scholarly journals Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (19) ◽  
pp. 10359
Author(s):  
Yuchen Zhu ◽  
Dandan Zhang ◽  
Yuchen Hu ◽  
Chunyu Li ◽  
Yan Jia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Shandong Province ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
School Students ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Background: Small-scale studies have identified temperature and other meteorological factors as risk factors for human health. However, only a few have quantified the specific impact of meteorological factors on mumps. A quantitative examination of the exposure–response relationship between meteorological factors and mumps is needed to provide new insights for multi-city analysis. Methods: The daily recorded number of mumps cases and meteorological data in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2017 were collected. A two-stage model was built to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps. Results: A total of 104,685 cases of mumps were recorded from 2009 to 2017. After controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, the effect of low temperature on mumps was significant at the provincial level, with a cumulative RR of 1.035 (95%CI: 1.002–1.069) with a 1-day lagged effect. The proportion of primary and middle school students was determined as an effect modifier, which had a significant impact on mumps (Stat = 8.374, p = 0.039). There was heterogeneity in the combined effect of temperature on mumps (Q = 95.447, p = 0.000), and its size was I2 = 49.7%. Conclusions: We have identified a non-linear relationship between mumps and temperature in Shandong Province. In particular, low temperatures could bring more cases of mumps, with certain lagged effects. More public health measures should be taken to reduce the risks when temperatures are low, especially for cities with a high proportion of primary and secondary school students.

scholarly journals The modification effect of temperature on the relationship between air pollutants and daily incidence of influenza in Ningbo, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Zhang ◽  
Yujie Meng ◽  
Hejia Song ◽  
Ran Niu ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Modification Effect ◽  
Incidence Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Although exposure to air pollution has been linked to many health issues, few studies have quantified the modification effect of temperature on the relationship between air pollutants and daily incidence of influenza in Ningbo, China. Methods The data of daily incidence of influenza and the relevant meteorological data and air pollution data in Ningbo from 2014 to 2017 were retrieved. Low, medium and high temperature layers were stratified by the daily mean temperature with 25th and 75th percentiles. The potential modification effect of temperature on the relationship between air pollutants and daily incidence of influenza in Ningbo was investigated through analyzing the effects of air pollutants stratified by temperature stratum using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). Stratified analysis by sex and age were also conducted. Results Overall, a 10 μg/m3 increment of O3, PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 could increase the incidence risk of influenza with the cumulative relative risk of 1.028 (95% CI 1.007, 1.050), 1.061 (95% CI 1.004, 1.122), 1.043 (95% CI 1.003, 1.085), and 1.118 (95% CI 1.028, 1.216), respectively. Male and aged 7–17 years were more sensitive to air pollutants. Through the temperature stratification analysis, we found that temperature could modify the impacts of air pollution on daily incidence of influenza with high temperature exacerbating the impact of air pollutants. At high temperature layer, male and the groups aged 0–6 years and 18–64 years were more sensitive to air pollution. Conclusion Temperature modified the relationship between air pollution and daily incidence of influenza and high temperature would exacerbate the effects of air pollutants in Ningbo.

scholarly journals Innovation and product market concentration: Schumpeter, arrow, and the inverted U-shape curve

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flavio Delbono ◽  
Luca Lambertini
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Product Market ◽  
Market Concentration ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Shape Curve ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Theoretical Results

Abstract We investigate the relationship between market concentration and industry innovative effort within a familiar two-stage model of R&D race in which firms compete à la Cournot in the product market. With the help of numerical simulations, we show that such a setting is rich enough to generate Arrovian, Schumpeterian, and inverted U curves. We interpret these different patterns on the basis of the relative strength of the technological incentive and the strategic incentive. We then bridge our theoretical results and some recent empirical research.

scholarly journals Effects and interaction of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence in Huludao City, northeastern China, 2007–2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. e0009217
Author(s):  
Wanwan Sun ◽  
Xiaobo Liu ◽  
Wen Li ◽  
Zhiyuan Mao ◽  
Jimin Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Delayed Effects

