DMT dispensations per year and the total number of hospitalisations we used negative binomial regression fitted with generalised estimating equations (GEE); only hospitalisations that occurred after the date of MS diagnosis (date of first claim for MS or demyelinating disease) were extracted. To test for an association between the number of DMT dispensations and physician claims, negative binomial distributions with GEE were fit as above. Results were reported as rate ratios (RR), with 95% CIs, and calculated for every 1000 DMT dispensations.ResultsThe number of DMT dispensations was associated with a decreased risk for all-cause (RR=0.994; 95% CI 0.992 to 0.996) and MS-specific (RR=0.909; 95% CI 0.880 to 0.938) hospitalisations. The number of DMT dispensations was not associated with the number of all-cause (RR=1.006; 95% CI 0.990 to 1.022) or MS-specific (RR=0.962; 95% CI 0.910 to 1.016) physician claims.ConclusionIncreased DMT use in Saskatchewan was associated with a reduction in hospitalisations, but did not impact the number of physician services used. Additional research on cost-benefit and differing treatment strategies would provide further insight into the true impact of DMTs on healthcare utilisation at a population level.

scholarly journals Compliance Determinant Of Paying Zakat Maal

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 213
Author(s):  
Tamimah Tamimah
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Method Approach

Purpose: Madura is an island located in East Java which has a community with a high level of religiosity. Sumenep is one of the districts in Madura which has the largest population level among other districts in Madura. However, this is not in line with public compliance in paying zakat maal. Therefore, this study aims to find out whether religiosity, literacy, income, and tax obligation have an effect on community compliance to pay zakat maal.Design/Method/Approach: The data obtained in this study uses primary data obtained from people who pay taxes, using purposive sampling technique by determining people who have reached nisab, and for the analysis, it uses multiple regression.Findings: it shows that only religiosity and tax payment obligations which have an influence, while literacy and income do not have an effect on compliance to pay zakat maal. The implication of this research is as an evaluation for the local government to socialize the important role of the impact of zakat maal on the community, and to increase public understanding of the obligation to pay zakat maal.Originality/Novelty: Lots ofresearchesexamine the obligation to pay zakat fitrah but it is very rare to find research on zakat maal which is an obligation that must also be paid by someone who has assets that have reached Nisab (the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to zakat).

scholarly journals Estimated impact of tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax control and elimination in Brazil: A modelling study

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. e1003535
Author(s):  
Narimane Nekkab ◽  
Raquel Lana ◽  
Marcus Lacerda ◽  
Thomas Obadia ◽  
André Siqueira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Management ◽  
Plasmodium Vivax ◽  
Malaria Elimination ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Radical Cure ◽  
Treatment Pathways ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modelling Study ◽  
Clinical Cases

Background Despite recent intensification of control measures, Plasmodium vivax poses a major challenge for malaria elimination efforts. Liver-stage hypnozoite parasites that cause relapsing infections can be cleared with primaquine; however, poor treatment adherence undermines drug effectiveness. Tafenoquine, a new single-dose treatment, offers an alternative option for preventing relapses and reducing transmission. In 2018, over 237,000 cases of malaria were reported to the Brazilian health system, of which 91.5% were due to P. vivax. Methods and findings We evaluated the impact of introducing tafenoquine into case management practices on population-level transmission dynamics using a mathematical model of P. vivax transmission. The model was calibrated to reflect the transmission dynamics of P. vivax endemic settings in Brazil in 2018, informed by nationwide malaria case reporting data. Parameters for treatment pathways with chloroquine, primaquine, and tafenoquine with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) testing were informed by clinical trial data and the literature. We assumed 71.3% efficacy for primaquine and tafenoquine, a 66.7% adherence rate to the 7-day primaquine regimen, a mean 5.5% G6PDd prevalence, and 8.1% low metaboliser prevalence. The introduction of tafenoquine is predicted to improve effective hypnozoite clearance among P. vivax cases and reduce population-level transmission over time, with heterogeneous levels of impact across different transmission settings. According to the model, while achieving elimination in only few settings in Brazil, tafenoquine rollout in 2021 is estimated to improve the mean effective radical cure rate from 42% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 41%–44%) to 62% (95% UI 54%–68%) among clinical cases, leading to a predicted 38% (95% UI 7%–99%) reduction in transmission and over 214,000 cumulative averted cases between 2021 and 2025. Higher impact is predicted in settings with low transmission, low pre-existing primaquine adherence, and a high proportion of cases in working-aged males. High-transmission settings with a high proportion of cases in children would benefit from a safe high-efficacy tafenoquine dose for children. Our methodological limitations include not accounting for the role of imported cases from outside the transmission setting, relying on reported clinical cases as a measurement of community-level transmission, and implementing treatment efficacy as a binary condition. Conclusions In our modelling study, we predicted that, provided there is concurrent rollout of G6PDd diagnostics, tafenoquine has the potential to reduce P. vivax transmission by improving effective radical cure through increased adherence and increased protection from new infections. While tafenoquine alone may not be sufficient for P. vivax elimination, its introduction will improve case management, prevent a substantial number of cases, and bring countries closer to achieving malaria elimination goals.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Effects of Temperature and Human Movement on Malaria Disease Transmission Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganga Ram Phaijoo
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Movement Rates ◽  
Anopheles Mosquitoes ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Temperature Levels ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Malaria disease is transmitted by the bite of Anopheles mosquitoes. Plasmodium parasites are responsible for the disease. Due to human movement from one place to the other, vector borne diseases like malaria are spreading rapidly throughout the world. They have become major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Changing temperature levels has significant impact on the life cycle, biting behavior and death rates of the mosquitoes which can transmit the disease.Methods: A multi patch SEIRS - SEI deterministic compartmental model for malaria disease is developed to study the disease transmission dynamics. The impact of temperature and human movement in transmission dynamics is investigated. Both global and local basic reproduction numbers are computed for two patches in two patch setting.Results: Disease free equilibrium is locally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity and unstable when the number is greater than unity. Numerical results show that the prevalence of the disease changes with the change in human movement rates between the patches; temperature affects the transmission dynamics of malaria disease.Conclusion: The burden of malaria disease can be reduced by managing the host movement between low and high disease prevalent patches. The optimal temperature for malaria disease transmission is 25 °C.

