scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow Variations Based on the Budyko Framework

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee ◽  
Yeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Northern Taiwan

In recent years, the influence of climate change and human activity on the global environment have become a concern. It is essential to better understand the hydrologic environment to evaluate water availability and related issues. In this study, we perform a trend and breakpoint analysis on streamflow time series in the Lanyang, Keelung, Dahan, Fengshan, Youluo and Shangping River Basins in northern Taiwan. Furthermore, we apply the Budyko–Fu equation and the Budyko–Mezentsev–Choudhury–Yang equation to evaluate the elasticity of streamflow with respect to climate factors and the catchment characteristics parameter. We discuss the sensitivity of streamflow to climate factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), as well as sensitivity to human activities such as land use changes. We detected breakpoints in the streamflow time series for the Lanyang and Keelung rivers in in 1993 and 1990, respectively. The streamflow of Lanyang River increased by 32.50% during the variation period (1993–2017), with 109.00% of the variation caused by non-climate factors. The Keelung River’s streamflow was reduced by 18.11% during the variation period (1990–2017), and the dominant factor was climate change, accounting for 71.53% of the reduction. Sensitivity analysis showed that precipitation changes were the most sensitive factor of streamflow variation. For every 1% increase in precipitation, the streamflow would increase by 1.05% to 1.37%. These results could serve as a reference for the sustainable development of water resources and territorial policies in northern Taiwan.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

scholarly journals Change Drivers and Impacts in Arctic Wetland Landscapes—Literature Review and Gap Analysis

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samaneh Seifollahi-Aghmiuni ◽  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Magnus Land ◽  
Georgia Destouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Functional Aspects ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Arctic Wetlands ◽  
Natural Change

Wetlands are essential parts of Arctic landscapes, playing important roles for the sustainable development of the region, and linking to climate change and adaptation, ecosystem services, and the livelihood of local people. The effects of human and natural change drivers on key landscape characteristics of Arctic wetlands may be critical for ecosystem resilience, with some functional aspects still poorly understood. This paper reviews the scientific literature on change drivers for Arctic wetland landscapes, seeking to identify the main studied interactions among different drivers and landscape characteristics and their changes, as well as emerging research gaps in this context. In a total of 2232 studies of various aspects of Arctic wetland landscapes found in the literature, natural drivers and climate change have been the most studied change drivers so far, particularly regarding their impacts on carbon cycling, plant communities and biodiversity. In contrast, management plans, land use changes, and nutrient-pollutant loading, have not been investigated as much as human drivers of Arctic wetland change. This lack of study highlights essential gaps in wetland related research, and between such research and management of Arctic wetlands.

scholarly journals Human and Climate Effects on the Hamoun Wetlands

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 609-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeideh Maleki ◽  
Saeid Soltani Koupaei ◽  
Alireza Soffianian ◽  
Sassan Saatchi ◽  
Saeid Pourmanafi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Upstream Region ◽  
Ecosystem Recovery ◽  
Climate Effects

Abstract Negative impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been increasing, and both the intensification and the mitigation of these impacts are strongly linked with human activities. Management and reduction of human-induced disturbances on ecosystems can mitigate the effects of climate change and enhance the ecosystem recovery process. Here, we investigate coupled human and climate effects on the wetland ecosystem of the lower Helmand basin from 1977 to 2014. Using time series climate-variable data and land-use changes from Landsat time series imagery, we compared changes in ecosystem status between the upstream and downstream regions. Results show that despite a strong and prolonged drought in the region, the upstream region of the lower Helmand basin remained dominated by agriculture, causing severe water stress on the Hamoun wetlands downstream. The loss of available water in wetlands was followed by large-scale land abandonment in rural areas, migration to the cities, and increasing unemployment and economic hardship. Our results suggest that unsustainable land-use policies in the upstream region, combined with synergistic effects of human activities and climate in lower Helmand basin, have exacerbated the effects of water stress on local inhabitants in the downstream region.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Impacts of Anthropogenic Activities and Climate Variations on Vegetation Productivity Changes in China from 1985 to 2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1113
Author(s):  
Shahid Naeem ◽  
Yongqiang Zhang ◽  
Jing Tian ◽  
Faisal Mueen Qamer ◽  
Aamir Latif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Increasing Trends

