scholarly journals Decision Rule Induction: Relieving Complexity in Detecting Defection

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 3119-3123
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Rule Induction ◽  
Telecom Service ◽  
Customer Attrition

Customer attrition has become a serious problem globally, particularly in telecom service, resulting into substantial revenue decline. Attrition may result in accumulation ofdues as a resultof payment defaults.Proactive identification of potential attrite will help in retention as well as minimizing loss of revenue.For attrition detection many robust but complex algorithms are used. Depending on the severity of error, the complexity can be lessened and thus cost. Two methods of decision rules (1R& C5.0) are used to predict the attrition and predictive accuracy is judged withconfusion matrix. Comparison between models is made by sensitivity and specificity. It was found that 1R has a sensitivity of .60 against .69 for C5.0 and hence, the performance is not significantly different. It is suggested that 1R could be used instead of more complex algorithmsand also it can be adopted for benchmarking

scholarly journals Hospital profiling using Bayesian decision theory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Hengelbrock ◽  
Johannes Rauh ◽  
Jona Cederbaum ◽  
Maximilian Kaehler ◽  
Michael Hoehle
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
External Reporting

Background For evaluating the quality of care provided by hospitals, special interest lies in the identification of performance outliers. We study a setting where the decision to classify hospitals as performance outliers or non-outliers is based on the observed result of a single binary quality indicator. Methods We propose to embed the classification of providers into a Bayesian decision theoretical framework which enables the derivation of optimal decision rules with respect to the expected decision consequences. We argue that these consequences depend upon for which pathway to quality improvement the profiling of hospitals takes place. We propose paradigmatic utility functions for the two pathways external reporting and change in care delivery and compare the resulting optimal decision rules with regard to their threshold values, sensitivity and specificity. We further apply them to the area of hip replacement surgeries, for which we re-evaluate hospital performances for five quality indicators in Germany during 2017. Results Based on the utilities we assigned to the classification decisions, the decision rule for change in care delivery classifies more high-volume providers as outliers compared to the decision rule for external reporting, with consequences for both sensitivity and specificity. The re-evaluation of the five quality indicators illustrates that classification decisions are highly dependent upon the underlying utilities. Conclusion Analyzing the classification of hospitals as a decision theoretic problem and considering pathway-specific consequences of decisions can help to derive an appropriate decision rule. Contrasting decision rules with regard to their underlying assumptions about the utilities of classification consequences can be helpful to make implicit assumptions transparent and justifiable.

Role of Robustness Measure in Rule Induction

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 580-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Motoyuki Ohki ◽  
◽  
Eiji Sekiya ◽  
Masahiro Inuiguchi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Rough Set ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Rule Induction ◽  
Evaluation Index ◽  
Design Knowledge ◽  
Robustness Measure ◽  
New Type

Rough set approaches provide useful tools to induce minimal decision rules from given data. Acquired minimal rules are typically used to build a classifier. However, minimal rules are sometimes used for design knowledge. Specifically, if a new object is designed to satisfy the condition of a minimal rule, it can be classified into a class suggested by the rule. Although we are interested in the goodness of the set of obtained minimal decision rules for the purpose of building a classifier, we are more interested in the goodness of an individual minimal decision rule for design knowledge. In this study, we propose robustness measures as a new type of evaluation index for decision rules. The measure evaluates the extent to which interestingness is preserved after the some conditions are removed. Four numerical experiments are conducted to examine the usefulness of robusetness measures. Decision rules selected by robustness scores are compared with those selected by recall, which is the well-known measure to select good rules. Our results reveal that a different aspect of the goodness of a rule is evaluated by the robustness measure and thus, the robustness measure acts as an independent and complementary index of recall.

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Decision Rule Selection

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Party System ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Survival Of The Fittest

This chapter extends the survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary environment to consider the possibility that new political parties, when they first come into existence, do not pick decision rules at random but instead choose rules that have a track record of past success. This is done by adding replicator-mutator dynamics to the model, according to which the probability that each rule is selected by a new party is an evolving but noisy function of that rule's past performance. Estimating characteristic outputs when this type of positive feedback enters the dynamic model creates new methodological challenges. The simulation results show that it is very rare for one decision rule to drive out all others over the long run. While the diversity of decision rules used by party leaders is drastically reduced with such positive feedback in the party system, and while some particular decision rule is typically prominent over a certain period of time, party systems in which party leaders use different decision rules are sustained over substantial periods.