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne disease, is a severe public health threat. Previous studies have discovered the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence, while few studies have concentrated on the stratified analysis of delayed effects and interaction effects of meteorological factors on HFRS. Objective Huludao City is a representative area in north China that suffers from HFRS with primary transmission by Rattus norvegicus. This study aimed to evaluate the climate factors of lag, interaction, and stratified effects of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in Huludao City. Methods Our researchers collected meteorological data and epidemiological data of HFRS cases in Huludao City during 2007–2018. First, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for a maximum lag of 16 weeks was developed to assess the respective lag effect of temperature, precipitation, and humidity on HFRS incidence. We then constructed a generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the interaction effect between temperature and the other two meteorological factors on HFRS incidence and the stratified effect of meteorological factors. Results During the study period, 2751 cases of HFRS were reported in Huludao City. The incidence of HFRS showed a seasonal trend and peak times from February to May. Using the median WAT, median WTP, and median WARH as the reference, the results of DLNM showed that extremely high temperature (97.5th percentile of WAT) had significant associations with HFRS at lag week 15 (RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.04–2.74) and lag week 16 (RR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.31–5.95). Under the extremely low temperature (2.5th percentile of WAT), the RRs of HFRS infection were significant at lag week 5 (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01–1.67) and lag 6 weeks (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.57). The RRs of relative humidity were statistically significant at lag week 10 (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00–1.43) and lag week 11 (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.02–1.50) under extremely high relative humidity (97.5th percentile of WARH); however, no statistically significance was observed under extremely low relative humidity (2.5th percentile of WARH). The RRs were significantly high when WAT was -10 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.02–1.76), -9 degrees Celsius (1.37, 95% CI: 1.04–1.79), and -8 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03–1.75) at lag week 5 and more than 23 degrees Celsius after 15 weeks. Interaction and stratified analyses showed that the risk of HFRS infection reached its highest when both temperature and precipitation were at a high level. Conclusions Our study indicates that meteorological factors, including temperature and humidity, have delayed effects on the occurrence of HFRS in the study area, and the effect of temperature can be modified by humidity and precipitation. Public health professionals should pay more attention to HFRS control when the weather conditions of high temperature with more substantial precipitation and 15 weeks after the temperature is higher than 23 degrees Celsius.

scholarly journals Effect of meteorological factors on influenza-like illness from 2012 to 2015 in Huludao, a northeastern city in China

PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e6919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying-Long Bai ◽  
De-Sheng Huang ◽  
Jing Liu ◽  
De-Qiang Li ◽  
Peng Guan
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Vapor Pressure ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Temperature Minimum ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature ◽  
Minimum Air Temperature

Background This study aims to describe the epidemiological patterns of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Huludao, China and seek scientific evidence on the link of ILI activity with weather factors. Methods Surveillance data of ILI cases between January 2012 and December 2015 was collected in Huludao Central Hospital, meteorological data was obtained from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to seek the relationship between the number of ILI cases and the meteorological factors. Multiple Smoothing parameter estimation was made on the basis of Poisson distribution, where the number of weekly ILI cases was treated as response, and the smoothness of weather was treated as covariates. Lag time was determined by the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC). Smoothing coefficients were estimated for the prediction of the number of ILI cases. Results A total of 29, 622 ILI cases were observed during the study period, with children ILI cases constituted 86.77%. The association between ILI activity and meteorological factors varied across different lag periods. The lag time for average air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, vapor pressure and relative humidity were 2, 2, 1, 1 and 0 weeks, respectively. Average air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, vapor pressure and relative humidity could explain 16.5%, 9.5%, 18.0%, 15.9% and 7.7% of the deviance, respectively. Among the temperature indexes, the minimum temperature played the most important role. The number of ILI cases peaked when minimum temperature was around −13 °C in winter and 18 °C in summer. The number of cases peaked when the relative humidity was equal to 43% and then began to decrease with the increase of relative humidity. When the humidity exceeded 76%, the number of ILI cases began to rise. Conclusions The present study first analyzed the relationship between meteorological factors and ILI cases with special consideration of the length of lag period in Huludao, China. Low air temperature and low relative humidity (cold and dry weather condition) played a considerable role in the epidemic pattern of ILI cases. The trend of ILI activity could be possibly predicted by the variation of meteorological factors.

scholarly journals Meteorological factors affecting the risk of transmission of HPAI in Miyazaki, Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. e000341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genki Arikawa ◽  
Yoshinori Fujii ◽  
Maiku Abe ◽  
Ngan Thi Mai ◽  
Shuya Mitoma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bird Migration ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Migratory Waterfowl ◽  
Generalised Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Fulica Atra ◽  
The Relationship

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks engender a severe economic impact on the poultry industry and public health. Migratory waterfowl are considered the natural hosts of HPAI virus, and HPAI viruses are known to be transmitted over long distances during seasonal bird migration. Bird migration is greatly affected by the weather. Many studies have shown the relationship between either autumn or spring bird migration and climate. However, few studies have shown the relationship between annual bird migration and annual weather. This study aimed to establish a model for the number of migratory waterfowl involved in HPAI virus transmission based on meteorological data. From 136 species of waterfowl that were observed at Futatsudate in Miyazaki, Japan, from 2008 to 2016, we selected potential high-risk species that could introduce the HPAI virus into Miyazaki and defined them as ‘risky birds’. We also performed cluster analysis to select meteorological factors. We then analysed the meteorological data and the total number of risky birds using a generalised linear mixed model. We selected 10 species as risky birds: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Northern pintail (Anas acuta), Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope), Eurasian teal (Anas crecca), Common pochard (Aythya ferina), Eurasian coot (Fulica atra), Northern shoveler (Anas clypeata), Common shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula) and Herring gull (Larus argentatus). We succeeded in clustering 35 meteorological factors into four clusters and identified three meteorological factors associated with their migration: (1) the average daily maximum temperature; (2) the mean value of global solar radiation and (3) the maximum daily precipitation. We thus demonstrated the relationship between the number of risky birds and meteorological data. The dynamics of migratory waterfowl was relevant to the risk of an HPAI outbreak, and our data could contribute to cost and time savings in strengthening preventive measures against epidemics.