ПРАГМАТИЧНИЙ ПОТЕНЦІАЛ НАТИВНОЇ РЕКЛАМИ: ФОРМИ, ТРЕНДИ (НА ПРИКЛАДІ НАТИВНОГО КОНТЕНТУ В СОЦІАЛЬНІЙ МЕРЕЖІ FACEBOOK ЩОДО БРЕНДА ФАКУЛЬТЕТУ ЖУРНАЛІСТИКИ ЗНУ)

2020 ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
V. Kovpak ◽  
N. Trotsenko
Keyword(s):  
Social Network ◽  
Professional Training ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Student Centered ◽  
Teacher Student ◽  
The Social ◽  
National University ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

<div><p><em>The article analyzes the peculiarities of the format of native advertising in the media space, its pragmatic potential (in particular, on the example of native content in the social network Facebook by the brand of the journalism department of ZNU), highlights the types and trends of native advertising. The following research methods were used to achieve the purpose of intelligence: descriptive (content content, including various examples), comparative (content presentation options) and typological (types, trends of native advertising, in particular, cross-media as an opportunity to submit content in different formats (video, audio, photos, text, infographics, etc.)), content analysis method using Internet services (using Popsters service). And the native code for analytics was the page of the journalism department of Zaporizhzhya National University on the social network Facebook. After all, the brand of the journalism department of Zaporozhye National University in 2019 celebrates its 15th anniversary. The brand vector is its value component and professional training with balanced distribution of theoretical and practical blocks (seven practices), student-centered (democratic interaction and high-level teacher-student dialogue) and integration into Ukrainian and world educational process (participation in grant programs).</em></p></div><p><em>And advertising on social networks is also a kind of native content, which does not appear in special blocks, and is organically inscribed on one page or another and unobtrusively offers, just remembering the product as if «to the word». Popsters service functionality, which evaluates an account (or linked accounts of one person) for 35 parameters, but the main three areas: reach or influence, or how many users evaluate, comment on the recording; true reach – the number of people affected; network score – an assessment of the audience’s response to the impact, or how far the network information diverges (how many share information on this page).</em></p><p><strong><em>Key words:</em></strong><em> nativeness, native advertising, branded content, special project, communication strategy.</em></p>

THE IMPACT OF UKRAINE'S EXCISE DUTY POLICY ON THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESSES OF THE TOBACCO MARKET

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (10) ◽  
pp. 19-33
Author(s):  
Nadiia NOVYTSKA ◽  
◽  
Inna KHLIEBNIKOVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Transformation Process ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Tobacco Products ◽  
Excise Duty ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Transformation Processes

