scholarly journals Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Northern Shaanxi Based on Copula Function

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1445
Author(s):  
Junhui Wang ◽  
Guangzhi Rong ◽  
Kaiwei Li ◽  
Jiquan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Short Duration ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The South ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
Northern Shaanxi

Precipitation is low and drought occurs frequently in Northern Shaanxi. To study the characteristics and occurrence and development of drought events in Northern Shaanxi is beneficial to the prevention and control of drought disasters. Based on the monthly rainfall data of 10 meteorological stations in Northern Shaanxi from 1960 to 2019, the characteristic variables of drought events at each meteorological station in Northern Shaanxi were extracted by using run theory and copula function. The joint probability distribution and recurrence period were obtained by combining the duration and intensity of drought, and the relationship between drought characteristics and crop drought affected area was studied. The results show that (1) from 1960 to 2019, drought events mainly occurred in Northern Shaanxi with long duration and low severity, short duration and high severity, or short duration and low severity, among which the frequency of drought events that occurred in Yuyang and Baota districts was higher. The frequency of light drought and extreme drought was more in the south and less in the north, while the frequency of moderate drought and severe drought was more in the north and less in the south. (2) The optimal edge distribution of drought intensity and drought duration in Northern Shaanxi is generalized Pareto distribution, and the optimal fitting function is Frank copula function. The greater the duration and intensity of drought, the greater the cumulative probability and return period. (3) The actual recurrence interval and the theoretical recurrence interval of drought events in Northern Shaanxi were close, and the error was only 0.1–0.3a. The results of the joint return period can accurately reflect the actual situation, and this study can provide effective guidance for the prevention and management of agricultural dryland in Northern Shaanxi.

scholarly journals Analysis and Application of Drought Characteristics Based on Theory of Runs and Copulas in Yunnan, Southwest China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 4654
Author(s):  
Liping Wang ◽  
Xingnan Zhang ◽  
Shufang Wang ◽  
Mohamed Khaled Salahou ◽  
Yuanhao Fang
Keyword(s):  
Short Duration ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Joint Return ◽  
Drought Duration And Severity ◽  
Drought Characteristic

Drought is a complex natural disaster phenomenon. It is of great significance to analyze the occurrence and development of drought events for drought prevention. In this study, two drought characteristic variables (the drought duration and severity) were extracted by using the Theory of Runs based on four drought indexes (i.e., the percentage of precipitation anomaly, the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and the improved comprehensive meteorological drought index). The joint distribution model of drought characteristic variables was built based on four types of Archimedean copulas. The joint cumulative probability and the joint return period of drought events were analyzed and the relationship between the drought characteristics and the actual crop drought reduction area was also studied. The results showed that: (1) The area of the slight drought and the extreme drought were both the zonal increasing distribution from northeast to southwest in Yunnan Province from 1960 to 2015. The area of the high frequency middle drought was mainly distributed in Huize and Zhanyi in Northeast Yunnan, Kunming in Central Yunnan and some areas of Southwest Yunnan, whereas the severe drought was mainly occurred in Deqin, Gongshan and Zhongdian in Northwest Yunnan; (2) The drought duration and severity were fitted the Weibull and Gamma distribution, respectively and the Frank copula function was the optimal joint distribution function. The Drought events were mostly short duration and high severity, long duration and low severity and short duration and low severity. The joint cumulative probability and joint return period were increased with the increase of drought duration and severity; (3) The error range between the theoretical return period and the actual was 0.1–0.4 a. The year of the agricultural disaster can be accurately reflected by the combined return period in Yunnan Province. The research can provide guidelines for the agricultural management in the drought area.

scholarly journals Analysis of Characteristics of Dry–Wet Events Abrupt Alternation in Northern Shaanxi, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 2384
Author(s):  
Junhui Wang ◽  
Guangzhi Rong ◽  
Kaiwei Li ◽  
Jiquan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Joint Probability Distribution ◽  
Northern Area ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Northern Shaanxi ◽  
Yulin City

In this study, Yulin city and Yan’an city in northern Shaanxi Province were taken as the study area. Based on the diurnal dry–wet events abrupt alternation index DWAAI, the joint probability distribution of two characteristic variables of “urgency” and “alternation” of dry–wet events abrupt alternation was established by using copula function, and the characteristics of dry–wet events abrupt alternation were analyzed. DWAAI was calculated from daily precipitation data and the applicability of the index was verified. On this basis, the two characteristic variables of “urgency” and “alternation” were separated, and the appropriate marginal distribution function was selected to fit them, and the correlation between the two variables was evaluated. Finally, the appropriate copula function was selected to fit the bivariate of each station, and the joint cumulative probability and recurrence period of the two variables were calculated. The results show that the DWAAI index is suitable for the identification of dry–wet events abrupt alternation in the study area. Light and moderate dry–wet events abrupt alternation occurs more frequently, while severe events rarely occur in the study area. The frequency of severe dry–wet events abrupt alternation in Jingbian station and its northern area is greater than that in the southern area, and the risk of dry–wet events abrupt alternation of disasters in the northern area is higher. The greater the degree of “urgency” and “alternation”, the greater the joint cumulative probability and the greater the return period. The return period of severe dry–wet events abrupt alternation was more than five years, while the return period of light and moderate dry–wet events abrupt alternation was less than five years.

