scholarly journals High-Temperature Disaster Risk Assessment for Urban Communities: A Case Study in Wuhan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
Zhuoran Shan ◽  
Yuehui An ◽  
L’ei Xu ◽  
Man Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
Urban Communities ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Weight System ◽  
Disaster Assessment ◽  
The Impact

High-temperature risk disaster, a common meteorological disaster, seriously affects people’s productivity, life, and health. However, insufficient attention has been paid to this disaster in urban communities. To assess the risk of high-temperature disasters, this study, using remote sensing data and geographic information data, analyzes 973 communities in downtown Wuhan with the geography-weighted regression method. First, the study evaluates the distribution characteristics of high temperatures in communities and explores the spatial differences of risks. Second, a metrics and weight system is constructed, from which the main factors are determined. Third, a risk assessment model of high-temperature disasters is established from disaster-causing danger, disaster-generating sensitivity, and disaster-bearing vulnerability. The results show that: (a) the significance of the impact of the built environment on high-temperature disasters is obviously different from its coefficient space differentiation; (b) the risk in the old city is high, whereas that in the area around the river is low; and (c) different risk areas should design built environment optimization strategies aimed specifically at the area. The significance of this study is that it develops a high-temperature disaster assessment framework for risk identification, impact differentiation, and difference optimization, and provides theoretical support for urban high-temperature disaster prevention and mitigation.

Leveraging HCA Results in an Advanced Pipeline Risk Assessment Model

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Otto Huisman ◽  
Ricardo Almandoz ◽  
Thomas Schuster ◽  
Adriana Andrade Caballero ◽  
Leonardo Martinez Forero
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
American Petroleum Institute ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
South American ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Industry Standards ◽  
Management Approaches ◽  
American Society ◽  
The Impact

Pipeline risk analysis is a common step carried out by operators in their overall Pipeline Integrity Management Process. There is a growing realization among operators of the need to adopt more proactive risk management approaches. This has brought about increased demand for more quantitative models to support risk reduction decision-making. Consequences of failure are a key component of these models where enhanced quantitative approaches can be deployed. Impacts to the environment and upon populations are key issues which both operators and regulatory bodies seek to minimize. Pipeline risk models and High Consequence Area (HCA) analyses play an increasingly important role in this context by allowing operators to identify a range of potential scenarios and the relative impact to receptors based upon the best available data sources. This paper presents the process and results of an HCA analysis project carried out by ROSEN for a major South American state-owned pipeline operator (hereafter referred to as ‘the Client’). This analysis was implemented using automated GIS processing methods and includes HCA analyses for approximately 2354 km of pipeline. The analysis was based on industry standards for both liquid and gas pipelines (i.e. American Petroleum Institute (API) and American Society of mechanical Engineers (ASME)), but customized for the specific needs of the Client and the South American geographical context. A key use for the results of this analysis is to serve as input for the pipeline risk assessment model jointly developed by ROSEN Integrity Solutions, MACAW Engineering and the Client. The methodology for development of this model is briefly discussed, and operational uses of HCA results are illustrated. The benefits of this project include, but are not limited to, identifying areas that could be severely impacted should a pipeline failure occur, being able to assess the risk profile of credible threats in HCAs, but also being able to prioritize preventative and mitigation measures at HCAs to either reduce the likelihood of failure or the impact of failure upon various receptors.

A Validated Risk Model for Prediction of Early Readmission in Patients with Hepatic Encephalopathy

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 0-10
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Kruger ◽  
Fasika Aberra ◽  
Sylvester M. Black ◽  
Alice Hinton ◽  
James Hanje ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hepatic Encephalopathy ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Early Readmission ◽  
The Impact

Introduction and aim. Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common complication in cirrhotics and is associated with an increased healthcare burden. Our aim was to study independent predictors of 30-day readmission and develop a readmission risk model in patients with HE. Secondary aims included studying readmission rates, cost, and the impact of readmission on mortality. Material and methods. We utilized the 2013 Nationwide Readmission Database (NRD) for hospitalized patients with HE. A risk assessment model based on index hospitalization variables for predicting 30-day readmission was developed using multivariate logistic regression and validated with the 2014 NRD. Patients were stratified into Low Risk and High Risk groups. Cox regression models were fit to identify predictors of calendar-year mortality. Results. Of 24,473 cirrhosis patients hospitalized with HE, 32.4% were readmitted within 30-days. Predictors of readmission included presence of ascites (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.06-1.33), receiving paracentesis (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.26-1.62) and acute kidney injury (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.00-1.22). Our validated model stratified patients into Low Risk and High Risk of 30-day readmissions (29% and 40%, respectively). The cost of the first readmission was higher than index admission in the 30-day readmission cohort ($14,198 vs. $10,386; p-value < 0.001). Thirty-day readmission was the strongest predictor of calendar-year mortality (HR: 4.03; 95% CI: 3.49-4.65). Conclusions. Nearly one-third of patients with HE were readmitted within 30-days, and early readmission adversely impacted healthcare utilization and calendar-year mortality. With our proposed simple risk assessment model, patients at high risk for early readmissions can be identified to potentially avert poor outcomes.

