scholarly journals Poder, incerteza e heurísticas: contribuições da psicologia cognitiva para o estudo da tomada de decisões nas Relações Internacionais

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-384
Author(s):  
Bruno Maciel Santos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ecological Rationality ◽  
Formal Concept ◽  
Power Relationships ◽  
Decision Heuristics ◽  
The Many ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Shed Light

A falta de consenso sobre uma definição de poder e sobre como lidar com a incerteza nas Relações Internacionais são problemas antigos nessa disciplina. Este artigo apresenta algumas contribuições da psicologia cognitiva relacionadas ao uso de heurísticas decisórias para as discussões acerca do conceito de poder e relacionadas à incerteza no campo das Relações Internacionais. Para tanto, realiza-se uma revisão das visões divergentes acerca do conceito do poder e da incerteza entre os três paradigmas mais influentes nas Relações Internacionais, apresentando como cada um deles define esses dois conceitos e quais as implicações teóricas dessas visões. Apesar de várias definições operacionais, é possível que o conceito formal de poder apresentado por Dahl (1957) seja utilizado como referência para as quatro faces do poder apresentadas. No entanto, essa definição implica necessariamente algum grau de incerteza nas relações de poder, relacionadas à informação, seja pela sua disponibilidade, pela sua confiabilidade, pela ambiguidade ou pela sua subjetividade. Sendo assim, apresenta-se as heurísticas decisórias como forma de lidar com a tomada de decisão em situações de incerteza envolvendo relações de poder, a partir de uma racionalidade circunscrita e ecológica. Essa abordagem é uma, dentre várias possíveis, e não busca impor termos absolutos para a discussão, nem negar as várias contribuições teóricas feitas pelas demais abordagens discutidas, mas sim destacar alguns pontos negligenciados e apresentar novas possibilidades de análise no campo das Relações Internacionais.     Abstract: The lack of agreement about a definition of power and how to deal with uncertainty in the International Relations are long known problems of the discipline. This article presents some contributions from cognitive psychology related to the use of decision heuristics to the discussions about the concept of power and related to uncertainty in the field of International Relations. For this, it revises the different visions about the concept of power and uncertainty among the three most influential paradigms in International Relations, presenting how each one of them defines these two concepts and what are the theoretical implications for these visions. Despite the many operational definitions, it is possible that the formal concept provided by Dahl (1957) be taken as a reference for the four faces of power presented here. Nonetheless, this definition necessarily embeds some degree of uncertainty in power relations as a matter of information, be it because of its availability, its reliability, its ambiguity or its subjectivity. In this sense, decision heuristics are presented as a way to deal with decision-making under uncertainty related to power relationships, from a bounded and ecological rationality perspective. This approach is just one, among many, and does not seek to impose absolute terms to the discussion, nor denies the many theoretical contributions made by the other approaches discussed here, but points out new possibilities for analysis and shed light to neglected terms for debate in the field of International Relations. Keywords: Power; Uncertainty; Decision-Making; Bounded Rationality; International Relations Theories.     Recebido em: outubro/2018. Aprovado em: junho/2019.

Assessing Uzbekistan’s and Tajikistan’s Afghan Policy

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-132
Author(s):  
Marlene Laruelle
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Knowledge Production ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
The Other ◽  
Domestic Policies ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Silk Road

The interaction between Central Asia and Afghanistan is conventionally discussed either from the perspective of spillovers or from the other side of the coin, namely economic cooperation around the slogan of reviving the Silk Road. Yet, for a better grasp of Central Asia’s position on the Afghan question, it is necessary to shift the perspective of analysis from international relations to domestic policies. This article aims to decipher the many internal drivers that shape Uzbek and Tajik policies toward and perceptions of Afghanistan. Understanding decision-making mechanisms and the legitimacy of the authorities, identifying elite groups and their connection to their Afghan counterparts, and grasping the process of knowledge production, all help to better understand how Afghanistan’s neighbors shape their policy.

The Ecological Rationality of Situations

2019 ◽  
pp. 142-158
Author(s):  
Peter M. Todd ◽  
Gerd Gigerenzer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Program ◽  
Behavioral Outcomes ◽  
Ecological Rationality ◽  
Decision Heuristics ◽  
Situation Theory ◽  
Personality Differences ◽  
Individual Personality ◽  
Precise Mapping ◽  
Adaptive Toolbox

The study of situations involves asking how people behave in particular environmental settings, often in terms of their individual personality differences. The ecological rationality research program explains people’s behavior in terms of the specific decision-making tools they select and use from their mind’s adaptive toolbox when faced with specific types of environment structure. These two approaches can be integrated to provide a more precise mapping from features of situation structure to decision heuristics used and behavioral outcomes. This chapter presents three examples illustrating research on ecological rationality and its foundations, along with initial directions for incorporating it into an integrated situation theory.

