scholarly journals Are Early Warning Scores Useful Predictors for Mortality and Morbidity in Hospitalised Acutely Unwell Older Patients? A Systematic Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romesh Jayasundera ◽  
Mark Neilly ◽  
Toby Smith ◽  
Phyo Myint
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Early Warning Scores

Background: Early warning scores (EWSs) are used to identify deteriorating patients for appropriate interventions. We performed a systematic review to examine the usefulness of EWSs in predicting inpatient mortality and morbidity (transfer to higher-level care and length of hospital stay) in older people admitted to acute medical units with sepsis, acute cardiovascular events, or pneumonia. Methods: A systematic review of published and unpublished databases was conducted. Cochrane′s tool for assessing Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies—of Interventions (ROBINS-I) was used to appraise the evidence. A narrative synthesis was performed due to substantial heterogeneity. RESULTS: Five studies (n = 12,057) were eligible from 1033 citations. There was an overall “moderate” risk of bias for all studies. The predictive ability of EWSs regarding mortality was reported in one study (n = 274), suggesting EWSs were better at predicting survival, (negative predictive value >90% for all scores). Three studies (n = 1819) demonstrated a significant association between increasing modified EWSs (MEWSs) and increased risk of mortality. Hazards ratios for a composite death/intensive care (ICU) admission with MEWSs ≥5 were significant in one study (p = 0.003). Two studies (n = 1421) demonstrated that a MEWS ≥6 was associated with 21 times higher probability of mortality (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.71–170.57) compared with a MEWS ≤1. A MEWS of ≥5 was associated with 22 times higher probability of mortality (95% CI: 10.45–49.16). Conclusion: Increasing EWSs are strongly associated with mortality and ICU admission in older acutely unwell patients. Future research should be targeted at better understanding the usefulness of high and increasing EWSs for specific acute illnesses in older adults.

scholarly journals Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: a systematic review protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. e019268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Gerry ◽  
Jacqueline Birks ◽  
Timothy Bonnici ◽  
Peter J Watkinson ◽  
Shona Kirtley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Early Warning Scores ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Adult Hospital

IntroductionEarly warning scores (EWSs) are used extensively to identify patients at risk of deterioration in hospital. Previous systematic reviews suggest that studies which develop EWSs suffer methodological shortcomings and consequently may fail to perform well. The reviews have also identified that few validation studies exist to test whether the scores work in other settings. We will aim to systematically review papers describing the development or validation of EWSs, focusing on methodology, generalisability and reporting.MethodsWe will identify studies that describe the development or validation of EWSs for adult hospital inpatients. Each study will be assessed for risk of bias using the Prediction model Risk of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Two reviewers will independently extract information. A narrative synthesis and descriptive statistics will be used to answer the main aims of the study which are to assess and critically appraise the methodological quality of the EWS, to describe the predictors included in the EWSs and to describe the reported performance of EWSs in external validation.Ethics and disseminationThis systematic review will only investigate published studies and therefore will not directly involve patient data. The review will help to establish whether EWSs are fit for purpose and make recommendations to improve the quality of future research in this area.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42017053324.

Determination of the best early warning scores to predict clinical outcomes of patients in emergency department

2019 ◽  
pp. emermed-2019-208622 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Spencer ◽  
Jesse Smith ◽  
Patrick Date ◽  
Erik de Tonnerre ◽  
David McDonald Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
Clinical Deterioration ◽  
Inhospital Mortality ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Early Warning Scores

ObjectiveEarly warning scores (EWS) are used to predict patient outcomes. We aimed to determine which of 13 EWS, based largely on emergency department (ED) vital sign data, best predict important clinical outcomes.MethodWe undertook a prospective cohort study in a metropolitan, tertiary-referral ED in Melbourne, Australia (February–April 2018). Patient demographics, vital signs and management data were collected while the patients were in the ED and EWS were calculated using each EWS criteria. Outcome data were extracted from the medical record (2-day, 7-day and 28-day inhospital mortality, clinical deterioration within 2 days, intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 2 days, admission to hospital). Area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC; 95% CIs) curves were used to evaluate the predictive ability of each EWS for each outcome.ResultsOf 1730 patients enrolled, 690 patients were admitted to the study hospital. Most EWS were good or excellent predictors of 2-day mortality. When considering the point estimates, the VitalPac EWS was the most strongly predictive (AUROC: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.92 to 0.99). However, when considering the 95% CIs, there was no significant difference between the highest performing EWS. The predictive ability for 7-day and 28-day mortality was generally less. No EWS was a good predictor for clinical deterioration (AUROC range: 0.54–0.70), ICU admission (range: 0.51–0.72) or admission to hospital (range: 0.51–0.68).ConclusionSeveral EWS have excellent predictive ability for 2-day mortality and have the potential to risk stratify patients in ED. No EWS adequately predicted clinical deterioration, admission to either ICU or the hospital.