Endogenous Parties, Interaction of Different Decision Rules

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Competitive Environment ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Robert Axelrod

This chapter attempts to develop more realistic and interesting models in which the set of competing parties is a completely endogenous output of the process of party competition. It also seeks to model party competition when different party leaders use different decision rules in the same setting by building on an approach pioneered in a different context by Robert Axelrod. This involves long-running computer “tournaments” that allow investigation of the performance and “robustness” of decision rules in an environment where any politician using any rule may encounter an opponent using either the same decision rule or some quite different rule. The chapter is most interested in how a decision rule performs against anything the competitive environment might throw against it, including agents using decision rules that are difficult to anticipate and/or comprehend.

scholarly journals Rats show direct reciprocity when interacting with multiple partners

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Kettler ◽  
Manon K. Schweinfurth ◽  
Michael Taborsky
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Prisoner's Dilemma ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Prisoner’S Dilemma ◽  
Cognitive Demands ◽  
Multiple Partners ◽  
Norway Rats

AbstractDirect reciprocity, where individuals apply the decision rule ‘help someone who has helped you’, is believed to be rare in non-human animals due to its high cognitive demands. Especially if previous encounters with several partners need to be correctly remembered, animals might either stop reciprocating favours previously received from an individual, or switch to the simpler generalized reciprocity mechanism. Here we tested the decision rules Norway rats apply when interacting with multiple partners before being able to return received help. In a sequential prisoner’s dilemma situation, focal subjects encountered four different partners that were either helpful or not, on four consecutive days. On the fifth day, the focal subject was paired with one of the previous four partners and given the opportunity to provide it with food. The focal rats returned received help by closely matching the quantity of help their partner had previously provided, independently of the time delay between received and given help, and independently of the ultimate interaction preceding the test. This shows that direct reciprocity is not limited to dyadic situations in Norway rats, suggesting that cognitive demands involved in applying the required decision rules can be met by non-human animals even when they interact with multiple partners differing in helping propensity.

Decision rules, escalation of commitment and sensitivity to framing in group decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1649-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petru Lucian Curseu ◽  
Sandra G. L. Schruijer ◽  
Oana Catalina Fodor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the influence of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to framing effect (FE) and escalation of commitment (EOC). Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study (using a sample of 233 professionals with project management experience), the authors test the effects of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to EOC and FE. The authors use four group decision-making tasks to evaluate decision consistency across gain/loss framed decision situations and six decision tasks to evaluate EOC for money as well as time as resources previously invested in the initial decisions. Findings – The results show that the collaborative decision rule increases sensitivity to EOC when financial resources are involved and decreases sensitivity to EOC when time is of essence. Moreover, the authors show that the collaborative decision rule decreases sensitivity to FE in group decision making. Research limitations/implications – The results have important implications for group rationality as an emergent group level competence by extending the insights concerning the impact of decision rules on emergent group level cognitive competencies. Due to the experimental nature of the design, the authors can probe the causal relations between the investigated variables, yet the authors cannot generalize the results to other settings. Practical implications – Managers can use the insights of this study in order to optimize the functioning of decision-making groups and to reduce their sensitivity to FEs and EOC. Originality/value – The study extends the research on group rationality and it is one of the few experimental attempts used to understand the role of decision rules on emergent group level rationality.

scholarly journals Interpolation of multidimensional signals using the reduction of the dimension of parametric spaces of decision rules

2019 ◽  
pp. 31-40
Author(s):  
M V Gashnikov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Compression Method ◽  
Parametric Space ◽  
Archive File ◽  
Multidimensional Signals ◽  
Reduced Dimension ◽  
Hierarchical Compression ◽  
Adaptive Interpolator

In this paper, we consider the interpolation of multidimensional signals problem. We develop adaptive interpolators that select the most appropriate interpolating function at each signal point. Parameterized decision rule selects the interpolating function based on local features at each signal point. We optimize the adaptive interpolator in the parameter space of this decision rule. For solving this optimization problem, we reduce the dimension of the parametric space of the decision rule. Dimension reduction is based on the parameterization of the ratio between local differences at each signal point. Then we optimize the adaptive interpolator in parametric space of reduced dimension. Computational experiments to investigate the effectiveness of an adaptive interpolator are conducted using real-world multidimensional signals. The proposed adaptive interpolator used as a part of the hierarchical compression method showed a gain of up to 51% in the size of the archive file compared to the smoothing interpolator.