scholarly journals Meteorological Drought Changes and Related Circulation Characteristics in Yulin City of the Northern Shaanxi from 1961 to 2015

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1196
Author(s):  
Yixing Yin ◽  
Lijuan Zhang ◽  
Xiaojun Wang ◽  
Wucheng Xu ◽  
Wenjun Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Precipitation Process ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
The North ◽  
Northern Shaanxi ◽  
Yulin City

This study explored the spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological drought change and the mechanisms of drought occurrence in Yulin City of the northern Shaanxi by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and composite analysis based on the meteorological observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2015. The main findings of the research are as follows: (1) In the annual and seasonal drought series, there is a non-significant trend toward drought in summer, while there are non-significant trends toward wetness for the other series. Overall, the frequency of drought is low in the southeast and high in the west and the north of the study area. (2) EOF1 is characterized by a uniform pattern in the whole region, i.e., there is a feature of consistent drought or flood in Yulin City. EOF2, EOF3 and EOF4 mainly indicate opposite characteristics of the changes of floods and droughts in the eastern/western parts and the southeast/other parts in the study area. (3) In the summer of the typical drought (flood) years, the study area is controlled by the northwest airflow behind the trough (zonal airflow at the bottom of low-pressure trough), and the meridional circulation (zonal circulation) is distributed in the mid-latitudes, which is conducive to the intrusion of cold air into the south (north) of China. The cold and warm air intersection area is to the south (to the north). The water vapor flux is weak (strong) and the water vapor divergence (convergence) prohibits (enhances) the precipitation process in the study area.

scholarly journals From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 2483-2505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy J. Barker ◽  
Jamie Hannaford ◽  
Andrew Chiverton ◽  
Cecilia Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Propagation Characteristics ◽  
The South ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

Abstract. Drought monitoring and early warning (M & EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M & EW systems typically make use of drought indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but such indicators are not widely used in the UK. More generally, such tools have not been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the propagation from one to the other, using the SPI and the related Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), with the objective of improving understanding of the drought hazard in the UK. SPI and SSI time series were calculated for 121 near-natural catchments in the UK for accumulation periods of 1–24 months. From these time series, drought events were identified and for each event, the duration and severity were calculated. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought was examined by cross-correlating the 1-month SSI with various SPI accumulation periods. Finally, the influence of climate and catchment properties on the hydrological drought characteristics and propagation was investigated. Results showed that at short accumulation periods meteorological drought characteristics showed little spatial variability, whilst hydrological drought characteristics showed fewer but longer and more severe droughts in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK. Propagation characteristics showed a similar spatial pattern with catchments underlain by productive aquifers, mostly in the south and east, having longer SPI accumulation periods strongly correlated with the 1-month SSI. For catchments in the north and west of the UK, which typically have little catchment storage, standard-period average annual rainfall was strongly correlated with hydrological drought and propagation characteristics. However, in the south and east, catchment properties describing storage (such as base flow index, the percentage of highly productive fractured rock and typical soil wetness) were more influential on hydrological drought characteristics. This knowledge forms a basis for more informed application of standardised indicators in the UK in the future, which could aid in the development of improved M & EW systems. Given the lack of studies applying standardised indicators to hydrological droughts, and the diversity of catchment types encompassed here, the findings could prove valuable for enhancing the hydrological aspects of drought M & EW systems in both the UK and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Copula Based Spatial Analysis of Drought Return Period in Southwest of Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Kavianpour ◽  
Mohammadreza Seyedabadi ◽  
Saber Moazami ◽  
Omid Aminoroayaie Yamini
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Khuzestan Province ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Southwest Of Iran

In the past years, Khuzestan province which is located in the southwest of Iran has experienced severe droughts. Drought can be explained by its characteristics known as duration or severity. However, combination of the two features by probabilistic approach is appeared to be a well improved method to describe the phenomena. The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate statistical method of determining drought based on simultaneous analysis of two drought characteristics. Here, precipitation data from twenty stations were used to determine drought characteristics, by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Joint probability function of two variables were built via copula functions. The drought return period was calculated in the form of two scenarios. The first scenario is, based on an assumption that drought is recognized by at least one of the two specific characteristics. Drought in the second scenario is distinguished by the two characteristics in a joint probabilistic form. According to research results, there was no significant difference between the north and south of Khuzestan in the study of single characteristics of drought. While analyzing two characteristics of the drought, the return period in the north was shorter than the south. The return period of droughts in the east was always shorter than in the west. The drought return period varies from 30 to 52 months and 50 to 87 months for the first and second scenarios, respectively.

