scholarly journals Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors in Long-term Alterations of the Volga River Runoff

2013 ◽  
pp. 4-19
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Volga River ◽  
Instrumental Observations ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Natural Climate

The contribution of natural climate and anthropogenic factors in the Volga river runoff changes at Volgograd during the period of instrumental observations (1882–2007). has been revealed. The estimates are based on two independent approaches. One of them is based on the restoration of the annual and seasonal runoff against the riversindicators’ regression dependencies, and the other one is based on the water use statistical data and methods of water balance. The calculations give the total Volga river annual runoff anthropogenic decrease values that are fairly close to each other.

scholarly journals Assessment of changes in the Viliya River runoff in the territory of Belarus

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 185-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander A. Volchak ◽  
Sergey I. Parfomuk
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Spring Runoff ◽  
Winter Runoff ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
Runoff Changes

AbstractThe research results of runoff changes in the River Viliya at 3 stations (Steshitsy Village, Vileyka Town and Mihalishki village) during the period 1946–2014 for the average annual, maximum, minimum summer-autumn and winter runoff are presented. It has been concluded that heterogeneity in the time series of the river runoff is caused by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. At Mihalishki Village the average annual runoff is about 59.7 m3 s–1, the maximum 1570 m3 s–1, minimum summer–autumn is 22.0 m3 s–1, the minimum winter runoff is 17.3 m3 s–1, and the environmental runoff is 21.1 m3 s–1. A forecast of runoff changes for the River Viliya, depending on forecasted climate change using the “Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections” was made on the basis of four scenarios RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. The results of research indicate that significant changes in runoff will not occur as the forecasted climatic parameters did not change significantly. A forecasted decrease in spring runoff was investigated, thus reducing the minimum runoff is not essential. In the event of possible low water periods the Vileyka reservoir resources, involving the Olkhovskoye and the Snigyanskoye water reservoirs, can be used for compensation measures, which may be considered as the most reliable backup source of industrial water supply for the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant.

INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES ON SEASONAL RUNOFF OF LARGE SIBERIAN RIVERS

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-47
Author(s):  
L. N. VASILEVSKAYA ◽  
◽  
I. A. LISINA ◽  
D. N. VASILEVSKII ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Indices ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Circulation Indices ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Kolyma River

Based on daily runoff volumes of four large Siberian rivers (the Ob, Yenisei, Lena, and Kolyma) for 1936-2018, the regime and changes in the total annual and seasonal runoff are analyzed. High synchronous and asynchronous correlations between monthly river runoff and atmospheric circulation indices of hemispheric and regional scales are revealed. In recent decades, the total annual runoff and its variations have increased (the rate of increase is most pronounced for the Kolyma River). A change in water content within a year is heterogeneous: weak positive trends are characteristic of the spring flood runoff and the summer-autumn period, and a significant increase occurred in the winter months. High correlations with a 1-8-month shift made it possible to identify the most informative regions, the atmospheric circulation over which makes a certain contribution to the variance of river runoff.

The «rainfall-runoff» system and its long-term fluctuations in the Siverskyi Donets River Basin (Ukraine)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Bolbot ◽  
Vasyl Grebin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Current Period

<p>The current patterns estimation of the water regime under climate change is one of the most urgent tasks in Ukraine and the world. Such changes are determined by fluctuations in the main climatic characteristics - precipitation and air temperature, which are defined the value of evaporation. These parameters influence on the annual runoff distribution and long-term runoff fluctuations. In particular, the annual precipitation redistribution is reflected in the corresponding changes in the river runoff.<br>The assessment of the current state and nature of changes in precipitation and river runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was made by comparing the current period (1991-2018) with the period of the climatological normal (1961-1990).<br>In general, for this area, it was defined the close relationship between the amount of precipitation and the annual runoff. Against the background of insignificant (about 1%) increase of annual precipitation in recent decades, it was revealed their redistribution by seasons and separate months. There is a decrease in precipitation in the cold period (November-February). This causes (along with other factors) a decrease in the amount of snow and, accordingly, the spring flood runoff. There are frequent cases of unexpressed spring floods of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. The runoff during March-April (the period of spring flood within the Ukrainian part of the basin) decreased by almost a third.<br>The increase of precipitation during May-June causes a corresponding (insignificant) increase in runoff in these months. The shift of the maximum monthly amount of precipitation from May (for the period 1961-1990) to June (in the current period) is observed.<br>There is a certain threat to water supply in the region due to the shift in the minimum monthly amount of precipitation in the warm period from October to August. Compared with October, there is a higher air temperature and, accordingly, higher evaporation in August, which reduces the runoff. Such a situation is solved by rational water resources management of the basin. The possibility of replenishing water resources in the basin through the transfer runoff from the Dnieper (Dnieper-Siverskyi Donets channel) and the annual runoff redistribution in the reservoir system causes some increase in the river runoff of summer months in recent decades. This is also contributed by the activities of the river basin management structures, which control the maintenance water users' of minimum ecological flow downstream the water intakes and hydraulic structures in the rivers of the basin.<br>Therefore, in the period of current climate change, the annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin has undergone significant changes, which is related to the annual precipitation redistribution and anthropogenic load on the basin.</p>

