scholarly journals Climate Change and Thermal Comfort in Top Tourist Destinations—The Case of Santorini (Greece)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 9107
Author(s):  
George Katavoutas ◽  
Dimitra Founda ◽  
Gianna Kitsara ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Mitigation Scenario ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mediterranean

The Mediterranean area is one of the most visited tourist destinations of the world, but it has also been recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change areas worldwide with respect to increased thermal risk. The study focuses on a top worldwide tourist destination of the Mediterranean, Santorini Island in Greece, and aims to assess the past, present and future thermal environment in the island based on the advanced Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The study utilizes historical observations capturing past (late 19th to early 20th century) and more recent (1982–2019) time periods, while future projections are realized based on four regional climate models (RCMs) under the weak mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) and the non-mitigation scenario with high emissions (RCP8.5). The frequency of cold stress conditions at midday decreases during winter and early spring months by up to 19.8% (January) in the recent period compared to the historical one, while heat stress conditions increase in summer by up to 22.4% (August). Future projections suggest progressive shifts of the UTCI towards higher values in the future and an increase in the exposure time under heat stress depending on the RCM and adopted scenario. The increase in moderate and strong heat stress conditions is mainly expected during the summer months (June, July, August); nevertheless, a noticeable increase is also foreseen in September and May. The highest occurrences of favorable (no thermal stress) conditions are also projected to shift by one month, from June to May and from September to October, in the future.

scholarly journals The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1525-1538 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. Winsemius ◽  
E. Dutra ◽  
F. A. Engelbrecht ◽  
E. Archer Van Garderen ◽  
F. Wetterhall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Subsistence farming in southern Africa is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. The yield of rain-fed agriculture depends largely on rainfall-related factors such as total seasonal rainfall, anomalous onsets and lengths of the rainy season and the frequency of occurrence of dry spells. Livestock, in turn, may be seriously impacted by climatic stress with, for example, exceptionally hot days, affecting condition, reproduction, vulnerability to pests and pathogens and, ultimately, morbidity and mortality. Climate change may affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions, impacting on the success of subsistence farming. A potentially interesting adaptation measure comprises the timely forecasting and warning of such extreme events, combined with mitigation measures that allow farmers to prepare for the event occurring. This paper investigates how the frequency of extreme events may change in the future due to climate change over southern Africa and, in more detail, the Limpopo Basin using a set of climate change projections from several regional climate model downscalings based on an extreme climate scenario. Furthermore, the paper assesses the predictability of these indicators by seasonal meteorological forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the temperature heat index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases in the future and predictability is found, seasonal forecasts will gain importance in the future, as they can more often lead to informed decision-making to implement mitigation measures. The multi-model climate projections suggest that the frequency of dry spells is not likely to increase substantially, whereas there is a clear and coherent signal among the models of an increase in the frequency of heat stress conditions by the end of the century. The skill analysis of the seasonal forecast system demonstrates that there is a potential to adapt to this change by utilizing the weather forecasts, given that both indicators can be skilfully predicted for the December–February season, at least 2 months ahead of the wet season. This is particularly the case for predicting above-normal and below-normal conditions. The frequency of heat stress conditions shows better predictability than the frequency of dry spells. Although results are promising for end users on the ground, forecasts alone are insufficient to ensure appropriate response. Sufficient support for appropriate measures must be in place, and forecasts must be communicated in a context-specific, accessible and understandable format.

scholarly journals The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 14747-14782 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. Winsemius ◽  
E. Dutra ◽  
F. A. Engelbrecht ◽  
E. Archer Van Garderen ◽  
F. Wetterhall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Subsistence Farming ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Subsistence farming in Southern Africa is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. The yield of rain-fed agriculture depends largely on rainfall-related factors such as total seasonal rainfall, anomalous onsets and lengths of the rainy season and the frequency of occurrence of dry spells. Livestock, in turn, may be seriously impacted by climatic stress with, for example, exceptionally hot days, affecting condition, reproduction, vulnerability to pests and pathogens and, ultimately, morbidity and mortality. Climate change may affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions, impacting on the success of subsistence farming. A potentially interesting adaptation measure comprises the timely forecasting and warning of such extreme events, combined with mitigation measures that allow farmers to prepare for the event occurring. This paper investigates how the frequency of extreme events may change in the future due to climate change over southern Africa and, in more detail, the Limpopo basin using a set of climate change projections from several regional climate model downscalings. Furthermore the paper assesses the predictability of these indicators by seasonal meteorological forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases in the future and predictability is found, seasonal forecasts will gain importance in the future as they can more often lead to informed decision making to implement mitigation measures. The multi-model climate projections suggest that the frequency of dry spells is not likely to increase substantially, whereas there is a clear and coherent signal among the models, of an increase in the frequency of heat stress conditions by the end of the century. The skill analysis of the seasonal forecast system demonstrates that there is a potential to adapt to this change by utilizing the weather forecasts given that both indicators can be skilfully predicted for the December-to-February season, at least two months ahead of the wet season. This is particularly the case for predicting above-normal and below-normal conditions. The frequency of heat stress conditions shows better predictability than the frequency of dry spells. Although results are promising for end users on the ground, forecasts alone are insufficient to ensure appropriate response. Sufficient support for appropriate measures must be in place, and forecasts must be communicated in a context-specific, accessible and understandable format.

