scholarly journals Multiresolution Forecasting for Industrial Applications

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1697
Author(s):  
Quirin Stier ◽  
Tino Gehlert ◽  
Michael C. Thrun
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Call Center ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Art Methods ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Fourier Theory ◽  
Better Than

The forecasting of univariate time series poses challenges in industrial applications if the seasonality varies. Typically, a non-varying seasonality of a time series is treated with a model based on Fourier theory or the aggregation of forecasts from multiple resolution levels. If the seasonality changes with time, various wavelet approaches for univariate forecasting are proposed with promising potential but without accessible software or a systematic evaluation of different wavelet models compared to state-of-the-art methods. In contrast, the advantage of the specific multiresolution forecasting proposed here is the convenience of a swiftly accessible implementation in R and Python combined with coefficient selection through evolutionary optimization which is evaluated in four different applications: scheduling of a call center, planning electricity demand, and predicting stocks and prices. The systematic benchmarking is based on out-of-sample forecasts resulting from multiple cross-validations with the error measure MASE and SMAPE for which the error distribution of each method and dataset is estimated and visualized with the mirrored density plot. The multiresolution forecasting performs equal to or better than twelve comparable state-of-the-art methods but does not require users to set parameters contrary to prior wavelet forecasting frameworks. This makes the method suitable for industrial applications.

scholarly journals Stacked Boosters Network Architecture for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuukka Salmi ◽  
Jussi Kiljander ◽  
Daniel Pakkala
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Base Learner

This paper presents a novel deep learning architecture for short-term load forecasting of building energy loads. The architecture is based on a simple base learner and multiple boosting systems that are modelled as a single deep neural network. The architecture transforms the original multivariate time series into multiple cascading univariate time series. Together with sparse interactions, parameter sharing and equivariant representations, this approach makes it possible to combat against overfitting while still achieving good presentation power with a deep network architecture. The architecture is evaluated in several short-term load forecasting tasks with energy data from an office building in Finland. The proposed architecture outperforms state-of-the-art load forecasting model in all the tasks.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN UNIVARIATE AND BIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS FOR CRUDE PALM OIL INDUSTRY IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Pauline Jin Wee Mah ◽  
Nur Nadhirah Nanyan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Bivariate Time Series

The main purpose of this study is to compare the performances of univariate and bivariate models on four time series variables of the crude palm oil industry in Peninsular Malaysia. The monthly data for the four variables, which are the crude palm oil production, price, import and export, were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). In the first part of this study, univariate time series models, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and autoregressive autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were used for modelling and forecasting purposes. Subsequently, the dependence between any two of the four variables were checked using the residuals’ sample cross correlation functions before modelling the bivariate time series. In order to model the bivariate time series and make prediction, the transfer function models were used. The forecast accuracy criteria used to evaluate the performances of the models were the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the univariate time series showed that the best model for predicting the production was ARIMA  while the ARAR algorithm were the best forecast models for predicting both the import and export of crude palm oil. However, ARIMA  appeared to be the best forecast model for price based on the MAE and MAPE values while ARFIMA  emerged the best model based on the RMSE value.  When considering bivariate time series models, the production was dependent on import while the export was dependent on either price or import. The results showed that the bivariate models had better performance compared to the univariate models for production and export of crude palm oil based on the forecast accuracy criteria used.

Deep Learning for text in limted data settings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pathikkumar Patel ◽  
Bhargav Lad ◽  
Jinan Fiaidhi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Text Classification ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Text Data ◽  
Performance Levels

During the last few years, RNN models have been extensively used and they have proven to be better for sequence and text data. RNNs have achieved state-of-the-art performance levels in several applications such as text classification, sequence to sequence modelling and time series forecasting. In this article we will review different Machine Learning and Deep Learning based approaches for text data and look at the results obtained from these methods. This work also explores the use of transfer learning in NLP and how it affects the performance of models on a specific application of sentiment analysis.

scholarly journals Multi-hop assortativities for network classification

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 603-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Gutiérrez-Gómez ◽  
Jean-Charles Delvenne
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Scientific Collaboration ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Medical Engineering ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Classification Task ◽  
Collaboration Network ◽  
Structural Patterns ◽  
Art Methods

Abstract Several social, medical, engineering and biological challenges rely on discovering the functionality of networks from their structure and node metadata, when it is available. For example, in chemoinformatics one might want to detect whether a molecule is toxic based on structure and atomic types, or discover the research field of a scientific collaboration network. Existing techniques rely on counting or measuring structural patterns that are known to show large variations from network to network, such as the number of triangles, or the assortativity of node metadata. We introduce the concept of multi-hop assortativity, that captures the similarity of the nodes situated at the extremities of a randomly selected path of a given length. We show that multi-hop assortativity unifies various existing concepts and offers a versatile family of ‘fingerprints’ to characterize networks. These fingerprints allow in turn to recover the functionalities of a network, with the help of the machine learning toolbox. Our method is evaluated empirically on established social and chemoinformatic network benchmarks. Results reveal that our assortativity based features are competitive providing highly accurate results often outperforming state of the art methods for the network classification task.