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE RIVER LINE OF THE OKA BASIN FOR THE COMING PERIOD OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE XXI CENTURY

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
G. Kh. Ismaiylov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Muraschenkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
The City

A retrospective analysis and assessment of long-term changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin over a long 131-year observation period (1881 / 1882–2011/2012) was performed. The changes in the annual distribution of the Oka river runoff over the seasons of the year (spring flood, summer-autumn and winter low water) from its annual value for the selected time periods (before and after 1976/1977) are considered. It has been noted that over the past decades, river runoff has been formed in new climatic conditions associated with global changes and, as a result, regional climate. The assessment of possible changes in the annual and seasonal runoff of the Oka River basin (to the final alignment – the city of Kaluga, with a basin area of 54,900 km2 ) in the first half of the 21st century is carried out. In assessing changes in the river flow of the Oka basin for the future period, the method of trends (trends) is used, based on the identification of cycles in fluctuations in hydrological characteristics and unidirectional trends (trends) inherent in individual phases (ups and downs) of these cycles, as well as to the establishment of functional (correlation) relationships between environmental factors (climatic, anthropogenic) and the nature of the response (river flow). In this case, the trend model serves as an alternative to the homogeneity hypothesis of long-term fluctuations in river flow. The change in the future values of the river flow of the Oka basin was estimated using averaged data of 30-year periods of time characterized by relative stationarity of climatic and hydrological conditions. The dynamics of the average 30-year values of the annual runoff in the upper reaches of the Oka River (the closure target is the city of Kaluga for the period 1881/1882–2011/2012) is considered. Possible forecasted mean annual values of the annual flow of the Oka River for the first half of the 21st century are obtained

scholarly journals RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF WATERNESS CHANGE IN THE DON RIVER

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 84-87
Author(s):  
G.Kh. Ismaiylov ◽  
◽  
N.V. Muraschenkova ◽  
I.G. Ismaiylova
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Water Medium ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Integral Curves ◽  
Don River ◽  
Seasonal Runoff

Water resources are one of the most important problems of our time. Population growth, industrial and agricultural development all over the world entail an ever-increasing demand for clean fresh water. These circumstances induce hydrologists to actively and thoroughly study the problem of studying water resources, changing their quantitative and qualitative characteristics in time and space, and the peculiarities of changes in the water regime of river runoff under conditions of climatic changes. In this work, we performed a retrospective analysis and assessment of changes in the water content of the Upper Don basin over a long 126-year period of hydrometric observational data (1881/1882–2006/2007). To study the change in the water content of the Upper Don River, we used the difference integral curves of the annual and seasonal (spring flood, summerautumn and winter low-water periods) runoff. Regularities of long-term cyclical fluctuations in the water content of the annual and seasonal runoff of the Upper Don are obtained. A retrospective analysis of long-term data of hydrometric observations made it possible to distinguish long phases of high-water, medium-water-content and low-water years on the differential integral curves of river runoff. Each phase, which is long in terms of water content, contains groups of years of shorter duration, for example, 2–3-year and 4–5-year phases of increased and decreased water content in a river. The analysis of the differential integral curves of the annual and seasonal runoff made it possible to establish that the long-term fluctuations in the annual runoff of the Upper Don are rhythmic, in contrast to the runoff of the spring flood, summer-autumn and winter low-water periods, which are characterized by a monotonic regime.

