scholarly journals Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events over East Asia at Different Global Warming Levels

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2535
Author(s):  
Jintao Zhang ◽  
Fang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Limiting the global temperature increase to a level that would prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” is the focus of intergovernmental climate negotiations, and the cost-benefit analysis to determine this level requires an understanding of how the risk associated with climate extremes varies with different warming levels. We examine daily extreme temperature and precipitation variances with continuous global warming using a non-stationary extreme value statistical model based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results show the probability of extreme warm and heavy precipitation events over East Asia (EA) will increase, while that of cold extremes over EA will decrease as global warming increases. A present-day 1-in-20-year heavy precipitation extreme in EA is projected to increase to 1.3, 1.6, 2.5, and 3.4 times more frequently of the current climatology, at the global mean warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C above the preindustrial era, respectively. Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer events. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the future risk associated with climate extremes, which helps scientists create mitigation measures for global warming and facilitates policy-making.

scholarly journals Which Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Best Explain the Variation of Warm versus Cold Years and Wet versus Dry Years?

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-Sheng Ye ◽  
Yan-Hong Gong ◽  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Jiao Ren ◽  
Xiao-Ke Bai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Ecosystem Response ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Intensifying climate extremes are one of the major concerns with climate change. Using 100-yr (1911–2010) daily temperature and precipitation records worldwide, 28 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation are calculated. A similarity percentage analysis is used to identify the key indices for distinguishing how extreme warm and cold years (annual temperature above the 90th and below the 10th percentile of the 100-yr distribution, respectively) differ from one another and from average years, and how extreme wet and dry years (annual precipitation above the 90th and below the 10th percentile of the 100-yr distribution, respectively) differ from each other and from average years. The analysis suggests that extreme warm years are primarily distinguished from average and extreme cold years by higher occurrence of warm nights (annual counts when night temperature >90th percentile), which occur about six more counts in extreme warm years compared with average years. Extreme wet years are mainly distinguished from average and extreme dry years by more occurrences of heavy precipitation events (events with ≥10 mm and ≥20 mm precipitation). Compared with average years, heavy events occur 60% more in extreme wet years and 50% less in extreme dry years. These indices consistently differ between extreme and average years across terrestrial ecoregions globally. These key indices need to be considered when analyzing climate model projections and designing climate change experiments that focus on ecosystem response to climate extremes.

Signals of Climate Change and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Climate Extremes in the Homogeneous Climatic Zones of Pakistan During 1962-2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firdos Khan ◽  
Shaukat Ali ◽  
Christoph Mayer ◽  
Hamd Ullah ◽  
Sher Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
North Pakistan ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Abstract This study investigates contemporary climate change and spatio-temporal analysis of climate extremes in Pakistan (divided into five homogenous climate zones) using observed data, categorized between 1962–1990 and 1991–2019. The results show that on the average, the changes in temperature and precipitation are significant at 5 % significance level throughout Pakistan in most of the seasons. The spatio-temporal trend analysis of consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except in zone 4 indicating throughout decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days) and R25mm (extremely heavy precipitation days) are significantly decreasing (increasing) during 1962–1990 (1991–2019) in North Pakistan. Summer days (SU25) increased across the country, except in zone 4 with a decrease. TX10p (Cool days) decreased across the country except an increase in zone 1 and zone 2 during 1962–1990. TX90p (Warm days) has an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except zone 5 and decreasing trend during 1962–1990 except zone 2 and 5. The Mann-Kendal test indicates increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperature (JJA) in the Karakoram region during 1962–1990. The decadal analysis suggests decreasing precipitation during 1991–2019 and increasing temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010–2019 which is in line with the recently confirmed slight mass loss of glaciers against Karakoram Anomaly.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Seismic Mitigation Measures for Wine Barrel Stacks

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-299
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Jaimes ◽  
Gabriel Candia ◽  
Philomène Favier
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Benefit Cost

This study conducts a cost-benefit analysis of alternative seismic risk mitigation methods for wine barrel stacks. The Chilean wine industry is presented as an illustrative case study in which performance metrics, such as the expected annual loss (EAL) and benefit-cost ratios, are computed for wineries at different locations. By computing seismic risk within a consistent framework, this study shows the value of cost-benefit simulations for defining the best mitigation strategies and allocating economic resources. Likewise, this approach helps communicate information to decision makers because it is presented in a simple and transparent way, even if they are not familiar with formal risk studies. For three-level wine barrel stacks, it was observed that the Cradle Extender® (MS1) prevents a large number of barrel collapses and provides the highest benefit-cost ratio. On the other hand, for six-level wine barrel stacks, the prestressed cable (MS2) is more effective than MS1 as it prevents the barrel stack from overturning. No significant loss reduction is apparent in four- and five-level wine barrel stacks with the use of mitigation strategies; indeed, the mitigation strategies could generate greater losses and, therefore, other alternatives must be proposed.

