Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru Landscape (Democratic Republic of the Congo)

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. The importance of this article is to provide useful information for those who wish to discuss a model that can be replicated for other territories affected by deforestation and changes in natural and anthropogenic forest structure. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003–2010–2014–2016). The scenarios were designed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios: business as-usual (BAU), rapid economic growth (REG) and sustainable management of the environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

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Historical Changes and Future Trajectories of Deforestation in the Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (Democratic Republic of Congo)

10.20944/preprints202103.0461.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joël Masimo Kabuanga ◽

Onésime Mubenga Kakonda ◽

Medhi Saquali ◽

Nicolas Maetripieri ◽

Jean-Pierre Mate Mweru ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Management ◽

Democratic Republic ◽

Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽

Forest Degradation ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Current Trends ◽

Rapid Economic Growth ◽

Dinamica Ego ◽

Diachronic Analysis ◽

Business As Usual

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003-2010-2014-2016). The scenarios were de-signed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (REG) and Sustainable Management of the Environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+ 84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

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Modelisation Des Changements D’occupation Des Terres En Region Soudanienne Au Nord-Ouest Du Benin

European Scientific Journal ESJ ◽

10.19044/esj.2018.v14n12p248 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 14 (12) ◽

pp. 248

Author(s):

Agbanou Thierry ◽

Paegelow Martin ◽

Toko Imorou Ismaïla ◽

Tente Brice

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Environmental Sustainability ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Economic Data ◽

Plant Resources ◽

Land Occupation ◽

North West ◽

Current Trends ◽

Rapid Economic Growth ◽

Business As Usual

In north-west Benin, land occupation is undergoing a significant dynamic due to intense human activities putting the ecosystem in precarious balance. The objective of this study is to quantify landscape dynamics and explore possible futures of land use using remote sensing, GIS and spatiotemporal modelling tools. Landsat socio-economic data and images (1987, 2000 and 2016) were used. A multi-date classification was used to quantify changes in land use. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) of the Terrset software was used to simulate and project land use to 2031. The results show that between 1987 and 2016, the landscape initially dominated by open wooded forests and savannahs (38,8 %) and wooded and shrubby savannahs (25,8 %) in 1987 was replaced in 2016 by land use categories including wooded and shrubby savannahs (40,5 %) and crop and fallow mosaics (50,6 %). The three scenarios Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (CER) and Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CED), extrapolating the current trends, show that by 2031 this landscape will be dominated by crop and fallow mosaics (+ 50 %). Wood resources occupy 26 % of the area of the sector in the CED scenario, 23 % in the BAU scenario and 19% in the CER scenario. The CED scenario gives hope that the restoration and preservation of plant resources is still possible if decision-makers become aware of it.

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Enhancing REDD+ Outcomes through Improved Governance of Community Forest Groups

Journal of Forest and Livelihood ◽

10.3126/jfl.v11i2.8618 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 14-26 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Bishnu Hari Poudyal ◽

Govinda Paudel ◽

Harisharan Luintel

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Management ◽

Community Forestry ◽

Forest Degradation ◽

Governance Structure ◽

Forest Governance ◽

Community Forest ◽

Crucial Issue ◽

Grassroots Level ◽

External Intervention ◽

Forest User

Since forests are both source and sink of carbon, scholars have suggested reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, including conservation and sustainable management of forest and enhancement of forest carbon stock (REDD+) to be part of climate negotiation. Studies have shown that forests can play a role in reducing emissions in a cheaper, quicker and effective way, while generating important co-benefits, including biodiversity conservation and watershed management. However, governance that shapes relations between different stakeholders at grassroots level has been shown to be a crucial issue in managing local forests in a way that sequester more carbon from, and emit less of it to, the atmosphere. The authors of this paper argue that the lessons gained at community forest user group (CFUG) level regarding forest governance could be useful in designing a REDD+ governance structure at grassroots level. For this, both positive lessons and challenges faced so far could be documented, analyzed, synthesized and shared at broader level. REDD+, being an external intervention to local communities, can bring a range of challenges that influence the governance dynamics. However, if the programme is managed carefully, CFUGs are capacitated adequately and governed collaboratively, REDD+ may bring synergistic outcomes with existing community forestry at grassroots level, particularly by bringing both environmental and livelihood benefits.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jfl.v11i2.8618 Journal of Forestry and Livelihood Vol.11(2) 2013 14-26

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Hospital admissions for respiratory tract infections in children aged 0-5 years for 2017/2023

10.1101/2021.11.22.21266564 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Fredrik Methi ◽

Ketil Størdal ◽

Kjetil Elias Telle ◽

Vilde Bergstad Larsen ◽

Karin Magnusson

Keyword(s):