Accurate assessment of vegetation dynamics provides important information for ecosystem management. Anthropogenic activities and climate variations are the major factors that primarily influence vegetation ecosystems. This study investigates the spatiotemporal impacts of climate factors and human activities on vegetation productivity changes in China from 1985 to 2015. Actual net primary productivity (ANPP) is used to reflect vegetation dynamics quantitatively. Climate-induced potential net primary productivity (PNPP) is used as an indicator of climate change, whereas the difference between PNPP and ANPP is considered as an indicator of human activities (HNPP). Overall, 91% of the total vegetation cover area shows declining trends for net primary productivity (NPP), while only 9% shows increasing trends before 2000 (base period). However, after 2000 (restoration period), 78.7% of the total vegetation cover area shows increasing trends, whereas 21.3% of the area shows decreasing trends. Moreover, during the base period, the quantitative contribution of climate change to NPP restoration is 0.21 grams carbon per meter square per year (gC m−2 yr−1) and to degradation is 2.41 gC m−2 yr−1, while during the restoration period, climate change contributes 0.56 and 0.29 gC m−2 yr−1 to NPP restoration and degradation, respectively. Human activities contribute 0.36 and 0.72 gC m−2 yr−1 during the base period, and 0.63 and 0.31 gC m−2 yr−1 during the restoration period to NPP restoration and degradation, respectively. The combined effects of climate and human activities restore 0.65 and 1.11 gC m−2 yr−1, and degrade 2.01 and 0.67 gC m−2 yr−1 during the base and restoration periods, respectively. Climate factors affect vegetation cover more than human activities, while precipitation is found to be more sensitive to NPP change than temperature. Unlike the base period, NPP per unit area increases with an increase in the human footprint pressure during the restoration period. Grassland has more variability than other vegetation classes, and the grassland changes are mainly observed in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia regions. The results may help policy-makers by providing necessary guidelines for the management of forest, grassland, and agricultural activities.

scholarly journals Method Consideration of Variation Diagnosis and Design Value Calculation of Flood Sequence in Yiluo River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2722
Author(s):  
Xinxin Li ◽  
Xixia Ma ◽  
Xiaodong Li ◽  
Wenjiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Design Flood

The conventional approaches of the design flood calculation are based on the assumption that the hydrological time series is subject to the same distribution in the past, present, and future, i.e., the series should be consistent. However, the traditional methods may result in overdesign in the water conservancy project since the series has non-stationary variations due to climate change and human activities. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new approach for frequency estimation of non-stationary time series of extreme values. This study used four kinds of mutation test methods (the linear trend correlation coefficient, Mann–Kendall test, sliding t-test, and Pettitt test) to identify the trend and mutation of the annual maximum flow series (1950–2006) of three hydrological stations in the Yiluo River Basin. Then we evaluated the performance of two types of design flood methods (the time series decomposition-synthesis method, the mixed distribution model) under the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydro-meteorological conditions. The results showed that (a) the design flood value obtained by the time series decomposition-synthesis method based on the series of the backward restore is larger than that obtained by the decomposition synthesis method based on the series of the forward restore; (b) when the return period is 100 years or less, the design flood value obtained by the mixed distribution model using the capacity ratio parameter estimation method is less than that obtained by the hybrid distribution model with simulated annealing parameter estimation method; and (c) both methods can overcome sequence inconsistency in design frequencies. This study provides insight into the frequency estimation of non-stationary time series of extreme values under the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydro-meteorological conditions.

scholarly journals Recent responses of grassland net primary productivity to climatic and anthropogenic factors in Kyrgyzstan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanwen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Grassland Degradation ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns

Net primary productivity (NPP) is an essential indicator of ecosystem function and sustainability and plays a vital role in the carbon cycle, especially in arid and semi-arid grassland ecosystems. Quantifying trends in NPP and identifying the contributing factors are important for understanding the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland degradation. We quantified spatial and temporal patterns in potential NPP (NPPP) and actual NPP (NPPA) in Kyrgyzstan from 2000 to 2014 based on the Zhou Guangsheng model and MOD17A3 NPP data, respectively. By calculating the difference between NPPP and NPPA, we inferred human-induced NPP (NPPH) and thereby characterised changes in grassland NPP attributable to anthropogenic activities. We found that over the past two decades, both climatic variation and anthropogenic activities have significantly affected Kyrgyzstan’s grasslands. Grassland NPP decreased overall but patterns varied between provinces. Climate change, in particular changes in precipitation was the dominant factor driving grassland degradation in the north but human pressures also contributed. In the south however, human activities were associated with extensive areas of grassland recovery. The results provide important contextual understanding for supporting policy for grassland maintenance and restoration under climate change and intensifying human pressures.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Analysis on the Hydrologic Alteration and Causes of River Runoff in Min River of the Yangtze River, China

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxian Guo ◽  
Haotong Zhou ◽  
Xuyang Jiao ◽  
Yongwei Zhu ◽  
Hongxiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Hydrologic Alteration ◽  
Ecological Benefits ◽  
Min River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Development And Utilization ◽  
Water Conservancy