scholarly journals Climate Extremes over the Arabian Peninsula Using RegCM4 for Present Conditions Forced by Several CMIP5 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almazroui
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

This paper investigates the temperature and precipitation extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using data from the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and ERA–Interim reanalysis data. Indices of extremes are calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations located across Saudi Arabia in line with the suggested procedure from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the present climate (1986–2005) using 1981–2000 as the reference period. The results show that RegCM4 accurately captures the main features of temperature extremes found in surface observations. The results also show that RegCM4 with the CLM land–surface scheme performs better in the simulation of precipitation and minimum temperature, while the BATS scheme is better than CLM in simulating maximum temperature. Among the three CMIP5 models, the two best performing models are found to accurately reproduce the observations in calculating the extreme indices, while the other is not so successful. The reason for the good performance by these two models is that they successfully capture the circulation patterns and the humidity fields, which in turn influence the temperature and precipitation patterns that determine the extremes over the study region.

scholarly journals Global Warming Will Aggravate Ozone Pollution in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1267-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina L. Archer ◽  
Joseph F. Brodie ◽  
Sara A. Rauscher
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThe goal of this study is to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic climate change on air quality, in particular on ozone, during the summer in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. First, we establish a connection between high-ozone (HO) days, defined as those with observed 8-h average ozone concentration greater than 70 parts per billion (ppb), and certain weather patterns, called synoptic types. We identify four summer synoptic types that most often are associated with HO days based on a 30-yr historical period (1986–2015) using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Second, we define thresholds for mean near-surface temperature and precipitation that characterize HO days during the four HO synoptic types. Next, we look at climate projections from five models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the early and late midcentury (2025–34 and 2045–54) and analyze the frequency of HO days. We find a general increasing trend, weaker in the early midcentury and stronger in the late midcentury, with 2 and 5 extra HO days per year, respectively, from 16 in 2015. These 5 extra days are the result of two processes. On one hand, the four HO synoptic types will increase in frequency, which explains about 1.5–2 extra HO days. The remaining 3–3.5 extra days are explained by the increase in near-surface temperatures during the HO synoptic types. Future air quality regulations, which have been successful in the historical period at reducing ozone concentrations in the mid-Atlantic, may need to become stricter to compensate for the underlying increasing trends from global warming.

scholarly journals Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 1169-1182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Zhi-Jun Yao ◽  
Li-Guang Jiang ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Shan-Shan Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Maximum Depth ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Mongolian Plateau ◽  
Catastrophic Events ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Changes ◽  
Average Maximum

AbstractThe spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. A decreasing trend was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7–11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951 to 2012. A decreasing trend was observed for the maximum depth of snowfall from 1951 to 2012, with a decreased average maximum depth of 10 mm from the 1990s.

scholarly journals Asymmetrical response of summer rainfall in East Asia to CO2 forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Se-Yong Song ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

Abstract Understanding the regional hydrological response to varying CO2 concentration is critical for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation and adaptation polices in the near future. To characterize summer monsoon rainfall change in East Asia due to a change in the CO2 pathway, we used the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with 28 ensemble members in which the CO2 concentration increases at a rate of 1% per year until its quadrupling peak, i.e., 1,468 ppm (ramp-up period), followed by a decrease of 1% per year until the present-day climate conditions, i.e., 367 ppm (ramp-down period). Although the CO2 concentration change is symmetric in time, the rainfall response is not symmetric. The amount of summer rainfall in East Asia is much larger during a ramp-down period than during a ramp-up period when the two periods of the same CO2 concentration are compared. This asymmetrical rainfall response is mainly due to an enhanced El Niño-like warming pattern as well as an increase in the meridional sea surface temperature gradient in the western North Pacific during a ramp-down period. These sea surface temperature patterns enhance the atmospheric teleconnections to East Asia and the local meridional circulations around East Asia, resulting in more rainfall over East Asia during the ramp-down period. This result implies that the removal of CO2 does not guarantee the return of regional rainfall to the previous climate state with the same CO2 concentration.

scholarly journals Complementing CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction by solar radiation management might strongly enhance future welfare

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 453-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koen G. Helwegen ◽  
Claudia E. Wieners ◽  
Jason E. Frank ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
Radiation Management

Abstract. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to reduce global warming in spite of high greenhouse-gas concentrations and to lower the chance of warming-induced tipping points. However, SRM may cause economic damages and its feasibility is still uncertain. To investigate the trade-off between these (economic) gains and damages, we incorporate SRM into a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model and perform the first rigorous cost–benefit analysis of sulfate-based SRM under uncertainty, treating warming-induced climate tipping and SRM failure as stochastic elements. We find that within our model, SRM has the potential to greatly enhance future welfare and merits being taken seriously as a policy option. However, if only SRM and no CO2 abatement is used, global warming is not stabilised and will exceed 2 K. Therefore, even if successful, SRM can not replace but only complement CO2 abatement. The optimal policy combines CO2 abatement and modest SRM and succeeds in keeping global warming below 2 K.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document