scholarly journals Forecasting of Glucose Levels and Hypoglycemic Events: Head-to-Head Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Data-Driven Algorithms Based on Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data Only

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1647
Author(s):  
Francesco Prendin ◽  
Simone Del Favero ◽  
Martina Vettoretti ◽  
Giovanni Sparacino ◽  
Andrea Facchinetti
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Continuous Glucose Monitoring ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Glucose Monitoring ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Linear Algorithm ◽  
Predictive Algorithms ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

In type 1 diabetes management, the availability of algorithms capable of accurately forecasting future blood glucose (BG) concentrations and hypoglycemic episodes could enable proactive therapeutic actions, e.g., the consumption of carbohydrates to mitigate, or even avoid, an impending critical event. The only input of this kind of algorithm is often continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor data, because other signals (such as injected insulin, ingested carbs, and physical activity) are frequently unavailable. Several predictive algorithms fed by CGM data only have been proposed in the literature, but they were assessed using datasets originated by different experimental protocols, making a comparison of their relative merits difficult. The aim of the present work was to perform a head-to-head comparison of thirty different linear and nonlinear predictive algorithms using the same dataset, given by 124 CGM traces collected over 10 days with the newest Dexcom G6 sensor available on the market and considering a 30-min prediction horizon. We considered the state-of-the art methods, investigating, in particular, linear black-box methods (autoregressive; autoregressive moving-average; and autoregressive integrated moving-average, ARIMA) and nonlinear machine-learning methods (support vector regression, SVR; regression random forest; feed-forward neural network, fNN; and long short-term memory neural network). For each method, the prediction accuracy and hypoglycemia detection capabilities were assessed using either population or individualized model parameters. As far as prediction accuracy is concerned, the results show that the best linear algorithm (individualized ARIMA) provides accuracy comparable to that of the best nonlinear algorithm (individualized fNN), with root mean square errors of 22.15 and 21.52 mg/dL, respectively. As far as hypoglycemia detection is concerned, the best linear algorithm (individualized ARIMA) provided precision = 64%, recall = 82%, and one false alarm/day, comparable to the best nonlinear technique (population SVR): precision = 63%, recall = 69%, and 0.5 false alarms/day. In general, the head-to-head comparison of the thirty algorithms fed by CGM data only made using a wide dataset shows that individualized linear models are more effective than population ones, while no significant advantages seem to emerge when employing nonlinear methodologies.

scholarly journals Predicting Corporate Financial Sustainability Using Novel Business Analytics

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyoung-jae Kim ◽  
Kichun Lee ◽  
Hyunchul Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Business Analytics ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Distress Prediction

Measuring and managing the financial sustainability of the borrowers is crucial to financial institutions for their risk management. As a result, building an effective corporate financial distress prediction model has been an important research topic for a long time. Recently, researchers are exerting themselves to improve the accuracy of financial distress prediction models by applying various business analytics approaches including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, support vector machines (SVMs) are becoming popular. SVMs require only small training samples and have little possibility of overfitting if model parameters are properly tuned. Nonetheless, SVMs generally show high prediction accuracy since it can deal with complex nonlinear patterns. Despite of these advantages, SVMs are often criticized because their architectural factors are determined by heuristics, such as the parameters of a kernel function and the subsets of appropriate features and instances. In this study, we propose globally optimized SVMs, denoted by GOSVM, a novel hybrid SVM model designed to optimize feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameters altogether. This study introduces genetic algorithm (GA) in order to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of SVMs. Our study applies the proposed model to the real-world case for predicting financial distress. Experiments show that the proposed model significantly improves the prediction accuracy of conventional SVMs.

scholarly journals Application of the Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machines in Forest Fire Prediction in the Guangxi Autonomous Region, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Yudong Li ◽  
Zhongke Feng ◽  
Shilin Chen ◽  
Ziyu Zhao ◽  
Fengge Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Support Vector Machines ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Autonomous Region ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Vector Machines

The study of forest fire prediction is of great environmental and scientific significance. China’s Guangxi Autonomous Region has a high incidence rate of forest fires. At present, there is little research on forest fires in this area. The application of the artificial neural network and support vector machines (SVM) in forest fire prediction in this area can provide data for forest fire prevention and control in Guangxi. In this paper, based on Guangxi’s 2010–2018 satellite monitoring hotspot data, meteorology, terrain, vegetation, infrastructure, and socioeconomic data, the researchers determined the main forest fire driving factors in Guangxi. They used feature selection and backpropagation neural networks and radial basis SVM to build forest fire prediction models. Finally, the researchers use the accuracy, precision, and area under the characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) and other indicators to evaluate the predictive performance of the two models. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the BP neural network and SVM is 92.16% and 89.89%, respectively. As both results are over 85%, the requirements of prediction accuracy is met. These results can be used for forest fire prediction in the Guangxi Autonomous Region. Specifically, the accuracy of the BP neural network was 0.93, which was higher than that of the SVM model (0.89); the recall of the SVM model was 0.84, which was lower than the BANN model (0.92), and the AUC value of the SVM model was 0.95, which was lower than the BP neural network model. The obtained results confirm that the BP neural network model can provide more prediction accuracy than support vector machines and is therefore more suitable for forest fire prediction in Guangxi, China. This research provides the necessary theoretical basis and data support for application in the field of forestry of the Guangxi Autonomous Region, China.

scholarly journals Learning Dynamic Factors to Improve the Accuracy of Bus Arrival Time Prediction via a Recurrent Neural Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 247
Author(s):  
Xin Zhou ◽  
Peixin Dong ◽  
Jianping Xing ◽  
Peijia Sun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Attention Mechanism ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Factors

