scholarly journals Prioritization of the Target Population for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination Program in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 10803
Author(s):  
Rapeepong Suphanchaimat ◽  
Titiporn Tuangratananon ◽  
Nattadhanai Rajatanavin ◽  
Mathudara Phaiyarom ◽  
Warisara Jaruwanno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Social Acceptability ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Policy Scenario ◽  
Second Wave

Thailand was hit by the second wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely migrant-populated province (Samut Sakhon). COVID-19 vaccines were known to be effective; however, the supply was limited. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the effectiveness of Thailand’s COVID-19 vaccination strategy. We obtained most of the data from the Ministry of Public Health. Deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models were utilized. The reproduction number (R) between Thais and migrants was estimated at 1.25 and 2.5, respectively. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent infection was assumed at 50%. In Samut Sakhon, there were 500,000 resident Thais and 360,000 resident migrants. The contribution of migrants to the province’s gross domestic product was estimated at 20%. Different policy scenarios were analyzed. The migrant-centric vaccination policy scenario received the lowest incremental cost per one case or one death averted compared with the other scenarios. The Thai-centric policy scenario yielded an incremental cost of 27,191 Baht per one life saved, while the migrant-centric policy scenario produced a comparable incremental cost of 3782 Baht. Sensitivity analysis also demonstrated that the migrant-centric scenario presented the most cost-effective outcome even when VE diminished to 20%. A migrant-centric policy yielded the smallest volume of cumulative infections and deaths and was the most cost-effective scenario, independent of R and VE values. Further studies should address political feasibility and social acceptability of migrant vaccine prioritization.

Stability Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Stochastic Perturbation and Numerical Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Fan ◽  
Zhigang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Deterministic System ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Special Case ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractAn SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration and random fluctuation around the endemic equilibrium is considered. As a special case, a deterministic system discussed by Li et al. will be incorporated into the stochastic version given by us. We carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model, also regarding of the basic reproduction number ℛ

scholarly journals Anti-meningococcal B vaccination in Italian adolescents: a cost-effective health opportunity

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Panatto ◽  
P Landa ◽  
D Amicizia ◽  
P L Lai ◽  
E Lecini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Dose Schedule ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Invasive Disease ◽  
International Setting ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Invasive disease due to Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a serious public health problem even in developed countries, owing to its high lethality rate (8-15%) and the invalidating sequelae suffered by many (up to 60%) survivors. As the microorganism is transmitted via the airborne route, the only available weapon in the fight against Nm invasive disease is vaccination. Our aim was to carry out an HTA to evaluate the costs and benefits of anti-meningococcal B (MenB) vaccination with Trumenba® in adolescents in Italy, while also considering the impact of this new vaccination strategy on organizational and ethics aspects. Methods A lifetime Markov model was developed. MenB vaccination with the two-dose schedule of Trumenba® in adolescents was compared with 'non-vaccination'. Two perspectives were considered: the National Health Service (NHS) and society. Three disease phases were defined: acute, post-acute and long-term. Epidemiological, economic and health utilities data were taken from Italian and international literature. The analysis was conducted by means of Microsoft Excel 2010®. Results Our study indicated that vaccinating adolescents (11th year of life) with Trumenba® was cost-effective with an ICER = € 7,912/QALY from the NHS perspective and € 7,758/QALY from the perspective of society. Vaccinating adolescents reduces the number of cases of disease due to meningococcus B in one of the periods of highest incidence of the disease, resulting in significant economic and health savings. Conclusions This is the first study to evaluate the overall impact of free MenB vaccination in adolescents both in Italy and in the international setting. Although cases of invasive disease due to meningococcus B are few, if the overall impact of the disease is adequately considered, it becomes clear that including anti-meningococcal B vaccination into the immunization program for adolescents is strongly recommended from the health and economic standpoints. Key messages Free, large-scale MenB vaccination is key to strengthening the global fight against invasive meningococcal disease. Anti-meningococcal B vaccination in adolescents is a cost-effective health opportunity.

scholarly journals Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipo Aldila ◽  
Brenda M. Samiadji ◽  
Gracia M. Simorangkir ◽  
Sarbaz H. A. Khosnaw ◽  
Muhammad Shahzad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Rapid Testing ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Vaccine Potential ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract Objective Several essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors. Results Infection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta’s government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential.

scholarly journals Assessing Interventions against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Osaka, Japan: A Modeling Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1256
Author(s):  
Ko Nakajo ◽  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
Model Comparison ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Osaka Prefecture ◽  
Time Of Infection ◽  
Single Intervention ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Combined Interventions

