scholarly journals Accuracy of European Stock Target Prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Joana Almeida ◽  
Raquel M. Gaspar
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Accuracy Analysis ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Comparative Accuracy ◽  
European Stock Markets ◽  
The Relationship

Equity studies are conducted by professionals, who also provide buy/hold/sell recommendations to investors. Nowadays, target prices determined by financial analysts are publicly available to investors, who may decide to use them for investment purposes. Studying the accuracy of such analysts’ forecasts is, thus, of paramount importance. Based upon empirical data on 50 of the biggest (larger capitalisation) European stocks over a 15-year period, from 2004 to 2019, and using a panel data approach, this is the first study looking at overall accuracy in European stock markets. We find that Bloomberg’s 12-month consensus target prices have no predictive power over future market prices. Our panel results are robust to company fixed effects and subperiod analysis. These results are in line with the (mostly US-based) evidence in the literature. Extending common practice, we perform a comparative accuracy analysis, comparing the accuracy of target prices with that of simple capitalisations of current prices. It turns out target prices are not better at forecasting than simple capitalisations. When considering individual regressions, accuracy is still very low, but it varies considerably across stocks. By also analysing the relationship between both measures—target prices and capitalised prices—we find evidence that, for some stocks, capitalised prices partially explain how target prices are determined.

scholarly journals Determinants of the Solvency of Insurance Companies in Palestine

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Yousef Abdel Latif Abdel Jawad ◽  
Issam Ayyash
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

The study aimed to investigate the factors that affect the solvency of the insurance companies in Palestine and to highlight the nature and strength of the relationship between liquidity, investment, leverage, claims and the solvency of the insurance companies in Palestine.To achieve the objectives of the study, the descriptive and quantitative analysis methods were used in the study. Based on the data of the financial statements of seven insurance companies (out of 9 companies) and by using regression of fixed effects of panel data for 2010-2017, the study found that the claims have a positive effect on the financial solvency and leverage has a negative effect on the solvency of insurance companies in Palestine, while investment and liquidity have an insignificant effect on financial solvency.

scholarly journals Mastering Panel Metrics: Causal Impact of Democracy on Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 77-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuowen Chen ◽  
Victor Chernozhukov ◽  
Iván Fernández-Val
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Statistical Inference ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Relationship

We revisit the panel data analysis of Acemoglu et al. (forthcoming) on the relationship between democracy and economic growth using state-of-the-art econometric methods. We argue that panel data settings are high-dimensional, resulting in estimators to be biased to a degree that invalidates statistical inference. We remove these biases by using simple analytical and sample-splitting methods, and thereby restore valid statistical inference. We find that debiased fixed effects and Arellano-Bond estimators produce higher estimates of the long-run effect of democracy on growth, providing even stronger support for the key hypothesis of Acemoglu et al.

scholarly journals Board of Directors’ Size and Firm Performance: Evidence from Non-Financial French Firms Listed on CAC 40

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 46-61
Author(s):  
Hemza Boussenna
Keyword(s):  
Firm Performance ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Board Of Directors ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Optimal Number ◽  
Board Size ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractThe study aims to investigate the relationship between board size and firm’s performance for a sample of non-financial French firms listed on the CAC 40 between 2005 and 2017. We estimated the firm’s performance using two types of metrics, the accounting-based measures (ROA and ROE) and the market-based measures (Tobin Q and MTB). By applying the panel data regressions (fixed-effects and random-effects), the findings show that there is a positive effect of board size on firm performance. In addition, our results show that the optimal number of the board size should be between 13 and 17 members in order to achieve good performance for non-financial French firms.

scholarly journals Financial development and economic growth in the CEPGL region: evidence based on panel data

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Nyamugira Biringanine ◽  
Kazamwali Mzee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This paper contributes to the huge debate on the relationship between financial development and the economic growth. The evidence is applied to the CEPGL (Communauté Economique des Pays des Grands Lacs) region. Previous studies have concluded either to the absence of connection between the two spheres, to a unidirectional or bidirectional relationship, or to a differentiated connection depending on the economic status of development of the country. The research design applied in this research has been inspired by the reality of the region by running an Error Correction Model for each country and a fixed effects model on panel data for the whole region. Therefore, we estimated econometric models from a series of macroeconomic data relating to the depth, and the accessibility of the financial system. The data used in this study range from 1976 to 2013. Insights from this study show that the financial system of the region is extremely underdeveloped, a weak connection between the financial and the economic sphere, in addition to an ambivalent sense of causality. 

scholarly journals Effect of Income Inequality on Health Status in a Selection of Middle and Low Income Countries

Equilibrium ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 133-152
Author(s):  
Elnaz Hajebi ◽  
Mohammad Javad Razmi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between the public health status and income inequality has been taken into consideration in the last two decades. One of the important questions in this regard is that whether the changes in income inequality will lead to changes in health indicators or not. To answer this question, life expectancy is used as a health indicator and the Gini coefficient is used as an income inequality indicator. In this study, the relationship between income inequality and the public health has been investigated by panel data in Eviews software during 2000–2011 in 65 low-and middle-income countries. By using panel data and considering fixed effects and heterogeneity of sections, the relationship between income inequality and public health status is a significant negative relationship.