scholarly journals From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 12827-12875 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. J. Barker ◽  
J. Hannaford ◽  
A. Chiverton ◽  
C. Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Propagation Characteristics ◽  
The South ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The North ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

Abstract. Drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) systems are a crucial component of drought preparedness. M&EW systems typically make use of drought indicators such as the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), but such indicators are not widely used in the UK. More generally, such tools have not been well developed for hydrological (i.e. streamflow) drought. To fill these research gaps, this paper characterises meteorological and hydrological droughts, and the propagation from one to the other using the SPI and the related Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), with the objective of improving understanding of the drought hazard in the UK. SPI and SSI time series were calculated for 121 near-natural catchments in the UK for accumulation periods of 1–24 months. From these time series, drought events were identified and for each event, the duration and severity was calculated. The relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought was examined by cross-correlating the one month SSI with various SPI accumulation periods. Finally, the influence of climate and catchment properties on the drought characteristics and propagation were investigated. Results showed that at short accumulation periods meteorological drought characteristics showed little spatial variability, whilst hydrological drought characteristics showed fewer but longer and more severe droughts in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK. Propagation characteristics showed a similar spatial pattern with catchments underlain by productive aquifers, mostly in the south and east, having longer SPI accumulation periods strongly correlated with the one-month SSI. For catchments in the north and west of the UK, which typically have little catchment storage, standard-period annual average rainfall was strongly correlated to drought and propagation characteristics. However, in the south and east, catchment properties describing storage, such as base flow index, percentage of highly productive fractured rock and typical soil wetness, were more influential on drought characteristics. This knowledge forms a basis for more informed application of standardised indicators in the UK in future, which could aid in the development of improved M&EW systems. Given the paucity of studies applying standardised indicators to hydrological droughts, and the diversity of catchment types encompassed here, the findings could prove valuable for enhancing the hydrological aspects of M&EW systems elsewhere in the world.

scholarly journals Multivariate drought risk analysis based on copula functions: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 2375-2388
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Seyedabadi ◽  
Mohammadreza Kavianpour ◽  
Saber Moazami
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Multiple Variables

Abstract Drought is asserted as a natural disaster that encompasses vast territories for a long time and affects human life. Indicators are powerful tools for understanding this phenomenon. However, in order to get more information about the drought, multivariate indices were introduced for simultaneous evaluation of multiple variables. In this study, a combined drought index (CDI) based on three drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Standardized Water-level Index (SWI), is defined. Then, the Entropy method is used to determine the weight of each indicator. Among the calculated weights, SDI and SPI had the highest and lowest weight, respectively. The CDI is utilized to identify drought characteristics, such as duration and severity. In addition, the joint distribution function of drought characteristics is formed by copula functions and consequently the probability of different droughts is calculated. For the study area, data and information from eight regions located in Golestan province in the northern part of Iran are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed index. Four categories of drought were defined and their return period calculated. The shortest return period of severe drought was observed in the east and then in the west. In the south and center, the return period of severe drought was longer. Over the course of 30 years, all parts of the province experienced all drought categories.

Long-term Cyclic Variations of Prominences, Green and Red Coronae over Solar Cycles

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 201-204
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Emission Lines ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Green Line ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The South ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
The North ◽  
Cyclic Variations

AbstractLong-term cyclic variations in the distribution of prominences and intensities of green (530.3 nm) and red (637.4 nm) coronal emission lines over solar cycles 18–23 are presented. Polar prominence branches will reach the poles at different epochs in cycle 23: the north branch at the beginning in 2002 and the south branch a year later (2003), respectively. The local maxima of intensities in the green line show both poleward- and equatorward-migrating branches. The poleward branches will reach the poles around cycle maxima like prominences, while the equatorward branches show a duration of 18 years and will end in cycle minima (2007). The red corona shows mostly equatorward branches. The possibility that these branches begin to develop at high latitudes in the preceding cycles cannot be excluded.

US and Russian policies and strategies in the Middle East: Iraq and Syria as a model

2019 ◽  
pp. 220
Author(s):  
Esraa Aladdin Noori ◽  
Nasser Zain AlAbidine Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Western World ◽  
International Conflicts ◽  
The South ◽  
The West ◽  
The North ◽  
East Region ◽  
Middle East Region

The Russian-American relations have undergone many stages of conflict and competition over cooperation that have left their mark on the international balance of power in the Middle East. The Iraqi and Syrian crises are a detailed development in the Middle East region. The Middle East region has allowed some regional and international conflicts to intensify, with the expansion of the geopolitical circle, which, if applied strategically to the Middle East region, covers the area between Afghanistan and East Asia, From the north to the Maghreb to the west and to the Sudan and the Greater Sahara to the south, its strategic importance will seem clear. It is the main lifeline of the Western world.

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