Estimation of the effective reproduction number, R(t), of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in real-time is a continuing challenge. R(t) reflects the epidemic dynamics based on readily available illness onset data, and is useful for the planning and implementation of public health and social measures. In the present study, we proposed a method for computing the R(t) of COVID-19, and applied this method to the epidemic in Osaka prefecture from February to September 2020. We estimated R(t) as a function of the time of infection using the date of illness onset. The epidemic in Osaka came under control around 2 April during the first wave, and 26 July during the second wave. R(t) did not decline drastically following any single intervention. However, when multiple interventions were combined, the relative reductions in R(t) during the first and second waves were 70% and 51%, respectively. Although the second wave was brought under control without declaring a state of emergency, our model comparison indicated that relying on a single intervention would not be sufficient to reduce R(t) < 1. The outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rely on political leadership to swiftly design and implement combined interventions capable of broadly and appropriately reducing contacts.

A multigroup model for cholera dynamics and control

2015 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 1650001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drew Posny ◽  
Chairat Modnak ◽  
Jin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Sharp Threshold ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Dynamics And Control ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Transmission Pathways ◽  
And Control ◽  
Control Study ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

We propose a general multigroup model for cholera dynamics that involves both direct and indirect transmission pathways and that incorporates spatial heterogeneity. Under biologically feasible conditions, we show that the basic reproduction number R0 remains a sharp threshold for cholera dynamics in multigroup settings. We verify the analysis by numerical simulation results. We also perform an optimal control study to explore optimal vaccination strategy for cholera outbreaks.

Cost-Effectiveness: Cholinesterase Inhibitors and Memantine in Vascular Dementia

2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 735-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla L. Wong ◽  
Nick Bansback ◽  
Philip E. Lee ◽  
Aslam H. Anis
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Vascular Dementia ◽  
Standard Care ◽  
Cholinesterase Inhibitors ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Decision Analysis Model ◽  
Physician Visits ◽  
Cost Effective Treatment

Background:Several randomized controlled trials of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine in mild to moderate vascular dementia have demonstrated the efficacy of these treatments. However, given these drugs incur considerable cost, the economic argument for their use is less clear.Objective:To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine for mild to moderate vascular dementia.Design:A decision analysis model using a 24-28 week time horizon was developed. Outcomes of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine and probabilities of adverse events were extracted from a systematic review. Costs of adverse events, medications, and physician visits were obtained from local estimates. Robustness was tested with probabilistic sensitivity analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation.Interventions:Donepezil 5 mg daily, donepezil 10 mg daily, galantamine 16-24 mg daily, rivastigmine flexible dosing up to 6 mg twice daily, or memantine 10 mg twice daily versus standard care.Main Outcome Measures:Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed as cost per unit decrease in the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive (ADAS-cog) subscale.Results:Donepezil 10 mg daily was found to be the most cost-effective treatment with an ICER of $400.64 (95%CI, $281.10-$596.35) per unit decline in the ADAS-cog subscale. All other treatments were dominated by donepezil 10 mg, that is, more costly and less effective.Conclusion:From a societal perspective, treatment with cholinesterase inhibitors or memantine was more effective but also more costly than standard care for mild to moderate vascular dementia. The donepezil 10 mg strategy was the most cost-effective and also dominated the other alternatives.

Cost-effectiveness of dual-mobility components in patients with displaced femoral neck fractures

2021 ◽  
Vol 103-B (12) ◽  
pp. 1783-1790
Author(s):  
Spencer Montgomery ◽  
Jonathan Bourget-Murray ◽  
Daniel Z. You ◽  
Leo Nherera ◽  
Amir Khoshbin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Femoral Neck ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Physiological Age ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Dual Mobility ◽  
Displaced Femoral Neck Fractures

Aims Total hip arthroplasty (THA) with dual-mobility components (DM-THA) has been shown to decrease the risk of dislocation in the setting of a displaced neck of femur fracture compared to conventional single-bearing THA (SB-THA). This study assesses if the clinical benefit of a reduced dislocation rate can justify the incremental cost increase of DM-THA compared to SB-THA. Methods Costs and benefits were established for patients aged 75 to 79 years over a five-year time period in the base case from the Canadian Health Payer’s perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis assessed the robustness of the base case model conclusions. Results DM-THA was found to be cost-effective, with an estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of CAD $46,556 (£27,074) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Sensitivity analysis revealed DM-THA was not cost-effective across all age groups in the first two years. DM-THA becomes cost-effective for those aged under 80 years at time periods from five to 15 years, but was not cost-effective for those aged 80 years and over at any timepoint. To be cost-effective at ten years in the base case, DM-THA must reduce the risk of dislocation compared to SB-THA by at least 62%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed DM-THA was 58% likely to be cost-effective in the base case. Conclusion Treating patients with a displaced femoral neck fracture using DM-THA components may be cost-effective compared to SB-THA in patients aged under 80 years. However, future research will help determine if the modelled rates of adverse events hold true. Surgeons should continue to use clinical judgement and consider individual patients’ physiological age and risk factors for dislocation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(12):1783–1790.

scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness of Peer-Delivered HIV Self-Tests for MSM in Uganda

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Okoboi ◽  
Barbara Castelnuovo ◽  
Jean-Pierre Van Geertruyden ◽  
Oucul Lazarus ◽  
Lung Vu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Hiv Testing ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Standard Of Care ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Self Testing ◽  
The Cost

Introduction: Distribution of HIV self-testing (HIVST) kits through MSM peer networks is a novel and effective strategy to increase HIV testing coverage in this high-risk population. No study has evaluated the cost or cost effectiveness of peer distribution of HIVST strategies among MSM in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods: From June to August 2018, we conducted a pilot study of secondary MSM peer HIVST kit distribution at The AIDS Support Organization at Entebbe and Masaka. We used an ingredients approach to estimate the cost of MSM peer HIVST kit distribution relative to standard-of-care (SOC) hotspot testing using programme expenditure data reported in US dollars. The provider perspective was used to estimate incremental cost-effective ratios per HIV infection averted using the difference in HIV annual transmission rates between MSM with HIV who knew their status and were not virologically suppressed and MSM with HIV who did not know their status.Results: We enrolled 297 participants of whom 150 received MSM peer HIVST kit distribution (intervention group) and 147 received TASO standard of care HIV testing (control group). Provider cost for the intervention was $2,276 compared with $1,827 for SOC during the 3-month study period. Overall, the intervention resulted in higher HIV positivity yield (4.9 vs. 1.4%) and averted more HIV infections per quarter (0.364 vs. 0.104) compared with SOC. The cost per person tested was higher for the intervention compared to SOC ($15.90 vs. $12.40). Importantly, the cost per new HIV diagnosis ($325 vs. $914) and cost per transmission averted ($6,253 vs. $ 17,567) were lower for the intervention approach relative to SOC. The incremental cost per HIV transmission averted by the self-testing program was $1,727. The incremental cost to providers per additional HIV-positive person identified by the intervention was $147.30.Conclusion: The intervention strategy was cost-effective, and identified more undiagnosed HIV infections than SOC hotspot testing at a cost-effectiveness threshold of US $2,129. Secondary distribution of HIVST kits through peers should further be evaluated with longer duration aimed at diagnosing 95% of all persons with HIV by 2030; the first UNAIDS 95-95-95 target.

scholarly journals Quantifying the relationship between lockdowns, mobility, and effective reproduction number (Rt) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Dainton ◽  
Alexander Hay
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Secular Trend ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Greater Toronto Area ◽  
Global Mobility ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background The effectiveness of lockdowns in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 has been the subject of intense debate. Data on the relationship between public health restrictions, mobility, and pandemic growth has so far been conflicting. Objective We assessed the relationship between public health restriction tiers, mobility, and COVID-19 spread in five contiguous public health units (PHUs) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in Ontario, Canada. Methods Weekly effective reproduction number (Rt) was calculated based on daily cases in each of the five GTA public health units between March 1, 2020, and March 19, 2021. A global mobility index (GMI) for each PHU was calculated using Google Mobility data. Segmented regressions were used to assess changes in the behaviour of Rt over time. We calculated Pearson correlation coefficients between GMI and Rt for each PHU and mobility regression coefficients for each mobility variable, accounting for time lag of 0, 7, and 14 days. Results In all PHUs except Toronto, the most rapid decline in Rt occurred in the first 2 weeks of the first province-wide lockdown, and this was followed by a slight trend to increased Rt as restrictions decreased. This trend reversed in all PHUs between September 6th and October 10th after which Rt decreased slightly over time without respect to public health restriction tier. GMI began to increase in the first wave even before restrictions were decreased. This secular trend to increased mobility continued into the summer, driven by increased mobility to recreational spaces. The decline in GMI as restrictions were reintroduced coincides with decreasing mobility to parks after September. During the first wave, the correlation coefficients between global mobility and Rt were significant (p < 0.01) in all PHUs 14 days after lockdown, indicating moderate to high correlation between decreased mobility and decreased viral reproduction rates, and reflecting that the incubation period brings in a time-lag effect of human mobility on Rt. In the second wave, this relationship was attenuated, and was only significant in Toronto and Durham at 14 days after lockdown. Conclusions The association between mobility and COVID-19 spread was stronger in the first wave than the second wave. Public health restriction tiers did not alter the existing secular trend toward decreasing Rt over time.

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