Respiratory Tract ◽

Respiratory Tract Infections ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Respiratory Support ◽

Pediatric Hospital ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Syncytial Virus ◽

Tract Infections ◽

Business As Usual ◽

Hospital Wards

Background: To compare hospital admissions across common respiratory tract infections (RTI) in 2017-21, and project possible hospital admissions for the RTIs among children aged 0-12 months and 1-5 years in 2022 and 2023. Methods: In 644 885 children aged 0-12 months and 1-5 years, we plotted the observed monthly number of RTI admissions (upper- and lower RTI, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and COVID-19) from January 1st, 2017 until October 31st, 2021. We also plotted the number of RTI admissions with a need for respiratory support. We used the observed data to project four different scenarios of RTI admissions in 2022 and 2023, with different impacts on hospital wards: 1) ″Business as usual″, 2) ″Continuous lockdown″, 3) ″Children′s immunity debt″, and 4) ″Maternal and child immunity debt″. Results: By October 31st, 2021, the number of simultaneous RTI admissions had exceeded the numbers usually observed at the typical season peak in January, i.e. ~900. Based on our observed data and assuming that children and their mothers (who transfer antibodies to the very youngest) have not been exposed to RTI over the last one and a half years, our scenarios suggest that hospitals should be prepared to handle two to three times as many RTI admissions, and two to three times as many RTI admissions requiring respiratory support among 0-5-year-olds as normal, from November 2021 to April 2022. Conclusion: Scenarios with immunity debt suggest that pediatric hospital wards and policy makers should plan for extended capacity.

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Tobacco control and Healthy China 2030

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054372 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 28 (4) ◽

pp. 409-413 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Mark Goodchild ◽

Rong Zheng

Keyword(s):

Tobacco Control ◽

Control Measures ◽

Smoking Rate ◽

Policy Makers ◽

The Real ◽

The Third ◽

Full Implementation ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Real Price ◽

Business As Usual

BackgroundThe Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China’s policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030.MethodsFirst, a ‘business as usual’ scenario for China’s cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030.FindingsUnder the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition, real excise revenue from cigarettes increases by 21% (−3%~47%) compared with 2016.ConclusionSignificantly higher tobacco taxes will be needed to achieve Healthy China 2030 target for reduced smoking even after the implementation of other tobacco control measures.

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The Role of the Black Sea Commission in the Sustainable Management of the Marine Living Resources

Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies - Progressive Engineering Practices in Marine Resource Management ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-8333-4.ch009 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 306-326

Author(s):

Iryna Makarenko

Keyword(s):

Black Sea ◽

Marine Environment ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

Institutional Structure ◽

The Black Sea ◽

Global Level ◽

Current Trends

In this chapter, the role of the Black Sea Commission in the preservation of marine environment will be considered. Particular emphasis will be placed on the activities related to management of the marine living resources, the legal gaps in the documents and institutional structure, as well the current trends and challenges on the regional and global level. An overview of relevant Black Sea Commission's observers and partners will be provided; existing and possible future arrangements with them will be further described and analyzed. Some concrete recommendations on the improvements in the management of marine living resources in the Black Sea basin will be proposed.

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Preserving Farmland on the Urban Fringe: A Literature Review on Land Policies in Developed Countries

Land ◽

10.3390/land9070223 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 223 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Coline Perrin ◽

Camille Clément ◽

Romain Melot ◽

Brigitte Nougarèdes

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Management ◽

Recent Literature ◽

Farming Systems ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Urban Fringe ◽

French Language ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Farmland Protection ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Land Policies

This paper reviews the recent literature dealing with farmland protection (FP) policies in developed countries from a planning perspective, with a specific focus on the Mediterranean region. It provides coverage of French language papers that may have been omitted in previous reviews. While the Mediterranean is often pointed out as a region with acute challenges related to food security and a lack of effective planning policies, the literature underlines that issues related to FP policies are similar across the world. Hence, this review may bring valuable insights for more sustainable management of farmland on the urban fringe. It maps several interesting areas of research concerning the often implicit and disparate rationales of FP policies as well as the barriers and potential avenues for improvement for FP. It highlights that FP cannot rely merely on transferring policy tools that have proven successful elsewhere. It also reveals that land policies do not always take into account the specific needs of farming systems, as they often focus on land rather than on agriculture. Further research is thus needed to reveal the interaction over time between the use of certain FP tools and the unique local features of urban fringe agriculture. This review may be of interest to students and scholars, but also to practitioners, policy makers and local groups looking for innovative, more flexible or locally suited farmland protection programs.