scholarly journals Projected changes in the frequency of thermal comfort conditions at cold and warm cities, based on advanced bioclimatic indices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgos Katavoutas ◽  
Dimitra Founda ◽  
Konstantinos V. Varotsos ◽  
Christos Giannakopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Bioclimatic Indices ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
The Future ◽  
Related Stress

<p>Climate change and global warming affect heat or cold related stress in humans and ecosystems. Human thermal comfort or discomfort conditions in particular, are assessed through the application of simple or rational thermal (or bioclimatic) indices. In contrast to simple, advanced indices like the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are based on human energy balance between the human body and thermal environment and involve multiple meteorological parameters, like air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and mean radiant temperature. Accelerating warming is expected to affect both heat and cold related stress conditions in the future, resulting in increased frequency of heat related stress, especially at warmer cities like the cities of Mediterranean, and at the same time reduced frequency of cold related stress at colder cities, like the cities of northern Europe. Asymmetrical changes in the frequency of heat or cold related stress conditions will eventually determine the future changes (increases or decreases) in the frequency of conditions of no thermal stress at cities of different background climate. The study will investigate future changes in ‘thermal comfort’ or ‘favourable’ conditions at cities with different base climate. Simulations by a set of state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in the frame of EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) modeling experiment (http://www.euro-cordex.net) with a horizontal resolution of about 12 km (0.11°) downscaled over the areas of interest will be realized for a control period and for two periods in the near and distant future, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future emissions scenarios. Simulations of meteorological variables for the estimation of UTCI at 3-hourly step will be retrieved for the closest land model grid point to the observation sites, while the performance of the RCMs will be evaluated against results from observations for the control period.</p>

scholarly journals Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 4125-4143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrica Perra ◽  
Monica Piras ◽  
Roberto Deidda ◽  
Claudio Paniconi ◽  
Giuseppe Mascaro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Soil Water Content ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible to variations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. The assessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from five hydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southern Sardinia (Italy). The examined models – CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM) – are all distributed hydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrain features and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. After calibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected, downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate models in a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) period under a single emission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of the hydrologic models influence the different components of the catchment response. Three water availability response variables – discharge, soil water content, and actual evapotranspiration – are analyzed. Simulation results from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasing mean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actual evapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the five models due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region of the Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this study allows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models and between the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate and hydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using a recently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient with a factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. The results from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between the hydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateral subsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment of vegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM).

Spatiotemporal assessment of heat risk for high-density urban areas: a case study in Dublin, Ireland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry O'Dwyer ◽  
Roberta Paranunzio ◽  
Edward Dwyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Heat Risk ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Ireland’s climate is changing and these changes are projected to intensify into the future posing an increasing risk to Ireland’s environment, society and economy. For Ireland and its urban areas in particular, projected changes in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves is considered a moderate but real risk. For example, it is considered likely that Ireland’s capital city Dublin will experience increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves under projected climate change. Moreover Ireland’s population is ageing faster than other parts of Europe and becoming increasingly vulnerable to heat stress.</p><p>To date, little attention has focussed on heat-related risks for Ireland’s urban areas, focussing primarily on risks associated with sea level rise and changing patterns of precipitation. Through this work, we provide an innovative approach that allows for the integrated assessment of current and future heat risk for the Greater Dublin Area.  Employing a range of modelling approaches, landcover projections have been developed and future changes in urban heat projected, and spatiotemporal variations in level of exposure to heat stress have been calculated using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for current and future periods (2020s – 2050s) under a range of radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5).  These assessments are combined with vulnerability information (socio-economic data) to obtain spatially-explicit indexes of heat risk and for different scenarios (RCPs). As a result of projected changes in landcover and temperatures, our assessments show that the level of exposure to extreme heat stress will increase in the coming decades and this is particularly the case for the RCP 8.5 scenario. In combination with assessments of vulnerability, this study identifies significant spatial clusters in the denser urban core of the city and peri-urban areas that are considered to be at relatively high levels of heat risk.</p><p>Spatial planning and land use planning are emerging as policy areas that can have significant influence on adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. Through spatial planning, the ways in which cities are designed in order to minimise risks can be re-evaluated and the complexity and uncertainty of climate change tackled.  This study provides spatially explicit information at a fine scale on the evolution of exposure and vulnerability related to thermal heat stress that will support stakeholders to implement strategies and policies aimed at mitigating and adapting to ongoing and future urban heat risk.  </p><div> </div>

Heat stress and outdoor activities in open spaces of public housing estates in Hong Kong: A perspective of the elderly community