Prevalence of Risk Factors for VTE In Hospitalized Medical and Surgical Patients. Data From the Comparison of Methods for Thromboembolic Risk Assessment with Clinical Perceptions and AwareneSS In Real Life Surgical and Medical Patients (COMPASS) Study

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 3337-3337
Author(s):  
Grigoris T Gerotziafas ◽  
Miltos Chrysanthidis ◽  
Reda Isaad ◽  
Hela Baccouche ◽  
Chrysoula Papageorgiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Gastrointestinal Disease ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Hospitalized Patients ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Medical Patients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Abstract 3337 Introduction: Risk assessment models (RAM) are helpful tools for the screening VTE risk in hospitalized patients. Most of the available RAMs have been constructed on a disease-based or surgery-based approach and include some of the most relevant risk factors for VTE. There is limited information on the impact and importance of individual and comorbidity related risk factors for VTE present during hospitalization on the global VTE risk. Incorporation of the most frequent VTE risk and bleeding risk factors related to comorbidities might improve the ability of RAM to detect real-life patients at risk VTE and to evaluate drawbacks for the application of thromboprophylaxis. Aim of the study: The primary aim of the COMPASS programme was to evaluate the prevalence of the all known VTE and bleeding risk factors reported in the literature in real-life surgical and medical hospitalized patients. Methods: A prospective multicenter cross-sectional observational study was conducted in 6 hospitals in Greece and 1 in France. All inpatients aged >40 years hospitalised for medical diseases and inpatients aged >18 years admitted due to a surgical procedure and hospitalisation for a period exceeding three days were included. Patients and their treating physicians were interviewed with standardised questionnaire including all VTE and bleeding risk factors described in literature (130 items) on the third day of hospitalisation. Patients not giving informed consent, or receiving anticoagulant treatment for any reason or hospitalised in order to undergo diagnostic investigation without any further therapeutic intervention were excluded. Results: A total of 806 patients were enrolled in the study (414 medical and 392 surgical). Most frequent causes of hospitalisation in medical patients were infection (42%), ischemic stroke (14%), cancer (13%), gastrointestinal disease (9%), pulmonary disease (4%), renal disease (3%) and rheumatologic disease (1,4%). Surgical patients were hospitalised for vascular disease (22%) cancer (19,4%) gastrointestinal disease (12,5%), infection (8%), orthopaedic surgery and trauma (14%) or minor surgery (7%). Analysis of the frequency of risk factors for VTE showed that active cancer, recent hospitalisation, venous insufficiency and total bed rest without bathroom privileges were frequent in both groups. Medical patients had significantly more frequently than surgical patients several important predisposing risk factors for VTE. Moreover, medical patient had more frequently than surgical ones bleeding risk factors. The data for the most frequent risk factors are summarised in Table 1. Conclusion: COMPASS is the first registry that provides key data on the prevalence of all known VTE and bleeding risk factors in real life medical and surgical patients hospitalised in two countries of European Union. The analysis of the data shows that in addition to risk stemin from the disease or surgical act both medical and surgical patients share common VTE risk factors. The careful analysis of the most frequent and relevant VTE risk factors will allow the derivation of a practical VTE and bleeding risk assessment model taken into account these factors. Disclosures: Chrysanthidis: Sanofi-Aventis: Employment.

scholarly journals Toolset for financial risk strategic assessment in corporations based on stochastic modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (28) ◽  
pp. 451-464
Author(s):  
Viktoriya Manuylenko ◽  
Denis Ryzin ◽  
Natalia Gryzunova ◽  
Olga Bigday ◽  
Olga Mandrytsa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Financial Leverage ◽  
Financial Risk Management ◽  
Environment Factors ◽  
Target Values ◽  
The Impact