Sensitivity and specificity of Sirius indices in diagnosis of keratoconus and suspect keratoconus

2021 ◽  
pp. 112067212110601
Author(s):  
Abdelrahman Salman ◽  
Taym Darwish ◽  
Ali Ali ◽  
Marwan Ghabra ◽  
Rafea Shaaban
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Corneal Thickness ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Symmetry Index ◽  
Case Series Study ◽  
Receiver Operating

Aim To estimate the sensitivity and specificity of topographic and tomographic corneal parameters as determined by Sirius (CSO, Florence, Italy) in discriminating keratoconus (KC) and suspect keratoconus from normal cornea. Method In this retrospective case-series study, keratoconus screening indices were measured using Sirius tomographer. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to determine the test's overall predictive accuracy (area under the curve) and to identify optimal cut-off points to maximize sensitivity and specificity in differentiating keratoconus and suspect keratoconus from normal corneas. Results Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analyses showed high predictive accuracy for Symmetry Index back (SIb), Keratoconus Vertex front (KVf), Symmetry Index front (SIf), Keratoconus Vertex back (KVb), Apex Keratometry (Curve-Apex) and Minimum corneal Thickness (ThkMin) to distinguish keratoconus from normal (area under the curve > 0.9, all). Symmetry Index back was identified as the best diagnostic parameter for detecting suspect keratoconus with AUC of 0.86. Highest specificity to detect keratoconus and suspect keratoconus was seen for SIb, 99.87% and 84.66%, respectively. These values were associated with optimal cut-off points of 0.46 D for keratoconus and 0.12 D for suspect keratoconus. Conclusion Sirius parameters evaluated in the study were effective to differentiate keratoconus from normal corneas. However, Symmetry Index back was the index with the highest ability to detect suspect keratoconus.

Genetically Modified Crops

2021 ◽  
pp. 112-133
Author(s):  
Alasdair R. Young
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Member State ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Genetically Modified ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Genetically Modified Crops ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Governments ◽  
The Eu

This chapter presents the EU’s responses with respect to three closely related policies: the approval of genetically modified (GM) crops for sale and (separately) for cultivation and efforts to lift member state bans on EU-approved GM varieties. These most similar cases differ in outcome; with the EU resuming approvals for sale (a change sufficient to placate Argentina and Canada, but not the United States), but not for cultivation and failing to address member state bans despite very permissive decision rules. In these cases, no tariffs were threatened and there was no exporter mobilization. Commission trade officials did push to accelerate approvals. The Commission, which was more favorably disposed toward biotechnology than most of the member states, was able, with the help of very a permissive decision rule, to overcome opposition to approvals for sale, but not for cultivation, reflecting greater concern among regulators about the environmental impacts of GM cultivation than about the safety of GM varieties. The member state governments also balked at forcing their peers to change their policies. There is little evidence that the WTO’s adverse ruling affected any of the protagonists’ preferences.

scholarly journals Using Accelerometers in Youth Physical Activity Studies: A Review of Methods

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelli L. Cain ◽  
James F. Sallis ◽  
Terry L. Conway ◽  
Delfien Van Dyck ◽  
Lynn Calhoon
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Moderate Intensity ◽  
Accelerometer Data ◽  
Cut Points ◽  
Moderate Intensity Physical Activity ◽  
Youth Physical Activity ◽  
Intensity Physical Activity ◽  
Over Time

Background:In 2005, investigators convened by the National Cancer Institute recommended development of standardized protocols for accelerometer use and reporting decision rules in articles. A literature review was conducted to document accelerometer methods and decision rule reporting in youth physical activity articles from 2005−2010.Methods:Nine electronic databases identified 273 articles that measured physical activity and/or sedentary behavior using the most-used brand of accelerometer (ActiGraph). Six key methods were summarized by age group (preschool, children, and adolescents) and trends over time were examined.Results:Studies using accelerometers more than doubled from 2005−2010. Methods included 2 ActiGraph models, 6 epoch lengths, 6 nonwear definitions, 13 valid day definitions, 8 minimum wearing day thresholds, 12 moderate-intensity physical activity cut points, and 11 sedentary cut points. Child studies showed the most variation in methods and a trend toward more variability in cut points over time. Decision rule reporting improved, but only 54% of papers reported on all methods.Conclusion:The increasing diversity of methods used to process and score accelerometer data for youth precludes comparison of results across studies. Decision rule reporting is inconsistent, and trends indicate declining standardization of methods. A methodological research agenda and consensus process are proposed.

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