Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs

Burundi is susceptible to future water-related disasters, but examining the influence of climate change on regional hydroclimatic features is challenging due to a lack of local data and adaptation planning. This study investigated the influence of climate change on hydroclimate-focused changes in the climatology of heavy precipitation (and streamflow) means and extremes based on the multi-model ensemble mean of earth system models in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). For runoff analysis, hydrologic responses to future climate conditions were simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model over the Ruvubu River basin, Burundi. Temperature increases by 5.6 °C, with strong robustness, under future climate conditions. The mean annual precipitation (and runoff) undergoes large seasonal variations, with weak robustness. Precipitation (and streamflow) changes between the wet and dry seasons differ in signal and magnitude. However, alterations in both the amount and frequency of precipitation reveal the intensification of the water cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. Thus, the highest variability in the maximum daily streamflow is shown in months of long wet seasons, especially in the far future (2085). Without considering the regional climate characteristics and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, this behavior is expected to be enhanced in 2085 (compared with 2045) and increase the severity of extreme precipitation and flood risk. Climate change will cause alterations in the magnitude and seasonal distributions of extreme precipitation (and streamflow). These findings could be important for flood planning and mitigation measures to cope with climate change in Burundi.

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Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology9010003 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 3

Author(s):

Nega Chalie Emiru ◽

John Walker Recha ◽

Julian R. Thompson ◽

Abrham Belay ◽

Ermias Aynekulu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Addis Ababa ◽

Swat Model ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Trend Test

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q5) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q90) also decline with Q90 equaling 0 m3s−1 (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures.

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A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091313 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1313

Author(s):

George Akoko ◽

Tu Hoang Le ◽

Takashi Gomi ◽

Tasuku Kato

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Data Availability ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Model Parameterization ◽

Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

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Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2012.035 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 207-224 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Tadashi Suetsugi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Catchment ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

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Predicting the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River watershed

GeoScape ◽

10.2478/geosc-2021-0013 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 159-172

Author(s):

Umidkhon Uzbekov ◽

Bakhtiyor Pulatov ◽

Bokhir Alikhanov ◽

Alim Pulatov

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Human Life ◽

Swat Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Water Users ◽

The Impact

Abstract Climate change affects the environment and human life across the planet and it is expected that the negative consequences will be large, especially in developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The objective of this study was to predict the impact of future climate change on the streamflow of Ugam watershed (Chirchik River Basin (CRB)) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, were used as future climate records for the period 2019−2048. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the streamflow from Ugam watershed through using the observed daily flow data from 2007 to 2011. The calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River for 2019−2048. The results show that the stream discharge is expected to decrease by approximately 42% within thirty years, with a 1.4 °C increase in temperature and 286 mm decrease in precipitation. The peak point for the future period is 40.32 m3 /s in 2037 whereas the lowest discharge, predicted for 2048, accounts for 22.54 m3 /s. Our study enables to understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Ugam river and to increase the adaptive capacity of water users and managers in the region.

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Modeling hydrologic processes and potential responses to climate change in an agro-silvo-pastoral watershed in the Mediterranean area

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-383-151-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 383 ◽

pp. 151-158

Author(s):

Youssef Brouziyne ◽

Lahcen Benaabidate ◽

Aziz Abouabdillah ◽

Rachid Bouabid ◽

Abdelghani Chehbouni

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Flow Direction ◽

Swat Model ◽

Water Yield ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Hydrologic Processes

Abstract. Precipitation changes and water use patterns are two factors affecting the water quantity; obviously, hydrologic processes are always linked to many elements in the watershed scale, so to understand water management issues it is fundamental to analyze the different elements of hydrologic processes occurring in the watershed. In this study, the “SWAT” model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been used to simulate the water balance for the present climate conditions on a semi arid watershed located in the central North of Morocco (R'dom). The study watershed covers an area of 1993 km2, and is hosting farming, pasture and forestry related activities. The water stress situation in the R'dom watershed can be summarized as limited resource facing increasing water demand. SWAT model was first run and calibrated under current climate; and was driven with downscaled climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for R'dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The results of the study showed that the water balance in R'dom watershed is dominated by evapotranspiration and the water resources distribution within the watershed is uneven and follows a decreasing gradient matching the flow direction. The main results of climate change scenarios showed that R'dom watershed will undergo significant decrease of water resources availability with more economic impact under the scenario RCP8.5 as all areas hosting the economical activities will be affected and the highest changes of water yield should be under this scenario.

