scholarly journals Scenario modelling of the impact of the dynamics of public debt on the gross regional product of Russian regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
I. V. Naumov ◽  
N. L. Nikulina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Regional Product

The subject of this research is public debt and its impact on the dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP) of Russian regions. The aim of the paper is to study and scenario forecast the dynamics of changes in the internal public debt of Russian regions and model its impact on the gross regional product. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that most regions in Russia are forced to increase their internal public debt to cover the budget deficit and attract additional resources to solve important problems of socio-economic development and implement strategic projects and programs. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the development of a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the level of GRP of different groups of regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt using ARIMA modelling methods and panel regression analysis. The authors apply the methods of panel regression analysis and ARIMA modelling. The authors theoretically substantiated that public debt has a different effect on the GRP of Russian regions, grouped the regions according to the identified trends in the dynamics of public debt (the first group — regions with the dynamics of debt reduction over the period from 2005 to 2019, the second group — with the all-Russian trend of debt reduction since 2017, and the third group — with the dynamics of increasing debt over the period under review); developed a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the GRP level of the Russian regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt; carried out ARIMA forecasting of the dynamics of the public debt of different groups of regions and built regression models of the influence of the dynamics of the public debt on the GRP of Russian regions within the selected groups; formed forecast scenarios for changes of the GRP level of regions, taking into account the identified dynamics of transformation of their internal public debt. Conclusions: public debt has a negative impact on the dynamics of the GRP of Moscow and the Moscow region and a positive effect on the dynamics of the GRP of the regions of the second and third groups. The findings of the study may be used by the federal and regional executive authorities to find ways to reduce public debt and increase the level of socio-economic development of territories.

The economy of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug: On the path from monodependence to diversification

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 662-674
Author(s):  
S.G. Serikov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Statistical Analysis Methods

Subject. This article explores the changes in the economic development of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods. Objectives. The article aims to identify trends and features of the socio-economic development of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Methods. For the study, I used the comparative, computational, constructive, and statistical analysis methods. Results. The article reveals key factors in the growth of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug's gross regional product and the economic challenges to the region. As well, the article considers and proposes some possible options for further socio-economic development of the Okrug. Conclusions. The Okrug's current socio-economic problems are caused by not objective reasons only, but subjective factors, as well.

scholarly journals Explaining Patterns of Corruption in the Russian Regions

2005 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 500-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phyllis Dininio ◽  
Robert Orttung
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Size Of Government ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Transparency International ◽  
Russian State ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regional Product

Corruption is one of the key problems facing the Russian state as it seeks to evolve out of its socialist past. Naturally, regional patterns of corruption exist across a country as large and diverse as the Russian Federation. To explain these variations, the authors analyze 2002 data from Transparency International and the Information for Democracy Foundation that provide the first effort to measure differences in the incidence of corruption across forty Russian regions. They find that corruption in Russia is fueled by the size of government and by the level of development. Within each region, the amount of corruption increases as the number of bureaucrats grows and gross regional product per capita decreases. Russian policymakers can therefore work to reduce corruption by effectively reforming or scaling back bureaucracies and by encouraging economic development outside of the key centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

scholarly journals Public debt of Ukraine and its influence on main socio-economic indicators

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-10
Author(s):  
Sergii Stepanenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
The State ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
The Public ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
Public Debt Management

Introduction. Solving the problem of public debt management is one of the key factors of economic stability in the country. The budget capacity of the state and the stability of its national currency largely depend on the nature of the debt problem settlement. The need to address these issues requires finding ways to improve the mechanism of public debt management and servicing in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to study the public debt dynamics of Ukraine and model the nature of its impact on key socio-economic indicators in modern conditions. Results. The dynamics and structure of the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the period 2013-2019 are analyzed. The negative dynamics of the growth of the total amount of debt during 2014-2018 is determined. In 2019, the total amount of debt in hryvnia decreased due to the reduction of external and guaranteed debt, but in dollar terms increased, which threatens the financial stability of the country. Using the software product EViews 10 based on the Granger causality test, the system of causal relationships between the dynamics of public debt (index) and indicators of socio-economic development: GDP growth rate, industrial production index, real income index, employment index, the index of exports of goods and services, the index of imports of goods and services has been researched. On the basis of the established causal relations the autoregressive influence models of the public debt dynamics on indicators of social and economic development are constructed, on which the error does not exceed 5%. Conclusions. According to the results of the constructed models, the negative impact of public debt on the main socio-economic indicators is determined, which is confirmed by the negative values of the elasticity indexes of socio-economic indicators. The built models serve as a preventive tool of public debt management, with the help of which it is possible to promptly respond to threats to socio-economic development by monitoring the level of public debt dynamics. Key words: public debt, public debt management, socio-economic development, financial security of the state.

scholarly journals DISCUSSION QUESTIONS OF ESSENCE OFTHE PUBLIC DEBT RISKS AND PROBLEMS OF THEIR EVALUATION IN UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
Nadiia LUBKEY
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
The Public ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Country Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approaches