scholarly journals Effect of timing of intubation on clinical outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of non-randomized cohort studies

Critical Care ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni Papoutsi ◽  
Vassilis G. Giannakoulis ◽  
Eleni Xourgia ◽  
Christina Routsi ◽  
Anastasia Kotanidou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Detectable Difference

Abstract Background Although several international guidelines recommend early over late intubation of patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), this issue is still controversial. We aimed to investigate the effect (if any) of timing of intubation on clinical outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19 by carrying out a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods PubMed and Scopus were systematically searched, while references and preprint servers were explored, for relevant articles up to December 26, 2020, to identify studies which reported on mortality and/or morbidity of patients with COVID-19 undergoing early versus late intubation. “Early” was defined as intubation within 24 h from intensive care unit (ICU) admission, while “late” as intubation at any time after 24 h of ICU admission. All-cause mortality and duration of mechanical ventilation (MV) were the primary outcomes of the meta-analysis. Pooled risk ratio (RR), pooled mean difference (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random effects model. The meta-analysis was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020222147). Results A total of 12 studies, involving 8944 critically ill patients with COVID-19, were included. There was no statistically detectable difference on all-cause mortality between patients undergoing early versus late intubation (3981 deaths; 45.4% versus 39.1%; RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.99–1.15, p = 0.08). This was also the case for duration of MV (1892 patients; MD − 0.58 days, 95% CI − 3.06 to 1.89 days, p = 0.65). In a sensitivity analysis using an alternate definition of early/late intubation, intubation without versus with a prior trial of high-flow nasal cannula or noninvasive mechanical ventilation was still not associated with a statistically detectable difference on all-cause mortality (1128 deaths; 48.9% versus 42.5%; RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.99–1.25, p = 0.08). Conclusions The synthesized evidence suggests that timing of intubation may have no effect on mortality and morbidity of critically ill patients with COVID-19. These results might justify a wait-and-see approach, which may lead to fewer intubations. Relevant guidelines may therefore need to be updated.

scholarly journals Tri-Response Police, Ambulance, Mental Health Crisis Models in Reducing Involuntary Detentions of Mentally Ill People: Protocol for a Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 8230
Author(s):  
Julia Heffernan ◽  
Ewan McDonald ◽  
Elizabeth Hughes ◽  
Richard Gray
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Public Health Practice ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Mental Health Crisis ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Response Models

Police, ambulance and mental health tri-response services are a relatively new model of responding to people experiencing mental health crisis in the community, but limited evidence exists examining their efficacy. To date there have been no systematic reviews that have examined the association between the tri-response model and rates of involuntary detentions. A systematic review examining co-response models demonstrated possible reduction in involuntary detention, however, recommended further research. The aim of this protocol is to describe how we will systematically review the evidence base around the relationship of the police, ambulance mental health tri-response models in reducing involuntary detentions. We will search health, policing and grey literature databases and include clinical evaluations of any design. Risk of bias will be determined using the Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment Tool and a narrative synthesis will be undertaken to synthesis key themes. Risk of bias and extracted data will be summarized in tables and results synthesis tabulated to identify patterns within the included studies. The findings will inform future research into the effectiveness of tri-response police, ambulance, and mental health models in reducing involuntary detentions.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 infection in acute pancreatitis increases disease severity and 30-day mortality: COVID PAN collaborative study

Gut ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. gutjnl-2020-323364
Author(s):  
Sanjay Pandanaboyana ◽  
John Moir ◽  
John S Leeds ◽  
Kofi Oppong ◽  
Aditya Kanwar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Hospital Stay ◽  
Organ Failure ◽  
Collaborative Study ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Local Complications ◽  
Persistent Organ Failure ◽  
Increased Risk