The market of tobacco products in Ukraine is one of the most dynamic and competitive. It develops under the influence of certain factors that cause structural changes, therefore, the aim of the article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of transformation processes in the market of tobacco and their alternatives in Ukraine and identify the factors that cause them. The high level of tax burden and the proliferation of alternative products with a potentially lower risk to human health, including heating tobacco products and e-cigarettes, are key factors in the market’s transformation process. Their presence leads to an increase in illicit turnover of tobacco products, which accounts for 6.37% of the market, and the gradual replacement of cigarettes with alternative products, which account for 12.95%. The presence on the market of products that are not taxed or taxed at lower rates is one of the reasons for the reduction of excise duty revenues. According to the results of 2019, the planned indicators of revenues were not met by 23.5%. Other reasons for non-fulfillment of excise duty revenues include: declining dynamics of the tobacco products market; reduction in the number of smokers; reorientation of «cheap whites» cigarette flows from Ukraine to neighboring countries; tax avoidance. Prospects for further research are identified, namely the need to develop measures for state regulation and optimization of excise duty taxation of tobacco products and their alternatives, taking into account the risks to public health and increasing demand of illegal products.

Role of Credit Rating in determining Capital structure: Evidence from Non-Financial sector of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoaib Ali ◽  
Imran Yousaf ◽  
Muhammad Naveed
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Leverage Ratio ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Capital Structure

This paper aims to examine the impact of external credit ratings on the financial decisions of the firms in Pakistan.  This study uses the annual data of 70 non-financial firms for the period 2012-2018. It uses ordinary least square (OLS) to estimate the impact of credit rating on capital structure. The results show that rated firm has a high level of leverage. Moreover, Profitability and tanagability are also found to be a significantly negative determinant of the capital structure, whereas, size of the firm has a significant positive relationship with the capital structure of the firm.  Besides, there exists a non-linear relationship between the credit rating and the capital structure. The rated firms have higher leverage as compared to the non-rated firms. The high and low rated firms have a low level of leverage, while mid rated firms have a higher leverage ratio. The finding of the study have practical implications for the manager; they can have easier access to the financial market by just having a credit rating no matter high or low. Policymakers must stress upon the rating agencies to keep improving themselves as their rating severs as the measure to judge the creditworthiness of the firm by both the investors and management as well.

ANALISIS RISIKO OPERASIONAL MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI KERUGIAN DENGAN METODE AGREGAT

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Y. ARBI ◽  
R. BUDIARTI ◽  
I G. P. PURNABA
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial Distribution ◽  
Binomial Distribution ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Loss Distribution Approach ◽  
Potential Loss ◽  
The Impact

Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes or external problems. Insurance companies as financial institution that also faced at risk. Recording of operating losses in insurance companies, were not properly conducted so that the impact on the limited data for operational losses. In this work, the data of operational loss observed from the payment of the claim. In general, the number of insurance claims can be modelled using the Poisson distribution, where the expected value of the claims is similar with variance, while the negative binomial distribution, the expected value was bound to be less than the variance.Analysis tools are used in the measurement of the potential loss is the loss distribution approach with the aggregate method. In the aggregate method, loss data grouped in a frequency distribution and severity distribution. After doing 10.000 times simulation are resulted total loss of claim value, which is total from individual claim every simulation. Then from the result was set the value of potential loss (OpVar) at a certain level confidence.

Use of Nutrition Information and Understanding of “Percent Daily Value” on Nutrition Facts Tables: Evaluating the Impact of a National Public Education Campaign among Youth and Young Adults in Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brittany Cormier ◽  
Lana Vanderlee ◽  
David Hammond
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Correct Recall ◽  
Nutrition Information ◽  
Education Campaign ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Public Education Campaign ◽  
Youth And Young Adults ◽  
Campaign Message ◽  
Health Canada ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: In 2010, Health Canada implemented a national campaign to improve understanding of “percent daily value” (%DV) in Nutrition Facts Tables (NFTs). This study examined sources of nutrition information and knowledge of %DV information communicated in the campaign. Methods: Respondents aged 16–30 years completed the Canada Food Study in 2016 (n = 2665). Measures included sources of nutrition information, NFT use, and %DV knowledge based on the campaign message (“5% DV or less is a little; 15% DV or more is a lot”). A logistic regression examined correlates of providing “correct” responses to %DV questions related to the campaign messaging. Results: Overall, 7.2% (n = 191) respondents correctly indicated that 5% is “a little”, and 4.3% (n = 115) correctly indicated 15% DV was “a lot”. Only 4.0% (n = 107) correctly answered both. Correct recall of %DV amounts was not associated with number of information sources reported, but was greater among those who were female, were younger, and reported greater NFT understanding and serving size information use (P < 0.05 for all). Conclusions: Results show low awareness of messaging from the Nutrition Facts Education Campaign among young Canadians. Such a mass media campaign may be insufficient on its own to enhance population-level understanding of %DV.

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