scholarly journals Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 1169-1182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Zhi-Jun Yao ◽  
Li-Guang Jiang ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Shan-Shan Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Maximum Depth ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Mongolian Plateau ◽  
Catastrophic Events ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Changes ◽  
Average Maximum

AbstractThe spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. A decreasing trend was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7–11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951 to 2012. A decreasing trend was observed for the maximum depth of snowfall from 1951 to 2012, with a decreased average maximum depth of 10 mm from the 1990s.

scholarly journals Are Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Increasing over the U.S. High Plains?

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (16) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Long ◽  
Bridget R. Scanlon ◽  
D. Nelun Fernando ◽  
Lei Meng ◽  
Steven M. Quiring
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Gridded Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Large-scale environmental, social, and economic impacts of recent weather and climate extremes are raising questions about whether the frequency and intensity of these extremes have been increasing. Here, the authors evaluate trends in climate extremes during the past half century using the U.S. High Plains as a case study. A total of eight different extreme indices and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data from 207 stations and 0.25° gridded data. The 1958–2010 time period was selected to exclude the 1950s and 2011 droughts. Results show general consistency between the station data and gridded data. The annual extreme temperature range (ETR) decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in ~54% of the High Plains, with a spatial mean rate of −0.7°C decade−1. Decreases in ETR result primarily from increases in annual lowest temperature in ~63% of the stations at a mean rate of ~0.9°C decade−1, whereas increases in annual highest temperature were much less. Approximately 43% of the stations showed increasing warm nights (Tmin90) with a spatial mean rate of 0.5% decade−1. Precipitation intensity generally did not vary significantly in most grid cells and stations. Significant decreasing trends in consecutive dry days (CDD) were restricted to 21% of the stations in the northern High Plains with a spatial mean of −0.8 days decade−1. Areas experiencing severe dry periods (1-month SPI < −1.5) decreased over time from 8% to 4%. The number of dry months (SPI < 0) in each year also decreased. In summary, the ETR is decreasing and low temperatures are increasing. Precipitation extremes are generally not changing in the High Plains; however, high natural climatic variability in this semiarid region makes it difficult to assess climate extremes.

scholarly journals Estimating changes of temperatures and precipitation extremes in India using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kishore Pangaluru ◽  
Isabella Velicogna ◽  
Tyler C. Sutterley ◽  
Yara Mohajerani ◽  
Enrico Ciraci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value ◽  
Gev Distribution ◽  
Cold Extreme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation may give some of the largest significant societal and ecological impacts. For changes in the magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation over India, we used a statistical model of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV statistical distribution is a time-dependent distribution with different time scales of variability bounded by a precipitation, maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) temperature extremes and also assessed their possibility changes are evaluated and quantified over India is presented. The GEV-based method is applied on both precipitation and temperature extremes over India during the 20th and 21st centuries using multiple coupled climate models taking an interest in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observational datasets. The regional means of historical warm extreme temperatures are 34.89, 36.42, and 38.14 °C for three different (10, 20, and 50-year) periods, respectively; whereas the cold extreme mean temperatures are 7.75, 4.19, and −1.57 °C. It indicates that 20th century cold extreme temperatures have relatively larger variations than the warm extremes. As for the future, the CMIP5 models of warm extreme regional mean values increase from 0.33 to 0.75 °C in all return periods (10-, 20-, and 50-year periods), while in the case of cold extreme means values vary between 0.58 and 2.29 °C. In the future, cold extreme values have a larger increasing rate over the northwest, northeast, some parts of north-central, and Inter Peninsula regions. The CRU precipitation extremes are larger than the historical extreme precipitation in all three (10, 20, and 50-year) return-periods.

scholarly journals Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events over East Asia at Different Global Warming Levels

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2535
Author(s):  
Jintao Zhang ◽  
Fang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Limiting the global temperature increase to a level that would prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” is the focus of intergovernmental climate negotiations, and the cost-benefit analysis to determine this level requires an understanding of how the risk associated with climate extremes varies with different warming levels. We examine daily extreme temperature and precipitation variances with continuous global warming using a non-stationary extreme value statistical model based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results show the probability of extreme warm and heavy precipitation events over East Asia (EA) will increase, while that of cold extremes over EA will decrease as global warming increases. A present-day 1-in-20-year heavy precipitation extreme in EA is projected to increase to 1.3, 1.6, 2.5, and 3.4 times more frequently of the current climatology, at the global mean warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C above the preindustrial era, respectively. Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer events. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the future risk associated with climate extremes, which helps scientists create mitigation measures for global warming and facilitates policy-making.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Precipitation Extremes in the Inner Mongolian Plateau: Spatial-Temporal Patterns, Causes, and Implications

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunlan Li ◽  
Walter Leal Filho ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Hubert Fudjumdjum ◽  
Mariia Fedoruk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Mongolian Plateau ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Study Interval ◽  
Variation Characteristics

To improve how extreme events and climate variations are managed, there is a need to foster a deeper understanding of their interconnections. Consistent with this objective, this paper describes how precipitation extremes change both temporally and spatially in the Inner Mongolian Plateau (IMP), China and explains their causal factors. The paper refers to data collected from 43 meteorological stations in IMP and describes how precipitation extremes formed and how they influence agriculture. Data gathered and presented in this paper may be useful in understanding the extent to which the IMP is being influenced by global environmental change. This study reveals that the eleven precipitation extremes indices, except the number of precipitation days with over 0.5 mm (R0.5), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), and total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), decreased in the IMP between 1959 and 2014, and most of them were non-significant in temporal. But the dry index has a larger magnitude decreasing trend than that of the wet indices, which can indicate that the dry situation was alleviated in IMP during the study interval. This study also indicated that precipitation extremes have strong relationships with elevation, latitude, and longitude. Atmospheric circulation and topography may be further primary reasons which result in the spatial variation characteristics in precipitation extremes over the IMP. Decreases in precipitation extremes, together with human activities such as livestock improvement and ecological restoration programs, has a positive effect in gross output value of agriculture and animal husbandry in the IMP. The results contribute to a deeper insight on the possible impacts of precipitation extremes and support the development of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with climate extremes. This paper further proposes science-based policies for grassland protection, agriculture, and animal husbandry on the national or regional and herdsman scales.