scholarly journals Assessment of Anthropogenic Factors Impact On Annual and Seasonal Runoff in the Belaya River Basin

2014 ◽  
pp. 119-126
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Hydrological Characteristics ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Anthropogenic Alterations

Research of the runoff hydrological characteristics anthropogenic alterations in the Belaya River basin has been conducted with statistical methods. Assessment of the economic activities impact on the annual runoff value and assessment of the ponds’role in the within-year runoff redistribution has been carried out.

scholarly journals Long-term Dynamics of Ammonia Nitrogen Content and Runoff in the muddle Amur Water

2015 ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Nitrogen Content ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Nitrate Nitrogen ◽  
Ammonia Nitrogen ◽  
Songhua River ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
The Songhua River

The long-term dynamic of the content and runoff of ammonia nitrogen in the water of the Middle Amur are discussed. There are decreasing of ammonia runoff in 1.4 times in comparison with 1981-2000, and dominance of nitrate nitrogen in runoff of mineral forms in recent years. Trends in runoff changes are due to transformation on the watershed. At present anthropogenic components of runoff is formed by the Songhua River runoff and is more pronounced in the wintertime.

scholarly journals MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF CHANGES IN RIVER RUNOFF IN A LONG-TERM SECTION ACROSS THE TERRITORY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-165
Author(s):  
A.M. Gareev ◽  
E.M. Galeeva ◽  
V.V. Barinov
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Southern Urals ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Southern Urals ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽  
Observation Series ◽  
The Republic

The article reveals the main characteristics of the change in the values of the river runoff layer indicator in the long-term section across the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan. In previously published works related to 1990-2000, the statistical parameters of river runoff are considered without taking into account the changes that have occurred in the general population of the initial information. It is noted in the article that the calculations and estimates for the study of the peculiarities of changes in hydrometeorological conditions, carried out by us in recent years, indicate a violation of the homogeneity of the observation series. At the same time, attention is drawn to the fact that this trend is dependent on the influence of factors associated with global climate change. The article indicates that ignoring the facts reflecting the ongoing changes can affect not only the accuracy of the calculations, but also lead to the adoption of incorrect and unjustified decisions in the water sector and the assessment of environmental conditions in watercourses. The analysis was carried out according to the values of the annual runoff layer, the change in the indicators of the annual runoff of the rivers of the republic was calculated for two time intervals. As the boundary conditions between them, the year was taken, from which a rather clear tendency of the trend change in terms of the annual runoff values is revealed. Cartographic analysis of the information obtained was carried out using the ArcGIS software package. It has been established that during the period of noticeable climatic changes in most of the territory of the republic, there is a tendency to an increase in the values of the annual runoff layer. At the same time, the greatest indicators of change occur on the western slopes of the Southern Urals and the Ufa plateau within the republic. It was found that a noticeable decrease in the values of the annual runoff layer is observed over the territory of the Bashkir Trans-Urals.

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 4219-4231
Author(s):  
Hongmei Xu ◽  
Lüliu Liu ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Sheng Wang ◽  
Ying Hao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Southern China ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Seasonal Runoff

Abstract. To quantify climate change impact and difference on basin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C, this study examined four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting. We analyzed projected climate change in four basins, quantified climate change impact on annual and seasonal runoff based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool, and estimated the uncertainty constrained by the global circulation model (GCM) structure and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). All statistics for the two river basins (the Shiyang River, SYR, and the Chaobai River, CBR) located in northern China indicated generally warmer and wetter conditions, whereas the two river basins (the Huaihe River, HHR, and the Fujiang River, FJR) located in southern China projected less warming and were inconsistent regarding annual precipitation change. The simulated changes in annual runoff were complex; however, there was no shift in seasonal runoff pattern. The 0.5 ∘C global warming difference resulted in 0.7 and 0.6 ∘C warming in basins in northern and southern China, respectively. This led to a projected precipitation increase by about 2 % for the four basins and to a decrease in simulated annual runoff of 8 % and 1 % in the SYR and the HHR, respectively, but to an increase of 4 % in the CBR and the FJR. The uncertainty in projected annual temperature was dominated by the GCMs or the RCPs; however, that of precipitation was constrained mainly by the GCMs. The 0.5 ∘C difference decreased the uncertainty in the annual precipitation projection and the annual and monthly runoff simulation.

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