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HESS Opinions: The myth of groundwater sustainability in Asia

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-24-489-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 24 (1) ◽

pp. 489-500

Author(s):

Franklin W. Schwartz ◽

Ganming Liu ◽

Zhongbo Yu

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Management ◽

Arid Regions ◽

Global Climate ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Know How ◽

Groundwater Sustainability ◽

Advanced Technologies ◽

The Arid Regions ◽

Economic Tools ◽

Business As Usual

Abstract. Across the arid regions of water-stressed countries of Asia, groundwater production for irrigated agriculture has led to water-level declines that continue to worsen. For India, China, Pakistan, Iran, and others, it is unrealistic to expect groundwater sustainability in a verifiable sense to emerge. Fragmented governance and the general inability to bring traditional socio-economic tools to bear on reducing groundwater demands have impeded progress to groundwater sustainability. For India and Pakistan, where operational management is at the level of states and provinces, there is no capacity to regulate. Also in both China and India, the tremendous numbers of groundwater users, large and small, confound regulation of groundwater. With business as usual, groundwater-related problems receive insufficient attention, a situation referred to as an “accelerating and invisible groundwater crisis” (Biswas et al., 2017). Another obstacle to sustainability comes from trying to manage something you do not understand. With sustainable management, there are significant burdens in the needed technical know-how, in collecting necessary data, and in funding advanced technologies. Thus, there are risks that Iran, India, and Pakistan will run short of groundwater from over-pumping in some places and will also be adversely affected by global climate change.

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Sustainable Management of Bannerghatta National Park, India, with the Insights in Land Cover Dynamics

FIIB Business Review ◽

10.1177/2319714519828462 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 118-131 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

T. V. Ramachandra ◽

Bharath Setturu

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

National Parks ◽

Sustainable Management ◽

National Park ◽

Forest Cover ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Buffer Zone ◽

Change Analysis ◽

Rapid Economic Growth

The ecosystem of health and natural resource management is influenced by the social, political, economic system and institutional framework in a region. Rapid economic growth in Bangalore and its environs in recent decades has resulted in environmental changes in Bannerghatta National Park (BNP) and its buffer (of 5 km). Land use land cover (LULC) change analysis with a modelling technique such as cellular automata (CA)-Markov was used for quantitatively exploring forest cover transitions. The analysis of LULC dynamics has revealed loss of vegetation cover from 85.78 per cent to 66.37 per cent (1973–2015) and severe environmental stress. The region has lost moist deciduous cover, from 26.1 per cent to 13.8 per cent, and witnessed an increase in horticulture, from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent (1973–2015). The visualization of likely land use in 2027 indicates the loss of forest cover from 41.38 per cent to 35.59 per cent with an increase in urban area from 4.49 per cent to 9.62 per cent (with new residential and commercial layouts in the buffer zone of BNP in violation of the eco-sensitive zone norms as per Section 5(1) of Environment Protection Act 1986). The study provides insights for developing an appropriate planning framework towards conservation and the sustainable management of ecologically sensitive national parks.

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REDD+ as a Public Policy Dilemma: Understanding Conflict and Cooperation in the Design of Conservation Incentives

Forests ◽

10.3390/f9110725 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 725 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Hugo Rosa da Conceição ◽

Jan Börner ◽

Sven Wunder

Keyword(s):

Poverty Reduction ◽

Policy Design ◽

Forest Degradation ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Public Response ◽

Conservation Policies ◽

Conflict And Cooperation ◽

History Of ◽

Exerted Pressure ◽

And Control

Command-and-control policies are often criticized as insufficient to tackle tropical deforestation. Over the past two decades, both academics and policy-makers have promoted incentive-based policies, notably REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), as attractive alternatives to curb forest loss, while also potentially contributing to the poverty reduction of forest-dwelling populations. Governments have been the driving force behind the largest incentive-based forest conservation programs in Latin America. Many science-based recommendations on how to design effective incentive-based policies have, however, not found much resonance within policy circles. To understand the gap between recommendations and practice, it is important to analyze how these schemes are designed towards achieving environmental and non-environmental outcomes. To this end, we analyzed the comprehensive history of governance dynamics behind two government-led incentive schemes in Ecuador and Peru. We found that electoral interests and bureaucratic politics exerted pressure on policy design teams, which eventually traded off long-term societal efficiency concerns against short-term administrative goals. Priority was often given to non-environmental concerns, due to perceptions of political feasibility, the influence of non-environmental government agencies, and beliefs in particular government roles or public response. These findings are especially relevant for scholars studying the design, implementation and impacts of incentive-based conservation policies, and for practitioners aiming to enhance policy efficiency.

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