scholarly journals ‘Inaccurate but Truthful’: Q&A with Screenwriter Peter Morgan

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. R1-R15
Author(s):  
Julia Lajta-Novak ◽  
Werner Huber
Keyword(s):  
Life Writing ◽  
The Other ◽  
Structure Approach ◽  
University Of Vienna ◽  
Ludwig Boltzmann ◽  
Lecture Series ◽  
The Many ◽  
The University ◽  
Film Making ◽  
Shed Light

In the spring of 2014, the University of Vienna in cooperation with the Ludwig Boltzmann institute for the history and Theory of Biography in Vienna organised an interdisciplinary lecture series “The Many faces of Biography”. This lecture series brought together scholars and practitioners of various historical and recent biographical forms, focusing on the specificities and challenges posed by different biographical media. One of them was Peter Morgan, a major name in contemporary biographical film-making (and playwriting), noted for his characteristic dual-structure approach to writing lives for the screen. During one of the sessions of the lecture series he was interviewed by Julia Novak and Werner Huber about some of his most famous work, such as The Deal (2003), The Queen (2006), Frost/Nixon (2008), The Other Boleyn Girl (2008), and Rush (2013). In this Q&A he shed light on the principles guiding the screenwriter-biographer’s work, his conflicting responsibilities towards biographee and audience, and the biopic’s potential to impact on the fame and after-fame of historical and contemporary celebrities. This article was submitted to the European Journal of Life Writing on 28 Februay 2015 and published on 6 July 2015. A second version of this article was uploaded, with one minor alteration, on 12 August 2015.

scholarly journals Le Canada et le régime international de l’aide

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Thérien
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
National Level ◽  
International Aid ◽  
International Community ◽  
Power Relationships ◽  
External Pressures ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
Systemic Level ◽  
Le Canada

This article examines the conditions of production for Canadian policy in development and. Traditionally, analysis of Canadian aid has followed either a pluralistic, statist or neo-marxist theoretical approach. Noting the inadequacy of these forms of explanation, the author proposes an interpretation of Canadian aid based on the concept of « international community. » This concept can be defined as being the totality of decision-making principles, norms, rules and procedures that structure the expectations and behaviours of those involved in areas dealing with international relations. By resorting to this notion of international community, this study intends to demonstrate that the conditions of production for Canadian aid encompass two kinds of determinism. First, on the systemic level Canadian policy can be perceived as the result of external pressures to put in place an international aid community that contributes to regulating North-South relations. Second, on the national level Canadian aid can be seen as the product of internal power relationships which translate into pressures on the State to modify its participation in the international aid community so as to ensure the promotion of specific political interests.

scholarly journals What’s the Context? Implicit and Explicit Assumptions in Model-Based Goal Recognition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peta Masters ◽  
Mor Vered
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intelligent Decision Making ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Intelligent Decision ◽  
Goal Recognition ◽  
The Many ◽  
Implicit And Explicit ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Made In

Every model involves assumptions. While some are standard to all models that simulate intelligent decision-making (e.g., discrete/continuous, static/dynamic), goal recognition is well known also to involve choices about the observed agent: is it aware of being observed? cooperative or adversarial? In this paper, we examine not only these but the many other assumptions made in the context of model-based goal recognition. By exploring their meaning, the relationships between them and the confusions that can arise, we demonstrate their importance, shed light on the way trends emerge in AI, and suggest a novel means for researchers to uncover suitable avenues for future work.

Notes from the Trenches

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Wendell Moller
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
Medical Providers ◽  
Comfort Zone ◽  
Social Situations ◽  
Medical Provider ◽  
Collaborative Decision Making ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Many ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Being in the trenches with patients and other caregivers while working collaboratively toward a patient’s goals is a fantastic experience. However, it is equally important to be cognizant of the many difficulties to be encountered while working in the trenches. When caring for patients who are marginalized, the highs and lows of being a medical provider for this population can be extreme because of the circumstances surrounding both their medical and social situations. Practicing principles of collaborative decision-making, along with seeking to understand and empathize with others, serves to complement the other tools that are required to navigate this profession successfully. Educating the next generation of medical providers on how to step out of their comfort zone and engage a diversified population of patients will ensure that patients have providers who are willing to be in the trenches with them for the days to come.