A model for stratigraphic and metamorphic inversions at Sulitjelma, central Scandes

1987 ◽  
Vol 124 (5) ◽  
pp. 451-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Boyle
Keyword(s):  
Simple Shear ◽  
Initial Phase ◽  
Crustal Thickening ◽  
Strain History ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Nappe Emplacement ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Early Strain

AbstractThe relationship between disposition of metamorphic isograds and early strain history is examined for the Sulitjelma Fold Nappe of the central Scandes. Evidence for stratigraphic inversion and the widespread inversion of the garnet isograd is reviewed, and new evidence for the nature of early Scandian deformation is presented. A two-stage model is presented which explains the inversions by (i) an initial phase of horizontal compression resulting in crustal thickening by vertical stretching during closure of a marginal basin, followed by (ii) continued horizontal compression and crustal thickening by eastward-directed nappe emplacement. The emplacement of the Sulitjelma Fold Nappe during the latter phase of progressive simple-shear-dominated deformation was accompanied by the development of sheath fold geometries and the overturning of isotherms to produce the widespread inversion of the garnet isograd.

scholarly journals Using a distributed lag non-linear model to identify impact of temperature variables on haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong Province

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (13) ◽  
pp. 1671-1679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinqin Xu ◽  
Runzi Li ◽  
Shannon Rutherford ◽  
Cheng Luo ◽  
Yafei Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Model ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Shandong Province ◽  
Haemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Non Linear

AbstractHaemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is transmitted to humans mainly by rodents and this transmission could be easily influenced by meteorological factors. Given the long-term changes in climate associated with global climate change, it is important to better identify the effects of meteorological factors of HFRS in epidemic areas. Shandong province is one of the most seriously suffered provinces of HFRS in China. Daily HFRS data and meteorological data from 2007 to 2012 in Shandong province were applied. Quasi-Poisson regression with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the influences of mean temperature and Diurnal temperature range (DTR) on HFRS by sex, adjusting for the effects of relative humidity, precipitation, day-of-the-week, long-term trends and seasonality. A total of 6707 HFRS cases were reported in our study. The two peaks of HFRS were from March to June and from October to December, particularly, the latter peak in 2012. The estimated effects of mean temperature and DTR on HFRS were non-linear. The immediate and strong effect of low temperature and high DTR on HFRS was found. The lowest temperature −8.86°C at lag 0 days indicated the largest related relative risk (RRs) with the reference (14.85 °C), respectively, 1.46 (95% CI 1.11–1.90) for total cases, 1.33 (95% CI 1.00–1.78) for the males and 1.76 (95% CI 1.12–2.79) for the females. Highest DTR was associated with a higher risk on HFRS, the largest RRs (95% CI) were obtained when DTR = 15.97 °C with a reference at 8.62 °C, with 1.26 (0.96–1.64) for total cases and 1.52 (0.97–2.38) for the female at lag 0 days, 1.22 (1.05–1.41) for the male at lag 5 days. Non-linear lag effects of mean temperature and DTR on HFRS were identified and there were slight differences for different sexes.

scholarly journals Wholes and subparts in visual processing of human agency

2008 ◽  
Vol 276 (1658) ◽  
pp. 861-869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Neri
Keyword(s):  
Visual System ◽  
Human Visual System ◽  
Visual Processing ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Local Motion ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
One Stage ◽  
The Relationship

The human visual system is remarkably sensitive to stimuli conveying actions, for example the fighting action between two agents. A central unresolved question is whether each agent is processed as a whole in one stage, or as subparts (e.g. limbs) that are assembled into an agent at a later stage. We measured the perceptual impact of perturbing an agent either by scrambling individual limbs while leaving the relationship between limbs unaffected or conversely by scrambling the relationship between limbs while leaving individual limbs unaffected. Our measurements differed for the two conditions, providing conclusive evidence against a one-stage model. The results were instead consistent with a two-stage processing pathway: an early bottom-up stage where local motion signals are integrated to reconstruct individual limbs (arms and legs), and a subsequent top-down stage where limbs are combined to represent whole agents.

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