scholarly journals Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Richard Bintanja
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Probability Ratio ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Individual Contributions ◽  
Mean Climate

AbstractThe frequency of climate extremes will change in response to shifts in both mean climate and climate variability. These individual contributions, and thus the fundamental mechanisms behind changes in climate extremes, remain largely unknown. Here we apply the probability ratio concept in large-ensemble climate simulations to attribute changes in extreme events to either changes in mean climate or climate variability. We show that increased occurrence of monthly high-temperature events is governed by a warming mean climate. In contrast, future changes in monthly heavy-precipitation events depend to a considerable degree on trends in climate variability. Spatial variations are substantial however, highlighting the relevance of regional processes. The contributions of mean and variability to the probability ratio are largely independent of event threshold, magnitude of warming and climate model. Hence projections of temperature extremes are more robust than those of precipitation extremes, since the mean climate is better understood than climate variability.

scholarly journals Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipesh Chapagain ◽  
Sanita Dhaubanjar ◽  
Luna Bharati
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

AbstractExisting climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low- and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.

scholarly journals A Multiregion Assessment of Observed Changes in the Areal Extent of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (23) ◽  
pp. 9206-9220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea J. Dittus ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Sophie C. Lewis ◽  
Lisa V. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Areal Fraction ◽  
Extreme Indices

Abstract This study examines trends in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes across five large-scale regions using the climate extremes index (CEI) framework. Analyzing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in terms of areal fraction provides information from a different perspective and can be useful for climate monitoring. Trends in five temperature and precipitation components are analyzed, calculated using a new method based on standard extreme indices. These indices, derived from daily meteorological station data, are obtained from two global land-based gridded extreme indices datasets. The four continental-scale regions of Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia are analyzed over the period from 1951 to 2010, where sufficient data coverage is available. These components are also computed for the entire Northern Hemisphere, providing the first CEI results at the hemispheric scale. Results show statistically significant increases in the percentage area experiencing much-above-average warm days and nights and much-below-average cool days and nights for all regions, with the exception of North America for maximum temperature extremes. Increases in the area affected by precipitation extremes are also found for the Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly Europe and North America.

scholarly journals Consistency of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes across Various Global Gridded In Situ and Reanalysis Datasets

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 5019-5035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Simon Wild ◽  
Lisa V. Alexander ◽  
Tanya Lippmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Changes in climate extremes are often monitored using global gridded datasets of climate extremes based on in situ observations or reanalysis data. This study assesses the consistency of temperature and precipitation extremes between these datasets. Both the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of annual extremes of daily values are compared across multiple global gridded datasets of in situ observations and reanalyses to make inferences on the robustness of the obtained results. While normalized time series generally compare well, the actual values of annual extremes of daily data differ systematically across the different datasets. This is partly related to different computational approaches when calculating the gridded fields of climate extremes. There is strong agreement between extreme temperatures in the different in situ–based datasets. Larger differences are found for temperature extremes from the reanalyses, particularly during the presatellite era, indicating that reanalyses are most consistent with purely observational-based analyses of changes in climate extremes for the three most recent decades. In terms of both temporal and spatial correlations, the ECMWF reanalyses tend to show greater agreement with the gridded in situ–based datasets than the NCEP reanalyses and Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25). Extreme precipitation is characterized by higher temporal and spatial variability than extreme temperatures, and there is less agreement between different datasets than for temperature. However, reasonable agreement between the gridded observational precipitation datasets remains. Extreme precipitation patterns and time series from reanalyses show lower agreement but generally still correlate significantly.

scholarly journals Evidence of climate shift for temperature and precipitation extremes across Gansu Province in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 139 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1137-1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong An ◽  
Yiheng Du ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
Zuirong Niu ◽  
Linus Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Indices

AbstractTemperature and precipitation extremes are the dominant causes of natural disasters. In this study, seven indices of extreme temperature and precipitation events in Gansu Province, China, were analysed for the period 1961–2017. An abrupt climate shift was recorded during 1980–1981. Thus, the study period was divided into a preshift (before the climate shift) period 1961–1980 and an aftshift (after the climate shift) period 1981–2017. Comparison of mean extreme indices for preshift and aftshift periods was performed for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied spatially to fit the extreme indices with return periods up to 100 years for preshift/aftshift periods. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was adopted to investigate possible correlation between the extreme climate events and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results indicate that changes in mean and return levels between the preshift and aftshift periods vary significantly in time and space for different extreme indices. Increase in extreme temperature regarding magnitude and frequency for the aftshift period as compared with the preshift period suggests a change to a warmer and more extreme climate during recent years. Changes in precipitation extremes were different in southern and northern parts of Gansu. The precipitation extremes in the north have increased that can result in more serious floods and droughts in the future. SVD analyses revealed a complex pattern of correlation between climate extremes and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Strengthening of westerlies and weakening of the south summer monsoon contribute to the complex changing patterns of precipitation extremes. Results in this study will contribute to disaster risk prevention and better water management in this area.

scholarly journals Regional Sensitivities Strongly Affect Modeled Climate Extremes

Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Shultz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Two Generations

Analysis of temperature and precipitation extremes in two generations of CMIP climate models revealed similarities in regional climate sensitivities, contrasting with divergent global sensitivities.

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