Introduction. The significant and constantly increasing volume of public debt of Ukraine, its irrational structure, inefficient use of borrowed government loans lead to growth of debt risks and decrease of the state debt sustainability. For a successful debt management we need to apply effective risk management ofpublic debt. Purpose. The aim of this research is to clarify the essence of the public debt risk; to analyze the methodological approaches to their evaluation; to determine the main directions for the risk management of public debt, as well as the ways to improve the current methodology forassessing public debt risk in Ukraine. Results. Based on studies of different approaches to interpreting the essence ofthe public debt risk we have established that risk of public debt caused by the presence ofthe probability the formation of such debt parameters that may have significant negative impact on the socio-economic development ofthe country. Analysis ofthe main approaches to assessing of public debt risks revealed a number of shortcomings in current Ukrainian methodology. The main directions ofpublic debt risk management are: managing the risks associated with large amounts of public debt; debt management risks caused by irrational structure of public debt; managing the risks associated with the rapid growth of the public debt; risk management related to the inefficient use ofgovernment loans. Conclusion. The current methodology for assessing the risks associated with debt management used in Ukraine needs to be improved. In our opinion such methodologies must necessarily contain the indicators of effectiveness of government borrowing.

Assessing the impact of infrastructure on the social and economic development of Russian regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 792-809
Author(s):  
Al'bert G. MNATSAKANYAN ◽  
Sedrak SARGSYAN
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Development Objectives ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Subject. We present the analysis of theoretical and practical aspects of the impact of infrastructure on socio-economic development. Objectives. The aim of the study is to review theoretical and empirical aspects of relationship between the condition of infrastructure and the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. Methods. The study draws on comparative and logical analysis of theoretical foundations and conclusions published in scientific sources, as well as methods of mathematical and statistical analysis. Results. The statistical measurement of relationship between the condition of infrastructure and the determinants of economic growth yielded results that run counter to the findings in academic literature. While we reveal a significant positive correlation between the level of transport and energy infrastructure development with the gross regional product per capita, the variables that characterize the state of telecommunications and social infrastructure have little or no connection with this indicator of the Russian regions’ development. Conclusions. Several variables are not enough to assess the impact of infrastructure on socio-economic development. For this reason, the model of infrastructure impact assessment requires further improvement.

scholarly journals The regions of Russia: specifics of socio-economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tat’yana Pozdnyakova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regional Product

The Federal District, as the highest link in the economic zoning of the Russian Federation, is the most important element of the national economic system, which largely determines the features of its functioning. The article provides an overview of the internal differences of the federal districts of the Russian Federation in terms of gross regional product. This indicator is one of the most important indicators of the specificity of the socio-economic development of the regions, and also, to a certain extent, reflects the possibility of their balanced functioning. Based on the official data presented on the website of the Federal State Statistics Service, the federal districts of Russia were ranked according to the indicator under study and their typology was presented. Within the framework of this typology, groups are identified that reflect the differences between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the distribution of gross regional product per capita in federal districts with its value above or below the average Russian level, respectively. Within each federal district, entities with maximum and minimum values of gross regional product per capita were identified. On this basis, an intra-district imbalance coefficient is calculated, reflecting the degree of the gap in the levels of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation within the corresponding federal district. A brief description of the federal districts belonging to two different types is given in terms of the balance of their socio-economic development. The general trend of dependence of the coefficient of intra-district imbalance on the level of regional development is shown. There are some features that need to be taken into account when formulating development programmes and strategies at the federal district gape.

Transformation of the economy of Ukrainian cities of regional significance: efficiency of the impact on the socio-economic developmen

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-74
Author(s):  
Mariana Melnyk ◽  
Iryna Leshchukh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Direct Foreign Investment ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Impact

The paper proposes a methodological approach to evaluating the impact of the transformation taking place in the economies of cities of regional significance (CRSs) on the socio-economic development of regions (oblasts). The analysis is conducted for cities of regional significance in the western part of Ukraine. The article emphasizes the asymmetry of regional socio-economic development as a result of the concentration of business activity and capital in the CRSs, a higher level of reception of growing direct foreign investment in the economies of CRSs compared to capital investment; a strong impact of structural changes in the economies of CRS on the Gross Regional Product (GRP). The authors found that the development of most CRSs was based on industrial production. Only half of the oblasts in Western Ukraine analyzed in the study showed evidence indicating that economies of their CRSs are undergoing a transformation towards service economy (which should correspond to the post-industrial development of the country).

scholarly journals STRATEGIC VECTOR OF RUSSIAN REGIONS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 230 (4) ◽  
pp. 454-460
Author(s):  
O.B. MIZYAKINA ◽  
◽  
T.V. MURAVLEVA ◽  
T.L. MYAGKOVA ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Strategic Goals ◽  
Regional Product

This article is about the economy of the regions. At the same time, the emphasis in the formation of the strategy of the regions is placed on the legislative basis and analysis of basic indicators, including the SWOT analysis, the level of gross regional product, average wages, etc. The author not only introduces the strategic goals and priorities of the region's development, but also proposes to supplement and expand the existing strategy in several directions.

Financial Systems and economic Development in the Russian Regions: A Comparative Analysis

2015 ◽  
pp. 94-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Krinichansky
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Growth Mechanisms ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The paper identifies and assesses the closeness of the connection between incremental indicators of the financial development in the regions of Russia with the incremental regional GDP and the investment in fixed capital. It is shown that the positioning of the region as an independent participant of public debt market matters: the regional GDP and investment in fixed capital grow more rapidly in the regions which are regularly borrowing on the sub-federal bonds market. The paper also demonstrates that the poorly developed financial system in some regions have caused the imperfection of the growth mechanisms since the economy is not able to use the financial system’s functions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document