The study substantiates the need to develop and test a model for assessment of strategic financial risk level in corporations. It implies modeling for two indicators: relative (financial leverage) and absolute (external capital of indicators). The model should also take into account influence of emergent environment factors and most stakeholder groups’ interests when building scenarios for their behaviors in the financial markets –Implementation of the model allows establishing financial risk target values considering deviation calculations between the indicators’ modeled and actual values simultaneously determining both tactical and strategic guidelines for Financial Risk Management Policy in corporations, which should involve stakeholders into financial risk-taking process. The model implementation also should be the basis for development and improvement of risk-based forecasting tools, business planning and stress testing. The toolkit for assessing level of current and strategic financial risks in corporations based on simulation modeling was developed and implemented with attraction of general scientific and special methods. Direct results of the study are as follows: in theoretical block of the research – essentially, main attributes of financial risks classification for corporations are identified; they are recognized by time as retrospective, current and strategic financial risks, and correct classification of the latter allows their identification, evaluation and regulation; in practical block of the research – evaluation of financial risk in corporations reveals that the risk apart from other internal factors is highly affected by the level of financial leverage, where its high value increases financial risk; still, corporations do not take into account the influence of environmental factors on its level; the role of tax risk as a part of financial risk is not significant, still it is unfortunate that the Russian legislation system allows double taxation on income tax in the form of dividends, and dividend policy of Russian corporations is unstable; in methodological block of the research –financial risk assessment model for corporations was developed and tested on a platform of a special new software product that determines the target level of financial risk; the model differs from standard approaches to financial risk assessment as it carries strategic forecasting nature and takes into account the impact of emergent environment factors; thus it promotes new areas in strategic financial risk management.

scholarly journals Finding a rIsk assessmeNt moDel for thromboembolic events in hospItalized Cancer pATiEnts: the INDICATE study running title: thromboembolism in hospitalized cancer patients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Nichetti ◽  
Francesca Ligorio ◽  
Giulia Montelatici ◽  
Luca Porcu ◽  
Emma Zattarin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Primary Study ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Thromboembolic Events ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Hospitalized cancer patients are at increased risk for Thromboembolic Events (TEs). As untailored thromboprophylaxis is associated with hemorrhagic complications, the definition of a risk-assessment model (RAM) in this population is needed. Objectives: INDICATE was an observational study enrolling hospitalized cancer patients, with the primary objective of assessing the Negative Predictive Value (NPV) for TEs during hospitalization and within 45 days from discharge of low-grade Khorana Score (KS=0). Secondary objectives were to assess KS Positive Predictive Value (PPV), the impact of TEs on survival and the development of a new RAM. Materials and Methods: Assuming 7% of TEs in KS=0 patients as unsatisfactory percentage and 3% of as satisfactory, 149 patients were needed to detect the favorable NPV with one-sided a= 0.10 and power=0.80. Stepwise logistic regression was adopted to identify variables included in a new RAM.Results: Among 535 enrolled patients, 153 (28.6%) had a KS=0. The primary study objective was met: 29 (5.4%) TEs were diagnosed, with 7 (4.6%) cases in the KS=0 group (NPV=95.4%, 95%CI: 90.8-98.1%; one-sided p=0.084). However, the PPV was low (5.7%, 95%CI: 1.9-12.8%); a new RAM based on albumin (OR 0.34, p=0.003), log(LDH) (OR 1.89, p=0.023) and presence of vascular compression (OR 5.32, p<.001) was developed and internally validated. Also, TEs were associated with poorer OS (median, 5.7 vs 24.8 months, p <.001).Conclusion: INDICATE showed that the KS has a good NPV but poor PPV for TEs in hospitalized cancer patients. A new RAM was developed, and deserves further assessment in external cohorts.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis of the Fine-Scale Heat Wave Risk along the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 12153
Author(s):  
Xin Dai ◽  
Qingsheng Liu ◽  
Chong Huang ◽  
He Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Hazard Exposure

As a highly important meteorological hazard, heat waves notably impact human health and socioeconomics, and accurate heat wave risk identification and assessment are effective ways to address this issue. The current spatial scale of heat wave risk assessment is relatively coarse, hardly meeting fine-scale heat wave risk assessment requirements. Therefore, based on multi-source fine-scale remote sensing data and socioeconomic data, this paper evaluates the heat wave risk along the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, obtains the spatial distribution of heat wave risk in 2005, 2014 and 2019, and analyzes spatiotemporal risk variations over the past 15 years. The results show that most high-risk areas were affected by high-temperature hazards. Over time, the hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk levels increased by 25.82%, 3.31%, 14.82% and 6.97%, respectively, from 2005–2019. Spatially, the higher risk in the northwest is mainly distributed in Jakarta. Additionally, a comparative analysis was conducted on the risk results, and the results showed that the 100-m scale showed more spatial differences than the kilometer scale. The research results in this paper can provide scientific advice on heat wave risk prevention considering the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway construction and regional economic and social development.