Accurate prediction of bus arrival times is a challenging problem in the public transportation field. Previous studies have shown that to improve prediction accuracy, more heterogeneous measurements provide better results. So what other factors should be added into the prediction model? Traditional prediction methods mainly use the arrival time and the distance between stations, but do not make full use of dynamic factors such as passenger number, dwell time, bus driving efficiency, etc. We propose a novel approach that takes full advantage of dynamic factors. Our approach is based on a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). The experimental results indicate that a variety of prediction algorithms (such as Support Vector Machine, Kalman filter, Multilayer Perceptron, and RNN) have significantly improved performance after using dynamic factors. Further, we introduce RNN with an attention mechanism to adaptively select the most relevant input factors. Experiments demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of RNN with an attention mechanism is better than RNN with no attention mechanism when there are heterogeneous input factors. The experimental results show the superior performances of our approach on the data set provided by Jinan Public Transportation Corporation.

scholarly journals Predicting Freeway Travel Time Using Multiple- Source Heterogeneous Data Integration

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kejun Long ◽  
Wukai Yao ◽  
Jian Gu ◽  
Wei Wu ◽  
Lee Han
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Multiple Source ◽  
Function Parameter ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Adverse Weather

Freeway travel time is influenced by many factors including traffic volume, adverse weather, accidents, traffic control, and so on. We employ the multiple source data-mining method to analyze freeway travel time. We collected toll data, weather data, traffic accident disposal logs, and other historical data from Freeway G5513 in Hunan Province, China. Using the Support Vector Machine (SVM), we proposed the travel time predicting model founded on these databases. The new SVM model can simulate the nonlinear relationship between travel time and those factors. In order to improve the precision of the SVM model, we applied the Artificial Fish Swarm algorithm to optimize the SVM model parameters, which include the kernel parameter σ, non-sensitive loss function parameter ε, and penalty parameter C. We compared the new optimized SVM model with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and a common SVM model, using the historical data collected from freeway G5513. The results show that the accuracy of the optimized SVM model is 17.27% and 16.44% higher than those of the BP neural network model and the common SVM model, respectively.

scholarly journals Improvement of Short-Term BIPV Power Predictions Using Feature Engineering and a Recurrent Neural Network

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 3247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongkyu Lee ◽  
Jinhwa Jeong ◽  
Sung Hoon Yoon ◽  
Young Tae Chae
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Feature Engineering ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Interaction Detection ◽  
Photovoltaic Power

The time resolution and prediction accuracy of the power generated by building-integrated photovoltaics are important for managing electricity demand and formulating a strategy to trade power with the grid. This study presents a novel approach to improve short-term hourly photovoltaic power output predictions using feature engineering and machine learning. Feature selection measured the importance score of input features by using a model-based variable importance. It verified that the normative sky index in the weather forecasted data had the least importance as a predictor for hourly prediction of photovoltaic power output. Six different machine-learning algorithms were assessed to select an appropriate model for the hourly power output prediction with onsite weather forecast data. The recurrent neural network outperformed five other models, including artificial neural networks, support vector machines, classification and regression trees, chi-square automatic interaction detection, and random forests, in terms of its ability to predict photovoltaic power output at an hourly and daily resolution for 64 tested days. Feature engineering was then used to apply dropout observation to the normative sky index from the training and prediction process, which improved the hourly prediction performance. In particular, the prediction accuracy for overcast days improved by 20% compared to the original weather dataset used without dropout observation. The results show that feature engineering effectively improves the short-term predictions of photovoltaic power output in buildings with a simple weather forecasting service.

Life Prediction for Silicon Pressure Sensor Based on SVR

2012 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 241-244
Author(s):  
Zhi Hua Zhai ◽  
Ping Li Wu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Pressure Sensor ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Grid Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Training Support

In order to improve the reliability of silicon pressure sensor, life prediction for silicon pressure sensor should be performed. Life prediction for silicon pressure sensor based on support vector regression is proposed in the paper. Grid method is used to determine the parameters of support vector regression in the process of training support vector regression model. Life for silicon pressure sensor under the conditions of different pressures is given in the experimental analysis. The comparison of the errors and mean errors between support vector regression and BP neural network indicates that life prediction accuracy of support vector regression for silicon pressure sensor is higher than that of BP neural network.

scholarly journals An Overview of AI-Assisted Design-on-Simulation Technology for Reliability Life Prediction of Advanced Packaging

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5342
Author(s):  
Sunil Kumar Panigrahy ◽  
Yi-Chieh Tseng ◽  
Bo-Ruei Lai ◽  
Kuo-Ning Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Electronic Packaging ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Chip Thickness ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Wafer Level ◽  
Advanced Packaging

Several design parameters affect the reliability of wafer-level type advanced packaging, such as upper and lower pad sizes, solder volume, buffer layer thickness, and chip thickness, etc. Conventionally, the accelerated thermal cycling test (ATCT) is used to evaluate the reliability life of electronic packaging; however, optimizing the design parameters through ATCT is time-consuming and expensive, reducing the number of experiments becomes a critical issue. In recent years, many researchers have adopted the finite-element-based design-on-simulation (DoS) technology for the reliability assessment of electronic packaging. DoS technology can effectively shorten the design cycle, reduce costs, and effectively optimize the packaging structure. However, the simulation analysis results are highly dependent on the individual researcher and are usually inconsistent between them. Artificial intelligence (AI) can help researchers avoid the shortcomings of the human factor. This study demonstrates AI-assisted DoS technology by combining artificial intelligence and simulation technologies to predict wafer level package (WLP) reliability. In order to ensure reliability prediction accuracy, the simulation procedure was validated by several experiments prior to creating a large AI training database. This research studies several machine learning models, including artificial neural network (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN), support vector regression (SVR), kernel ridge regression (KRR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), and random forest (RF). These models are evaluated in this study based on prediction accuracy and CPU time consumption.

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