Abstract The construction of water conservancy projects has changed the hydrological situation of rivers and has an essential impact on the river ecosystem. The influence modes of different factors on runoff alteration are discussed to improve the development and utilization of water resources and promote ecological benefits. The ecological, hydrological index change range method (IHA-RVA) and hydrological alteration degree method were comprehensively used to evaluate Min River's hydrological situation. Based on six budyko hypothesis formulas, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change are quantitatively analyzed. The study showed that the runoff of Min River basin showed a significant decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019 and a sudden alteration around 1993; The overall alteration in runoff conditions was 45% moderate, and the overall alteration in precipitation was 37% moderate; Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration also showed a decreasing trend within the same period, but the overall trend was not significant; The contribution of climate alteration to runoff alteration is 30.2%, and the contribution of human activities to runoff alteration is 69.8%, human activities are the dominant factor affecting the alteration of runoff situation in Min River basin.

scholarly journals STORM: A simple, flexible, and parsimonious stochastic rainfall generator for simulating climate and climate change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Bliss Singer ◽  
Katerina Michaelides ◽  
Daniel E. J. Hobley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Fine Grid ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
Storm Duration

Abstract. Assessments of water balance, watershed response, and landscape evolution to climate change require representation of spatially and temporally varying rainfall fields over a drainage basin, as well as the flexibility to simply modify key driving climate variables (evaporative demand, overall wetness, storminess). An empirical-stochastic approach to the problem of rainstorm simulation enables statistical realism and the creation of multiple ensembles that allow for statistical characterization and/or time series of the driving rainfall over a fine grid for any climate scenario. Here we provide detail on the STOchastic Rainfall Model (STORM), which uses this approach to simulate drainage basin rainfall. STORM simulates individual storms based on Monte Carlo selection from probability density functions (PDFs) of storm area, storm duration, storm intensity at the core, and storm center location. The model accounts for seasonality, orography, and the probability of storm intensity for a given storm duration. STORM also generates time series of potential evapotranspiration (PET), which are required for most physically based applications. We explain the how the model works and demonstrate its ability to simulate observed historical rainfall characteristics for a small watershed in SE Arizona. We explain the data requirements for STORM and its flexibility for simulating rainfall for various classes of climate change. Finally, we discuss several potential applications of STORM.

scholarly journals Response characteristics of water level dynamic of the Baiyangdian Wetland to climate change and human activities

2019 ◽  
Vol 131 ◽  
pp. 01071
Author(s):  
Xiaofan Qi ◽  
Dechao Yin ◽  
Yonghui An ◽  
Yushan Wang ◽  
Lei Gong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Wetland Water ◽  
Water Conservancy ◽  
Baiyangdian Wetland ◽  
And Control

Water level dynamics of Wetlands are influenced by both climate change and human activities. Understanding the influence characteristics is important for the management of wetland water resources and ecology. Based on the water level dynamic and precipitation of the Baiyangdian Wetland, and the NPI index, the paper analyzes the response characteristics of the water level dynamic to the precipitation, and the teleconnections between the water level dynamic and the NPI by adopting method of wavelet analysis. Results show that climate change plays an important role on the response of the water level dynamic to the precipitation and also to the NPI, and human activities can significantly change the response characteristics. The response time lags of the water level dynamics to the NPI is longer than that of the water level dynamics to the precipitations, which indicates that the wetland precipitation might be partially influenced by the NPI. The knowledge of the response characteristics obtained in the paper is beneficial for water conservancy and control of the wetland, and is favorable for the sustainable development of its eco-environment.

scholarly journals Streamflow into Beijing and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities over the Period 1956–2016

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Mu ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
Guohua He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Human Effects

Streamflow is likely affected by climate change and human activities. In this study, hydro-meteorological data from six rivers upstream of Beijing, namely, the Yongdinghe, Baihe, Heihe, Chaohe, Juhe, and Jumahe Rivers, were analyzed to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow and their responses to climate change and human activities over the period of 1956–2016. The Mann–Kendall test and moving t-test were used to detect trends and changing points of the annual streamflow. Results showed that the streamflow into Beijing experienced a statistically significant downward trend (p < 0.05), abruptly changing after the early 1980s, owing to climate and human effects. The climate elasticities of the streamflow showed that a 10% decrease in precipitation would result in a 24.5% decrease in total streamflow, whereas a 10% decrease in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 37.7% increase in total streamflow. Human activities accounted for 87% of the reduction in total streamflow, whereas 13% was attributed to climate change. Lastly, recommendations are provided for adaptive management of water resources at different spatial scales.

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