2020 ◽  
pp. 1420326X2095044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianxiang Huang ◽  
Yang Chen ◽  
Phil Jones ◽  
Tongping Hao
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Public Housing ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Universal Thermal Climate Index ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Housing Estates

Open spaces in Hong Kong are in short supply and they are often underused due to the adverse climate, especially in hot and humid summer. This is a missed opportunity that can be otherwise realized to promote health and social interactions for local communities. The high density urban environment makes the condition worse by raising the urban heat island effect and leaving planners with fewer mitigation options. This study aims to test the hypotheses that an unfavourable thermal environment disrupts the use of outdoor open spaces; if yes, whether such disruptions differ by age groups. On-site measurement and computer simulations were conducted in three open spaces in public housing estates in Ngau Tau Kok, Hong Kong. Thermal conditions were assessed using the Universal Thermal Climate Index. Occupant activities were recorded, together with a questionnaire survey. Results showed that an open space purposefully designed for breeze and shading was 2.0°C cooler in Universal Thermal Climate Index compared with the other two. It attracted more optional/social activities, higher frequency of visits, and longer duration of stay. The elderly activities were more susceptible to disruptions from heat stress compared with younger groups. Elderly activities largely diminish when ambient thermal environment exceed 39°C in Universal Thermal Climate Index. Findings have implications to design and retrofitting of open spaces in order to maximize their use.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Human-Biometeorological Index Classes in Three Regions of Luxembourg, Western-Central Europe

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Leona Lokys ◽  
Jürgen Junk ◽  
Andreas Krein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Stress ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
The Impact

Projected climate change will cause increasing air temperatures affecting human thermal comfort. In the highly populated areas of Western-Central Europe a large population will be exposed to these changes. In particular Luxembourg—with its dense population and the large cross-border commuter flows—is vulnerable to changing thermal stress. Based on climate change projections we assessed the impact of climate change on human thermal comfort over the next century using two common human-biometeorological indices, the Physiological Equivalent Temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index. To account for uncertainties, we used a multimodel ensemble of 12 transient simulations (1971–2098) with a spatial resolution of 25 km. In addition, the regional differences were analysed by a single regional climate model run with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. For the future, trends in air temperature, vapour pressure, and both human-biometeorological indices could be determined. Cold stress levels will decrease significantly in the near future up to 2050, while the increase in heat stress turns statistically significant in the far future up to 2100. This results in a temporarily reduced overall thermal stress level but further increasing air temperatures will shift the thermal comfort towards heat stress.

Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh ◽  
Jeremy S. Pal ◽  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Xuejie Gao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
The Mediterranean

scholarly journals The Effects of Heat Stress on Production, Reproduction, Health in Chicken and Its Dietary Amelioration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Gitau Gicheha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Poultry Production ◽  
Subsequent Increase ◽  
Thermal Environments ◽  
Genetic Potential

Farm profitability is the key driver of most livestock enterprises. The productivity and profitability are driven by genetic potential of the animals and the ability to express the superiority in the production environment. In an ideal situation, an animal should produce maximally as dictated by the genetic potential. It is noteworthy that the environment in which an animal lives in impacts on its ability to expose its genetic potential. Studies have shown that it is rarely feasible to provide animals with ideal conditions to express their full genetic potential. The environment in which animals are reared is characterised by many factors that interact in ways that result in different performance even in animals of similar genetic makeup. For instance, thermal environment is critical in poultry production as it affects both the production and reproduction in different ways. The thermal environment affects chicken differently depending on the stage of growth or production phase. This environment has been impacted by the climate change and subsequent increase in climatic variability resulting in thermal challenges in naturally produced chicken thus altering production and reproduction. This implies that there is need to consider thermal resource in the routine poultry management practices. This would result to design of poultry production systems responsive to the thermal environments more so in the light of climate change and the subsequent increase in climatic variability. This chapter explores the impact of heat stress on chicken production, reproduction, health and its dietary amelioration.

scholarly journals A Review of Factors to Consider for Permanent Cordon Establishment and Maintenance

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1811
Author(s):  
Patrick O’Brien ◽  
Roberta De Bei ◽  
Mark Sosnowski ◽  
Cassandra Collins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Vascular System ◽  
Vascular Diseases ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Normal Flow ◽  
Training Techniques ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Over Time

Decisions made during the establishment and reworking of permanent cordon arms may have long-term consequences on vineyard health and longevity. This review aims to summarise several of the important considerations that must be taken into account during cordon establishment and maintenance. Commonly practiced cordon training techniques such as wrapping developing arms tightly around the cordon wire may result in a constriction of the vascular system, becoming worse over time and disrupting the normal flow of water and nutrients. Studies have shown that other factors of cordon decline such as the onset of vascular diseases may be influenced by pre-existing stress conditions. Such conditions could be further exacerbated by water and heat stress events, an important consideration as these scenarios become more common under the influence of climate change. Vineyard sustainability may be improved by adopting cordon training techniques which promote long-term vitality and avoid a reduction in vine defence response and the costly, premature reworking of vines.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document