Rough Set Model in Incomplete Decision Systems

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1221-1231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thinh Cao ◽  
Koichi Yamada ◽  
Muneyuki Unehara ◽  
Izumi Suzuki ◽  
Do Van Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information System ◽  
Missing Data ◽  
Rough Set ◽  
Information Loss ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Systems ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Quantitative Indicators

The paper introduces a rough set model to analyze an information system in which some conditions and decision data are missing. Many studies have focused on missing condition data, but very few have accounted for missing decision data. Common approaches tend to remove objects with missing decision data because such objects are apparently considered worthless from the perspective of decision-making. However, we indicate that this removal may lead to information loss. Our method retains such objects with missing decision data. We observe that a scenario involving missing decision data is somewhat similar to the situation of semi-supervised learning, because some objects are characterized by complete decision data whereas others are not. This leads us to the idea of estimating potential candidates for the missing data using the available data. These potential candidates are determined by two quantitative indicators: local decision probability and universal decision probability. These potential candidates allow us to define set approximations and the definition of reduct. We also compare the reducts and rules induced from two information systems: one removes objects with missing decision data and the other retains such objects. We highlight that the knowledge induced from the former can be induced from the latter using our approach. Thus, our method offers a more generalized approach to handle missing decision data and prevents information loss.

Ageing Accidents: Suggestion for a Definition and Examples From Damaged Platforms

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Ersdal ◽  
John Sharp ◽  
David Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Failure Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Offshore Installations ◽  
Structural Failures ◽  
The Many ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Structural Engineers

An increasing number of offshore installations are in the life extension stage of life, resulting in a growing concern among structural engineers about ageing related issues. However, structural engineers are often asked if there is experience of any ageing accidents or if there are examples of such. A safety conscious person would then reply that theory points towards a growing failure rate and hence that ageing accidents will eventually occur. Good engineering practice would then imply that there is no point in waiting for the accident to occur. As responsible engineers we should investigate the hazards and avoid accidents without having to wait for a potentially fatal accident to lead to action. The other possible answer is to question the term “ageing accident”. What is the definition of an “ageing accident”? This paper will investigate into the term “ageing accident” and will propose a definition of this term. Further, this paper will describe some examples of ageing accidents, in particular the many structural failures that have occurred in the Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.

scholarly journals Swot Analysis Implemented With Fuzzy Inference to Support Decision Making

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 712-734
Author(s):  
Enyleide Lima ◽  
Manoel Henrique Reis Nascimento ◽  
David Barbosa de Alencar ◽  
Mauro Reis Nascimento ◽  
José Roberto Lira Pinto Júnior ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Swot Matrix ◽  
The Many ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Inference Methods

Current market conditions require organizations to understand the business environment in order to achieve strategic planning and decision-making processes. An organization's competitive advantage is associated with an understanding of how to determine the potential of these companies when examining internal and external conditions (insertions) and the effort to meet customer needs. Among the many tools that contribute to this understanding, the SWOT analysis stands out, which can assist organizations to better understand the internal and external environment and formulate strategic plans in a collaborative way. This work aimed to implement an evaluation model for SWOT analysis using fuzzy inference methods. The adopted methodology started from a survey on the internal and external characteristics of the organization, definition of the linguistic criteria of the SWOT matrix, correlation between the variables found and elaboration of the fuzzy inference system for crossing the inputs. The approach proposed by the Fuzzy Inference model for the SWOT matrix proved to be simplified and efficient for a better collection of information that allows the prediction of the future environment, enabling reasoned strategies resulting from the model presented.

scholarly journals A Review of the Criminal Procedure System and its Causes A Model Study on the Arab Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 192-233
Author(s):  
Muhammad Laeba ◽  
Mohamed Ibrahim Negasi ◽  
Mohammed Salem Sultan Hariz
Keyword(s):  
Arab Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Res Judicata ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Legal Nature ◽  
Judicial Ruling ◽  
Descriptive Approach ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Right ◽  
Shed Light

Reconsideration is one of the methods of extraordinary objection to the final judgments, i.e. those that have acquired the authority of the res judicata and become unobjectionable by appeal or cassation, and it is one of the regular means granted to litigants by virtue of which they can file a lawsuit for the damage they have suffered as a result of a judgment or decision. In their interest, and in this sense, it is a license granted by the system to the litigants to show the defects of the judgment issued in the case and to demand the competent judiciary to cancel it or amend it in a way that removes its defects. Some laws and regulations in Arab countries call it reconsideration, others petition, and the other retrial. With these different names, it became clear to the researcher, after studying these means, especially in the statutory reasons and justifications that their existence requires to object accordingly to reconsider a decision or a judicial ruling issued in the interest of the objector to obtain a decision or a judicial ruling in his favor, and he found that there is a problem in some of them, which It lies in the fact that only the litigants have the right to use it, so no objection is accepted from another person who is not a party to the lawsuit. Therefore, the researcher in this study will shed light on it through the use of the inductive and descriptive approach in order to show its importance in achieving judicial justice, which guarantees the litigants to resolve the dispute between them by reconsidering the final ruling, in order to arrive at a new ruling that expresses the desired truth, and he divided it into two sections, The first is a definition of the concept of reviewing the system of criminal procedures and its legal nature, and the second of the reasons for which litigants may request a review of the system of criminal procedures based on the final rulings and the legal nature of these reasons.

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