ObjectiveThere is emerging evidence that the pancreas may be a target organ of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This aim of this study was to investigate the outcome of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and coexistent SARS-CoV-2 infection.DesignA prospective international multicentre cohort study including consecutive patients admitted with AP during the current pandemic was undertaken. Primary outcome measure was severity of AP. Secondary outcome measures were aetiology of AP, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, length of hospital stay, local complications, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), persistent organ failure and 30-day mortality. Multilevel logistic regression was used to compare the two groups.Results1777 patients with AP were included during the study period from 1 March to 23 July 2020. 149 patients (8.3%) had concomitant SARS-CoV-2 infection. Overall, SARS-CoV-2-positive patients were older male patients and more likely to develop severe AP and ARDS (p<0.001). Unadjusted analysis showed that SARS-CoV-2-positive patients with AP were more likely to require ICU admission (OR 5.21, p<0.001), local complications (OR 2.91, p<0.001), persistent organ failure (OR 7.32, p<0.001), prolonged hospital stay (OR 1.89, p<0.001) and a higher 30-day mortality (OR 6.56, p<0.001). Adjusted analysis showed length of stay (OR 1.32, p<0.001), persistent organ failure (OR 2.77, p<0.003) and 30-day mortality (OR 2.41, p<0.04) were significantly higher in SARS-CoV-2 co-infection.ConclusionPatients with AP and coexistent SARS-CoV-2 infection are at increased risk of severe AP, worse clinical outcomes, prolonged length of hospital stay and high 30-day mortality.

scholarly journals The incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in gout: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Cox ◽  
Sonal Gupta ◽  
Sizheng Steven Zhao ◽  
David M. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractThe aims of this systematic review and meta-analysis were to describe prevalence of cardiovascular disease in gout, compare these results with non-gout controls and consider whether there were differences according to geography. PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science were systematically searched for studies reporting prevalence of any cardiovascular disease in a gout population. Studies with non-representative sampling, where a cohort had been used in another study, small sample size (< 100) and where gout could not be distinguished from other rheumatic conditions were excluded, as were reviews, editorials and comments. Where possible meta-analysis was performed using random-effect models. Twenty-six studies comprising 949,773 gout patients were included in the review. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated for five cardiovascular diseases: myocardial infarction (2.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI)s 1.6, 5.0), heart failure (8.7%; 95% CI 2.9, 23.8), venous thromboembolism (2.1%; 95% CI 1.2, 3.4), cerebrovascular accident (4.3%; 95% CI 1.8, 9.7) and hypertension (63.9%; 95% CI 24.5, 90.6). Sixteen studies reported comparisons with non-gout controls, illustrating an increased risk in the gout group across all cardiovascular diseases. There were no identifiable reliable patterns when analysing the results by country. Cardiovascular diseases are more prevalent in patients with gout and should prompt vigilance from clinicians to the need to assess and stratify cardiovascular risk. Future research is needed to investigate the link between gout, hyperuricaemia and increased cardiovascular risk and also to establish a more thorough picture of prevalence for less common cardiovascular diseases.

scholarly journals Nocturnal digital surveillance in aged populations and its effects on health, welfare and social care provision: a systematic review

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt X. Richardson ◽  
Maria Ehn ◽  
Sara Landerdahl Stridsberg ◽  
Ken Redekop ◽  
Sarah Wamala-Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Standard Care ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Care Quality ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Care Provision ◽  
Digital Surveillance

Abstract Background Nocturnal digital surveillance technologies are being widely implemented as interventions for remotely monitoring elderly populations, and often replace person-based surveillance. Such interventions are often placed in care institutions or in the home, and monitored by qualified personnel or relatives, enabling more rapid and/or frequent assessment of the individual’s need for assistance than through on-location visits. This systematic review summarized the effects of these surveillance technologies on health, welfare and social care provision outcomes in populations ≥ 50 years, compared to standard care. Method Primary studies published 2005–2020 that assessed these technologies were identified in 11 databases of peer-reviewed literature and numerous grey literature sources. Initial screening, full-text screening, and citation searching steps yielded the studies included in the review. The Risk of Bias and ROBINS-I tools were used for quality assessment of the included studies. Result Five studies out of 744 identified records met inclusion criteria. Health-related outcomes (e.g. accidents, 2 studies) and social care outcomes (e.g. staff burden, 4 studies) did not differ between interventions and standard care. Quality of life and affect showed improvement (1 study each), as did economic outcomes (1 study). The quality of studies was low however, with all studies possessing a high to critical risk of bias. Conclusions We found little evidence for the benefit of nocturnal digital surveillance interventions as compared to standard care in several key outcomes. Higher quality intervention studies should be prioritized in future research to provide more reliable evidence.

