Prioritization of the Target Population for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination Program in Thailand

Thailand was hit by the second wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely migrant-populated province (Samut Sakhon). COVID-19 vaccines were known to be effective; however, the supply was limited. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the effectiveness of Thailand’s COVID-19 vaccination strategy. We obtained most of the data from the Ministry of Public Health. Deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models were utilized. The reproduction number (R) between Thais and migrants was estimated at 1.25 and 2.5, respectively. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent infection was assumed at 50%. In Samut Sakhon, there were 500,000 resident Thais and 360,000 resident migrants. The contribution of migrants to the province’s gross domestic product was estimated at 20%. Different policy scenarios were analyzed. The migrant-centric vaccination policy scenario received the lowest incremental cost per one case or one death averted compared with the other scenarios. The Thai-centric policy scenario yielded an incremental cost of 27,191 Baht per one life saved, while the migrant-centric policy scenario produced a comparable incremental cost of 3782 Baht. Sensitivity analysis also demonstrated that the migrant-centric scenario presented the most cost-effective outcome even when VE diminished to 20%. A migrant-centric policy yielded the smallest volume of cumulative infections and deaths and was the most cost-effective scenario, independent of R and VE values. Further studies should address political feasibility and social acceptability of migrant vaccine prioritization.

Disregarding the restrictive vial-opening policy for BCG vaccine in Guinea-Bissau: impact and cost-effectiveness for tuberculosis mortality and all-cause mortality in children aged 0–4 years

ObjectiveBCG vaccination is frequently delayed in low-income countries. Restrictive vial-opening policies, where a vial of BCG vaccine is not opened for few children, are a major reason for delay. During delays, children are unprotected against tuberculosis (TB) and deprived of non-specific effects of BCG. We assessed the potential effect and cost-effectiveness of disregarding the restrictive vial-opening policy, on TB and all-cause mortality, in children aged 0–4 years in Guinea-Bissau.MethodsUsing static mathematical models, we estimated the absolute and percentage change in TB and all-cause deaths, in children aged 0–4 years, between the current BCG vaccine restrictive-opening policy scenario, and a non-restrictive policy scenario where all children were vaccinated in the first health-facility contact. Incremental cost-effectiveness was estimated by integration of vaccine and treatment costs.FindingsDisregarding the restrictive BCG vial-opening policy was estimated to reduce TB deaths by 11.0% (95% uncertainty range (UR):0.5%–28.8%), corresponding to 4 (UR:0–15) TB deaths averted per birth cohort in Guinea-Bissau, resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness of US$ 911 per discounted life-year gained (LYG) (UR:145–9142). For all-cause deaths, the estimated reduction was 8.1% (UR: 3.3%–12.7%) corresponding to 392 (UR:158–624) fewer all-cause deaths and an incremental cost-effectiveness of US$ 9 (UR:5–23) per discounted LYG.ConclusionsDisregarding the restrictive BCG vial-opening policy was associated with reductions in TB deaths and all-cause deaths and low cost-effectiveness ratios. Our results suggest that it would be cost-effective to disregard the restrictive vial-opening policy. Other settings with similar practice are also likely to gain from disregarding this policy.

Mangrove Forest Restoration by Fisheries Communities in Lampung Bay: A study based on perceptions, willingness to pay, and management strategy

Mangroves provide benefits and various services to local communities living along coastal areas, particularly fishery communities. Fishery community perceptions are significant in determining attitudes towards improving mangrove conditions, which can also be addressed through restoration activities. This research was conducted to analyze fisheries communities perceptions, willingness to pay (WTP) for mangroves restoration, and mangrove forest management strategies. Field surveys were conducted from July-August 2019 and February-March 2020. Primary data were collected from respondents in four regions (Kalianda Regency, South Lampung Regency, Bandar Lampung City, and Pesawaran Regency) in Lampung Province, Indonesia, which consist of fishers, shrimp farmers, crab and wood seekers, and finfish farmers. The respondents were 193 people, and four experts were involved in the policy scenario analysis. Results revealed a gap in the value of WTP among fishery community groups, in which the average value for fishers is lower than shrimp farmers. The years of formal education significantly influenced the WTP for mangrove restoration. Based on the scenario analysis, scenario 01 become a priority strategy, where four policies (P1 = Mangrove ecotourism development in Lampung Bay; P2 = Mangrove knowledge education and training on processing mangrove based products; P3 = Restoration and conservation of mangrove forests; and P4 = Community-based management for mangrove forests utilization) show high likelihoods to be simultaneously implemented for mangroves management, with mangrove ecotourism policy as the most decisive policy. For future research, other explanatory variables can be added, such as information on family member characteristics, and to develop a bottom-up policy scenario by identifying and involving the role of the local community.

