scholarly journals Impact of climate change on surface runoff: a case study of the Darabad River, northeast of Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Zakizadeh ◽  
Hassan Ahmadi ◽  
Gholam Reza Zehtabiyan ◽  
Abolfazl Moeini ◽  
Alireza Moghaddamnia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract Climate change is one of the major challenges affecting natural ecosystems and various aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and the quantitative recognition of these effects creates more readiness to deal with its consequences. In the present study, the 2006–2100 period is predicted based on the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Finally, the effects of climate change on the hydrological conditions in the Darabad watershed are simulated using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The SWAT model calibration is done based on the SUFI-2 algorithm, and the effective and optimal parameter is identified. The results of the study, while confirming the efficiency of both SDSM in climate simulations and SWAT in hydrological simulation, showed that the increase in precipitation and temperature is probably in future climate conditions for the 2010–2040 period. The surface flow and runoff at the watershed area during the observation period (1970–2010) is 0.29 m3/s, but this value for the predicted period with regard to climate change in the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios is equal to 0.43, 0.44, and 0.45 m3/s. The results of research, while highlighting the importance of effects of climate change, make it essential to apply them for proper management in order to adapt to climate change in the future policies of the Darabad watershed management.

scholarly journals Predicting the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River watershed

GeoScape ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-172
Author(s):  
Umidkhon Uzbekov ◽  
Bakhtiyor Pulatov ◽  
Bokhir Alikhanov ◽  
Alim Pulatov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Water Users ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change affects the environment and human life across the planet and it is expected that the negative consequences will be large, especially in developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The objective of this study was to predict the impact of future climate change on the streamflow of Ugam watershed (Chirchik River Basin (CRB)) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, were used as future climate records for the period 2019−2048. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the streamflow from Ugam watershed through using the observed daily flow data from 2007 to 2011. The calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River for 2019−2048. The results show that the stream discharge is expected to decrease by approximately 42% within thirty years, with a 1.4 °C increase in temperature and 286 mm decrease in precipitation. The peak point for the future period is 40.32 m3 /s in 2037 whereas the lowest discharge, predicted for 2048, accounts for 22.54 m3 /s. Our study enables to understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Ugam river and to increase the adaptive capacity of water users and managers in the region.

scholarly journals Modeling hydrologic processes and potential responses to climate change in an agro-silvo-pastoral watershed in the Mediterranean area

2020 ◽  
Vol 383 ◽  
pp. 151-158
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Rachid Bouabid ◽  
Abdelghani Chehbouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hydrologic Processes

Abstract. Precipitation changes and water use patterns are two factors affecting the water quantity; obviously, hydrologic processes are always linked to many elements in the watershed scale, so to understand water management issues it is fundamental to analyze the different elements of hydrologic processes occurring in the watershed. In this study, the “SWAT” model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been used to simulate the water balance for the present climate conditions on a semi arid watershed located in the central North of Morocco (R'dom). The study watershed covers an area of 1993 km2, and is hosting farming, pasture and forestry related activities. The water stress situation in the R'dom watershed can be summarized as limited resource facing increasing water demand. SWAT model was first run and calibrated under current climate; and was driven with downscaled climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for R'dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The results of the study showed that the water balance in R'dom watershed is dominated by evapotranspiration and the water resources distribution within the watershed is uneven and follows a decreasing gradient matching the flow direction. The main results of climate change scenarios showed that R'dom watershed will undergo significant decrease of water resources availability with more economic impact under the scenario RCP8.5 as all areas hosting the economical activities will be affected and the highest changes of water yield should be under this scenario.

scholarly journals Modeling Hydrologic Response to Land Use and Climate Change in the Krueng Jreu Sub Watershed of Aceh Besar

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teuku Ferijal ◽  
Mustafril Bachtiar ◽  
Dewi Sri Jayanti ◽  
Dahlan Jafaruddin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Water Yield

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate impact of landuse and climate change on water resources in Krueng Jreu subwatershed located in Aceh Province – Indonesia. The subwatershed is a primary source of water to irrigated 233.52 km2 paddy field area through a surface irrigation system. The model performance was considerably good in predicting streamflow. The coefficients of determination varied between 0.58 and 0.72, while the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (ENS) ranged between 0.65-0.72 and the percentage bias were in the range of -0.36 to 2.30. Scenarios were applied to the best fit model to evaluate watershed responses to land use and climate changes. The model predicted increases in both runoff and water yield by 1% and 0.1% respectively as the result of increasing 15% settlement area. When all agricultural land within subwatershed converted to forest, water yield would increase by 1% during dry period and runoff contribution would decrease by 5%. Increases in surface flow by 23.6% and water yield by 15.1% were found under scenario of increasing 10% of daily precipitation. Increasing in evapotranspiration caused by an increase of 1.5⁰C in daily air temperature would decrease surface flow and water yield by 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively. Combination scenarios of changes in daily temperature and precipitation would increase evapotranspiration rate, annual water yield and runoff contribution.