scholarly journals What is the impact of multimorbidity on the risk of hospitalisation in older adults? A systematic review study protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. e049974
Author(s):  
Luciana Pereira Rodrigues ◽  
Andréa Toledo de Oliveira Rezende ◽  
Letícia de Almeida Nogueira e Moura ◽  
Bruno Pereira Nunes ◽  
Matias Noll ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Study Protocol ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Review Study ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionThe development of multiple coexisting chronic diseases (multimorbidity) is increasing globally, along with the percentage of older adults affected by it. Multimorbidity is associated with the concomitant use of multiple medications, a greater possibility of adverse effects, and increased risk of hospitalisation. Therefore, this systematic review study protocol aims to analyse the impact of multimorbidity on the occurrence of hospitalisation in older adults and assess whether this impact changes according to factors such as sex, age, institutionalisation and socioeconomic status. This study will also review the average length of hospital stay and the occurrence of hospital readmission.Methods and analysisA systematic review of the literature will be carried out using the PubMed, Embase and Scopus databases. The inclusion criteria will incorporate cross-sectional, cohort and case–control studies that analysed the association between multimorbidity (defined as the presence of ≥2 and/or ≥3 chronic conditions and complex multimorbidity) and hospitalisation (yes/no, days of hospitalisation and number of readmissions) in older adults (aged ≥60 years or >65 years). Effect measures will be quantified, including ORs, prevalence ratios, HRs and relative risk, along with their associated 95% CI. The overall aim of this study is to widen knowledge and to raise reflections about the association between multimorbidity and hospitalisation in older adults. Ultimately, its findings may contribute to improvements in public health policies resulting in cost reductions across healthcare systems.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval is not required. The results will be disseminated via submission for publication to a peer-reviewed journal when complete.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021229328.

scholarly journals Deep learning for pulmonary embolism detection on computed tomography pulmonary angiogram: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shelly Soffer ◽  
Eyal Klang ◽  
Orit Shimon ◽  
Yiftach Barash ◽  
Noa Cahan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Summary Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Pulmonary Angiogram

AbstractComputed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) is the gold standard for pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis. However, this diagnosis is susceptible to misdiagnosis. In this study, we aimed to perform a systematic review of current literature applying deep learning for the diagnosis of PE on CTPA. MEDLINE/PUBMED were searched for studies that reported on the accuracy of deep learning algorithms for PE on CTPA. The risk of bias was evaluated using the QUADAS-2 tool. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted. Seven studies met our inclusion criteria. A total of 36,847 CTPA studies were analyzed. All studies were retrospective. Five studies provided enough data to calculate summary estimates. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for PE detection were 0.88 (95% CI 0.803–0.927) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.756–0.924), respectively. Most studies had a high risk of bias. Our study suggests that deep learning models can detect PE on CTPA with satisfactory sensitivity and an acceptable number of false positive cases. Yet, these are only preliminary retrospective works, indicating the need for future research to determine the clinical impact of automated PE detection on patient care. Deep learning models are gradually being implemented in hospital systems, and it is important to understand the strengths and limitations of these algorithms.

The Use of Prognostic Prediction Models for Mortality or Clinical Deterioration among Hospitalized and Non-hospitalized Adults with COVID-19: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Pauline M. Remalante-Rayco ◽  
Evelyn Osio-Salido
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Clinical Deterioration ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Prediction Of Mortality

Objective. To assess the performance of prognostic models in predicting mortality or clinical deterioration among patients with COVID-19, both hospitalized and non-hospitalized Methods. We conducted a systematic review of the literature until March 8, 2021. We included models for the prediction of mortality or clinical deterioration in COVID-19 with external validation. We used the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and the GRADEpro Guideline Development Tool (GDT) to assess the evidence obtained. Results. We reviewed 33 cohort studies. Two studies had a low risk of bias, four unclear risks, and 27 with a high risk of bias due to participant selection and analysis. For the outcome of mortality, the QCOVID model had excellent prediction with high certainty of evidence but was specific for use in England. The COVID Outcome Prediction in the Emergency Department (COPE) model, the 4C Mortality Score, the Age, BUN, number of comorbidities, CRP, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, heart rate (ABC2-SPH) risk score, the Confusion Urea Respiration Blood Pressure (CURB-65) severity score, the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and the Risk Stratification in the Emergency Department in Acutely Ill Older Patients (RISE UP) score had fair to good prediction of death among inpatients, while the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score had poor to fair prediction. The certainty of evidence for these models was very low to low. For the outcome of clinical deterioration, the 4C Deterioration Score had fair prediction, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) score poor to good, and the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) had poor prediction. The certainty of evidence for these three models was also very low to low. None of these models had been validated in the Philippine setting. Conclusion. The QCOVID, COPE, ABC2-SPH, 4C, CURB-65, REMS, RISE-UP models for prediction of mortality and the 4C Deterioration and NEWS2 models for prediction of clinical deterioration are potentially useful but need to be validated among patients with COVID-19 of varying severity in the Philippine setting.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document