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Impact of climate change on surface runoff: a case study of the Darabad River, northeast of Iran

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.089 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hamid Reza Zakizadeh ◽

Hassan Ahmadi ◽

Gholam Reza Zehtabiyan ◽

Abolfazl Moeini ◽

Alireza Moghaddamnia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Water Cycle ◽

Optimal Parameter ◽

Human Life ◽

Swat Model ◽

Surface Flow ◽

Natural Ecosystems ◽

Hydrological Simulation ◽

Climate Conditions

Abstract Climate change is one of the major challenges affecting natural ecosystems and various aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and the quantitative recognition of these effects creates more readiness to deal with its consequences. In the present study, the 2006–2100 period is predicted based on the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Finally, the effects of climate change on the hydrological conditions in the Darabad watershed are simulated using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The SWAT model calibration is done based on the SUFI-2 algorithm, and the effective and optimal parameter is identified. The results of the study, while confirming the efficiency of both SDSM in climate simulations and SWAT in hydrological simulation, showed that the increase in precipitation and temperature is probably in future climate conditions for the 2010–2040 period. The surface flow and runoff at the watershed area during the observation period (1970–2010) is 0.29 m3/s, but this value for the predicted period with regard to climate change in the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios is equal to 0.43, 0.44, and 0.45 m3/s. The results of research, while highlighting the importance of effects of climate change, make it essential to apply them for proper management in order to adapt to climate change in the future policies of the Darabad watershed management.

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Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

Water ◽

10.3390/w10091135 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 1135 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Yalina Montecelos-Zamora ◽

Tereza Cavazos ◽

Thomas Kretzschmar ◽

Enrique Vivoni ◽

Gerald Corzo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Boreal Summer ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Aquifer Recharge

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied for the first time in Cuba to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Cauto River basin. The model was calibrated (and validated) for the 2001–2006 (2007–2010) period at a monthly timescale in two subbasins La Fuente and Las Coloradas, representative of middle and upper sections of the Cauto basin; the calibrated models showed good performance. The output available for the regional climate Model RegCM4.3 was used to force the calibrated SWAT models to simulate a baseline (1970–2000) period and near-future (2015–2039) hydrologic regimes under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The future projections suggest regional increases of 1.5 °C in mean annual temperature and a 38% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the subbasins. These changes translate to possible reductions in the annual streamflow of up to 61% with respect to the baseline period, whereas the aquifer recharge in the basin is expected to decrease up to 58%, with a consequent reduction of groundwater flow, especially during the boreal summer wet season. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.

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Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13179689 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (17) ◽

pp. 9689

Author(s):

Tewekel Melese Gemechu ◽

Hongling Zhao ◽

Shanshan Bao ◽

Cidan Yangzong ◽

Yingying Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Water Yield ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5

Changes in hydrological cycles and water resources will certainly be a direct consequence of climate change, making the forecast of hydrological components essential for water resource assessment and management. This research was thus carried out to estimate water balance components and water yield under current and future climate change scenarios and trends in the Guder Catchment of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hydrological modeling was efficaciously calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 algorithm of the SWAT model. The results showed that water yield varied from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year (1986–2016). Regional climate model (RCM) data showed, under representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5), that the precipitation will decrease by up to 14.4% relative to the baseline (1986–2016) precipitation of 1228 mm/year, while the air temperature will rise under RCP 8.5 by +4.4 °C in the period from 2057 to 2086, possibly reducing the future basin water yield output, suggesting that the RCP 8.5 prediction will be warmer than RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, the total water yield from 2024 to 2086 may be reduced by 3.2 mm per year, and a significant trend was observed. Local government agencies can arrange projects to solve community water-related issues based on these findings.

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Hydrologic evaluation and effects of climate change on the Nong Han Lake Basin, northeastern Thailand

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2019.040 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 992-1000

Author(s):

Jirawat Supakosol ◽

Kowit Boonrawd

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Model Soil ◽

Regional Climates ◽

Water Assessment ◽

Effective Water ◽

Northeastern Thailand

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the future runoff into the Nong Han Lake under the effects of climate change. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been selected for this study. The calibration and validation were performed by comparing the simulated and observed runoff from gauging station KH90 for the period 2001–2003 and 2004–2005, respectively. Future climate projections were generated by Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The SWAT model yielded good results in comparison to the baseline; moreover, the results of the PRECIS model showed that both precipitations and temperatures increased. Consequently, the amount of runoff calculated by SWAT under the A2 and B2 scenarios was higher than that for the baseline. In addition, the amount of runoff calculated considering the A2 scenario was higher than that considering the B2 scenario, due to higher average annual precipitations in the former case. The methodology and results of this study constitute key information for stakeholders, especially for the development of effective water management systems in the lake, such as designing a rule curve to cope with any future incidents.

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Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽

10.3390/w13111548 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (11) ◽

pp. 1548

Author(s):

Suresh Marahatta ◽

Deepak Aryal ◽

Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽

Utsav Bhattarai ◽

Dibesh Shrestha

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Models ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Data ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact ◽

Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

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