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12037
Author(s):  
Jeong-Bae Kim ◽  
Jean de Dieu Habimana ◽  
Seon-Ho Kim ◽  
Deg-Hyo Bae
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Daily Streamflow

Burundi is susceptible to future water-related disasters, but examining the influence of climate change on regional hydroclimatic features is challenging due to a lack of local data and adaptation planning. This study investigated the influence of climate change on hydroclimate-focused changes in the climatology of heavy precipitation (and streamflow) means and extremes based on the multi-model ensemble mean of earth system models in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). For runoff analysis, hydrologic responses to future climate conditions were simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model over the Ruvubu River basin, Burundi. Temperature increases by 5.6 °C, with strong robustness, under future climate conditions. The mean annual precipitation (and runoff) undergoes large seasonal variations, with weak robustness. Precipitation (and streamflow) changes between the wet and dry seasons differ in signal and magnitude. However, alterations in both the amount and frequency of precipitation reveal the intensification of the water cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. Thus, the highest variability in the maximum daily streamflow is shown in months of long wet seasons, especially in the far future (2085). Without considering the regional climate characteristics and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, this behavior is expected to be enhanced in 2085 (compared with 2045) and increase the severity of extreme precipitation and flood risk. Climate change will cause alterations in the magnitude and seasonal distributions of extreme precipitation (and streamflow). These findings could be important for flood planning and mitigation measures to cope with climate change in Burundi.

scholarly journals Hydrologic evaluation and effects of climate change on the Nong Han Lake Basin, northeastern Thailand

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 992-1000
Author(s):  
Jirawat Supakosol ◽  
Kowit Boonrawd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Model Soil ◽  
Regional Climates ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Effective Water ◽  
Northeastern Thailand

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the future runoff into the Nong Han Lake under the effects of climate change. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been selected for this study. The calibration and validation were performed by comparing the simulated and observed runoff from gauging station KH90 for the period 2001–2003 and 2004–2005, respectively. Future climate projections were generated by Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The SWAT model yielded good results in comparison to the baseline; moreover, the results of the PRECIS model showed that both precipitations and temperatures increased. Consequently, the amount of runoff calculated by SWAT under the A2 and B2 scenarios was higher than that for the baseline. In addition, the amount of runoff calculated considering the A2 scenario was higher than that considering the B2 scenario, due to higher average annual precipitations in the former case. The methodology and results of this study constitute key information for stakeholders, especially for the development of effective water management systems in the lake, such as designing a rule curve to cope with any future incidents.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1313
Author(s):  
George Akoko ◽  
Tu Hoang Le ◽  
Takashi Gomi ◽  
Tasuku Kato
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

scholarly journals Hydrological simulation in a tropical humid basin in the Cerrado biome using the SWAT model

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 908-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richarde Marques da Silva ◽  
José Carlos Dantas ◽  
Joyce de Araújo Beltrão ◽  
Celso A. G. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Measured Variable ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Cerrado Biome ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
P Factor ◽  
Water Assessment

Abstract A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow in a tropical humid basin in the Cerrado biome, southeastern Brazil. This study was undertaken in the Upper São Francisco River basin, because this basin requires effective management of water resources in drought and high-flow periods. The SWAT model was calibrated for the period of 1978–1998 and validated for 1999–2007. To assess the model calibration and uncertainty, four indices were used: (a) coefficient of determination (R2); (b) Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS); (c) p-factor, the percentage of data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU); and (d) r-factor, the ratio of average thickness of the 95PPU band to the standard deviation of the corresponding measured variable. In this paper, average monthly streamflow from three gauges (Porto das Andorinhas, Pari and Ponte da Taquara) were used. The results indicated that the R2 values were 0.73, 0.80 and 0.76 and that the NS values were 0.68, 0.79 and 0.73, respectively, during the calibration. The validation also indicated an acceptable performance with R2 = 0.80, 0.76, 0.60 and NS = 0.61, 0.64 and 0.58, respectively. This study demonstrates that the SWAT model provides a satisfactory tool to assess basin streamflow and management in Brazil.

Climate Conditions and Biodiversity Decline

2022 ◽  
pp. 748-763
Author(s):  
Ashok K. Rathoure ◽  
Unnati Rajendrakumar Patel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Fragile Environment ◽  
Impact On Biodiversity ◽  
The Impact

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this chapter, the authors first examined the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem, notably showing that species can respond to climate challenges by shifting their climatic change. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges that affect all the natural ecosystems of the world. Due to the fragile environment, mountain ecosystems are the most vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Climatic change will affect vegetation, humans, animals, and ecosystem that will impact on biodiversity. Mountains have been recognized as important ecosystems by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Climate change will not only threaten the biodiversity, but also affect the socio-economic condition of the indigenous people of the state. Various activities like habitat loss, deforestation, and exploitation amplify the impact of climate change on biodiversity.

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