Social Factors Associated with the Decline in Caries in Brazilian Children between 1996 and 2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 551-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli ◽  
Aubrey Sheiham ◽  
Georgios Tsakos ◽  
Georgia Costa de Araújo-Souza ◽  
Richard G. Watt
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Dental Caries ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Brazilian Children

Dental caries levels have declined in children since the 1970s in many countries. Most of the postulated main reasons for the decline are speculative and have not been rigorously evaluated. The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between some social factors and the decline in dental caries in Brazilian 12-year-old children from 1996 to 2010. Secondary analysis of national data was performed in 27 Brazilian state capitals. A panel data regression model with fixed effects and multiple linear regression were used to verify the relationship between the explanatory and the dependent variables and also the time-trend effect. The results showed that the DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth) decreased by about 3% per year, and the percentage of caries-free children increased by 4.5% per year. For DMFT and percentage caries free, the results for the panel data regression showed a significant association for the Human Development Index (HDI) in the adjusted model (p = 0.010). When the overall changes over time were compared, the Gini index had a significant association with the overall change in DMFT in the final model of the multiple regression analysis (p = 0.033). Our results indicate that the maintenance of good levels of human development, which includes better education, income, and longevity, are important factors relating to improving levels of oral health in 12-year-old Brazilian children. However, to accelerate this process in cities with the worst caries situation, income inequality should be tackled.

scholarly journals Internal and external determinants of Iraqi bank profitability

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Mohsin Jadah ◽  
Manar Hayder Ali Alghanimi ◽  
Noor Sabah Hameed Al-Dahaan ◽  
Noor Hashim Mohammed Al-Husainy
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Relationship

The determinants of bank profitability are very important, as bank profitability significantly affects the economies of countries. This study aims to examine the internal determinants (bank-specific characteristics) and external determinants (macroeconomic factors and government variables) of bank profitability in Iraq. The study uses unbalanced panel data from 18 banks in Iraq for thirteen years, from 2005 to 2017. The relationship is estimated using a fixed effects approach. The study selected 18 conventional banks considering their data availability in the period from 2005 to 2017. Based on the panel data method, the results show that bank size, the equity to total assets and total loans to total assets ratios, GDP growth, and government effectiveness have a significant and positive impact on the profitability of Iraqi banks. Meanwhile, credit risk, inflation, interest rate, unemployment, and political instability have a significant negative influence on bank profitability. To the authors’ knowledge, this study is considered one of the earliest studies of its kind, in which the main factors affecting Iraqi bank profitability are determined. That said, this paper makes a significant contribution to the theoretical literature, the industry, and policymakers, so that the performance of Iraqi conventional banks can be improved. Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge the support from Ministry of Higher Education in Iraq, University of Kerbala, AL-Furat AL-Awsat Technical University, and Imam AL-Kadhum College for Islamic Studies. Furthermore, we appreciate the support by Prof. Dr. Sivarajasingham Selliah, Assistant Prof. Dr. Muhammad Abrar Ul Haq, and Dr. Mohammed Hasan.

scholarly journals The Effect of Capital Structure on Profitability: An Empirical Panel Data Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narinder Pal Singh ◽  
Mahima Bagga
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Relationship

One of the most perplexing issues faced by finance managers is to know about the effect of capital structure on the profitability of firm. Many studies have been carried out to examine the effect of capital structure on the profitability of firms, but most of them belong to other parts of the world, and only few studies have been conducted in India. Thus, the present study has been undertaken to evaluate the effect of capital structure on the profitability of Nifty 50 companies listed on National Stock Exchange of India from 2008 – 2017. The data has been analyzed by using descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple panel data regression models. Four different regression models have been used to study the relationship between capital structure and profitability. In these models, we study the individual effect of total debt and total equity ratios on profitability, that is, ROA and ROE. All four models have been tested with pooled OLS, fixed effects, and random effects. We conclude that there is significant positive impact of capital structure on firm’s profitability.

Spatial Analysis of the Relationship Between Income and Consumption of the Population Based on Panel Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-139
Author(s):  
I. A. Lakman ◽  
V. M. Timiryanova ◽  
D. V. Popov
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Spatial Error ◽  
Spatial Dependencies ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The article presents results of a study on influence of population dynamics, regional characteristics and the type structure of income on consumption. The ability to investigate spatial dependencies and territorial effects over time was made possible by autoregression spatial models built on panel data. The article describes features of such models, sequence of calculations, and also presents modified tests to justify the choice of the model specification.Calculations were made using data from 83 constituent entities of the Russian Federation (cross-sectional observations) for 2010–2019 (10 time periods). The analysis showed that both population income and retail turnover, which largely determine the level and structure of population consumption, have spatial dependencies. The built spatial error model with fixed effects showed a positive influence on population consumption in the neighboring territories. The model also confirmed previously identified relationships: the positive impact of average per capita income and the negative impact of the Gini index on consumption. The built model with fixed effects allowed to isolate the individual effects of the territories, visualized using cartogram. On the basis of these assessments, several groups of territories with common properties and characteristics have been identified.Unlike previously built models, the authors’ spatial error autoregression model, built on panel data, took into account both the geographical heterogeneity and spatial dependence of average per capita income and retail turnover, expanding the existing understanding of the relationship between consumption and income. This, in turn, enables management decisions that take into account previously undetected features and enhance their validity.

scholarly journals The impact of technological innovation on carbon emissions

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 02039
Author(s):  
Jing Niu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Fixed Effects Models ◽  
Low Carbon Technologies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Environmental problems caused by carbon emissions have received widespread attention, and technological innovation has an important impact on carbon emissions. This paper uses data from 30 provinces (excluding Tibet) in China from 2009 to 2018 as a sample, and empirically analyzes the relationship between technological innovation and carbon emissions by constructing panel data and fixed effects models. The results show that technological innovation can curb carbon emissions. Therefore, China should increase research and application of low-carbon technologies to promote sustainable economic development.

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