Genetically modified food and consumer risk responsibility: The effect of regulatory design and risk type on cognitive information processing

The use of agro-biotechnology has raised consumer concerns about environmental, health, socio-economic and ethical risks. This study examines how regulatory policies regarding genetically modified (GM) food production affect consumers’ cognitive information processing, in terms of perceived risk, self-control, and risk responsibility. There is further analysis of whether the effect of policy design is moderated by risk type. Data was generated in a field experiment (n = 547), including four different policy scenario treatments (banned, research and development, import, and full commercialization). The results reveal that policy scenarios where GM food is available on the market are associated with higher levels of perceived risk and lower levels of self-control compared with policies where GM food is banned. There was no evidence of policy scenarios affecting consumer willingness to assign personal risk responsibility. However, among participants who indicated health risks as their main concern, there was an effect from the policy scenario on self-risk responsibility as mediated through perceived risk and self-control. The results suggest that health-conscious consumers tend to attribute less responsibility to themselves in situations where a genetically modified product was commercialized. These findings indicate a need to clarify guideline recommendations for health-related risks associated with foods derived from biotechnology.

Energy demand analysis of a five star hotel in Nepal- A case study of Bhairahawa, Nepal.

The tourism sector is one of the most vital sectors for economic development. Hotels consumed a bulk amount of energy to satisfy the guest needs. This study to development of energy mix concept in the hotels sector to minimize the crisis of energy in the future determine electrical and thermal energy consumption patterns of a hotel. The low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model was used to analyze energy demand and greenhouse gas emission under different scenarios. The base year for the study was 2019 and the end year up to 2040. It has been estimated that the base year electrical and thermal consumptions were 16.3 Tera joule and 9 tera joule respectively. Energy consumption is expected to be increased from 25.3 tera joule to 65.9 tera joule in 2040 under the business as usual scenario (BAU). In efficient lighting scenario, energy consumption will be 2 tera joule in 2040. In efficient heating ventilation and air conditioning scenario, efficient cooking scenario and steam generation scenario, energy consumption will be 12 tera joule, 6.5 tera joule and 4.2 tera joule in 2040. In the combined policy scenario, energy consumption will be 37.76 tera joule in 2040. Which result saving of 28.14 tera joule as compared to BAU scenario. This study also show the greenhouse gas emission will be 1100 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2040 under business as usual scenario. After the implementation of the efficient system, greenhouse gas emissions will gradually reduce and reach zero in 2035 to 2040. Similarly, per capita greenhouse gases emissions will gradually reduce and reach zero in 2035 to 2040. Thus a large amount of energy can be saved and the large quantity of greenhouse gas emissions can be stopped by applying the combined policy scenario.

The Effectiveness of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures

We develop a semi-structural quantitative framework that combines micro and macroeconomic data to assess the effectiveness of combinations of borrower-based macroprudential measures in Slovakia. We expand on the integrated dynamic household balance sheet model of Gross and Población (2017) by introducing an endogenous loan granting feature, in turn to quantify the potential (ex-ante) impact of macroprudential measures on resilience parameters, compared with a counterfactual no-policy scenario, under adverse macroeconomic conditions. We conclude that (1) borrower-based measures can noticeably improve household and bank resilience to macroeconomic downturns, in particular when multiple measures are applied; (2) those measures tend to complement each other, as the impact of individual instruments is transmitted via different channels; and (3) the resilience benefits are more sizeable if the measures effectively limit the accumulation of risks before an economic downturn occurs, suggesting that an early, preemptive implementation of borrower-based measures is indeed warranted.

The Policy Strategy for Sustainable Capture Fisheries Development

The sustainability of capture fisheries development in Indonesia faces various challenges, such as climate change, pollution, resource degradation, and pressure from fluctuating commodity prices. Furthermore, a policy breakthrough with proper strategy is needed in realizing sustainable capture fisheries development. This study aims to formulate the most appropriate policy from several existed alternative policies to achieve sustainable capture fisheries development. Primary and secondary data are used in this study. A prospective analysis (SMIC-Prob-Expert) approach is used to formulate priority policy scenarios for capture fisheries development in Indonesia. As results, the analysis brings about six main priority alternative policies, namely: (1) increasing utilization of fisheries resources (SDI), (2) increasing capture fisheries productivity, (3) increasing fishermen household income, (4) providing fisheries insurance/social security, (5) improving status utilization of SDI, and (6) increase in the value of capture fisheries non-tax state revenue (PNBP). The analysis shows that policy scenario 01 (111111) or by implementing all alternatives policy simultaneously is the best choice. If the policymakers are faced with options, then the policy scenario becomes the last option to be taken simultaneously is not to choose a policy of providing insurance/social security to fishermen; or in the in this case policy scenario 05 (111011).