scholarly journals Smoothing additive manufactured parts using ns-pulsed laser radiation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Kuisat ◽  
Fernando Lasagni ◽  
Andrés Fabián Lasagni
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Mechanical Performance ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Pulsed Laser ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Laser Source ◽  
Pulsed Laser Radiation ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIt is well known that the surface topography of a part can affect its mechanical performance, which is typical in additive manufacturing. In this context, we report about the surface modification of additive manufactured components made of Titanium 64 (Ti64) and Scalmalloy®, using a pulsed laser, with the aim of reducing their surface roughness. In our experiments, a nanosecond-pulsed infrared laser source with variable pulse durations between 8 and 200 ns was applied. The impact of varying a large number of parameters on the surface quality of the smoothed areas was investigated. The results demonstrated a reduction of surface roughness Sa by more than 80% for Titanium 64 and by 65% for Scalmalloy® samples. This allows to extend the applicability of additive manufactured components beyond the current state of the art and break new ground for the application in various industrial applications such as in aerospace.

scholarly journals A Time Series Sustainability Assessment of a Partial Energy Portfolio Transition

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Jacob Hale ◽  
Suzanna Long
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
State Level ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Energy Transitions ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Partial Energy

Energy portfolios are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel resources that perpetuate the consequences associated with climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to transition to more renewable alternatives to limit further harm to the environment. This study presents a univariate time series prediction model that evaluates sustainability outcomes of partial energy transitions. Future electricity generation at the state-level is predicted using exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The best prediction results are then used as an input for a sustainability assessment of a proposed transition by calculating carbon, water, land, and cost footprints. Missouri, USA was selected as a model testbed due to its dependence on coal. Of the time series methods, ARIMA exhibited the best performance and was used to predict annual electricity generation over a 10-year period. The proposed transition consisted of a one-percent annual decrease of coal’s portfolio share to be replaced with an equal share of solar and wind supply. The sustainability outcomes of the transition demonstrate decreases in carbon and water footprints but increases in land and cost footprints. Decision makers can use the results presented here to better inform strategic provisioning of critical resources in the context of proposed energy transitions.

scholarly journals Automatic Detection of Discrimination Actions from Social Images

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 325
Author(s):  
Zhihao Wu ◽  
Baopeng Zhang ◽  
Tianchen Zhou ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Jianping Fan
Keyword(s):  
Action Recognition ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Automatic Detection ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Practical Approach ◽  
Detection And Identification ◽  
Art Methods ◽  
Image Set ◽  
Social Images ◽  
Relationship Identification

In this paper, we developed a practical approach for automatic detection of discrimination actions from social images. Firstly, an image set is established, in which various discrimination actions and relations are manually labeled. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to create a dataset for discrimination action recognition and relationship identification. Secondly, a practical approach is developed to achieve automatic detection and identification of discrimination actions and relationships from social images. Thirdly, the task of relationship identification is seamlessly integrated with the task of discrimination action recognition into one single network called the Co-operative Visual Translation Embedding++ network (CVTransE++). We also compared our proposed method with numerous state-of-the-art methods, and our experimental results demonstrated that our proposed methods can significantly outperform state-of-the-art approaches.

scholarly journals A Deep Learning Approach to Predict Autism Spectrum Disorder Using Multisite Resting-State fMRI

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3636
Author(s):  
Faria Zarin Subah ◽  
Kaushik Deb ◽  
Pranab Kumar Dhar ◽  
Takeshi Koshiba
Keyword(s):  
Autism Spectrum Disorder ◽  
Resting State ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Resting State Fmri ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Spectrum Disorder ◽  
Bootstrap Analysis ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Art Methods ◽  
The Mean

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex and degenerative neuro-developmental disorder. Most of the existing methods utilize functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to detect ASD with a very limited dataset which provides high accuracy but results in poor generalization. To overcome this limitation and to enhance the performance of the automated autism diagnosis model, in this paper, we propose an ASD detection model using functional connectivity features of resting-state fMRI data. Our proposed model utilizes two commonly used brain atlases, Craddock 200 (CC200) and Automated Anatomical Labelling (AAL), and two rarely used atlases Bootstrap Analysis of Stable Clusters (BASC) and Power. A deep neural network (DNN) classifier is used to perform the classification task. Simulation results indicate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy. The mean accuracy of the proposed model was 88%, whereas the mean accuracy of the state-of-the-art methods ranged from 67% to 85%. The sensitivity, F1-score, and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) score of the proposed model were 90%, 87%, and 96%, respectively. Comparative analysis on various scoring strategies show the superiority of BASC atlas over other aforementioned atlases in classifying ASD and control.

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