Research into behavioral traits of the susceptibility to the risk of significant financial misstatements

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 262-275
Author(s):  
S.V. Arzhenovskii ◽  
T.G. Sinyavskaya ◽  
A.V. Bakhteev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Expert Survey ◽  
Personal Traits ◽  
Behavioral Traits ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The article identifies behavioral signs of the susceptibility to the risk of material misstatements through the expert survey of professional auditors. Objectives. We do empirical research into the impact five behavioral traits have, which we discovered through the two parameter risk assessment model, i.e. tolerance to violation of laws, money pathology, susceptibility to high risk, aspiration of impunity and legislative illiteracy in finance. Method.s We performed the expert survey of professional auditors to discover what determines the susceptibility to fraud among those charged with financial reporting. The expert group was made on the basis of an unbiased approach and documentation. We applied the Rasch model to rank personal traits. The collected data were processed with methods of descriptive statistics and multivariate statistical analysis. Results. Carrying out the statistical analysis of experts’ opinions, we found that their significantly correlated. Personal traits were sorted by their impact on risk assessment. Money pathology, susceptibility to high risk, aspiration of impunity and legislative illiteracy in finance were acknowledged as the most influential factors in terms of the susceptibility to misstatements of financial reporting. Conclusions and Relevance. We empirically proved the importance of factors influencing the propensity to risk of misstating financial reports. We used our own theoretical concept. The findings can be useful to auditing forms to detect the customers’ propensity to the risk of manipulating financial reporting.

The Impact of External Risks on Project Implementation in the Transport Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 796-803
Author(s):  
S. A. Borodulina ◽  
G. A. Kostin ◽  
L. S. Trofimova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Transport Industry ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
External Risk ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

Aim. The presented study aims to examine the elements of assessing projects for the development of the transport sector of the Russian economy in terms of external risk assessment.Tasks. The authors formulate the problem of the relevance of assessing external risks that have a significant impact on the development of the transport industry in the context of a pandemic and describe a risk assessment model through the example of transport infrastructure projects.Methods. The methods of accounting and assessment of risk factors are analyzed. The proposed model is developed based on the use of the fuzzy sets method.Results. The nature and scale of the pandemic’s impact on the major performance indicators of transport industry enterprises and the development of the transport business in 2020-2021 are determined. The impact of restrictive measures on the efficiency of transport companies has been identified and their development has been assessed as part of the implementation of industry-specific development projects. The risks of non-implementation of transport projects are discovered and described through the example of the infrastructure component. The authors focus on the assessment of environmental risks during the implementation of transport projects under unstable conditions. A model for assessing the risks of possible non-implementation of projects based on a variety of risk types and parameters is presented.Conclusions. The results of the study can be used in the justification and selection of transport projects, helping to reduce the share of non-implemented projects under complex dynamic external conditions.

The risk assessment of manufacturing supply chains based on Bayesian networks with uncertainty of demand

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Mengjun Meng ◽  
Qiuyun Lin ◽  
Yingming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Information Sharing ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Uncertain Demand ◽  
Manufacturing Supply Chain

The great changes in the external environment of the manufacturing supply chain make its demand more complex and difficult to control. This paper takes China as an example. According to questionnaire survey and principal component analysis, the risk indicators caused by uncertain demand are screened and classified to construct evaluation system and complete risk identification. The Bayesian network integrating fuzzy set theory and left and right fuzzy ranking is used to explore the relationship between risk indicators and supply chain to achieve risk evaluation. In view of the highest risk factors, an incentive mechanism model based on information sharing is put forward to prove theoretically that information sharing is an important strategy to reduce risk. The results are as follows: The uncertain demand will lead to a high level of risk in China’s manufacturing supply chain, in which the level of information technology is the biggest cause. Only when manufacturing enterprises are willing to share information and other node enterprises join the information sharing team, can demand uncertainty be fundamentally reduced. The proposed risk assessment model realizes the method innovation and theoretical innovation. It can practical and effectively help relevant enterprises to determine and control risks.

Application of Improved Kent’s Pipeline Risk Scoring Method Based on Fuzzy Mathematics in the Risk Assessment of Embedded Petroleum Pipeline

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Ye ◽  
Youran Zhi ◽  
Xuefeng Fang ◽  
Ping Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Fuzzy Mathematics ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Petroleum Pipelines ◽  
The Impact

Numerous risk factors exit in the petroleum transmission process of embedded pipelines. Using scientific risk assessment technology to distinguish various hidden perils of pipeline accidents and the corresponding impacts is of significant value in the risk controlling of embedded petroleum pipelines and thus insure their normal operation. The common used Kent’s scoring method can systematically evaluate the relative risk of pipelines, but it has some shortcomings in reflecting the impact differentiations of various influencing factors on the pipeline risk due to the identical assignment of weights for four categories of factors. In this work, we first systematically make risk identification for the embedded petroleum pipelines and further propose a kind of improved Kent’s scoring method, i.e. the Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (MFCE) method based on the fuzzy mathematics theory, in which the fuzzification between various influencing factors are considered. Using the MFCE method, it is able to make semi-quantitative risk assessment, as well as risk classification and grading for the embedded petroleum pipeline network in a specific urban area. Finally, with the assistance of the Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, the risk evaluation results of the embedded pipelines with the MFCE method can provide scientific aid decision making basis for the early warning of risk and the emergency plan compilation for the pipeline accidents.

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